Demand for kerosene in developing countries: A case of Indonesia

This paper attempts to examine the determinants of kerosene consumption in Indonesia. Derived from annual data for the period 1957–1992, the statistical results suggest that in addition to the past conditions, the price of kerosene, price elasticity, and the per capita income are the main determinants of kerosene consumption in Indonesia. The estimated cross-elasticity value with respect to the price of elasticity implies that electricity is a weak substitute for kerosene.     

Openness, Technological Change and Labour Demand in Pre-Crisis Indonesia

This paper examines the impact of export orientation, import competition, foreign ownership and the rate of capital accumulation on the relative demand for skilled and unskilled labour in pre-crisis Indonesia. Estimates from an interrelated factor demand analysis indicate that openness and foreign ownership, by themselves, acted to raise the relative demand for unskilled workers in the pre-crisis period, while the newness of capital was associated with increased relative demand for skilled workers. Overall, the relative demand for unskilled workers increased yet their relative wage position weakened. These contrasting relative employment and wage changes are consistent with the examined demand shocks and the greater elasticity of supply of Indonesian unskilled relative to skilled labour.     

Revisiting the Impact of Consumption Growth and Inequality on Poverty in Indonesia during Decentralisation

This article analyses the consumption growth elasticity and inequality elasticity of poverty in Indonesia, with a particular focus on the decentralisation period. Using provincial panel data, we show that the effectiveness of growth in alleviating poverty across provinces was greater during decentralisation—that is, between 2002 and 2010—than at any other point since 1984. The growth elasticity of poverty since 2002 is estimated to have been –2.46, which means that a 10% increase in average consumption per capita would have reduced the poverty rate by almost 25%. However, we also find that rising income inequality negated a quarter to a third of the 5.7-percentage-point reduction in the headcount poverty rate. This increasing inequality has contributed to a lower level of pro-poor growth than that maintained in Indonesia before decentralisation.     

Domestic value added and employment generated by Chinese exports: A quantitative estimation

We develop an input–output methodology to estimate how Chinese exports affected the country's total domestic value added (DVA) and employment in the years 2002 and 2007. For every US$1000 dollar of Chinese exports in 2007 (2002), DVA and employment are estimated to be US$591 (US$466) and 0.096 (0.242) person-year, respectively. To implement these estimations, we use hitherto unpublished Chinese government data to construct several completely new datasets, including an input–output table with separate input–output and employment-output coefficients for processing exports, non-processing exports, and output for domestic use. We hypothesize that, in comparison with the export sector, China's domestic sector would be relatively autarkic due to China's history of central planning. We expect that exports would generate less DVA and employment than output for domestic use. Processing exports, which are highly dependent on imported inputs, would similarly generate less DVA and employment than non-processing exports. Our findings support these expectations. For both 2002 and 2007, the DVA and employment effects of domestic final demand were higher than those of non-processing exports, which were in turn higher than those of processing exports. However, with the progress of economic reforms, we found that the total DVAs of exports and domestic final demand have converged from 2002 to 2007.     

The Effect of Child Care Costs on the Employment and Welfare Recipiency of Single Mothers

This paper considers the effect of child care costs on two labor market outcomes for single mothers—whether to work for pay and whether to receive welfare. Hourly child care expenditures are estimated using data drawn from the 1992 and 1993 panels of the Survey of Income and Program Participation (SIPP). These expenditures are then used to predict the probability of welfare recipiency and employment. While the direction and significance of key variables are robust to changes in specification, the quantitative results are found to be sensitive to identification restrictions. All results show a substantial positive effect of child care costs on welfare recipiency, with the child care price elasticity of welfare recipiency varying from 1.0 to 1.9. Similarly, we find a significant negative effect of child care price on employment with elasticity estimates from -.3 to -1.1, showing that controlling for the welfare choice does not reduce the price elasticity of employment found in other studies.     

The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data

We use the ‘spell’ approach to identifying poverty and apply an ordered logit model to examine the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia, categorising households as poor, transient poor (–), transient poor (+) or non-poor. Observing the National Socio-Economic Survey (Susenas) balanced-panel data sets of 2005 and 2007, we found that 28% of poor households are classified as chronically poor (that is, remaining poor in two periods) while 7% of non-poor households are vulnerable to being transient poor (–). Our estimations confirmed that the determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia are educational attainment, the number of household members, physical assets, employment status, health shocks, the microcredit program, access to electricity, and changes in employment sector, employment status and the number of household members. We also found that households in Java–Bali are more vulnerable to negative shocks than those outside Java–Bali.     

Promoting Small Scale and Cottage Industries in Indonesia: An Impact Analysis for Central Java

This paper reviews the promotion of small scale and cottage industries (SSCI) in Indonesia and its impact on employment creation. The review was conducted for the province of Central Java, the ‘heartland’ of SSCI employment. Secondary data showed that participation rates in technical and financial assistance programs for SSCI are low, suggesting that programs may continue for many years before a majority of SSCI producers are reached. A field survey in six clusters of SSCI investigated the effectiveness of current programs to enhance the development of these industries. The analysis provides little evidence that the programs have a positive impact on employment in the less dynamic clusters of SSCI. In the very dynamic clusters, firms using a combination of technical and financial assistance were most successful in terms of employment generation. The study concludes that present assistance programs are not a ‘cause’ of employment growth in SSCI, but are accommodating such growth.     

基于多元回归法和灰色预测模型的江西丰城工业园融资需求预测分析

为了研究丰城市工业园区2012～2016年工业资金需求水平,笔者运用柯布一道格拉斯生产函数,以2005～2011年的工业增加值、就业人数和固定资产投资额为基本数据,在SPSS中运用多元回归法建立预测模型;再通过GM2008年灰色预测系统,运用灰色预测模型对工业增加值和就业人数进行预测,并进一步预测2012～2016年的资金需求和提出具有可行性的政策建议。     

上海市就业变动的实证分析——基于VAR模型

文章运用协整检验模型、VAR模型、脉冲响应分析等实证方法对上海市就业弹性系数与经济增长、产业结构变动、生产要素投入之间的关系进行检验。结果显示,经济增长、第二产业及第三产业的发展使就业弹性系数上升,促进了上海市就业增加。近年来经济增长及第二产业的发展逐渐进入了稳态,对促进就业的效应出现了边际递减,资本投入的增加对劳动力产生替代,影响了就业的稳定性;长期趋势来看,第三产业的就业吸纳能力强于二产业,产业结构变动的就业创造效应会增强。     

辽宁省产业结构与就业结构协调发展研究

产业结构与就业结构的协调发展是促进就业和经济持续稳定增长的必然要求,是考察一国或一地区产业结构调整合理化水平的重要指标。针对辽宁省产业结构与就业结构出现的不协调性问题,利用1978-2007年相关数据,采用结构偏离度、就业吸纳弹性等实证分析方法,得出二元经济体制惯性、资本密集型主导、科技含量低等是其形成的主要原因,最后提出了相应的对策建议。     

SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

改革开放以来中国第三产业经济增长与扩大就业的实证研究

文章依据我国改革开放以来第三产业经济增长与就业的相关资料，较为系统的分析了第三产业发展与扩大就业的现状及特点。分析认为，我国第三产业整体保持了较强的吸纳劳动力能力，并具备继续扩大就业的潜力。第三产业内部各行业就业增长弹性分化明显，高弹性组表现为以传统服务业为主、传统服务业与现代服务业相结合的特点。尽管我国第三产业发展过程中表现出一定的传统服务业向现代服务业的转轨特征，通过国际比较，第三产业传统服务业就业比重过低、新兴服务业就业比重不突出的特征明显。最后，文章提出了进一步发展我国第三产业的对策建议。     

Monetary and Nonmonetary Returns to Education in Indonesia

Some important aspects of returns to education in Indonesia have been neglected. This paper draws on the Indonesia Family Life Survey, a longitudinal survey, to shed some light on these aspects. This paper finds in a Mincerian specification that a more recent rate of return is in line with the rates found in previous research. A quantile regression is applied to show that the rate varies little in the conditional distribution of earnings, which stands in stark contrast to findings from some developed countries. In addition, the rate of return in self‐employment is estimated to be lower than that in paid employment for person‐ and sector‐specific reasons. In addition to monetary returns to education, happiness returns to education are considered. This paper advances evidence that education has important and robust implications for happiness above and beyond absolute and relative levels of income.     

新疆经济增长促进就业的效应分析

前不久中国社科院发布的2009年《社会蓝皮书》显示,中国中西部居民的就业压力较大,失业率超过10%,其中大中城市失业率约10.1%。本文就新疆经济发展的现状,从理论和实证两方面对经济增长的就业效应关系进行分析,尤其是运用就业弹性对其进行分析,得出结论并分析其原因,最后提出提高就业弹性、解决就业问题的措施。     

Empirical Analysis on Growth of Chinese Private Economy and Elasticity of Employment

This paper expatiates on the relationship between growth of Chinese private economy aria employment through the theory of elasticity of employment in economics. In the paper, the author has applied methods of empirical analysis to explain that the growth of Chinese private economy boosts employment and also probed into its political implication.     

山西产业结构变动对就业结构影响的实证研究

使用1978—2008年山西三次产业的就业人员和产值数据,运用回归模型以及结构偏离度和就业弹性两个分析工具,实证分析了山西产业结构变动对就业增长的影响。分析表明:山西就业结构的转变滞后于产业结构的转变,第一产业存在大量剩余劳动力,第二产业劳动吸纳能力不足,第三产业正在成为吸收劳动力的主要部门。要解决产业结构和就业结构的矛盾,缓解就业压力,必须深化产业结构调整、提高劳动者素质、加速制度创新。     

上海投资与经济增长对就业的拉动效应

采用上海1990～2010年时间序列数据,利用弹性分析及计量经济模型就投资、GDP对就业的拉动效应进行实证研究,得出如下结论：（1）上海近21年投资、GDP增长为扩大就业创造了有利条件,非农产业GDP就业弹性和投资就业弹性均具有显著的波动性,两者之间偏离程度逐渐拉大;（2）新增投资、新增GDP与新增就业的行业分布存在差异性;（3）政府投资对就业的拉动效应低于民间投资,但我们应该关注到民间投资占总投资的90％以上。对就业的拉动效应只比政府投资略高一些,并没有出现预期的民间资本投资带动大量就业的效果,建议政府将就业纳入优先目标中,并鼓励民间投资流向吸纳就业潜力大的领域。     

Korean Investment in Indonesia: Survey and Appraisal

This article offers the first systematic survey of Korean direct investment in Indonesia as it has developed during the past three decades. The survey includes a chronology and an overview based on macro level statistics. An assessment of the potential contribution of Korean direct investment to the Indonesian economy draws on both a corporate profile embracing a large number of companies and evidence from a small sample of selected individual firms. The article stresses a fundamental diversity in Korean investment in Indonesia that translates as potential benefits in terms of both new employment creation and technology transfers.     

Could a Resource Export Boom Reduce Workers’ Earnings? The Labour-Market Channel in Indonesia

For a decade from 2000, Indonesia underwent a natural-resource export boom. Aggregate income rose, but real labour earnings stagnated. Employment rose, too, but mainly in low-skill sectors with predominantly informal employment arrangements. In this article, we reveal causal connections from the aggregate phenomenon of Dutch disease to these labour-market outcomes. We first explain broad sectoral trends, and then, integrating data from several national surveys, investigate sources of variation in boom-era labour earnings. We use instrumental variables to address issues of endogeneity and selection in earnings equations. After controlling for individual and district features, we find that the intensity of palm oil production—palm oil having been a key booming resource export—robustly predicts diminished formal employment, and that lower formality, in turn, robustly predicts lower earnings. Our findings establish causal linkages absent from prior studies, and so provide a structural dimension to ongoing debates over persistent poverty, rising inequality, and the lack of educational progress in Indonesia.     

安徽省2005～2020年就业形势预测及对策

本文通过相关回归分析方法,在总结已有预测模型的基础上,联系安徽经济增长、就业容量的实际情况建立回归模型,分析和预测2005～2020年安徽劳动总量就业容量和结构的变化特征与趋势。本文认为,受人口发展规律及经济发展形势的影响,未来安徽省的就业将出现先富余、后不足的特点,出现的矛盾需要通过系统方法来解决。