低碳约束下木材加工业全要素生产率研究

在考虑碳排放的基础上运用DEA-Malmquist指数测算了13个国家木材加工业的全要素生产率。对比分析1995~2009年发达国家与发展中国家木材加工业全要素生产率的发展变化情况。研究发现:总体而言,考虑CO2排放的木材加工业全要素生产率要高于传统全要素生产率,技术进步是全要素生产率增长的主要原因。低碳约束前后发达国家木材加工业全要素生产率平均水平要高于发展中国家。从1995年到2009年由于技术进步指数的变化引起了中国木材加工业全要素生产率较大的波动。根据实证分析结论,提出适当调整产业规模、提高产业技术创新水平等建议。     

Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Agricultural Trade

Using a sample of bilateral trade flows across ten developed countries between 1974 and 1995, this article explores the effect of exchange rate uncertainty on the growth of agricultural trade as compared to other sectors. Based on a gravity model that controls for other factors likely to determine bilateral trade, the results show that real exchange rate uncertainty has had a significant negative effect on agricultural trade over this period. Moreover, the negative impact of uncertainty on agricultural trade has been more significant compared to other sectors.     

The Internationalization of Firms From India: Investment,Mergers and Acquisitions

This paper analyses the rapid expansion in outflows of foreign direct investment from India and the spurt in foreign acquisitions by Indian firms, during the past decade, situated in the wider context of international investment from developing countries. Much of the investment was in manufacturing activities and most of the acquisitions were in industrialized countries. The economic stimulus and the strategic motive for the internationalization of firms from India were provided by a range of underlying factors driving the process, which differed across sectors and firms. The rapid growth in investment and acquisitions by Indian firms were partly attributable to factors implicit in the liberalization of the policy regime and the greater access to financial markets; but it must be recognized that Indian firms could not have become international without the capacity and the ability to compete in the world market. The attributes of Indian firms, which created such capacities and abilities, are embedded in the past and have emerged over a much longer period of time.     

The impacts of biofuels targets on land‐use change and food supply: A global CGE assessment

We analyze the long‐term impacts of large‐scale expansion of biofuels on land‐use change, food supply and prices, and the overall economy in various countries or regions using a multi‐country, multi‐sector global computable general equilibrium model augmented with an explicit land‐use module and detailed biofuel sectors. We find that an expansion of biofuel production to meet the existing or even higher targets in various countries would slightly reduce GDP at the global level but with mixed effects across countries or regions. Significant land re‐allocation would take place with notable decreases in forest and pasture lands in a few countries. The expansion of biofuels would cause a moderate decrease in world food supply and more significant decreases in developing countries like India and Sub‐Saharan Africa. Feedstock commodities (sugar, corn and oil seeds) would experience significant increases in their prices in 2020, but other price changes are small.     

Does Local Co-operation Matter? Evidence from Industrial Clusters in South Asia and Latin America

Comparing the Korean labour productivity growth in the last two decades with the Japanese and US labour productivity growth, data confirm a process of catching up in several important manufacturing sectors. The paper investigates its determinants using a non-neoclassical model. Investments in skills and capabilities are found to be crucial in explaining this trend. Important policy implications for developing countries are then discussed. In the long run, a targeted education policy with government intervention and a strong emphasis on technical education can give high pay-offs. This conclusion holds in particular when the aim of the country is to compete in the international markets, not along the low road to competitiveness, based on squeezing wages and profit margins, but along the high road (i.e. improving productivity, wages and profits).     

Productivity,resource endowment and trade performance of the wood product sector

This paper analyzes the determinants of international trade of wood products, considering three main groups: woodworking products, pulp and paper and wooden furniture. We extend the Heckscher-Ohlin-Vanek (HOV) framework in order to take into account the forest resource endowment as well as industrial performance factors. Empirical tests are based on data on European countries between 1995 and 2007. The HOV hypothesis is partially confirmed in that the forest resource endowment is a significant determinant for explaining differences in net trade of two products (pulp and paper and furniture) but not for woodworking products. In addition, empirical tests also show the limits of the HOV model for explaining international trade of wood products. Indeed, factors reflecting industrial performance of wood sectors, including total factor productivity and average labor cost, have a significant role in determining differences in net trade of wood products.     

中国与“一带一路”国家农产品贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

［目的］文章基于UNCOMTRADE数据库和SITC,Rev3商品分类方法,结合中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状与趋势,从总体、分区域、分种类3个方面判断了2000—2017年中国与沿线国家农产品贸易现状及特征。［方法］依次计算四种实证测度指数（RCA指数、TCI指数、TII指数、GL指数）,分析了中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性。［结果］（1）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易发展迅速但中国一直处于贸易逆差的地位,贸易逆差呈N型趋势;（2）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的集中度较高,主要集中在个别区域和几种农产品上,东南亚依然是最大的贸易市场同时产品市场结构发生改变;（3）中国与沿线国家农产品贸易的竞争性和互补性并存,但互补性明显更强,比较优势差异明显,双方以产业间贸易为主。［结论］中国与“一带一路”沿线国家应抓住新机遇,加大政策支持力度加强,优化贸易结构,充分发挥各国优势,实现互利共赢。     

Bridging the Gap between Partial and Total Factor Productivity Measures Using Directional Distance Functions

Technical dependencies as well as data constraints limit our ability to allocate inputs across sectors and hence our ability to measure sectoral productivity. We adapt a directional measure of efficiency to the measurement of sector-specific productivity that does not require allocating all inputs across sectors. Applied to the agricultural sector of a group of countries, the results show important differences in livestock and crops productivity growth. Commonly used partial factor productivity measures for livestock and crops tend to overestimate productivity growth in most developing countries while underestimating it in European countries.     

中挪水产品贸易的竞争性与互补性研究

本文在概述中挪水产品贸易现状的基础上,运用市场占有率指数、显示性比较优势指数、贸易竞争优势指数和贸易互补性指数、贸易结合度指数分别对中国和挪威水产品贸易的竞争力和互补性进行实证分析。结果表明:近年来中国的水产品竞争力有下降趋势,挪威的水产品竞争力则稳步提升;两国的水产品贸易有较强的互补性,但挪威对中国的互补性更强。     

Environmental Regulation and Development: A Cross-country Empirical Analysis

This paper develops comparative indices of environmental policy and performance for 31 countries, using a quantified analysis of reports prepared for the United Nations Conference on Environment and Development (UNCED). In cross-country regressions, we find a very strong, positive association between our indicators and the level of economic development, particularly when the latter is adjusted for purchasing power parity. Our results suggest a characteristic progression in the development process, from protection of natural resources to regulation of water pollution and, finally, air pollution control. They also highlight the importance of institutional development, with significant roles for degree of private property protection, effectiveness of the legal/judicial system and efficiency of public administration. Controlling for these variables, "Green" sector indices should be positively correlated with: (1) rural population density; and (2) agricultural and forest production share of national output. "Brown" sector indices should be positively correlated with: (1) particular focus on public health, indexed by life expectancy; (2) urban share of total population; (3) urban population density; and (4) manufacturing share of national output. Our analysis of overall regulatory performance reveals strong cross-country associations with income per capita, security of property rights, and general development of the legal and regulatory system. Surprisingly, however, we find only insignificant or perverse associations with degree of popular representation and freedom of information. For both the Green and Brown indices, performance is again strongly associated with income per capita, freedom of property and (in small samples) measures of regulatory efficiency. The two specifically rural sector variables (population density; proportion of GDP in agriculture and forestry) are only weakly associated with the Green index. The fit is much better for the Brown index: degree of urbanization, population density and manufacturing share in GDP all have the expected signs and relatively high significance. Life expectancy as a proxy for public health priority has no independent effect. In summary, our findings suggest that a detailed, quantified analysis of the UNCED reports can yield comparable and plausible indices of environmental policy performance across countries. Cross-country variations in our environmental index are explained well by variations in income per capita, degree of urbanization and industrialization, security of property rights and general administrative efficiency.     

中国活性炭出口竞争力评价与分析

应用蛛网模型,选取国际市场占有率、出口增长优势指数、显示性竞争优势指数、净贸易条件、产品附加值指数和质量升级指数六项具体评价指标,对比了美国、德国、希腊和比利时四个活性炭出口大国;利用2004~2013年的相关数据对中国活性炭出口竞争力进行综合评价,从最终的蛛网面积得到中国活性炭出口竞争力状况不佳的结论;最后针对中国活性炭出口竞争力低的状况提出质量标准逐步与发达国家接轨和加强行业合作等进一步提升的策略。     

The competitiveness of the Portuguese wine sector

The world wine market is currently characterized by two principal wine suppliers: the European and the New World. Countries such as France, Italy, Spain and Portugal have witnessed a tremendous growth in the New World wine-makers (Australia, Chile, South Africa, etc.). Portugal is one of the Old World countries that presents several natural and technical constraints, which might currently be resulting in modest performance in terms of its position in the global wine market, competitiveness and dynamics required to overcome difficulties. The main objective of this study is to analyse the Portuguese performance for competing in external markets and its evolution from 1996 to 2003. This study is based on indices such as the trade intensity index, revealed comparative advantage, auto-sufficiency and market share relation ratios.     

Global Taxation Governance after the 2002 UN Monterrey Conference

Using longitudinal data from 2354 smallholder households in 103 villages in eight African countries, three processes of agrarian transformation are analysed for the period 2002 to 2008: intensification of grain production, commercial diversification from staple crops and income diversification out of agriculture. Methodologically, three multi-level, binary logistic models are used. The trends observed provide grounds for some optimism: despite an overall picture of stagnation, intensification in grains (yield per hectare) seems to be increasing. Farmers have, however, raised productivity through the more intense use of labour resources rather than through technological change, while political commitments to agriculture have not improved the production environment. Rather, economic growth and commercialization emerge as strong drivers of intensification, both at country and household levels. Tendencies towards distress-driven income diversification out of agriculture appear to have abated somewhat in the face of more dynamism in the grain sector, with households moving between the farm and non-farm sectors in response to shifts in producer incentives and non-farm opportunities. Diversification processes within agriculture, meanwhile, point to both push- and pull-driven diversification occurring simultaneously. Grain markets, crop diversification and non-farm opportunities complement one another over time. There is little evidence of even incipient processes of structural transformation among the smallholders surveyed.     

Trade,Technology and the Demand for Skills in Tunisia, 1998–2002

Abstract

Although many developing countries have experienced an increase in the relative demand for skilled workers leading to a rise in wage inequality, the role played by trade in this trend remains a matter of debate. Using a firm-level database covering manufacturing and non-manufacturing sectors in Tunisia over the period 1998–2002, this paper investigates whether trade-induced technological change could explain the increase in the relative demand for skilled workers. The empirical analysis is based on the estimation of an employment-share equation. Controlling for potential endogeneity issues, the results confirm that trade-induced technology adoption was a channel through which openness to trade raised the relative demand for skilled workers in Tunisia. Unlike trade, however, foreign investment in Tunisia did not appear to increase the demand for skills.     

SOME IMPLICATIONS OF THE GROWTH OF THE MINERAL SECTOR*

The rapid growth of Australian mineral exports, through its effect on the balance of payments, is a significant force for structural change in other sectors. From the viewpoint of the rural sector which exports and the manufacturing sector which competes with imports, this force will be similar to that which would flow from very large tariff changes. Consequently, by observing the adjustments of the rural and manufacturing sectors to the rapid growth of mineral exports, it is possible to calculate indirect estimates of the effect of the Australian tariff on them. It is calculated that the mineral discoveries have had a much greater effect on these sectors than the recent across the board 25 per cent general reduction of tariffs.     

中国人造板产业国际竞争力的评价

利用FAOSTAT的1961--2004年期间的人造板统计数据，从国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显示性比较优势指数和产业内贸易指数等4个指标，分别对中国人造板产业国际竞争力进行定量评价，并与美国、加拿大和德国等10个世界人造板主要出口国进行国际比较，得出了2004年中国人造板产业具有较强的国际竞争力，并表现出不断增强的趋势的结论。     

基于产业集聚的广西林业产业竞争力实证研究

选取2003～2007年度的数据,分析了广西林业第一、二、三产业动态的E(G)产业集聚指数和产业竞争力水平。研究表明,2010年第一、二、三产业集聚指数分别为-0.0607、0.0338和0.0896,对应为无集聚、中度集聚和高度集聚,同年其产业竞争力水平升至全国第4名。综合评价了广西林业产业竞争力水平,运用弹性模型论证了产业集聚与广西林业产业竞争力水平的关系程度,探讨了通过产业集聚促进广西林业产业竞争力水平提升的问题。     

中国木质家具出口贸易波动成因分析——基于CMS模型的国际比较

以加拿大、德国、意大利、马来西亚和美国5个国家作为对比国,利用1992～2006年的Comtrade数据,通过CMS模型比较分析了影响中国木制家具出口贸易变动的因素。结果表明:⑴影响中国木制家具出口贸易波动的因素主要来自际市场需求因素、出口的产品整体竞争力效应和出口商品结构变化3个方面;⑵中国木质家具国际竞争力处于稳步上升阶段,是6个木制家具出口国中增长最稳定的一个。     

中国木质林产品国际竞争力的实证分析

选取15个主要木质林产品大国(地区)2003～2007年的数据,运用国际市场占有率、贸易竞争指数、显示性比较优势指数、出口增长优势指数、出口依存度、出口贡献率、净出口7个国际竞争力评价指标,采用主成分分析法对木质林产品的国际竞争力进行比较分析,得出结论:中国排在加拿大、印尼、马来西亚、俄罗斯、德国之后;中国木质林产品对外贸易规模不断增加,在世界木质林产品贸易中的地位越来越重要。同时,提出提升竞争力的对策。     

黑龙江省城市土地利用效益时空差异分析

城市土地利用效益是衡量城市土地利用水平的一项重要指标.文章从经济一社会一生态三个方面构建适合黑龙江省城市土地利用效益评价的指标体系,运用最优组合赋权法和协调度对黑龙江省12个地级市2002-2009年间城市土地利用综合效益水平进行分析比较;以评价结果为样本点,通过聚类分析得出全省城市土地利用综合效益水平的空间分布差异.结果表明:在时问上,12个地级市的土地利用效益水平呈现不同变化趋势;根据评价结果将12个城市分为土地利用高效益地区、中等效益地区和低效益地区三大类;在空间上,城市土地利用效益水平呈现"T"型的分布特征,"T"型区域内城市用地效益水平高于其它地区.