Modeling the diffusion of general purpose technologies in an evolutionary multi-sector framework

General purpose technologies (GPTs) are characterized by their pervasive use in the economy. The introduction of a new GPT (product innovation) as well as increasing productivity within a GPT-sector (as a consequence of process innovations) affect the economy in several ways. First, a new GPT offers the opportunity to produce goods by means of cheaper processes; secondly, technical change within the GPT sector influences productivity gains in related sectors. Also social consequences such as changing wage share, technical unemployment and transitional wage inequality can be observed. Finally, the emergence of a GPT often coincides with output decline, preceding economic growth. This paper introduces a multi-sector diffusion model to study these effects by combining classical economics and replicator-dynamics. Empirical evidence is given by the information and communication technology sector in Denmark and its impact on the economic structure from 1966 to 2007.     

The dynamic effects of general purpose technologies on Schumpeterian growth

General purpose technologies (GPTs) are drastic innovations characterized by pervasiveness in use and innovational complementarities. The dynamic effects of a GPT are analyzed within a quality-ladders model of scale-invariant Schumpeterian growth. The diffusion path of a GPT across a continuum of industries is governed by S-curve dynamics. The model generates a unique, saddle-path long-run equilibrium. Along the transition path, the measure of industries that adopt the new GPT increases, consumption per capita falls, and the interest rate rises. The growth rate of the stock market depends negatively on the rate of GPT diffusion and the magnitude of the GPT-ridden R&D productivity gains; and positively on the rate of population growth. It also follows a U-shaped path during the diffusion process of the new GPT. Finally, the model generates transitional growth cycles of per capita GNP.JEL Classification: E3, O3, O4I would like to thank Elias Dinopoulos for encouragement, and for constructive comments and suggestions. I would also like to thank David Figlio, Douglas Waldo, Steven Slutsky and participants in the 9th Biennial Congress of the International Schumpeter Society for useful discussions and suggestions. Any remaining errors are my own responsibility.     

Long-term growth driven by a sequence of general purpose technologies

We present a Schumpterian model of endogenous growth with General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) that captures two important historical stylized facts: First, from the beginning of mankind until today GPTs are arriving at an increasing frequency and, second, all GPTs heavily depended on previous technologies. In our model, the arrival of GPTs is endogenous and arises stochastically depending on the currently available applied knowledge stock. This way of endogenizing the arrival of new GPTs allows for a model which is more in tune with the historical reality than the existing GPT models.     

General purpose technologies in theory,application and controversy: a review

Distinguishing characteristics of General Purpose Technologies (GPTs) are identified and definitions discussed. Our definition includes multipurpose and single-purpose technologies, defining them according to their micro-technological characteristics, not their macro-economic effects. Identifying technologies as GPTs requires recognizing their evolutionary nature, and accepting possible uncertainties concerning marginal cases. Many of the existing ‘tests’ of whether particular technologies are GPTs are based on misunderstandings either of what GPT theory predicts or what such tests can establish. The development of formal GPT theories is outlined, showing that only the early theories predicted the inevitability of GPT-induced showdown and surges. More recent GPT theories, designed to model the characteristics of GPTs, do not imply the necessity of specific macro effects. We show that GPTs can rejuvenate the growth process without causing slowdowns or surges. We conclude that existing criticisms of GPT theory can be resolved and that the concept remains useful for economic theory.     

ICT and productivity: conclusions from the empirical literature

Innovation drives economic competitiveness and sustained long-term economic growth. Especially the emergence and intensive utilization of information and communication technologies (ICTs), which spawned the beginning of the digital economy two decades ago, heavily affected the opportunities and efficiency of how firms produce and provide goods and services. We provide an overview of the empirical literature on ICT and productivity and highlight the main results and methodological differences. The majority of studies indicates that the productivity effect of ICT is indeed positive and significant. However, methodological approaches of how to appropriately estimate the ICT effect matter. While aggregate and sectoral growth accounting exercises suggest stronger differences of the ICT effect between US and Europe, firm-level analyses suggest no significant country differences. Moreover, we shed light on the notion of ICT being a General Propose Technology (GPT) enabling further innovations. Most of the GPT evidence on ICT is found for the US, while evidence for European countries is harder to come by. However, more theoretical and empirical research is needed to better understand spillovers and externalities of ICT and how these technologies transform our economies.     

Nanotechnology as general-purpose technology: empirical evidence and implications

Developments in nanotechnology are poised to have a pervasive effect on various industries for years to come and nanotechnology management research is beginning to appear in peer-reviewed management journals. Much of the research on this early, emergent technology is focused on issues of definition and identification of technology type. In this study, we searched the US Patents and Trademarks Office database and used an expert validation methodology to develop a sample of the first 25 years (1980–2004) of nanotechnology patenting activity. We analysed this data for early evidence that nanotechnology is a general-purpose technology (GPT) – a transformative technology characterised by its pervasiveness, improvement over time, and pattern of diffusion. Our findings indicate that nanotechnology patenting activity has been growing in intensity and relative to overall patenting activity, and that it is pervasive across industry and technology sectors. Implications of nanotechnology as a GPT are discussed.     

FDI对中国经济发展影响的实证分析与政策建议

FDI对中国经济发展的影响主要表现为:(1)外商投资企业劳动力的就业增量对于经济增长的负效应要小于其他类型企业的就业增量对经济增长的负效应;(2)FDI规模扩大对就业具有直接的创造效应,但对其他类型企业的就业具有一定的负面效应;(3)外商投资企业的出口与世界经济增长和我国的经济增长具有很强的相关性,但与FDI只有较弱的相关性;(4)FDI对于内资企业模仿和学习先进技术具有明显的溢出效应,但对内资企业自主创新能力的提高的溢出效应不大。     

农产品对外贸易促进农民增收的区域差异——基于中国省际面板数据的实证分析

运用中国1999—2008年29个省(直辖市、自治区)的面板数据,实证了中国农产品对外贸易促进农民增收的区域差异。结果显示:东、中部地区农产品进、出口依存度与农民收入增长正相关,且中部地区要明显强于东部地区;西部地区农产品进、出口依存度与农民收入增长负相关。在对实证结果进行讨论和解释的基础上,就中国农产品对外贸易促进农民收入增长提出了政策建议。     

Long-run Effective Demand in the US Economy: An Empirical Test of the Sraffian Supermultiplier Model

The Sraffian supermultiplier is a model of demand-led growth that stresses the importance of the autonomous components of aggregate demand (exports, public spending and autonomous consumption). This article tests empirically some major implications of the model employing macroeconomic data for the United States. In particular, we study the long-run relation between autonomous demand and output through cointegration analysis. The results suggest that autonomous demand and output are cointegrated and that autonomous demand exerts a long-run effect on output. There is also some evidence of simultaneous causality, especially in the short-run. Movements in autonomous demand and in the investment share are also found to be positively related, with Granger-causality going from Z to I/Y.     

服务外包与产业链长度：来自中国的经验证据*

本文参考Antrs et al（2012）方法，利用中国1997年、2002年、2007年、2012年和2017年投入产出表测度30个省份17个细分行业的产业链长度，并在此基础上分析服务外包对延伸产业链长度的作用。实证结果表明：第一，从整体上看，服务外包对我国产业链长度攀升具有显著促进作用，服务外包每提高10%，可以促进我国产业链长度提升062%。第二，从细分类型的服务外包看，交通仓储外包对产业链长度延伸的促进作用最大。第三，分地区研究发现，服务外包对中部地区产业链长度提升最大，其次是西部地区，东部地区最小。第四，分行业后发现，服务外包对制造业和服务业产业链长度均有提升作用，但是对服务业促进作用是制造业的近2.7倍。     

Functional income distribution and effective demand in India: An applied post Keynesian model

This article is an attempt to understand the relationship between functional income distribution and aggregate demand in India. To this end, the article (a) highlights trends in growth and class distribution of income in India; (b) constructs a post Keynesian macro model that links short run growth with profit share, where the latter is itself driven by movements in output and real exchange rate; (c) discusses and, wherever required, estimates key parameters relevant to the Indian case; and (d) simulates the model and discusses the effect of shocks to distributive as well as autonomous demand variables on growth performance. The article finds that, although a possibility of wage-led growth in India cannot be ruled out, by and large, distributive shocks do not have a strong impact on output growth. On the other hand, an increase in public expenditure growth, although it has a strong effect on output growth, tilts income distribution toward profit earners. A comprehensive agenda involving greater public expenditure and higher wages to stimulate growth and improve distribution is therefore recommended.     

服务外包与产业链长度：来自中国的经验证据*

本文参考Antrs et al（2012）方法，利用中国1997年、2002年、2007年、2012年和2017年投入产出表测度30个省份17个细分行业的产业链长度，并在此基础上分析服务外包对延伸产业链长度的作用。实证结果表明：第一，从整体上看，服务外包对我国产业链长度攀升具有显著促进作用，服务外包每提高10%，可以促进我国产业链长度提升062%。第二，从细分类型的服务外包看，交通仓储外包对产业链长度延伸的促进作用最大。第三，分地区研究发现，服务外包对中部地区产业链长度提升最大，其次是西部地区，东部地区最小。第四，分行业后发现，服务外包对制造业和服务业产业链长度均有提升作用，但是对服务业促进作用是制造业的近2.7倍。     

Banking, contract enforcement and economic growth

We develop a new model that links credit contracts enforcement to banking emergence and economic growth. It is shown that the development process is composed of three stages. In the first stage, the economy develops slowly due to a primitive technology of capital accumulation. The second stage marks the emergence of banking and the substitution of the primitive technology by a more productive modern technology that enhances growth. Finally in the third stage, our model enables the realization of a dynamic capital accumulation scenario without credit rationing. Another finding is that a reduction in the enforcement cost accelerates the emergence of the banking system.     

数字普惠金融、政府干预与县域经济增长*——基于门限面板回归的实证分析#br#

数字普惠金融提高了县域经济体的信贷可得性,有助于县域经济增长,而其发展过程离不开政府的支持和引导。本文运用2014-2018年县级面板数据,通过门限面板回归模型研究政府干预在数字普惠金融影响县域经济增长时的调节作用。研究发现：(1)数字普惠金融对县域经济增长有显著的促进作用,且政府干预起到调节作用。同时,子指标回归显示,数字普惠金融覆盖广度与县域经济增长负相关;数字化程度和使用深度对县域经济增长有促进作用,政府干预的作用与主回归一致。(2)数字普惠金融通过完善传统金融市场结构促进县域经济增长。(3)分地区看,东部地区数字普惠金融与县域经济增长负相关;中部地区和西部地区数字普惠金融对县域经济增长均有促进作用。其中,中部地区政府的调节作用是单向的,西部地区则为倒U型,本文分析了地区差异的内在原因并提出政策建议。     

Cycles and Growth: A Source of Demand-Driven Endogenous Growth

This paper moves in a theoretical context in which the level of economic activity is dependent on aggregate demand in both the long and the short period. It shows that given two simple hypotheses, the economy will exhibit a tendency to grow independently of any increase in the average level of ongoing investment (or any other type of ‘autonomous’ demand) over time. The two hypotheses are (a) that investment oscillates over time and (b) that the community's marginal propensity to consume is lower when income contracts in slumps than when it increases in booms. This points to a source of growth that is as endogenous to the system, as trade cycles are.     

Modeling the impact of education on the economic growth: Evidence from aggregated and disaggregated time series data of Pakistan

Motivated by the recent studies on the endogenous growth theories, which suggest that the economic growth driven by human capital accumulated by education has potential to be substantial and more sustainable, this article evaluates the level and growth effects of education on the economic growth of Pakistan over the period of 1960 to 2010. Non-linear two stage least square instrumental variable (NLTSLS-IV) estimators have been used for estimating the error correction model. Our estimated production function clearly indicates that there is a positive effect of different levels of education on the economic growth of Pakistan. Therefore, we find support for the hypothesis that the investments in education sector may raise the economic growth of the country.     

Growth Rate and Level Effects,the Stability of the Adjustment of Capacity to Demand and the Sraffian Supermultiplier

Abstract

The paper presents a simple but complete formal version of the Sraffian supermultiplier model in which (i) growth is led by the autonomous components of demand that do not create capacity; (ii) private productive investment is an induced expenditure; and (iii) income distribution is exogenous. We show that the main results of the long-period and fully adjusted versions of the model in terms of growth rate and level effects are quite similar and therefore that such results in no way require the full adjustment of capacity to demand. We then analyze a simple set of sufficient dynamic local stability conditions that allow the long-period positions to gravitate towards the fully adjusted position in which capacity is adjusted to demand and that also provide the upper limit to demand-led growth paths. Finally, we show how some critics of the model have misinterpreted it as being supply-led and how this has led to a further confusion between the analysis of the tendency towards a constant value of the capacity-saving-determined warranted rate of growth and the proper stability analysis of the opposite process of adjusting capacity to demand (which tends to adjust the warranted rate endogenously to the growth rate of autonomous demand).     

要素市场扭曲下农业绿色全要素生产率测度及效应研究

基于非径向非角度的SBM方向性距离函数构建Malmquist生产率指数,考虑碳排放和农业面源污染等非期望产出,测算中国28个省份1997—2018年农业绿色全要素生产率,最后采用空间杜宾模型探讨要素市场扭曲下农业绿色全要素生产率空间影响。研究结果表明:考虑碳排放和农业面源污染等非期望产出的农业绿色全要素生产率更符合中国农业高质量绿色发展的实际水平;中国农业全要素生产率提升多数源于农业技术进步,较少出现农业技术进步和技术效率双轮助推的情形;农业绿色全要素生产率呈现增长趋势,但增速较缓慢,且不同地域存在显著差异;要素市场扭曲抑制了农业绿色全要素生产率提升,具有空间溢出效应。     

The past and future of knowledge-based growth

This paper consolidates two previously disconnected literatures. It integrates R&D-based innovations into a unified growth framework with micro-founded fertility and schooling behavior. The theory suggests a refined view on the human factor in productivity growth. It helps to explain the historical emergence of R&D-based growth and the subsequent emergence of mass education and the demographic transition. The model predicts that the erstwhile positive correlation between population growth and innovative activity turns negative during economic development. This “population-productivity reversal” explains why innovative modern economies are usually characterized by low or negative population growth. Because innovations in modern economies are based on the education of the workforce, the medium-run prospects for future economic growth—when fertility is going to be below replacement level in virtually all developed countries—are better than suggested by conventional R&D-based growth theories.     

The process of technology evolution : Multitechnology innovations as the driving force

Technological innovations are the substance of technology and the drivers of its evolution. This process was studied by analyzing the US patent data base, getting information on types of innovation and on their trends.It was found that the evolution of a technology depends upon its annexing multitechnology innovations. Ascending technologies utilize wide-range innovations, while mature technologies utilize narrow-range innovations. The findings are summed up in a model that shows the life cycle of a technology, from emergence to maturity.The model can be applied at a laboratory level, at a firm strategy level, as well as at the national level. Some examples are presented to illustrate applications.