民营企业跨国并购战略的制度创业过程研究

本研究采用案例研究方法,通过对中国林德集团收购德国帕西姆机场过程的分析,探索了新兴市场企业在成熟市场跨国并购过程中通过制度创业实现资源整合从而创造竞争优势的过程。本研究从制度视角探索了跨国并购的制度创业动因、机制和资源整合路径。突破了以往基于成熟市场的交易成本理论和组织学习理论通过股东收益和组织学习能力获取的传统跨国并购理论认识范式。研究发现,制度环境会影响组织通过制度创业建构合法性从而获得竞争优势资源;企业决策者的创业意愿和能力会影响企业制度创业成果;决策者意愿和能力与制度环境的互动机制影响制度创业效率;企业场域位势的嵌入程度较低以及处于业务和制度边界交界地带的企业,会实施制度创业改变企业的场域位势;企业通过制度创业跨越制度障碍形成的合法性成为企业新的竞争优势资源。     

Individual versus institutional investors and the weekend effect

Since the late 1980’s, considerable research has focused on the behavior of individual versus institutional investors and the potential patterns which may emerge from their trading activities. Miller (1988) and Abraham and Ikenberry (1994) posit that the tendency for negative Monday returns on equity (i.e., the weekend effect) is at least partially explained by the trading behavior of individual investors. Sias and Starks (1995), on the other hand, present empirical evidence showing a dominant role played by institutional traders. This study contributes to the literature by distinguishing between individual versus institutional trading as it relates to the weekend effect. We find that the information-processing hypothesis is consistent with observed institutional trading patterns, thus supporting the results of Sias and Starks (1995). In addition, these results are shown to be robust with respect to market type (i.e., auction and dealer markets).     

Adverse Selection,Gresham's Law and State Regulation

Regulation is often justified as a response to adverse selection caused by poorly informed buyers and as a means of preventing a ‘race to the bottom’ in competitive markets. This paper argues that competitive markets respond with a variety of institutional mechanisms to problems of adverse selection and that these are often subverted by regulation. Far from Gresham's Law being associated with competitive market processes, it is actually more correctly viewed as the outcome of regulatory intervention that weakens the quality‐protecting incentives that economic agents would otherwise face.     

An empirical test of individual and institutional trading patterns in Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan

We examine the pattern of daily stock returns in Japan, Hong Kong, and Taiwan. Our results support the information-processing hypothesis: Average returns on Monday are lower than on other days of the week, particularly when the previous trading day’s return is negative. Our results also support the positive-feedback-trading hypothesis: Daily returns exhibit positive autocorrelation, particularly when the previous trading day’s return is positive. Further analysis reveals that institutional investors (Japan), individual investors (Taiwan), or both (Hong Kong) can cause these patterns. Our findings are consistent with the relative importance of institutional and individual investors in each of these markets. We thank three anonymous reviewers for helpful comments and suggestions.     

Research Investment and the Economic Returns To Chinese Agricultural Research

This article measureseconomic returns to research investment in Chinese agricultureusing the production function approach. A stock-of-knowledgevariable constructed from the past research investment is directlyincluded in the production function as an explanatory variablein the production function. Improved rural infrastructure, irrigation,and education are also included as explanatory variables to avoidthe upward bias in the estimates of returns to agricultural research.A two-way variable coefficients technique is used in the estimationto reduce estimation biases due to the remaining measurementand omitted variables problems. Sensitivity analyses are conductedto test the effects of various lag structures on the return estimates.The results show that rates of return to research investmentin Chinese agriculture are high, ranging from 36% to 90% in1997, and the rates are increasing over time.     

Longshots,overconfidence and efficiency on the Iowa Electronic Market

We study the forecast accuracy and efficiency of popular “binary” prediction markets. Such markets forecast probabilities for future states of the world (e.g., election winners) by paying off $0 or $1 depending on the realized state (e.g., who actually wins). To assess accuracy, forecast probabilities must be compared to realization frequencies, not individual realizations. We use Iowa Electronic Market (IEM) data to test efficiency against two alternative propositions from behavioral finance: the longshot bias and the overconfidence bias (which yield opposing predictions). No longshot bias appears in IEM markets. Nor does overconfidence influence prices at short horizons. However, overconfident traders may bias prices at intermediate horizons. While the markets are efficient at short horizons, non-market data indicate some intermediate-horizon inefficiency. We calculate Sharpe ratios for static trading strategies and document returns for dynamic trading strategies to assess the economic content of the inefficiencies.     

Wages and the City. Evidence from Italy

We analyze empirically the impact of urban agglomeration on Italian wages. Using micro-data from the Bank of Italy's Survey of Household Income and Wealth for the years 1995, 1998, 2000 and 2002 on more than 22,000 employees distributed in 242 randomly drawn local labor markets, we test whether the structure of wages varies with urban scale. We find that every additional 100,000 inhabitants in the local labor market raises earnings by 0.1 percent. The use of a geographical approach enables us to state that this effect decays very rapidly with distance, losing significance beyond approximately 12 kilometers. We also find that urbanization does not affect returns to experience and that it reduces returns to education and to tenure with current firm, while providing a premium to worker supervisors.     

Informational efficiency and behaviour within in-play prediction markets

Studies of financial market informational efficiency have proven burdensome in practice, because it is difficult to pinpoint when news breaks and is known by some or all the participants. We overcome this by designing a framework to detect mispricing, test informational efficiency and evaluate the behavioural biases within high-frequency prediction markets. We demonstrate this using betting exchange data for association football, exploiting the moment when the first goal is scored in a match as major news that breaks cleanly. There are pre-match and in-play mispricing and inefficiency in these markets, explained by reverse favourite-longshot bias (favourite bias). The mispricing tends to increase when the major news is a surprise, such as a goal scored by a longshot team late in a match, with the market underestimating their chances of going on to win These results suggest that, even in prediction markets with large crowds of participants trading state-contingent claims, significant informational inefficiency and behavioural biases can be reflected in prices.     

The efficiency of training and hiring with intrafirm bargaining

This paper demonstrates that firms hire and train workers efficiently in a matching and intrafirm bargaining economy when the Hosios condition holds and returns to scale are constant. This conclusion stands in contrast to the prevailing view that training costs are a source of inefficiency in imperfect labor markets. The efficiency of the competitive economy relies on the ability of large firms to take into account the negative impact of the training rate on the wages negotiated inside the firm through intrafirm bargaining: untrained workers accept a wage reduction in compensation for potential training that is accessible only following employment. This intrafirm bargaining process solves efficiency problems associated with training costs that would otherwise lead to inefficient hiring and training decisions. This conclusion holds true for both specific and general human capital.     

The Productivity Slowdown, Sectoral Reallocations and the Growth of Atypical Employment Arrangements

This paper explores the recent shifts in employment arrangements away from long-term employment contracts and internal labor markets towards outside contracting of labor in OECD countries. It examines the driving forces behind this phenomenon, focusing on the relationship with another important trend of the last few decades, namely the labor productivity slowdown. A comparison of U.S. and European institutional arrangements shows how very different labor markets have recently displayed similar patterns in the use of contracted out labor. This paper explains these similarities and reconciles them with very different patterns in hiring, firing, and quitting behavior observed in the two regions.     

Credit market constraints and labor market decisions

In this paper, we examine whether imperfections in credit markets spill over to other markets, particularly the labor market. We take the case of Italy, a country that experienced changes in the mortgage market brought about by the 1992 European unification and other institutional shifts. These events make Italy a good laboratory to study the effects of financial markets on the labor market. Using household data from the Bank of Italy between 1989 and 1993, we estimate the relationship between female participation and mortgage use. We find a significant impact of mortgages on women's participation in the labor market.     

Institutions for Financial Development: What are they and where do they come from?

Abstract.  Among the fundamental causes of long-run economic performance, differences in 'institutions' have received considerable attention in recent years. At the same time, a large body of theoretical and empirical work shows that financial development can have a big effect on economic performance. This raises the more fundamental question as to why some countries have developed financial markets while others do not. This paper reviews the theoretical and empirical research on this issue and shows that one of the channels whereby better institutions may have an effect on economic development is through the consolidation of larger and better financial markets. An issue that is left aside in this paper relates to what regulations and policies lead to better functioning capital markets. At some level, one can think of regulations and policies as particular types of institutions. Nonetheless, institutional problems are deeper causes leading to poor economic performance; bad policies might simply be part of the channels through which they influence performance. Thus, addressing the question of what determines the emergence of 'good' institutions – i.e. institutions that promote financial development – seems particularly important. Recent research providing some answers to this question is also reviewed.     

Investment, expropriation, and unionization

In this paper, I examine an economy where output is produced from labor, capital and public services, and where firms and labor unions bargain over labor conditions and lobby the government over union bargaining power and public services. I compare three institutional cases: (a) competitive wage settlement, (b) bargaining over wages and employment, and (c) bargaining over wages only. I show that in cases (a) and (b) the government expropriates investment rents, but right-to-manage bargaining (c) protects investors from this expropriation.      

Trends in occupational mobility in France: 1982–2009

Are labor markets more turbulent now than thirty years ago? Most job and worker flows imply that the answer is “no”, with one exception: occupational mobility, which increased substantially in the United States. This paper remedies the lack of comparable evidence by focusing on France for the years 1982 to 2009. After correcting for various statistical biases and discrepancies that affect the measurement of occupational mobility, it documents this reallocation process overall and in different subgroups. The data reveal that, over the period considered, the fraction of workers switching occupation exhibits no trend in the aggregate because changing demographics mask increases in mobility within several age and education groups. After taking these composition effects into account, occupational mobility increased sharply in France as well.     

Governance and stock market performance

This study uses international asset pricing models to investigate the link between the quality of government institutions and the performance of global stock markets. The results demonstrate a significant positive association between stock market performance measures and the quality of the institutional environment. Performance measures examined for the cross-section of countries were the average monthly stock index excess returns and the Sharpe ratio. All measures of performance were adjusted for global and local risk factors known to explain their international variation. The quality of governance is also found to be negatively associated with stock market total risk and idiosyncratic risk, consistent with the notion that stable institutions are linked to reduced variations in equity returns. These findings suggest countries with better-developed governance systems have stock markets with higher returns on equity and lower levels of risk. The results lend support for the view that a precondition for financial market development is the improvement of the institutions which govern the process of exchange.     

Which institutional investors matter for firm survival and performance?

Using data that spans three decades, we assess the diverse roles of institutional investors in impacting survival and performance of chronically underperforming firms and contrast the results for consistently overperforming firms. We find material differences in investor roles and investment returns between these samples. Differentiating among institutional types, controlling for prior performance and attrition bias provides insights unattainable by examining aggregated holdings. For underperformers, results are negative for activist pension funds and long-term institutions, positive for activist hedge funds and short-term institutions, and mixed for institutional blockholders.     

Spillovers of currency carry trade returns,market risk sentiment,and U.S. market returns

This paper examines the link between spillovers of currency carry trade returns and U.S. market returns. Following Tse and Zhao (2012), this paper hypothesizes that the magnitude of spillovers of currency carry trade returns is positively correlated with market risk sentiment and, therefore, has an impact on market returns. Using the G10 currencies and S&P 500 index futures, the empirical results present a high magnitude of spillover effects of currency carry trade markets. The empirical findings also show a significantly positive relationship between spillovers of currency carry trade returns and subsequent market returns. Furthermore, the results indicate that this relationship is stronger in bear markets than in bull markets. Finally, our findings show that spillovers of currency carry trade returns significantly affect the subsequent transition probabilities of market returns.     

Trade,Technology and the Labour Market: The Case of South Africa*

This study advances previous work on the effects of trade and technological change on labour markets within the framework of Heckscher–Ohlin trade theory. We provide evidence for an unskilled labour abundant developing country by employing dynamic heterogeneous panel estimation techniques. For South African manufacturing, trade‐mandated increases in earnings are positive for labour and negative for capital whilst technology‐mandated increases are negative for both factors. We also find it important to take account of endogeneity issues in analysing the impact of technology and price changes on factor returns and in isolating factor‐ and sector‐bias of technological changes.     

Gradual information diffusion and contrarian strategies

Various rational and behavioral models have been proposed to explain contrarian portfolio returns. In this article, I test the gradual information diffusion model of Hong and Stein [Hong, H., & Stein J. C. (1999). A unified theory of underreaction, momentum trading, and overreaction in asset markets. Journal of Finance, 54, 2143–2184]. Specifically, I study contrarian strategies based on past long-term returns and fundamental value-to-price ratios. Using ex post returns as a proxy for expected returns and size-controlled analyst coverage as a proxy for the rate of information diffusion, I show that contrarian portfolio returns decline monotonically with increasing rates of information diffusion. These results are consistent with the predictions of the Hong and Stein model. In addition, I show that analyst coverage is more important among glamour than value stocks, supporting the view that investors are more prone to decision biases when it comes to pricing hard-to-value glamour stocks for which information is relatively more ambiguous.     

Return and Risk Premium Seasonalities in three Emerging Asian Markets: Hong Kong,Korea and Taiwan*

In this study, we find that seasonal return patterns differ from that implied by risk premiums in three emerging Asian markets; namely, Hong Kong, Korea and Taiwan. Positive January seasonal returns are found in the Hong Kong and Taiwan markets, while positive February seasonal returns are also found in Taiwan. These findings suggest that investors should place their money in these markets during January but not for the months of June and December in Korea, and for the months of May and November in Taiwan. Corporate managers should also be aware of the need to adjust for such seasonal variations when they use market data to evaluate the risk premium or required rate of return for projects in these markets. The results also show that the size effect may also be priced in some of these markets.