Risk and risk aversion when states of nature matter

When uncertainty is associated with some intrinsically relevant states of nature, there is no reason for an agent to base his or her preferences only on probability distribution of claims. We propose a new concept of risk for state-contingent claims that, unlike the standard concept of Rothschild–Stiglitz, does not identify state-contingent claims with their probability distribution. This concept is called mean-independent risk, and we provide a simple characterization in terms of marginal utilities of (non-expected) utility functions that exhibit aversion to mean-independent risk. We study implications of aversion to mean-independent risk on agents’ choices under uncertainty. This research has been supported by the NSF under Grant SES-0099206. I have benefited from numerous conversations with Rose-Anne Dana and illuminating discussions with Tadeusz Miłosz about the theory of subgradients.     

Numerical representation of intransitive preferences on a countable set

Let > be a preference relation on a countable set X. We prove that if > is acyclic (that is, has irreflexive transitive closure), then there exists a mapping u of X into $\text{R}$ such that x > y entails u(x)>u(y). We also give a simple proof of a representation theorem of Fishburn when > is an interval order.     

Contract renegotiation in a continuous state space

Summary. When players are unable to write complete state contingent contracts it is shown, within the context of a non-cooperative contracting-renegotiation game, that the only subgame perfect equilibrium allocations are those that correspond to the set of first-best allocations. Players are able to implement this set of allocations by signing an initial contract that is subsequently renegotiated in all states of the world. The contracting-renegotiation problem is complicated in an interesting way by assuming that the state space is continuous. The issue of the existence of an initial contract, that is subsequently renegotiated to the set of first-best allocations, must be resolved. Unlike Aghion, Dewatripont and Rey [1994], the results here do not require nor depend upon the comonotonicity of the objective functions. Received: January 27, 1995; revised version July 1, 1996     

Evolution in games with a continuous action space

Allowing for games with a continuous action space, we investigate how evolutionary stability, the existence of a uniform invasion barrier, local superiority and asymptotic stability relate to each other. This is done without restricting the populations of which we want to investigate the stability to monomorphic population states or to strategies with finite support. The authors have benefitted from careful and precise comments by Gerard van der Laan, Jan van Mill, the editor and an anonymous referee. Matthijs van Veelen gratefully acknowledges financial support by the Netherlands’ Organization for Scientific Research (NWO).     

幸福人假设及在管理领域的意义

“幸福人假设”从一个全新的视角看待人性的本质问题．认为传统的人性假设理论的实质其实都是幸福人假设。幸福人假设正在颠覆着传统的人性理论,也颠覆着我们对于人生意义的传统理解。本文让我们重新审视管理的终极意义,到底是财富最大化．还是幸福最大化？同时帮助决策者们更准确地把握人性,真正地做到人性化管理。     

Construction of a state space for interrelated securities with an application to temporary equilibrium theory

Summary We construct an endogenous state space in an exchange economy with possibly infinite horizon. Every period agents trade securities whose payoffs depend on future dividends and asset prices. We reject the perfect foresight assumption on the ground that agents have not only limited knowledge of other individuals' endowments and preferences, but also limited capacity to compute equilibria. We choose instead absence of arbitrage as the principle which allows agents to determine if a system of future prices is possible. We give an alogrithm to compute the set of nonarbitrage prices every period, with both finite and infinite horizon. We then apply this endogenous structure of uncertainty to an infinite horizon temporary equilibrium model.I would like to thank Professor Donald Brown for his constant help and guidance. I have also greatly benefited from helpful discussions with Professors Jacques Drèze, Bernard Dumas, Mordecai Kurz, Carsten Nielsen, Jan Werner, and Ho-Mou Wu.     

Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England

This paper re-examines the interaction between population growth and income per capita in pre-industrial England. Our results suggest that, as early as two centuries preceding the Industrial Revolution, England had already escaped the Malthusian Epoch and entered a post-Malthusian regime, where income per capita continued to spur population growth but was no longer stagnant. Our formulation of a post-Malthusian hypothesis implies cointegration between vital rates (birth- and death rates) and income and builds explicitly on a simple model of Malthusian stagnation. We show that this hypothesis can be interpreted as an extension of the latter model where the negative Malthusian feedback effect from population on income, as implied by diminishing returns to labor, is offset by a positive Boserupian and/or Smithian scale effect of population on technology.     

The nature of 'failure' in a technological initiative: the case of the europrocessor

This paper looks at the recat histoty of a short-lived inter-organizational European initiative in the field on microprocessors.The initiative is treated as an emerging socio-technical constituency and the concepts of alignment and “diamond of alignment” are used to explain the reasons behind its failure. It shows that the merging Europrocessor constituency advanced the alignment process in certazn directions but failed to do so in the critical dimension of “'competitive technologies”. The negotiating parties locked themselves into an antagonistic competitive situation and, subsequently, failed to extricate thenuelves in time to save the emerging constituency.A brief overview of microprocessor technology, the main factors detemzining market adoption and the position of the European industty is included.     

The nature of regional unemployment in Italy

Taking as a starting point the evidence of growing disparities for most of the 1984–2007 period, this article investigates the nature of regional unemployment in Italy. In particular, we assess whether the Italian regional unemployment rates contain a unit root and are, thus, subject to pure hysteresis, considering as alternative hypotheses both a linear and a non-linear stationary process. For that purpose, we employ three recently developed panel unit-root tests, taking account of structural breaks, cross-section dependence and non-linearities. Contrary to previous studies in the literature, our results reject the pure hysteresis hypothesis and support the characterisation of regional unemployment in Italy as a stationary but non-linear process, subject to multiple equilibria, in line with the ‘structuralist hypothesis’ advanced by Phelps (1994).     

The nature of economic change and management in a new knowledge based information economy

The development of management theory and practice and their informational assumptions are followed over three phases of economic development; (1) the pre-oil crisis experience 1969–1975, (2) the post oil crisis sobering up through most of the 1990s and (3) the emergence of globally distributed production organizations, blurring the notion of the firm to be managed. The change from a belief in a predictable environment and only marginally uninformed actors to an increasing recognition of the fundamental ignorance that enters all business decisions, the consequent business mistakes and that learning between the periods has been of limited value and often misleading is found to be reflected in business information systems.The increased rate of failure among large firms in recent decades appears to be related to the increasing complexity of business decisions, the decreased reliability of learning and the difficulties of controlling the value chain in globally distributed production.     

Limits to Growth,environmental science and the nature of modern prophecy

The voice of the prophet has both disquieted the complacent and comfortable and provided direction for those willing to listen. I argue it is the environmental science community, and especially those engaged in ecological economics, sustainability analysis and climate change research, that are acting as modern-day prophets in direct continuation of the biblical prophetic voice, and using as an exemplar the 1972 text, Limits to Growth. Providing analysis of their contemporary situation and then projecting from those situations into the future, prophets describe the outcome of the trends they see and offer warnings about collective dangers being faced. The life of a prophet, both then and now, is not simple, and those offering penetrating analysis of their society face a variety of hardships and threats.     

The changing nature of inflation persistence in Switzerland

This note analyzes the persistence of inflation in Switzerland. In particular, we assess the impact of the new monetary framework adopted by the SNB in 2000 on inflation persistence. A set of rolling-window estimates shows that inflation persistence has fallen significantly since the end of the 1990s.     

The strategic nature of advertising in segmented markets

We develop a simple model in which firm-specific advertising has cooperative and predatory effects. Our model is set in a static market where firms are naturally segmented into two distinct submarkets: several large firms located in the core, with small firms operating as a fringe. We test the net effect of opposing market size (cooperative) and market share (predatory) effects of both fringe and core firm advertising on the advertising decisions of large firms in several US consumer industries. Empirically, fringe firm advertising leads to an increase in advertising efforts by large firms, implying strategic complementarity. On the other hand, increased advertising by core firms in an industry decreases advertising expenditures of other core firms, indicating they are strategic substitutes. Our findings imply that equilibrium levels of advertising can be greater with asymmetric, rather than symmetric, strategic interactions.     

On the existence of lindahl equilibria in economies with a measure space of non-transitive consumers

We present a generalization of Roberts' theorem on the existence of Lindahl equilibria in economies with a measure space of agents. The principal contribution of this paper is methodological. We show that by formulating the problem in what we consider to be its natural infinite dimensional setting, the basic structure of Debreu's proof in the theory of value can be applied. Our proof makes use of functional analysis and relies, in particular, on Artstein's characterization of weak sequential convergence in L₁(μ).     

Multiple steady states,indeterminacy, and cycles in a basic model of endogenous growth

The goal of this paper is to demonstrate that a basic model of endogenous growth with learning by doing may produce a rich array of outcomes. Starting point of our analysis is the Romer (1986a) approach. In contrast to Romer, however, we assume that one unit of investment shows different effects concerning the building up of physical and human capital, so that these variables cannot be merged into one single variable. With this assumption, it can be shown that multiple steady states, indeterminacy of equilibria, and persistent cycles may result in our model.     

Elimination of arbitrage states in asymmetric information models

In a financial economy with asymmetric information and incomplete markets, we study how agents, having no model of how equilibrium prices are determined, may still refine their information by eliminating sequentially “arbitrage state(s)”, namely, the state(s) which would grant the agent an arbitrage, if realizable.