The economics of natural disasters in a developing country: The case of Vietnam

We examine the impact of natural disasters on annual output growth in Vietnam. Using provincial data for primary and secondary industries, we employ the Blundell–Bond General Method of Moments procedure to estimate the impact of disasters on the macroeconomy. We show that more lethal disasters result in lower output growth but that disasters that destroy more property and capital actually appear to boost the economy in the short-run. This is consistent with the ‘investment-producing destruction’ hypothesis that we outline. However, we find that disasters have a different macroeconomic impact in different geographical regions; these differences are potentially related to the ability to generate transfers from the Vietnamese central government.     

The small country assumption: A reassessment with evidence from Korea

Zusammenfassung Die Annahme eines ⋯kleinen Landes”. Eine überprüfung mit Daten aus Korea. — Es gibt kaum ?konometrische Belege für ⋯kleine” L?nder im Welthandel, weil das übliche Vorgehen bei der Sch?tzung von Parametern für die Exportnachfrage es ausschlie\t, Befunde für ein ⋯kleines” Land zu ermitteln. Die Verfasser entwickeln deshalb ein alternatives Verfahren, wobei die inverse Nachfragefunktion als Teil eines Systems der Exportangebots- und Exportnachfragefunktionen gesch?tzt wird, und wenden es auf den Fall koreanischer Maschinen und Transportmittel an. Dieses Verfahren liefert Ergebnisse, die statistisch besser und einleuchtender sind als diejenigen, die sich aus der traditionellen Methode der Sch?tzung von Exportnachfrageparametern ergeben.

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Resumen El supuesto de país peque?o: un nuevo análisis con evidencia de Corea. — Casi no existe evidencia en favor de paises peque?os en el comercio mundial. Esto se debe a que el enfoque convencional para estimar los parámetros de la demanda de exportaciones excluye la posibilidad de encontrar evidencia de un país peque?o. Se desarrolla un enfoque alternativo estimando la función inversa de demanda como parte de un sistema de funciones de demanda y oferta de exportaciones y se lo aplica al caso de maquinaria y equipo de transporte coreanos. Este enfoque arroja resultados estadísticamente superiores y con más sentido que aquellos derivados del enfoque convencional para estimar los parámetros de la demanda de exportaciones.

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Résumé La supposition d’un ?petit? pays: la réévaluation avec l’évidence de la Corée. — Il n’y a presque aucune évidence économétrique des ?petits? pays au commerce international. La raison est que l’approche conventionnelle pour estimer les paramètres de la demande d’exportation ne tient pas compte de trouver l’évidence d’un ?petit? pays. Dans l’article, on développe une méthode alternative: on estime la fonction de la demande inverse comme part d’un système des fonctions de l’offre et de la demande d’exportations et on l’applique au cas de l’équipement en machines et en transport en Corée. Cette méthode aboutit aux résultats qui sont statistiquement meilleurs que ceux dérivés de l’approche conventionnelle pour estimer les paramètres de la demande d’exportations.

     

Intra-industry trade in manufactures: The case of Korea

Intra-Industry Trade in Manufactures: The Case of Korea. - This paper provides an empirical analysis of intra-industry trade (IIT) in Korea's foreign trade. First, we measure the share of IIT in Korea's trade of manufactures from 1977 to 1986. The share of IIT increased from 0.350 in 1977 to 0.502 in 1985, but declined to 0.421 in 1986. Second, we test hypotheses regarding country characteristics of IIT. Using the unadjusted Grubel-Lloyd index with a trade imbalance variable in the regression equations, we show that the extent of IIT is: (1) negatively correlated with differences in per capita incomes and with “economic distances” between Korea and its trading partners, and (2) positively correlated with the trade intensity between Korea and its trading partners and with the existence of a common cultural background.     

Free trade and income redistribution in some developing and newly industrialized countries

A competitive general equilibrium model of production is specified and the long-run comparative static elasticities of changing prices on factor prices are examined in eight developing and newly industrialized countries. Unskilled labor in these developing countries stands to gain from a program of global free trade characterized by increased manufacturing exports and falling prices of imported business services, while capital owners and skilled labor lose. Results are contrasted with developed countries, the United States in particular, where unskilled labor will lose while capital and skilled labor enjoy gains with global free trade.     

Socialist development in an underdeveloped country: The case of Tanzania

The author attempts to draw on the experience of Tanzania in order to provide some comments on socialist investment strategies. Tanzania has been more successful in reorienting its programme of social investment than its investment programme for economic development. This failure stems from real differences within Tanzania, and among socialists generally, about appropriate socialist investment strategies for a country at Tanzania's stage of development. It also reflects the fact that socialism in Tanzania is a change imposed from the top, and the bureaucracy remains relatively immune from the pressures of the people and the poverty in which they live.     

The effectiveness of export promotion policies: The case of Korea

Zusammenfassung Die Wirksamkeit von Exportf?rderungspolitiken: Der Fall Korea. — Dieser Aufsatz untersucht die Wirkungen verschiedener Arten einer Exportf?rderungspolitik auf die gesamte Industriegüterausfuhr Koreas. Er liefert eine mikro?konomische Analyse des Verhaltens monopolistischer Exporteure bei alternativen Subventionsprogrammen. Diese Analyse bildet die Grundlage für ein empirisches Modell des Exportangebots in Korea. Wechselkurserwartungen und der dynamische Proze\ zwischen Exportauftr?gen und Exportlieferungen werden er?rtert. Die Sch?tzung der Exportnachfrage und des Exportangebots liefert Sch?tzungen der langfristigen Wirkungen der Exportf?rderungspolitik. Die Gleichungen deuten darauf hin, da\ Subventionsprogramme wirkungsvoller sind als eine Abwertungspolitik.

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Résumé Efficacité des politiques de promotion d’exportation: Le cas de la Corée. - Dans cet article les auteurs analysent les effets des formes différentes des politiques de promotion d’exportation sur le montant agrégé des exportations manufacturières en Corée. Ils présentent une investigation microéconomique du comportement monopoliste d’exportateur sous des programmes de subvention alternatifs. Cette investigation est la base d’un modèle empirique d’offre d’ exportation de la Corée. Les auteurs discutent les expectatives de taux de change et le processus dynamique entre les commandes d’exportation et la livraison d’exportation. Les estimations de demande et d’offre d’exportation rendent possible l’évaluation des effets à long terme des politiques de promotion d’exportation. Les équations indiquent que les programmes de subvention sont plus efficaces que la politique de dévaluation.

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Resumen La efectividad de la promoción de exportaciones: El caso de Corea. - En este trabajo se investigan los efectos de distintas políticas de promoción de exportaciones sobre las exportaciones agregadas de productos manufacturados de Corea. Se ofrece un análisis microeconómico del comportamiento de un exportador monopolista bajo distintos programas de subsidio. Este análisis sirve de base para derivar un modelo empírico de la oferta de exportaciones para Corea. Se tratan las expectativas con respecta al tipo de cambio y el proceso dinámico entre las órdenes de exportación y los envíos. La estimación de la oferta y la demanda de exportaciones permite estimar los efectos a largo plazo de las políticas de promoción. Las ecuaciones indican que los programas de subsidio son más efectivos que las políticas de devaluatión.

     

Industrialization and resource allocation in a developing country: The case of recent experiences in Tanzania

This paper examines the problem of allocation of resources in the industrial sector in Tanzania during the balance-of-payments crises since the mid-1970s. It is argued that the slow growth of industrial output in the 1970s was aggravated by the failure to shift the utilization of foreign exchange away from capital goods imports for capacity expansion in favour of intermediate inputs for capacity utilization. Consequently society benefited only moderately from considerable new investments of the 1970s. This aspect of misallocation of resources is explained in terms of the role of foreign finance on the one hand and the weak link between macro-level and micro-level planning on the other.     

Women's labor force participation and marriage: The case of Korea

In this paper, we examine the relationship between marital status and female labor force participation in Korea, and argue that marriage remains a major obstacle to young Korean women's employment. We find that an average married woman is much less likely (by 40–60%) to participate in the labor force than a single woman in urban Korea. Further investigation into the participation patterns among married women reveals that labor force participation rate (LFPR) varies with husband's occupation and her own age. Lower LFPR among the young married women is explained by demand-side factors, while relatively higher LFPR among the middle-aged married women is mostly explained by the supply-side factors.     

The effect of duty drawback on export promotion: The case of Korea

This paper examines whether or not the duty drawback system has contributed to promoting Korea's exports. The unit root tests show that they can be assumed to be integrated of order one. Banerjee et al.'s [Banerjee, A., Dolado, J. J., & Mestre, R. (May 1998). Error-correction mechanism tests for cointegration in a single-equation framework. Journal of Time Series Analysis, 19(3), 267–283] small sample error correction mechanism (ECM) test shows that there is no evidence of cointegration. The estimation results show that there are strong evidences of the positive effect of export subsidy in terms of duty drawback on export supply. That is, the efficiently managed duty drawback system may contribute to export promotion significantly.     

Multinational companies and wage inequality in the host country: The case of Ireland

Multinational Companies and Wage Inequality in the Host Country: The Case of Ireland. — In this paper, the authors analyze the impact of multinational companies on wage inequality in a host country. Based on a model, in which the introduction of new technologies leads to increases in the demand for skilled labour and, therefore, to rising wage inequality, they econometrically study the Irish manufacturing sector between 1979 and 1995. They examine inequality between wages for skilled and unskilled labour within the same manufacturing sector. Their results indicate that there is an inverted-U relationship between wage inequality and multinationals, i.e., with the increasing presence of multinationals, wage inequality first increases, reaches a maximum, and decreases eventually.     

Inflation,interest rates,and the balance of payments during a financial reform: The case of Argentina

In order to evaluate the impact of recent financial reforms on the Argentine economy, this paper presents the results of estimating a small, monthly structural model of the Argentine economy which emphasizes the linkages between the financial system, inflation and the balance of payments. The results are used to examine the portfolio interest rate elasticities of both the financial and non-financial sectors, the determinants of the real levels of and spread between the loan and deposit interest rates, and the responsiveness of inflation and the balance of payments to various policy measures.     

Anatomy of financial retardation in a less developed country: The case of Sri Lanka, 1951–1976

An attempt is made in this paper to analyse the experience of Sri Lanka during 1951–1976, particularly in relation to its financial sector development. It is shown that the interventionist regime held the key to the pace and pattern of the economy's development. Whether it was the skimpy growth of the financial system, the faltering progression of GNP, the precarious foreign exchange position, or the persistence of inflationary pressure, they were all traceable to the impact on the financial system of a particular set of policies pursued. The year 1977, however, marked a watershed in Sri Lanka's long quest for economic development. The Government began to unwind the entire paraphernalia of administered controls on consumption, investment and foreign exchange. Most of the price controls were removed, subsidies phased out and public corporations were allowed greater autonomy in their pricing and distribution policies. It is necessary to contrast this situation with what existed prior to 1977 in order to assess its impact on the real economy of Sri Lanka. Only then can the cost of financial retardation be measured.     

Price dispersion across and within countries: The case of Japan and Korea

This paper analyzes the price difference between Japan and Korea by using goods-level consumer price data. The national border has a large effect on price dispersion in both time-series volatility analysis and cross-sectional difference analysis. By categorizing goods by their perishability, I find that absolute purchasing power parity (PPP) applies to a greater extent for durable goods. Although perishables deviate more from absolute PPP, the difference is due to distance. This implies that the source of price dispersion depends on the characteristics of goods. J. Japanese Int. Economies 21 (2) (2007) 237–259.     

Globalization and Inflation: a Swiss Perspective

Is inflation caused by global developments instead of domestic monetary factors? This paper explores the role of globalization for inflation, especially in Switzerland, one of the smallest and most open economies where the globalization hypothesis should be most relevant. It provides tests of whether Swiss inflation is causally related to inflation elsewhere. It also examines Swiss inflation in a P* model and whether it is also influenced by inflation abroad or by import prices. It finds that Swiss inflation is made at home. Evidence is presented of a co-integrating relationship of Swiss and German inflation, likely due to common inflation objectives.     

A search for leading sectors over the business cycle: The case of Korea

This paper studies the sectoral mechanism of shock propagation in business cycles by performing a case study. After we transform business survey indices of different industries into comparable metrics, we trace and compare them before and after reference dates. From these observations, we show that manufacturing industry leads the peak and the trough of the most recent business cycle in Korea; and six sectors are major players in manufacturing industry, i.e. ‘food products and beverages,’ ‘chemicals,’ ‘machinery,’ ‘motor vehicles, etc.,’ and ‘basic metals,’ and ‘fabricated metals.’ In conclusion, the heavy and chemical sectors may be the key to understanding recent business cycles in Korea.     

Technical efficiency and ownership characteristics of manufacturing firms in a developing country: A Brazilian case study

Zusammenfassung Technische Leistungsf?higkeit und Eigentumsmerkmale von gewerblichen Unternehmen in einem Entwicklungsland: Eine brasilianische Fallstudie. — In diesem Aufsatz wird versucht, zwei Dinge zu tun: (1) eine qualitative Beurteilung der Leistungen verschiedener Gruppen von Unternehmungen vorzunehmen, die nach den Eigentumsverh?ltnissen klassifiziert wurden, und (2) Analysen und Sch?tzungen auf der Basis von Produktionsfunktionen durchzuführen, um die relativen Unterschiede zwischen ausl?ndischen, einheimischen und Staatsunternehmungen in bezug auf Leistungsf?higkeit und Skalenertr?ge zu ermitteln. Es wurde festgestellt, daβ für unterschiedliche Eigentumsklassen unterschiedliche Produktionsfunktionen gelten. Es werden Belege dafür vorgelegt, daβ Firmen in ausl?ndischem Eigentum gr?βere Skalenertr?ge erzielen und gr?βere Substitutionselastizit?ten besitzen als Industrieunternehmen, die im Eigentum von Inl?ndern stehen.

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Résumé L’efficience technique et les caractéristiques propriétaires des entreprises manufacturières dans un pays en voie de développement: Une étude de cas Brésilien. — Cet article essaie de faire deux choses: (1) d’entreprendre quelques jugements qualitatives sur la performance économique des groupes différents des entreprises comme classifiées par la propriété et (2) d’employer une analyse de la fonction de production et une estimation pour déterminer la différence relative d’entreprises possédées par des étrangers, le gouvernement et les privés locaux concernant l’efficience technique et les économies d’échelle. Nous avons trouvé qu’il y a des fonctions de production existantes pour des classes différentes et nous présentons quelque évidence que les entreprises possédées par les étrangers ont des rendements d’échelle plus grands et des élasticités de substitution plus grandes que les entreprises manufacturières locales.

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Resumen Eficiencia técnica y características de la propiedad de empresas manufactureras en un país en desarrollo: un estudio de caso del Brasil. — Este artículo représenta un intento para hacer dos cosas: (1) emitir juicios cualitativos sobre el desempe?o económico de diferentes grupos de empresas clasificadas según su propiedad y (2) emplear el análisis y la estimación de funciones de produción para determinar la diferencia relativa de firmas de propiedad extranjera, estatal y doméstica privada con respecto a su eficiencia técnica y economías de escala. Se encontró que existen diferentes funciones de producción para las distintas clases de propiedad. Se presenta alguna evidencia que firmas de propiedad extranjera poseen retornos de escala más grandes y elasticidades de sustitución mayores que empresas manufactureras de propiedad doméstica.

     

The Impact of Inflation Uncertainty on Output Growth and Inflation in Thailand*

We explore the impact of inflation uncertainty on output growth in Thailand, an emerging market economy with moderate inflation. Inflation and output uncertainty are modeled in a bivariate constant conditional correlation generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (AR(p)‐cccGARCH(1,1)) specification. We include the exchange rate in the mean equations, and use the headline and core inflation rates and industrial production to generate inflation and output uncertainty series. These series are then used in Granger causality tests to make inferences about the effect of monetary policy‐induced inflation uncertainty. Causality tests show a positive relation from inflation to inflation uncertainty. Additionally, increased inflation uncertainty decreases output. These results are consistent with real costs associated with moderate inflation. Finally, we find no evidence that monetary policy reduced these costs.