Regional development in the Southern African development area

This article draws the conclusion that the present regional development strategy is an improvement on the previous policy of industrial decentralization, both in terms of its stated objectives and its achievements, but that it does not fully come to grips with the development problems of the Southern African development region (SADA). In spite of some very sound objectives on which the strategy is based, it still focuses too much on the development of growth points (or IDPs) and industrial development. Growth centre strategies have, however, only met with limited success, both internationally and in South Africa. A more comprehensive and bottom‐up approach to regional development is called for, but it will not be possible to finalize the regional development policy before clarity is reached on the future political dispensation of South Africa.     

Land distribution and inequality in a black settler colony: the case of Sierra Leone, 1792–1831†

Land distribution is considered to be one of the main contributors to inequality in pre‐industrial societies. This article contributes to the debate on the origins of economic inequality in pre‐industrial African societies by studying land inequality at a particularly early stage of African economic history. The research examines land distribution and inequality in land ownership among settlers in the Colony of Sierra Leone for three benchmark years over the first 40 years of its existence. The findings show that land inequality was low at the founding of the Colony but increased substantially over time. We suggest that this increase was enabled by a shift in the type of egalitarianism pursued by the colonial authorities, which was reflected in a change in the redistributive policy applied, which allowed later settlers to appropriate land more freely than had been previously possible.     

African trade dynamics: is China a different trading partner?

This paper employs the standard gravity model to identify the quality of governance of China's African trade partners. As a benchmark, we perform the same analysis on other major African trade partners: France, Germany, UK, and USA. Data from 53 African countries in 1996–2009 show that only China is consistently willing to import more from African countries with a lower governance standing. By doing so; China fills a gap left open by the other major world economies, and might even play a key role in the future development of Africa.     

The Dynamics of African-American Health: A Historical Perspective

There are many misconceptions about African American health that have subtle and continuing influence on health policy debates. Unfortunately, many of the misconceptions surrounding African American health have an implicit historical dimension, and the usual response for the lack of evidence in support of any myth is that “the data does not exist” to shed full light on the given question. This is unfortunate as there is now a growing body of evidence pertaining to the historical health of the African American population, and this data is currently being used to uncover a number of facts about the historical dynamics of African American health. In this paper, we show that our historical data on the health of African Americans is wholly lacking and at the same time show that one prominent myth about trends in African American health does not stand up to historical investigation. We conclude with a brief note about where this research is headed and what future topics should be explored in African American economic and health history.     

未来产业的演化机制与产业政策选择

新一轮科技革命和产业变革的蓬勃兴起,推动着前沿技术向成为经济增长新动能的未来产业转化。随着科技水平增强和产业向中高端攀升,我国也需要在未来产业提早进行谋划。未来产业是受前沿技术推动,以满足经济社会不断升级的需求为目标,代表科技和产业长期发展方向,未来对国民经济形成重要支撑和带动,当前尚处于孕育孵化阶段的新兴产业,与战略性新兴产业等概念既有联系又有区别。未来产业发展前景广阔,前后向带动和产业赋能能力强,因其产业化的长期性、锁定效应和网络效应而具有先发优势,且具有公共性与竞争性、确定性与不确定性、技术推动与市场拉动并存等特征。未来产业的战略性、正外部性要求政府高度重视并积极干预,发展大方向的可预测性是产业政策成功的前提;但其驱动技术的前沿性、产业化的长期性、发展的不确定性也要求产业政策转型,即从强调产业政策到重视竞争政策、从选择性支持到发展方向引导、从重视应用技术到强化基础研究、从技术产业化的支持到市场拉动、从依托特定企业到鼓励多元试错。培育和壮大我国未来产业,需要政府在战略引导、支持基础研究、创造早期市场、完善产业生态、利用全球资源等方面提供支持。     

Will the Sarb always Succeed in Fighting Inflation with Contractionary Policy?

The conventional view is that a monetary policy shock has both supply‐side and demand‐side effects, at least in the short run. Barth and Ramey show that the supply‐side effect of a monetary policy shock may be greater than the demand‐side effect. We argue that it is crucial for monetary authorities to understand whether an increase in expected future inflation is due to supply shocks or demand shocks before applying contractionary policy to forestall inflation. We estimate a standard New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the cost channel of monetary policy for the South African economy to show that whether the South African Reserve Bank should apply contractionary policy to fight inflation depends critically on the nature of the disturbance. If an increase in expected future inflation is mainly due to supply shocks, the South African Reserve Bank should not apply contractionary policy to fight inflation, as this would lead to a persistent increase in inflation and a greater loss in output. Our estimation results also show that with a moderate level of cost‐channel effect and nominal rigidities, a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model with the cost channel of monetary policy is able to mimic the price puzzle produced by an estimated vector autoregressive model.     

DOMESTIC AND INTERNATIONAL INNOVATION PARTNERSHIPS: DO THEY MATTER FOR INNOVATION OUTCOMES OF SOUTH AFRICAN FIRMS?

This paper studies the impact of the diversity of domestic and international innovation partnerships on the innovation outcomes of South African firms. A number of competing hypotheses are formulated and tested empirically using a sample of South African firms in manufacturing and services by applying Ordinary Least Squares regression analyses. Results show that having an innovation partnership, particularly an international partnership, is beneficial to innovation outcomes. However, it also emerges that too diverse a set of international partnerships is detrimental to innovation outcomes. The paper concludes with a discussion and a number of proposals for future research.     

新形势下的中非关系及其挑战

中国和非洲国家正在继续致力于谋求共同发展,因为这是一种"双赢"关系。近年来,中国在非洲的影响力不断扩大,中非间的信赖合作关系备受世人瞩目。为了保持中非关系的健康发展,我们要积极应对未来中非关系可能出现的挑战。本文的结构安排如下:首先,分析中国的发展对非洲产生的影响;其次,阐述新形势下的中非关系;最后,就未来中非关系发展面临的挑战提出政策建议。     

Trade Intensity and Business Cycle Synchronicity in Africa

Abstract: Business cycle synchronicity, which is the key requirement for sharing a common currency, is not particularly strong within the prospective African monetary unions. However, this parameter is not irrevocably fixed and may be endogeneous vis‐à‐vis the integration process. For example, trade may increase the similarity of economic disturbances. This paper tests such an effect among the 53 African countries from 1965 to 2004. The estimated results suggest that trade intensity increases the synchronization of business cycles in the African context. The magnitude of the ‘endogeneity effect’ is, however, smaller than similar estimates among industrial countries.     

Poverty Alleviation in the People's Republic of China: The Implications for Sino–African Cooperation in Poverty Reduction

Abstract: In the last thirty years, remarkable achievements have been made in China's poverty reduction course. The dramatic fall in China's poor can be attributed mainly to a high rate of economic growth, government poverty reduction policies and targeted programmes and pro‐poor macroeconomic and industrial policies. This paper focuses on China's poverty reduction policies and programmes and their impact on the poor regions and poor households. Lessons are drawn for poverty reduction and economic development in African countries. The paper also explores the potential for collaboration in poverty reduction between China and African countries and recommendations are made for the governments and donor agencies.     

The Southern African customs union: A reappraisal

The paper attempts to evaluate, as far as possible quantitatively, the costs and benefits to the countries of the ‘Southern African periphery’ (Botswana, Lesotho and Swaziland) of participation with South Africa in the current customs union agreement. On balancing the agreement's measurable effects (on industrial development, exports, government revenue and the cost of living) against one another, it appears that on sanguine assumptions only, there would be a substantial benefit to Botswana and a much more moderate benefit to Lesotho if the customs union were dismantled and replaced by separately protected national markets. Such a calculation, however, neglects what may be the most important benefit and cost to the ‘peripheral’ countries of leaving the customs union, namely the increase of ‘economic independence’ and the risk of South African retaliation respectively: themes which are explored in the final section.     

The South African dream and the three stumbling blocks

Most South Africans nurture a strong hope for a better future. The South African economy, however, has considerable problems with respect to both growth and employment, which in turn reduce the scope for redistribution of the national income. This article deals with a number of stumbling blocks that the political and economic decision makers may be tripped by and which may make the South African dream nothing but a dream. These are: obstacles to growth, increasing economic and social differences, and unfavourable political development.     

LIQUIDITY CREATION IN SOUTH AFRICAN BANKS UNDER STRESSED ECONOMIC CONDITIONS

The financial crisis placed severe pressure on global bank liquidity. Many banks were unable to create sufficient liquidity and had to receive government support or face default. This paper attempts to determine the impact of the financial crisis on liquidity creation within South African banks using a model previously applied to US banks. Four measures of liquidity creation are discussed and applied to data spanning 2004‐2009. Although created, liquidity decreases steeply from 2007, liquidity levels in 2009 remain about 45% higher than those of 2004. The four large South African banks created about 80% of the total market liquidity. The authors are aware that the liquidity measures discussed in this paper may not accurately reflect the manner in which South African banks created liquidity before and during the financial crisis as the period under review was characterised by various other factors. These factors include the concurrent rise in securitisation, considerable changes in the South African Reserve Bank's (SARB) stance on monetary policy, historic low‐interest rates during the period and severe curtailing of local inter‐bank dealing. It remains possible that these factors may have had an impact on the way in which South African banks created and disseminated liquidity. This possibility will be the subject of future research.     

强化北京科技领军企业引领未来产业发展的战略思考

科技领军企业是引领未来产业发展的主力军。利用文献梳理法、归纳总结法、实地调研法,在剖析未来产业与科技领军企业相关关系的基础上,分析北京科技领军企业发展现状及创新引领未来产业发展面临的问题,提出强化北京科技领军企业引领未来产业发展的战略建议。     

中韩产业结构高度化的比较分析——以两国制造业为例

展望未来韩国产业的发展与结构变化,中国产业结构变化是必须考虑的重要因素之一。本文为了探析中国的产业结构高度化趋势与程度,根据OECD技术分类标准,以制造业为中心,对中、韩两国的产业结构进行了详尽的比较分析。研究结果表示,两国都呈现出比较明显的产业高度化态势。在制造业中,高端技术产业的比重显著增加。韩国高端技术产业比重的增长快于中国,中国在中端技术产业与低端技术产业的比重大于韩国。     

Conflict resolution and the deregulation of the South African transport sector

Transportation policy has achieved increasing recognition as a key variable influencing the development process in Southern Africa. The present paper explores the way in which the South African Transport Services have been forced to pursue two largely conflicting goals, namely to function as a commercial organisation while simultaneously obligated to further the economic and political objectives of public policy. It is argued that carefully planned deregulation provides a solution to the current impasse if certain preconditions for equal intermodal competition are established. The impact of such a policy of planned deregulation on industrial decentralisation and economic efficiency is examined, and an integrated approach is proposed to minimise any adverse effects on development.     

丽水市产业结构与产业布局研究

该文在对丽水市的产业结构和产业布局现状分析的基础上,展望了产业结构和产业布局的发展趋势;同时提出丽水未来产业结构及布局调整的相应对策。     

External debt-servicing capacity in developing countries

Conclusion The debt-servicing problem of the nonoil developing countries, and the black African countries in particular, has been of heightened concern to the world financial and economic community. The balance of payments bottlenecks in the developing countries that have resulted have slowed down the rate of economic growth in these countries. In turn, the slower rate of growth in these economies tends to reduce their ability to demand the industrial outputs of the industrial countries.     

生产性服务业集聚影响技术创新效率的研究述评

对生产性服务业的研究正成为当前一个学术热点,在研究技术创新效率的影响因素中,生产性服务业集聚所起的作用不容忽视。对生产性服务业集聚动因、集聚度测量方法以及集聚影响因素等进行文献研究后发现,现有研究多从生产性服务业集聚自身角度进行较为单一的分析,而对其所产生的作用与产业升级整体联系的分析却存在明显不足,未来应关注生产性服务业集聚与制造业创新的关联性、匹配性,加强以提高产业整体创新能力为导向的产业价值链布局、创新资源分配及政策精准扶持。     

Trade integration in the Southern African development community: Prospects and problems 1

The adoption of a trade and development protocol by the member states of the Southern African Development Community (SADC) in August 1996 marks the end of an era of sectoral cooperation and the beginning of a process of trade integration among these countries. This article provides a preliminary analysis of the obstacles and opportunities which trade integration presents for the Southern African region in the context of the institutional and structural factors currently influencing trade patterns both within and outside the region. Critically, the article poses the question whether the provisions of the trade protocol provide an adequate framework for the region's agenda of trade integration and industrial development that is equitable, balanced and mutually beneficial. The analysis demonstrates that it does not, and hence the authors argue that measures that lie beyond the provisions of the trade protocol are a sine qua non for the success of trade integration.