The Dynamics of Insurance Prices

We develop a continuous-time general-equilibrium model to rationalise the dynamics of insurance prices in a competitive insurance market with financial frictions. Insurance companies choose underwriting and financing policies to maximise shareholder value. The equilibrium price dynamics are explicit, which allows simple numerical simulations and generates testable implications. In particular, we find that the equilibrium price of insurance is (weakly) predictable and the insurance sector always realises positive expected profits. Moreover, rather than true cycles, insurance prices exhibit asymmetric reversals caused by the reflection of the aggregate capacity process at the dividend and recapitalisation boundaries.     

The Impact of Affective Reactions on Risky Decision Making in Accounting Contexts

In this study we examine whether managers' affective reactions influence their risk–taking tendencies in capital budgeting decisions. Prior research on risky decision making indicates that decision makers are often risk averse when choosing among alternatives that yield potential gains, and risk taking when the alternatives yield losses. The results reported here indicate that negative or positive affective reactions can change this commonly found risky behavior. Managers were generally risk avoiding (taking) for gains (losses) in the absence of affective reactions, as predicted by prospect theory. However, when affect was present, they tended to reject investment alternatives that elicited negative affect and accept alternatives that elicited positive affect, resulting in risk taking (avoiding) in gain (loss) contexts. The results also indicate that affective reactions can influence managers to choose alternatives with lower economic value, suggesting that managers consider both financial data and affective reactions when evaluating the utility of a decision alternative. These findings point to the importance of considering affective reactions when attempting to understand and predict risky decision making in accounting contexts.     

The Effect of Sequential Information Arrival on Asset Prices: An Experimental Study

A complete understanding of security markets requires a simultaneous explanation of price behavior, trading volume, portfolio composition (ie., asset allocation), and bid-ask spreads. In this paper, these variables are observed in a controlled setting—a computerized double auction market, similar to NASDAQ. Our laboratory allows experimental control of information arrival—whether simultaneously or sequentially received, and whether homogeneous or heterogeneous. We compare the price, volume, and share allocations of three market equilibrium models: telepathic rational expectations, which assumes that traders can read each others minds (strong-form market efficiency); ordinary rational expectations, which assumes traders can use (some) market price information, (a type of semi-strong form efficiency); and private information, where traders use no market information. We conclude 1) that stronger-form market models predict equilibrium prices better than weaker-form models, 2) that there were fewer misallocation forecasts in simultaneous information arrival (SIM) environments, 3) that trading volume was significantly higher in SIM environments, 4) and that bid-ask spreads widen significantly when traders are exposed to price uncertainty resulting from information heterogeneity.     

An Examination of the Biases in Estimating the Benefit of Debt Insurance

This paper examines the biases in previous studies of estimating the benefit of debt insurance. We identify three possible sources of estimation biases: selection bias, marketability bias, and premium bias. Our findings indicate that both the selection bias and the marketability bias cause an underestimation of the actual benefit of bond insurance, while the premium bias results in an overestimation. Future research could benefit from this study by explicitly accounting for these estimating biases in obtaining a more accurate evaluation of the role of debt insurance in the market.     

The Effect of Pre-commitment and Past-Experience on Insurance Choices: An Experimental Study

This paper reports results from an experimental study that investigates insurance behaviors in low-probability, high-loss risk situations. The study reveals that insurance behaviors may depend on the length of the commitment period of insurance policies, namely the period during which individuals commit themselves to maintain the same insurance decision. The results of this study also seem to support the predictions of the Dual Theory concerning the demand for co-insurance policies, that is to say the preference of individuals for extreme (null or full) levels of insurance coverage. This study also suggests that prior risk occurrences influence subsequent insurance choices. The paper provides a new possible explanation about the puzzling fact that people usually fail to obtain insurance against disaster-type risks such as natural disasters, even when premiums are close to actuarially fair levels.     

The Impact of Deregulation on Efficiency: An Analysis of Life Insurance Industry in Taiwan From 1981 to 2004

We examine the impact of deregulation and liberalization (D&L) on the efficiency of the Taiwanese life insurance industry from 1981 to 2004. We utilize the data envelopment analysis (DEA) to measure the efficiency performances and the Malmquist index approach to measure changes in efficiency and productivity over time. Both the DEA and Malmquist results show that the old domestic firms have been slightly impacted by the new competitors around 1992–1994 (the end of foreign and new local entry period and the beginning of post-D&L period). More important, our results show that the D&L does not have major adverse impact on the technical, cost, and revenue efficiency performances of existing domestic firms in the long run. The dominance of existing domestic firms has declined but persists throughout the sample period. In addition, our results show that it is relatively easy for new firms to become technically efficient in just few years after entering the market, but it is more difficult for them to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency. We, thus, suggest that a new market entrant should take advantage of the existing mechanisms by acquiring an old (existing) firm, rather than establish a new one, if a new entrant wants to become efficient in cost and revenue efficiency in a short time.     

The Effects of Regulated Premium Subsidies on Insurance Costs: An Empirical Analysis of Automobile Insurance

State regulation of rates is sometimes used as a means to make automobile insurance more affordable to consumers by restricting insurer profits and pricing practices. Incentive distortions arising from this type of rate regulation might lead to higher accident rates and higher insurance loss costs. Annual state‐level panel data for the time period 1980–1998 are used to investigate these effects, using empirical methods that recognize the endogenous determination of states’ regulatory choices. Results suggest that rate regulation that systematically suppresses (some or all) drivers’ insurance premiums is associated with significantly higher average loss costs and higher insurance claim frequency.     

中资保险企业营销决策分析

随着中国保险市场的逐步开放，中资保险企业将面临更大的竞争压力。为了取得企业的生存和长期可持续发展能力，中资保险企业应注重市场营销工作的开展，通过详细分析企业外部环境中存在的机会和威胁以及企业内部所具有的优势和劣势，制订出合理的产品、价格、分销渠道和促销等方面的组合策略，以能够更好地满足消费的需求。     

The Impact of Bid-Ask Prices on Market Anomalies

A substantial body of literature on security market anomalies has evolved since the articulation of the efficient markets hypothesis. These anomalies include the size, January, and weekend effects. The evidence of such anomalies has been based upon returns computed from closing prices. Although readily available, analysis of closing prices may not reflect returns obtainable by public traders utilizing market orders to execute trades. We have demonstrated elsewhere that returns computed from closing prices are biased upward compared with returns that would have resulted from using market orders. This study reexamines the evidence on two market anomalies using returns generated in a manner more consistent with the actual returns available to actual market participants.     

金融周期对房地产价格的影响——基于SV-TVP-VAR模型的实证研究

本文利用2004-2016年的季度数据构建金融周期综合指数,用以描述金融市场景气程度;使用SV-TVP-VAR模型,围绕金融周期对我国房地产价格的影响进行实证研究。结果表明,金融周期对房地产价格的影响具有明显的时变性特征:2008年以前金融市场繁荣对房价有稳定推升作用,2008年后该影响持续弱化;与之类似,实体经济对房价的影响同样自2008年起逐渐减小。这意味着,在经济增长方式转变和经济结构调整的过程中,我国房地产价格对经济金融冲击的敏感度已经大幅下降,金融扩张可能难以再通过房地产市场有效带动实体经济的繁荣,相反,其反而可能导致银行贷款不良率的攀升,在金融系统内积累系统性风险。我国针对房地产的宏观调控政策不仅对控制贷款不良率的提高体现出积极作用,而且自2008年国际金融危机以来,产出及房价的随机波动率均呈显著下降趋势,风险得到有效控制。未来应更加重视房地产市场调控在宏观审慎政策框架中的重要地位,遏制房地产金融化泡沫化势头,防范房地产市场引发金融危机。     

The Impact of Consulting Services on Audit Quality: An Experimental Approach

We use experimental markets to examine whether providing consulting services to a non‐audit client impacts audit quality. Our paper directly addresses concerns raised by the Public Company Accounting Oversight Board that the largest public accounting firms’ growth in their consulting practices threatens audit quality. We conduct an experiment proposed using a registration‐based editorial process. We compare a baseline where the auditor does not provide consulting services to conditions where auditors provide consulting to audit clients or where auditors only provide consulting services to non‐audit clients. Our unique design provides evidence on whether providing consulting to non‐audit clients strengthens the salience of a client‐cooperative social norm that reduces audit quality. We do not find differences in audit quality by condition in our planned analysis, however we find greater variation in audit quality in the conditions where auditors provide consulting services compared to the baseline. In unplanned analyses, our results suggest providing consulting services increases auditor cooperation with managers, increasing audit quality when managers prefer high audit quality and decreasing audit quality when managers prefer low audit quality.     

The Real Effects of Financial Markets: The Impact of Prices on Takeovers

Using mutual fund redemptions as an instrument for price changes, we identify a strong effect of market prices on takeover activity (the “trigger effect”). An interquartile decrease in valuation leads to a seven percentage point increase in acquisition likelihood, relative to a 6% unconditional takeover probability. Instrumentation addresses the fact that prices are endogenous and increase in anticipation of a takeover (the “anticipation effect”). Our results overturn prior literature that finds a weak relation between prices and takeovers without instrumentation. These findings imply that financial markets have real effects: They impose discipline on managers by triggering takeover threats.     

The Impact of Large Portfolio Insurers on Asset Prices

We develop a simple model in which the presence of portfolio insurers in a market of risk-averse traders leads to multiple equilibria for the pricing of financial assets and can cause an increase in volatility, including insurance-induced price drops. We demonstrate, however, that centralized portfolio insurance firms may actually reduce, not increase, volatility, even if the existence of these firms increases the total amount of funds under insurance.     

股票价格对信贷冲击的动态影响

本文使用基于马尔科夫区制转移方法的协整模型(MS-ECM和MS-VECM),以长期信贷需求方程为基础,研究了我国信贷市场的稳定状态与非稳定状态。实证结果显示:在信贷市场的非稳定状态中,我国股票价格变化对信贷冲击形成了较为明显的动态影响。这种动态影响的出现除了与西方学者所关注的信贷配给效应有关以外,还与信贷资金流入股市有着密切联系。另外,实体经济与信贷的动态互动可以显著增加信贷冲中击的持续性。基于以上结论,本文提出我国应该整合各种监管资源和政策工具,对股票价格变动引起持续性信贷冲击的现象进行动态预防和监控。     

The Impact of Social Influence Pressure on the Ethical Decision Making of Professional Accountants: Australian and New Zealand Evidence

This paper reports the results of an online survey examining whether inappropriate social influence pressure, in the form of obedience and conformity pressure generated by superiors and colleagues, influences the ethical decision making of members of four professional accounting institutes in two countries, namely Australia and New Zealand. We also evaluate the effects of organisational and professional commitment and what role, if any, such commitment plays in mitigating inappropriate social influence pressure. The results indicate that despite the members of the professional bodies displaying a high level of ethical judgement, obedience and conformity pressure do influence their ethical decision making. Furthermore, high levels of organisational and/or professional commitment were found to mitigate inappropriate social influence pressure, in that respondents who exhibit high levels of organisational and/or professional commitment are less likely to succumb to inappropriate social influence pressure. Our findings contribute to an understanding of the influences on ethical decision making by professional accountants, which could make workplace environments more conducive for ethical decision making by focusing on reducing inappropriate social influence pressure by taking steps to increase organisational and/or professional commitment.     

货币供应量对股票价格的影响研究——一个基于VAR模型的实证分析

货币政策是影响股票价格的重要因素之一。本文采用向量自回归模型,通过Johanson协整检验、Granger因果检验、脉冲响应函数和方差分解等计量经济学手段,研究了狭义货币供应量M1对我国股票价格的影响。研究结果表明,货币供应量对股票价格的影响不显著。     

韩国老年长期护理保险制度决策过程中的争议焦点分析

在老年护理服务政策方面,韩国选择了长期护理保险制度。韩国政府、各政党及市民团体纷纷参与了政策讨论和政策选择过程,形成了多种主体参与的政策网络和不同的政策议案。韩国政策参与主体围绕老年长期护理保险制度的适用对象、给付内容、筹资方式、输送体系展开了激烈的争论。从国会最终通过的法案来看,虽然政府起主导作用,大部分体现了政府案的内容,但由于不同政党及市民团体的牵制,在某些具体条款上多少反映了部分利益集团的意见。     

Cash Flow Volatility, Prices and Price Volatility: An Experimental Study

The value of an asset is equal to the present value of its expected future cash flows. It is affected by the magnitude, timing and riskiness, or volatility, of the cash flows. We hypothesize that if the expected values of two assets?? cash flows are equal, the value of the asset with more volatile cash flows will be lower. Furthermore, we examine the impact of the volatility of cash flows on the volatility of prices. We consider a simple experimental environment where subjects trade in an asset which provides dividends from a known probability distribution. The expected value of the dividends is identical in all experimental treatments. The treatments vary with respect to the volatility of dividends. We find that when dividends are more volatile, transaction prices are lower. We also find that the volatility of prices is lower in the treatment with highly volatile dividends. In addition, as expected, trading volume is lower when cash flows are less volatile.