Trade Policy Versus Competition Policy: Substitutes or Complements?

This paper deals with the difference between trade policy and competition policy for domestic prices, wages, and employment when product and labour markets are imperfectly competitive. We show that in the presence of country-specific institutions like trade unions, trade policy and competition policy are no longer substitutes in disciplining product and labour market distortions. While both domestic entry and foreign imports affect domestic price-cost margins, they differ in their effectiveness and their impact on the domestic labour market. The results in this paper suggest that enforcement of competition policy without a sufficient degree of openness to imports is typically not a first-best outcome. While domestic entry increases union welfare, foreign imports reduce it. Competition policy in the presence of labour unions is insufficient to reduce labour market distortions, while international competition reduces both labour and product distortions.     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

中国成品油定价机制：基于计量模型的一个解释

随着我国石油消费量不断增长、石油对外依存度不断上升,我国国内出现了“油价倒挂“、“油荒”等关系国计民生的严重问题。论文选取了2007年3月到2010年5月的国内成品油和国际原油市场价格数据通过实证研究发现：国际原油价格和国内物价总水平是影响我国成品油市场价格的两个主要因素,国内的成品油价格与国际原油市场挂钩的市场化改革的同时,争取做到与我国宏观经济运行周期和宏观调控政策相一致,才能保证能源的可持续利用。     

印度扩展非洲石油市场份额的策略

经济快速发展导致的能源需求大增以及国内石油资源储产量有限无法满足需要的现实,加剧了印度对海外石油的依赖,石油外交成为新时期印度维护石油供给安全的主要路径选择。随着非洲石油资源储产量的持续上升,在世界石油供给市场上作用的凸现,非洲成为印度新时期石油外交的重点地区之一。探究印度在非洲石油外交的背景、路径、成效及挑战,对客观评价印度对非洲石油外交的态势以及印非关系现状定有裨益。     

基于藤Copula的中外原油市场联动性研究

利用规则藤Copula模型对北大西洋布伦特原油(Brent)、西德克萨斯轻质原油(WTI)、迪拜(Dubai)、米纳斯(mns)、辛塔(xt)、大庆(dq)共6个原油市场进行建模，将6个地区原油市场间的联动性纳入一个模型之中，探讨金融危机前后我国与其他5个国际原油市场间的相依结构的变化。结果表明，金融危机的发生加深了国内外原油市场间的联动性；大庆作为藤结构第一棵树的根节点，与其他5个原油市场的联系最为紧密且均存在正向联动性，其中与米纳斯和辛塔的联动性最显著；北大西洋布伦特原油比美国西德克萨斯轻质原油对我国原油价格的影响更大。     

国内油价高涨的主因——基于VAR的实证分析

近年来．国际原油价格强势上扬，国内原油价格也不断上调。尽管一些学者从国内需求增加和国内外原油价格接轨的角度来说明目前原油和成品油的高位，但这些理论似乎都无法完全解释当前油价暴涨的现象。本文从原油和成品油的市场结构和定价机制出发，基于VAK模型证明了国内油价主要为短线预期带动所致．这种预期从国外传递到国内并导致了国内油价的上涨。因此通过改革油品的定价机制且完善和适当干预国内原油期货交易市场，可以打压这种非理性预期，抑制油价飙升的势头。     

国际石油冲击对中国经济的影响——基于国内油价滞后调整框架下的研究

我国越来越依赖国际石油市场,但并不随其变化而及时调整国内油价.这种滞后调整将在国际石油冲击及其治理中扮演什么角色?采用AS-AD框架,我们发现,当国内油价滞后调整时,宏观经济管理当局可以前瞻性地执行调节政策,从而降低石油冲击的不利影响.因为国内油价滞后调整是一种价格黏性,而且能够缩短调节政策本身可能具有的时滞.我们的发现不同于对石油冲击的传统理解,但能够获得基于中美实证分析的支持,有助于增进对完善我国油价定价机制的理解.     

Lead markets, innovation differentials and growth

This article suggests that the specialization of countries in international trade is determined by the lead-lag market pattern of national markets. Many internationally successful innovations have been adopted first in one country while other countries initially either preferred other designs or an established product. A model for the international diffusion of innovations is presented in which nationally preferred innovation designs compete to become a globally dominant design. In this model, there are country-specific market attributes that increase the likelihood that the choice a country makes among alternative technologies is followed around the world. It is argued that technological knowledge gaps are not the origin of an international competitive advantage. Instead, a country gains a competitive advantage because a specific innovation design was adopted earlier than in any other country. This gives local firms a head start in producing, gathering marketing intelligence and securing the property rights of a globally successful innovation. In countries with lag market characteristics, domestic innovations are less likely to get adopted worldwide. Lag markets often switch from a domestic innovation design to a foreign innovation design, which increases imports. The lead-lag market explanation of trade specialization has implications for national policies. In this model domestic innovations do not always foster exports; idiosyncratic innovations induced by lag market contexts can hamper the export chances of local firms and in the end lead to an increase in imports. It is suggested that in order to increase exports, national policies have to distinguish between a domestic lead and lag market context in each industry. While in a lead market context, traditional policy instruments that enhance the rate of innovations are effective, in a lag market situation national follower strategies are more appropriate.     

Tail Causality between Crude Oil Price and RMB Exchange Rate

In this paper we assess the causal relationship between international crude oil price changes and the RMB exchange rate using daily information from 21 July 2005 to 5 April 2017. In addition to linear causality tests, we employ quantile causality test to identify prior imperceptible causality in quantiles. We find a causal relationship from crude oil price to exchange rate at each quantile interval, but the reverse only appears in tail. This may help to explain why a traditional linear test fails to capture the causality from exchange rate to crude oil price as the quantile causalities in tails are canceled out by each other. Moreover, using RMB as the settlement currency in crude oil trade can weaken the prior significant causal relationships between crude oil price and exchange rate, whereas the reform of exchange rate marketization reignites the tail causalities from exchange rate to crude oil price. These findings recommend a wider use of domestic currencies in crude oil trade to avoid risk from the crude oil market.     

Economic Effects of Taxes on Exports of Palm Oil Products

In an effort to control increases in the prices of certain tradable commodities in recent years, the Indonesian government has experimented with a variety of policy interventions. Palm oil is important both as an export commodity and for household consumption in the form of cooking oil. We examine a palm oil export tax policy that ran from September 1994 through June 1997. We find that the taxes did reduce the domestic prices of palm oil products, and we estimate their effects on the distribution of income within Indonesia. Notably, we find that they actually reduced revenues of the government, and lowered profits for palm oil refiners. We also examine the efficiency effects and other aspects of the taxes. Finally, we discuss more drastic export restraints imposed more recently by the government during the economic crisis.     

外商直接投资、国内不完全金融市场与民营企业的融资约束——基于企业面板数据的经验分析

基于修正的欧拉投资方程,本文运用674家民营企业面板数据综合考察了FDI与国内不完全金融市场对民营企业融资约束的影响。研究发现:民营企业面临融资约束,而国有企业却不存在融资约束;FDI通过产品市场缓解了民营企业的融资约束,中小型及资本密集型企业得到缓解的程度最为明显;而在金融市场却对中小型和劳动密集型民营企业产生了挤出效应;国内不完全金融市场明显加剧了小型及劳动密集型民营企业的融资约束。     

The Competitive Impact of International Trade: The Case of Import Liberalization of the Japanese Oil Product Market

This paper analyzes the competitive impact of the recent import liberalization of the Japanese oil product market. In response to the import liberalization in March 1996, not only did the market price of gasoline decline sharply but also its domestic production kept rising and did not decline relative to imports. Moreover, its price fell substantially before the actual liberalization of the import. This paper demonstrates both theoretically and empirically that the theory of implicit cartel can explain such features of the impact of import liberalization very well. The paper also identifies the significantly positive welfare impact of such liberalization due to the expansion of supply in a market with a large tax wedge between price and cost and, possibly more importantly, due to the transformation of competitive conduct from unproductive investment for cartel-rent shifting into price cuts. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 1999, 13(4), pp. 397–423. Hitotsubashi University; and Keio University. Copyright 1999 Academic Press.Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: L40, F12, K21.     

基于Copula-GARCH模型的原油市场和股票市场相关性研究

由于原油市场和股票市场之间的联动性日益增强,因此研究两个市场之间的关联特征,分析原油价格波动对股市的影响,有助于规避风险,保证经济持续平稳地增长.采用Copula-GARCH模型对WTI原油价格的收益率序列和NASDAQ股指的收益率序列进行实证分析.结果表明,GARCH(1,1)-t模型拟合两个序列的条件边缘分布效果最好,时变SJC Copula模型比常相关Copula模型能更好地刻画两个市场之间的相关关系.两个收益率序列之间存在正的相关关系,且相关关系具有时变性,相关结构具有一定的不对称性,上尾相关系数小于下尾相关系数,即两个市场同时出现价格极端下跌的可能性更大.这为中国金融市场风险管理,规避油价波动对股市的冲击提供一定的参考依据.     

Determinants of shrimp importation into the USA: an application of an augmented gravity model

Shrimp farmers in the USA are facing the situation of increased imports resulting in reduced market share, falling prices, and reduced profitability for their farm-raised shrimp. The study examined the determinants of shrimp imports from China, Vietnam, Thailand, and Indonesia using an augmented gravity model of international trade. The results reveal that US imports from the four exporting countries are significantly affected by the GDP of exporting countries, GDP of the USA, exchange rate, unit import value (proxy for import price) of shrimp, and tariff. Tariff policy has implications for the US shrimp industry.     

煤炭行业的发展及其润滑油市场的开发

通过对国内煤炭行业基本状况、未来发展趋势和润滑油脂应用现状的分析,就如何运用现代营销手段与服务方式来开发维护煤炭行业这一巨大润滑油市场进行了讨论,认为润滑油行业应帮助煤炭行业建立完善的润滑管理体系,并与煤炭行业强技术领域合作,共同开发新产品及推进用油国产化。下游产品开发是煤炭行业今后重要的利润增长点,近期发展迅速,润滑油行业应密切关注其相关产业链设备的引进情况,及时提供所需润滑油品。     

Dynamic Comovements Between Housing and Oil Markets in the US over 1859 to 2013: a Note

In this study, we examine the dynamic comovements between housing and oil market returns in the United States over the period 1859–2013, while controlling for real gross domestic product growth, inflation, interest rates, and real stock, gold and silver returns that are known to affect both these markets. As such, we provide a bird’s-eye view on the interdependencies between these two markets from a historical perspective. The results of our empirical analysis reveal that comovements between housing and oil market returns are consistently negative over time, apart from several recessions the U.S. economy experienced in the 19th century, wherein correlations were positive.     

中俄油气合作:基础·权重·策略

俄罗斯油气资源潜力巨大,开采前景乐观。中俄油气合作的基础是供需互补潜力,不过,国际油气行情持续升温使两国合作的条件发生变化,合作目标和利益取向分歧扩大,合作出现阶段性徘徊。通过对中俄油气合作状况的分析可以大致确定至2020年前两国合作可能达到的规模和权重,这可以作为把握两国中期(至2020年)合作前景的重要尺度。从发展过程看,两国油气合作在经历"酝酿"和"启动"两个阶段后已经进入第三阶段,反映两国阶段性合作规模和权重比从零起步逐渐扩展到的实际进程。两国在现阶段的油气合作更具务实性,对此,中国应该积极借助新的有利条件推动合作的发展,争取双赢结果,确保自身能源安全。     

Japanese Investment in Indonesia: Problems and Prospects

The majority of Japanese investment in Indonesia is import-substitution orientated and located primarily in manufacturing. Declining Japanese investment in recent years is attributable partly to economic factors such as the drop in the price of oil and the higher cost of imports resulting from the devaluation of March 1983 But it is also due to Indonesian government policy. The author suggests a number of ways in which the Indonesian government could establish conditions more favourable to foreign investment.     

A Short-Run Crude Oil Price Forecast Model with Ratchet Effect

From 1992 through early 2004, crude oil prices were predictable by using OECD’s relative inventories and OPEC’s excess production capacity. However, since 2004, estimated inventories and excess production capacity under-predict crude oil prices. Using 3-D graphical analyzes, three regimes are identified in crude oil markets during the period from January 1992 to December 2007, reflecting market conditions and OPEC policy changes. These graphics show the changing relationship between crude oil price, inventories and excess production capacity. To reflect this, a ratchet variable, derived from cumulative excess production capacity, is incorporated into the forecasting model to reflect the changing behavior on both demand and supply sides. This model provides improved forecasts for the post Gulf War I time period over models without the ratchet mechanism.

Can Indonesia Secure a Development Dividend from Its Resource Export Boom?

Indonesia has enjoyed a long spell of sustained and relatively rapid economic expansion, largely on the back of strong commodity prices. No commodity boom lasts forever, however, and threats to the continuation of this growth are mounting. Indonesia now faces the challenge of locking in gains and setting a course to sustain future development in less favourable times. Post-2000 growth differs from earlier experience in that exports of agricultural products, especially palm oil, have played a leading role. In contrast to the country's earlier oil and gas export boom, the gains from agricultural export growth have accrued mainly to private actors, including corporations, smallholders, and the agricultural labour force, with a much smaller share passing through government budgets. The government can no longer simply mandate the use of funds for development purposes; many other actors and institutions are involved. It is reasonable to suppose that the benefits from such a decentralised export boom would be widely diffused, with relatively large effects on rural and farm households and lower-skilled workers. However, this boom has been accompanied by a sharp rise in inequality and virtually no real wage growth. Moreover, while spending rose robustly during the boom, it is not clear that poor, farm-based households have chosen (or been able) to use gains to smooth consumption or to invest for future generations. The capacity to lock in gains at micro and macro levels is subject to significant policy influence. In line with the maxim that ‘the time to repair a roof is when the sun is shining’, currently healthy global economic conditions present an opportune moment for Indonesian policymakers to take stock and to look ahead, with an eye to optimal development policy settings.