Housing market dynamics: Evidence of mean reversion and downward rigidity

House prices often exhibit serial correlation and mean reversion. Using two large panel datasets, this paper analyzes the price dynamics in two significantly different types of markets, cyclical (or volatile) and non-cyclical (or tame), by applying an autoregressive mean reversion (ARMR) model. Our results show that cyclical markets have larger AR coefficients than non-cyclical markets. As a result, house prices in cyclical markets tend to have larger price cycles. We also find that the upward periods have larger AR coefficients than the downward periods. This demonstrates that house prices are likely to overshoot the equilibrium in appreciating markets while experiencing downward rigidity during periods of decline. The model developed in this paper can produce a forecast with rich house price dynamics across markets. Our results can also be used to determine how house prices in overvalued markets will ultimately adjust.     

The behaviour of U.K. export prices of manufactured goods 1970–1983

This paper examines the importance of expectations in the determination of U.K. export prices. Export prices are found to depend upon expectations of total domestic unit costs and foreign prices. The non-linear restrictions implied by the forward-looking model are found to hold and it performs adequately relative to a backward-looking error feedback model. The law of one price is rejected and the evidence is consistent with imperfect competition in export markets.     

AGRICULTURAL PRICE INSTABILITY: A SURVEY OF COMPETING EXPLANATIONS AND REMEDIES

Abstract There are two explanations for agricultural price dynamics. One follows cobweb logic and models fluctuations driven by expectation errors but emphasises that these expectations create complex dynamics and possibly chaos. The other stems from the rational expectations tradition of dynamics driven by real shocks. The empirical evidence tends to support the latter, but is not conclusive. The rational expectations model generates an optimal dynamic path from which no improvement can be expected from public intervention. However, if we take account of all the potential market failures in agricultural markets, and especially in developing countries, this conclusion might require some qualifications, although an appropriate policy design for stability has still to be achieved. This paper surveys the positive and normative literature on agricultural prices, highlighting empirical evidence and identifying remaining unresolved issues.     

A cobweb model of land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops

We present a model of interacting cobweb markets and apply it to land-use competition between food and bioenergy crops. In our model the markets are interlinked on the supply side by the limited availability of land. Therefore, instabilities are transferred between the markets and we find that bioenergy demand affects food price volatility. The agents in the model have heterogeneous production capacities, representing variation in global land quality. When we allow agents to choose price predictor, we find that a more sophisticated (but costly) predictor is concentrated to some key parcels of land, which enables the system to reduce instability significantly. The system can also be brought closer to a stable state by introducing costs for changing production type, but it may then be shifted away from the optimum situation predicted by the corresponding equilibrium model.     

Consumer Search Ability,Price Dispersion and the Digital Divide

The ‘digital divide’ in online activities is believed to arise from differences in Internet access, but this paper advances an alternative explanation that is related to consumer search ability. It argues that this leads to greater price dispersion, causing some consumers to be discriminated against. It analyses price data for the UK Internet motor insurance market, collecting data on 32,255 prices for 110 sub‐markets, where differences in price dispersion across these by age, occupation and sex of the driver are argued to reflect differences in search ability. Allowing for price dispersion to also depend on the insurance risk, it finds greater price dispersion for consumers with weaker search abilities, i.e. older, unemployed, retired or female consumers. As this is not explained by alternative hypotheses, the paper concludes that improved Internet access alone will not close the ‘digital divide’. The implication is that policymakers should address the online search abilities of individuals as well as Internet access.     

Random shocks in experimental spot and forward auction markets

Traders face random demand and supply schedules in two experimental auction environments. One is the standard double auction and the other requires sellers to produce and hold inventory before trading. Inventories cannot be held between trading cycles. The endogenous and random cost of inventory disciplines sellers to restrict sales and keep prices relatively high. Anxious buyers may bid up price because total sales cannot exceed inventories. Shocks to the system do not change this behavior except when seller production costs are random. In this treatment, prices converge to the predicted competitive equilibrium. The inventory requirement in all cases increases the earnings of sellers relative to buyers.     

The asymmetric effect of crude oil prices on stock prices in major international financial markets

The aim of this paper is to explore the potential asymmetric impacts of positive and negative shocks in crude oil prices on stock prices in six major international financial markets which include China, Hong Kong, America, Japan, Britain, and Germany. We test for these asymmetric effects on 8 major international financial markets indices over the 2007M01–2020M03 periods. Our independent measures include the prices of Brent crude oil futures and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures. We use the nonlinear ARDL (NARDL) model proposed by Shin et al. (2014), which can capture both short- and long-run nonlinearities through positive and negative partial sum decompositions of the explanatory variables. This research finds that positive and negative fluctuations of oil price have asymmetric effects on stock price index in four financial markets, but the performance of the asymmetry is different. Specifically, the impacts of volatility in oil prices on two indices of Chinese stock prices are different, and the asymmetric effects of oil price volatility on stock price indices in China and other financial markets are significantly different.     

Consumer Cognition and Pricing in the Nines in Oligopolistic Markets

The paper fully characterizes the Bertrand equilibria of oligopolistic markets where consumers may ignore the last (i.e., the right-most) digits of prices. Consumers, in this model, do not do this reflexively or out of irrationality, but only when they expect the time cost of acquiring full cognizance of the exact price to exceed the expected loss caused by the slightly erroneous amounts that are likely to be purchased or the slightly higher price that may be paid by virtue of ignoring the information concerning the last digits of prices. It is shown that in this setting there will always exist firms that set prices that end in nine though there may also be some (nonstrict) equilibria where a non-nine price ending occurs. It is shown that all firms earn positive profits even in Bertrand equilibria. The model helps us understand in what kinds of markets we are most likely to encounter pricing in the nines.     

Illicit drug markets and economic irregularities

Markets for illicit drugs present an interesting case study for economics, combining non-standard characteristics such as addiction and product illegality. One response has been to argue the generality of economic principles by suggesting that they apply even in the extreme case of markets for addictive substances, e.g., by showing that demand for illicit goods is responsive to price [1] [Reframing health behavior change with behavioral economics. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; 2000. p. 89-111.] and even by modeling addiction as rational [2] [J Political Econ 1988;96:675-700]. This paper sketches examples of an alternative reaction, focusing on idiosyncrasies of drug markets that might plausibly create counter-intuitive effects, including supply curves that slope downward because of enforcement swamping and/or a good serving as the only available store of wealth for its producer, demand reduction programs that increase demand, and consumption by “jugglers” possibly increasing rather than decreasing as prices rise. This analysis yields non-obvious policy recommendations; for example, source country control programs should concentrate on growing regions with a healthy banking sector.     

The term structure of cross-sectional dispersion of expectations in a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment

In this paper, we present the results of a Learning-to-Forecast Experiment (LtFE) where we eliciting short- as well as long-run expectations regarding the future price dynamics in markets with positive and negative expectations feedback. Comparing our results on short-run expectations with the LtFE literature, we prove that eliciting long-run expectations has no impact on the price dynamics nor on short-run expectations formation. In particular, we confirm that the Rational Expectation Equilibrium (REE) is a good benchmark only for the markets with negative feedback. Interestingly, our data show that while the term structure of the cross-sectional dispersion of expectations is convex in positive feedback markets, it is concave in negative feedback markets. Differences in the slope of the term structure stem from diverse degrees of uncertainty regarding the evolution of prices in the two feedback systems: (1) in the negative feedback system, the convergence of the price to the REE reflects a tendency for coordination of long-run expectations around the fundamental value; (2) conversely, oscillatory price dynamics observed in the positive feedback system is responsible for the diverging pattern of long-run expectations. Finally, we propose a new measure of heterogeneity of expectations based on the scaling of the dispersion of expectations over the forecasting horizon.

     

Do house price developments spillover across euro area countries? Evidence from a global VAR

This paper empirically assesses the prospects for house price spillovers in the euro area, where co-movement in house prices across countries may be particularly relevant given a general trend with monetary union toward increasing linkages in trade, financial markets, and general economic conditions. A global VAR is estimated for three housing demand variables (real house prices, real per capita income, and the cost of borrowing, captured by a real long-term interest rate) on the basis of quarterly data for 7 euro area countries (Belgium, Germany, Ireland, Spain, France, Italy and the Netherlands), which together comprise nearly 90% of euro area GDP, over the period 1971–2009. The results suggest limited house price spillovers in the euro area, albeit with evidence of some overshooting in the first year after the shock, followed by a long run aggregate euro area impact of country-specific changes in real house prices related in part to the country’s economic weight. This contrasts with the impacts of a shock to domestic long-term interest rates, causing a permanent shift in house prices after 2–3 years. Underlying this aggregate development are rather heterogeneous house price spillovers at the country level, with a strong importance for weights – either economic or geographic – in governing their general magnitude. More generally, the impact of financing costs on house prices appears to have grown though time.     

Price and interest rate dynamics induced by multiperiod contracts

This paper suggests a mechanism by which nominal price rigidities can create a transmission mechanism for monetary shocks through relative price distortions in an economy with both spot and contract markets. The globally unique equilibrium time path of interest rates and prices following an impulse shock to the money supply is characterized. The model predicts that prices and interest rates cycle around the new steady state, with real interest rates initially falling and prices overshooting in the case of a positive shock. The volatility of spot prices and interest rates exceeds that of contract prices.     

Multiproduct price competition with heterogeneous consumers and nonconvex costs

This paper extends the oligopolistic model of price competition to environments with multiple goods, heterogeneous consumers, and arbitrary continuous cost functions. A Nash equilibrium in mixed strategies with an endogenous sharing rule is proven to exist. It is also shown that, in environments with fixed costs and constant marginal costs, all (symmetric and asymmetric) equilibria exhibit price dispersion across stores. Furthermore, the paper identifies scenarios in which prices will necessarily be random. In these markets, stores keep each other guessing because, given the fixed costs, they would incur a loss if their price strategies were anticipated and beaten by competitors. This is interpreted as an important economic feature that is possibly behind random price promotions such as weekly specials.     

Hassle Costs: The Achilles' Heel of Price-Matching Guarantees*

We show that price-matching guarantees can facilitate monopoly pricing only if firms automatically match prices. If consumers must instead request refunds (thereby incurring hassle costs), we find that any increase in equilibrium prices due to firms' price-matching policies will be small; often, no price increase can be supported. In symmetric markets price-matching guarantees cannot support any rise in prices, even if hassle costs are arbitrarily small In asymmetric markets, higher prices can be supported, but the prices fall well short of maximizing joint profits. Our model can explain why some firms adopt price-matching guarantees while others do not.     

China and international market integration: Evidence from the law of one price in the Middle East and Africa

We model market integration in the Middle East and Africa by analyzing price dispersion and testing the law of one price (LOP) on highly-comparable actual local retail prices of 135 goods and services across 23 countries in the region over the period of 1990–2016. Second-generation panel estimators are applied to four price benchmarks: Regional average, South Africa, China, and US prices. Cross-regional price dispersion diminishes considerably over time up to 2008, particularly for non-tradeables around China price. The test of LOP indicates the percentage of convergent prices is highest in China price benchmark, followed by US, South Africa, and regional average benchmarks. Direct estimation of the convergence speed confirms this order. Overall, the results show evidence of increasing market integration in Middle East and Africa but it appears to be driven by global forces and, especially, the rise of China as a new economic power. The results show that some emerging market economies, such as China, can step up and promote integration while traditional economic powerhouses, such as the USA and UK, disengage from international economic relations.     

The Substitution Theorem in Urban Consumer Theory

This paper presents two nonparametric approaches to urban household location theory. For each model two sets of own price substitution theorems are presented, one for goods whose prices vary spatially and one for goods whose prices do not vary spatially in the market area. The usual substitution theorem derived in nonspatial demand theory is seen to hold for goods whose prices do not vary spatially. Goods whose prices vary spatially, however, reveal a significant departure from standard demand theory in that the substitution theorem is shown to hold unambiguously only for "parallel" shifts in spatial price surfaces. Further, the results are robust, extending to consumers in nonmonocentric urban areas, regardless of consumer tastes for travel distance or labor/leisure choice complications.     

House price convergence in euro zone and non-euro zone countries

This study investigates whether single currency use increased house price convergence among various countries. First, the panel unit root test results indicate that the house prices in euro zone countries were more correlated than the house prices in non-euro zone countries. Second, the house prices in various European countries converged towards the house prices in Germany, which uses the single currency, rather than towards those in the United Kingdom, indicating that single currency use increased the influence of the German housing market on other markets. Finally, the log t regression model, a new convergence test, was employed and determined that the house prices in various European countries were not converging before 1992 but began to do so after that year. After the euro was implemented as an official currency, the house prices in various countries converged towards a consistent level. On the basis of the relative transition paths, this study determines that the differences among housing markets in various countries have continuously decreased since 1992. The empirical results indicate that the law of one price is applicable to tradable goods and that single currency use can integrate housing markets, which include non-tradable goods.     

Models of Competitive Price Promotions: Some Empirical Evidence from the Coffee and Saltine Crackers Markets

I present tests of a competitive rationale for price promotions. In a model with a population of informed and uninformed customers, price competition yields a static equilibrium in which each seller draws a price from a specified density function. Price data on coffee and saltine crackers products are used to test whether the sample of prices on each product could have possibly come from the theoretically specified density function. The results suggest that some markets are indeed consistent with the marginal distributions of prices predicted by the model. Furthermore, in the process of testing this rationale for price promotions, estimates are obtained for the marginal cost of each product, the number of competing goods, and the percentage of informed consumers. The resulting excess variability of these estimates across competing brands can also raise questions with respect to the empirical validity of the model.     

Asymmetric Price Adjustment and Consumer Search: An Examination of the Retail Gasoline Market

This article proposes a new explanation for why retail prices respond more quickly to cost increases than cost decreases. I develop a search model that assumes consumers’ expectations of prices are based on prices observed during previous purchases. This model predicts that consumers search less when prices are falling, which results in higher profit margins and a slower price response to cost changes. I then empirically examine patterns of retail gasoline price response and price dispersion to show that this model predicts observed price behavior better than previously suggested explanations.     

The effect of patent expiration on the market position of drugs

A sample of 12 major drugs is used to examine the effect of patent expiration on market shares and prices in the US market. The results indicate that patent expiration has, at least for the first few years, only a small effect on the market shares and prices of the original drags. Efforts to increase price competion in drug markets, however, may change this situation in the future. The declining effective patent period for drugs and the declining profitability of drug innovation raise the concern that efforts to foster price competition might result in lower levels of innovation.