基于“订单农业+期货”模型发展新疆棉花产业分析

传统的小农户生产方式严重阻碍了新疆棉花产业的发展,而现代农业的快速发展与利用期货市场是分不开的。本文探讨涉棉企业通过订单农业,打破小农户的生产方式,将小农户与涉棉企业的利益联系起来,并通过涉棉企业利用期货市场交易的优势来发展新疆棉花产业。     

The Danish Agro Machinery Industry in a Global Perspective, 1945–2005

Abstract

Since the mid-nineteenth century, agriculture and the agro machinery industry has formed an integral part of the developed world, dominated by North America and Western Europe. After the Second World War, agricultural industrialization speeded up. Millions of small and mixed farms in the West disappeared to be replaced by large-scale and specialized farming. The technology needed to transform agriculture was supplied by an expanding agro machinery industry. As in other fields of industry, the agro machinery industry turned into an international business. By the turn of the twentieth century, farming and industry took an even bigger step as business and technology were being globalized. The agro machinery industry that served these global markets remained in the West, however. Eventually, transatlantic mergers consolidated firms into industries for plant, dairy and pig and poultry farming equipment. This article discusses how the Danish agro machinery increasingly became an integrated part of international and global developments.     

Unlocking Productive Entrepreneurship in Africa's Least Developed Countries*

Abstract: In Africa's least developed countries (LDCs), escape from poverty and convergence to living standards of more advanced economies depends critically on structural transformation and the emergence of productive entrepreneurship that would accelerate growth and job creation. So far, however, subsistence agriculture has been the main source of employment in these countries, while a dynamic private sector in industry or high value‐added services has remained elusive. Utilizing the flow approach to labor markets, this paper complements the empirical literature and numerous surveys on small and medium enterprise (SME) constraints and develops a theoretical framework that examines the main obstacles to entrepreneurship in Africa's LDCs. The paper posits that given the persistent frictions in product and labor markets as well as skill shortages that characterize these economies, development of productive entrepreneurship cannot be left to markets alone. The policy analysis suggests that the state has an important role to play. Well‐targeted government interventions including training of potential entrepreneurs and workers can help to establish more modern and highly productive SME clusters that Africa's LDCs need.     

Uganda's experience with aid

This paper presents Uganda's experience with aid flows overthe period 1970-96. It discusses the compilation of aid dataand also reviews the chronological developments in aid flowsto Uganda. Over this period, the sectoral distribution and typeof aid is largely dictated by the government's economic programmesin place. The period 1962-71 largely reflects government borrowingfor on-lending to agriculture and industry whereas the period1979-85 shows a wider range of sector-specific programmes drivenby the need to reconstruct and rehabilitate the economy. Althoughthe need to reconstruct and rehabilitate the economy continued,support for policy reform began to take up an increasing proportionof aid over the period 1987-96. We also analyse the impact ofaid on some major macroeconomic variables and find that investmentand real exchange rate developments have been largely drivenby official development aid flows. Although we find a similarrelationship between aid and improved policy environment, thefindings show that in the latter part, i.e., 1992-6, the continuedpolicy reform was driven more by ownership of the programmethan by aid. Indeed, in this latter period, the aid/GDP ratiosdeclined. The major lesson drawn from this study is that ownershipof a reform programme is more critical for its success, henceour conclusion that aid should be used for financing ratherthan buying reforms.     

Sources of Capital and Capitalization in the Scottish Brewing Industry, c. 1750—1830

T he formative years in the development of the Scottish brewing industry coincided with the classic Industrial Revolution between 1770 and 1830. The industry was well established by the middle of the eighteenth century, a number of important firms being founded about 1750. Capital found its way into Scottish brewing from various sources, mainly from agriculture and commerce. Merchants were among the leading groups of investors, which also included lawyers, accountants, and excisemen. Related trades, like malting, distilling, and corn-milling also provided capital. Brewing maintained close contact with the countryside, for many farmers invested in the industry in a modest way; and the waste products of the brewery (called "draff" in Scotland) were returned to the farm for fattening purposes. Most breweries were small, serving only local markets. But in the cities and growing towns, where a more concentrated market existed and transport was a lower proportion of costs, larger units quickly emerged. Urban brewers began to make inroads into country markets during the Industrial Revolution, and also to sell further afield by developing coastal and foreign trades. At the close of the period with which this study is concerned the Scottish brewing industry was becoming increasingly urban in character, dominated by large-scale production units, such as those in Edinburgh, Alloa, Falkirk, and Glasgow. This article examines two aspects of the Scottish brewing trade during the century 1750-1850 through, (i) an analysis of the main sources of capital, and (ii) a breakdown of the size of firms from legal records and insurance valuations.     

发展观光农业调整农业结构

观光农业是以农业为基础,农业和旅游业相结合的一项交叉性产业,也是充分利用农业资源,改变单一农业结构,发展高效农业的一条重要途径.调整农业结构是农业自身发展的要求,是农民增收的途径.本文拟就发展观光农业,以优化农村产业结构方面做理论上的分析与探讨.     

SMALL AND MEDIUM ENTERPRISE DYNAMICS IN INDONESIA

This paper discusses the development of small and medium enterprises (SMEs) in Indonesia before and during the crisis. It argues that SME productivity has risen substantially, at rates not far from those of larger firms. Case studies indicate that various mechanisms are at work, such as technology diffusion through foreign buyers and subcontracting. The prevalence of SME clusters suggests that they benefit small and medium enterprise development. SMEs are found to have been weathering the crisis better than larger companies, though many have been hit hard too. Being less reliant on formal markets and formal credit, SMEs are able to respond more quickly and flexibly than their larger counterparts to sudden shocks. The paper argues that, rather than providing direct assistance to smaller firms, government should concentrate on creating a business environment conducive to small and medium business growth, and promoting provision of business development services by the private sector.     

Mises's dynamics of interventionism: Lessons from Indian agriculture

Despite trade liberalization, industrial delicensing, and deregulation in other sectors of the Indian economy since 1991, the agricultural sector is stifled by arbitrary, complex, and ever-increasing regulation in both input and product markets. This article resolves this puzzle of the Indian economy and, using Mises's theory of interventionism, explains the growth of regulation and subsidies in Indian agriculture. I argue that each intervention in agriculture created distortions in the market, necessitating the subsequent intervention in agricultural inputs and/or outputs. Land ceiling policies led to a large number of farmers with small and marginal landholdings. Attempts to increase agricultural productivity and income on small holdings led to interventions, and consequent distortions, in factor markets for seeds, fertilizer, electricity, water, credit, insurance, as well as in output markets in the form of minimum support prices. Indian agriculture policy serves as a cautionary tale of interventionism and needs systematic and comprehensive reforms.     

Shared Sectoral Growth Versus the Dual Economy Model: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire,Ghana, and Zimbabwe

Abstract: Though recently challenged, the dual economy view has affected development economics and development policy, either explicitly or implicitly, for more than half a century. According to this view, agriculture merely serves to build the industrial sector — in particular, agriculture has no role as an engine of growth in the long term. Examining agriculture, industry and service sector growth in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe over more than three decades, we find little empirical support for this view. On the contrary, our analyses find a large degree of interdependence in long‐run sectoral growth, implying that the sectors ‘grow together’ or, similarly, that there are externalities or spillovers between sectors. Policy implications are also discussed; these include directing more attention towards the interdependencies in sectoral growth broadly defined. In particular, our findings have implications for the design of education and health programs, as well. This improved understanding of inter‐sectoral dynamics at all levels may facilitate policy implementation aimed at increasing economic growth — and thereby ultimately improving peoples' livelihoods — in Africa and elsewhere.     

新疆南疆三地州经济发展现状与趋势

本文在分析南疆三地州2000年-2011年经济发展趋势与特点的基础上,利用灰色关联度模型剖析了三次产业对南疆三地州经济发展的贡献;并利用灰色预测模型GM（1,1）对南疆三地州未来5年三次产业增加值进行预测,得出结论：南疆三地州经济发展相对落后,第二产业对经济增长的推动力弱,工业发展十分薄弱;若按照2007年-2011年的发展态势,2012年-2016年,南疆三地州的三次产业增加值将不断提高,三次产业结构将不断优化.最后提出,应加快南疆三地州的工业发展,推进新型工业化进程;加快南疆三地州的特色农业发展,推进农牧业现代化;加快南疆三地州农村劳动力的转移,推进新型城镇化;加快南疆三地州的现代服务业发展,提高服务业发展质量.     

优势产业与地方税收增长——以新疆为例

优势产业是一个国家和地区经济迅速发展的动力源泉。新疆的优势产业集中在资源开采和特色农业方面，但优势产业附加值低，与地方税收增长不协调。因此，如何做大做强优势产业使之成为重要的地方财源，是现行体制下西部资源省区面-临的普遍难题。     

Access to agricultural extension,credit and markets among small‐scale farmers in southern Zambia

This article used survey data to determine the extent to which small‐scale farm households in the Choma district of Zambia's southern province have access to agricultural extension services, credit and markets. The findings show that the majority of the sample households had access to extension and credit services. They also showed that the resource base or wealth of the households — as manifested by farm size, livestock ownership and human capital or management capacity (the household head's training in agriculture) — is a significant factor when accounting for differential access to extension and credit. On the other hand, study findings suggest that farm households are facing problems with marketing their produce under the liberalised agricultural marketing system. Based on these findings, the article discusses recommendations for providing solutions to some of the problems affecting small‐scale farmers in accessing production services.     

Globalization, Growth, and the Poor

This paper discusses the possible causal relationships and empirical associations between globalization and growth, growth and poverty reduction, and, finally, globalization and poverty reduction. We argue that globalization can contribute much to poverty reduction both directly and by accelerating growth. Second, the contributions of redistributive policies are very likely to be less than the contribution of greater access to markets, more competitive insurance and financial markets, and improved institutions to poverty reduction. The potential effect of greater international integration on poverty reduction, however, is limited by domestic policy failures in developing countries and also by continued protectionism, particularly in developed countries.     

Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: The Case of Selected African Countries

Abstract: This paper studies the effect of stock market development on economic growth in 14 African countries in a dynamic panel data modelling setting. Results largely show a positive relationship between stock market development and economic growth. Further analyses, based on the level of economic development and stock market capitalization, are also conducted. The results reveal that the positive influence of stock market development on economic growth is significant for countries classified as upper middle income economies. On the basis of market capitalization groupings, stock market developments play a significant role in growth only for moderately capitalized markets. The general trend in results shows that low income African countries and less developed stock markets need to grow more and develop their markets to elicit economic gains from stock markets.     

EXPLAINING THE MARKET POWER OF GHANAIAN BANKS1

A competitive banking system helps lower transaction costs and risks. It also helps make financial markets more efficient. In Ghana however, observers believe that the banking industry is not competitive and point to the huge spread between bank lending and borrowing rates as evidence. The Ghanaian banking industry is analysed for evidence of market power by computing the Lerner Index of banks using quarterly data from 2001 to 2006. The evidence is that Ghanaian banks possess market power. Factors that significantly explain the market power of Ghanaian banks are: bank size, efficiency of banks with respect to staff costs, the macroeconomic environment and time.     

杭州市入境旅游市场现状及开拓对策

随着旅游业的迅速发展,旅游市场的研究在旅游业中的地位与作用越来越重要。能否驾驭旅游市场的变化规律,关系到每个旅游地的兴衰存亡。本文试从分析杭州市入境旅游市场现状及存在的问题入手,提出了杭州入境旅游市场的开拓对策。     

西藏产业结构变动的历史、现状与趋势

从西藏产业结构的演变历程、现阶段与全国产业结构的比较中探寻西藏产业结构的发展趋势,可以得出如下结论:西藏第一产业,即农牧业中存在剩余劳动力,产业结构调整已具备了向产业化发展的条件;第二产业能够吸收更多的劳动力,应当加快发展;第三产业是超前发展的,今后不仅要有量的增加,更要有质的提高.     

中国民航业25年发展与巨变对旅游业影响的动态分析

利用1985-2010年的时间序列数据,采用协整分析法、格兰杰因果法对民航客运与旅游发展的关系进行了动态检验,并进一步采用脉冲响应函数和方差分解法探讨了民航客运变化对旅游发展的冲击效应及其重要性。结果发现：①协整检验和格兰杰因果关系检验表明,航空客运与旅游之间存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。航空客运是旅游业增长的原因,即航空运输业发展对旅游客流量的增长具有显著的推着作用。②冲击效应分析表明,航空客运的发展变化对旅游业冲击作用的持久性长。入境旅游对国际航线冲击的反应幅度较大,而国内旅游对国内航线里程冲击反应幅度较大,表明入境旅游客流量对国际航线敏感,国内旅游客流量对国内航线里程较敏感。③方差分析表明,国际航空客运量冲击对入境旅游波动的贡献最大且呈不断递增趋势。国内航线里程对国内旅游增长贡献率最大。与入境旅游相比,航空客运对国内旅游影响更大且稳定。本研究为认识民航客运与旅游关系提供了重要依据。     

基于SPSS模型的金华地区生态农业可持续发展研究

农业历来是国民经济发展的基础,金华地区作为浙江农产品供应的核心区域.在资源日益紧张的趋势下,如何解决好经济发展与环境恶化对农业发展带来的难题,是今后指导该地区农业发展的一个方针.本文就金华地区农业发展现状,利用SPSS统计分析软件对该地区8个县市进行区域划分,并对各划分区域做了可持续发展模式的探讨.     

我国农业经济发展水平及其影响因素实证研究

农业经济发展与农业生产自然制约条件、农业人力资本投入、农业生产资本投入、农业生产技术、农业经济的市场作用、农业生产条件制约因素等密切相关.本文选取反映农业经济增长的13个指标,对其1980-2012年的时间序列运用主成分回归分析与其误差修正模型,研究我国农业经济发展全要素生产率及影响我国农业长期经济发展与短期经济发展的因素.结果表明,影响我国农业长期与短期经济发展的主要因素按影响力大小依次为农业生产条件、市场作用、自然制约条件、农业生产资本、农业生产技术、人力资源.