我国复杂技术产业的市场追赶态势研究:国际贸易视角

从国际贸易的视角来探讨我国复杂技术产业的市场追赶态势。研究发现:我国复杂技术产业的市场追赶绩效明显,就产品和工艺都复杂的产品而言,我国出口额占全世界出口额的比例从2000年的2.41%快速上升到2008年的10.96%,产品和工艺都复杂的产品的出口额占我国出口总额的比例从2000年的46.43%上升到2008年的72.35%;从中、美、德、日、韩五国的比较结果来看,在产品和工艺都复杂的产品的出口总额中,2000—2008年间美国和日本所占份额都在下降,德国和韩国缓慢增长,我国快速增长,从第5位上升到第2位;从国际贸易平衡来看,在产品和工艺都复杂的产品领域,2000—2008年间我国成功地从净进口国转变为净出口国,但同期日本和德国在此类产品上一直保持较高的贸易顺差,我国和日本、德国在复杂技术产业领域的贸易顺差还有较大差距。     

福建省FDI与经济增长关系的实证研究:1981—2011

根据1981—2011年福建省的GDP、出口额及进口额的数据,运用协整检验和Granger因果关系检验等方法,实证福建省对外贸易与经济增长存在双向因果关系,相互促进。最后提出优化产品结构、积极鼓励出口、扩大区域经济技术合作等促进福建省对外贸易与经济增长的发展的几点措施。     

复杂产品技术能力增长机理研究

本文首先从知识观角度对企业技术能力的增长进行了细致分析,建立了企业技术能力增长的一般过程模型。在此基础上,对复杂产品技术能力增长的几个主要特殊问题作了详细的探讨,初步揭示了复杂产品技术能力增长的基本规律。     

美国对华技术出口管制政策走向分析北大核心CSSCISSCI

技术出口管制是指技术输出国出于政治、军事或经济的目的,通过政府管制的手段,限制某些特定的高技术产品和技术向特定的对象出口。美国为维持霸权地位,保持对中国的科技优势尤其是军事技术优势,长期以来一直对中国实行技术出口管制。美国对华技术管制严重影响了中美技术贸易。美国是世界上技术出口额最多的国家,它在世界市场的技术出口额是日本的三倍,但它对华的技术出口额却和日本对华的技术出口额相差不多。     

江苏省出口影响因素的实证分析

江苏省地处我国东部,交通便利,是我国经济最发达的省份之一,其贸易出口额一直呈现出高速增长态势,多年以来稳居全国第二,仅次于广东,远高于全国其他省市.连续多年总产值突破50000亿元,出口额突破1000亿美元.2014年全省出口额为3418.65亿美元,比2013年增加了3.9％,是全省经济增长的中坚力量,为经济的发展做出了积极的贡献.但是,究竟是哪些因素影响了出口,出口贸易中又存在什么问题呢？找出影响出口的关键性因素和可能存在的问题,对江苏省乃至全国外贸出口的持续健康发展有着积极的指导意义.     

技术集成能力对复杂产品创新绩效的影响机制

基于模块化理论和资源基础理论，探究技术集成能力与复杂产品创新绩效之间的关系，通过构建多重中介模型进一步探究复杂产品创新情境下技术集成能力的内部结构。对收集的353份调研样本进行实证分析并对模型进行验证，结果发现：技术集成能力的3个维度对复杂产品创新绩效的作用存在先后顺序；产品建构能力与复杂产品创新绩效具有显著相关关系；资源识取能力、技术融合能力在产品建构能力与复杂产品创新绩效之间起链式中介作用。结论有助于明晰复杂产品创新情境下技术集成能力内部结构及其对创新绩效的影响机制，为复杂产品企业更好地通过提升技术集成能力促进复杂产品创新发展提供借鉴。     

FDI对中国工业制成品出口内部结构的影响——基于虚拟变量、协整及Granger检验的实证研究

本文根据1980-2008年我国外商直接投资(FDI)、劳动密集型及资本技术密集型制成品出口额的数据,利用虚拟变量、协整检验和格兰杰检验(Granger)等计量经济方法,就FDI对我国工业制成品出口内部结构的影响进行了实证研究和度量,建立模型并得出结论,研究发现:在对FDI投向产业、行业的正确引导下,FDI对我国资本技术密集型制成品出口的拉动作用要大于劳动密集型制成品,从而使得资本技术密集型产品出口额的比重相对于劳动密集型产品得到了有效提升,对我国工业制成品出口内部结构的优化起到了关键性的作用.最后,文章提出了相应的政策建议.     

FDI对我国贸易出口额影响的实证分析

采用改革开放以来中国统计年鉴和中国对外经济统计年鉴统计的我国贸易出口额的相关数据,对外商直接投资额与产品的出口规模、汇率与出口结构之间的关系做出了定量回归分析。通过计量经济模型分析结果表明,出口额与外商直接投资之间具有显著的线性相关关系,外商直接投资额的迅速增长的确明显促进了我国出口贸易的增长,FDI改善了我国的出口商品结构。最后提出了提高外商直接投资贸易效应,促进结构优化的建议。     

动态比较优势与复杂产品系统的技术追赶——以我国高铁技术为例

随着工业化浪潮的持续推进,工业技术日益复杂化和系统化,复杂技术和复杂产品系统对经济增长发挥着越来越重要的作用。对于后发国家而言,要实现经济上对发达国家的赶超,首先要进行复杂技术和复杂产品系统的追赶。以我国高铁技术的追赶过程和路径为例,认为复杂产品系统的技术追赶必须以动态比较优势理论为指导,充分发挥政府的引导和政策支持作用,结合我国的实际科研、技术、资本等要素条件,有计划、有重点地选择一些复杂产品系统领域,进行技术追赶。     

出口复杂度、技术创新与一国经济增长

近年来,一国出口如何带动经济增长已成为学术界的研究热点,越来越多的学者用出口复杂度的概念来讨论出口对经济增长的影响。其中,出口新型技术产品对一国经济的增长有多少贡献成为学者们产生争议的重点。本文在实证法部分对之前学者的研究做出归纳总结,并在分析法部分对前人的研究模型做出改进。在此基础上,本文对一国如何利用新型产品的出口促进国内经济增长提出边际性建议。     

Product complexity and economic development

Development is a process of transforming a country's economic structure towards the production and export of more complex products. We use Hidalgo and Hausmann's (2009) method of reflections to compute measures of product and country complexity, and rank 5107 products and 124 countries. We find that: (i) the most complex products are in machinery, chemicals, and metals, while the least complex products are raw materials and commodities, wood, textiles, and agricultural products; (ii) the most complex economies in the world are Japan, Germany, and Sweden, and the least complex, Cambodia, Papua New Guinea, and Nigeria; (iii) the major exporters of the more complex products are the high-income countries, while the major exporters of the less complex products are the low-income countries; and (iv) export shares of the more complex products increase with income, while export shares of the less complex products decrease with income.     

服务贸易出口、知识产权保护与经济增长

本文首先基于知识产权保护这一视角从理论上研究了服务贸易出口驱动经济增长的作用机理,并且认为,知识产权保护强化了服务业出口部门对其他部门所产生的外部经济溢出效应以及由此分解而来的要素配置效应和技术溢出效应。随后基于90个国家1998—2007年面板数据的经验研究表明:(1)技术与知识密集型服务业出口部门比劳动密集型、资本密集型服务业出口部门更加能够通过要素配置效应和技术溢出效应来促进经济增长;(2)相比于劳动密集型、资本密集型服务业出口部门而言,知识产权保护更加易于强化技术与知识密集型服务业出口部门的要素配置效应,但由于发展中国家的知识产权保护制度不够完善,这些国家服务贸易出口的要素配置效应未能得到强化;(3)不管对于发达国家还是对于发展中国家而言,知识产权保护均强化了劳动密集型、资本密集型、技术与知识密集型服务业出口部门的技术溢出效应。     

Exports,policy choices,and economic growth in developing countries after the 1973 oil shock

In a study of 43 developing countries in the 1973–78 period of external shocks, the author has shown that intercountry differences in the rate of economic growth are affected by differences in investment rates and by the rate of growth of the labor force, by the initial trade policy stance and by the adjustment policies applied, as well as by the level of economic development and the product composition of exports. The results show that the policies adopted have importantly influenced the rate of economic growth in developing countries. In particular, an outward-oriented policy stance at the beginning of the period and reliance on export promotion in response to these shocks, appear to have favorably affected growth performance. The results further indicate the possibilities for low-income countries to accelerate their economic growth through the application of modern technology in an appropriate policy framework as well as the advantages of relying on manufactured exports.     

Institutions,Institutionalism: 1776–1974

Since developing countries were relatively free from the trade regulations relating to export promotion policies until 1994, the northeast Asian dynamic economies could pursue export promotion policies aggressively during the period of rapid economic growth. Under the current World Trade Organization (WTO) system, there are restrictions or even prohibitions on the developing countries' use of export promotion policies. One may doubt the fairness of the current WTO system, which regulates the use of export promotion policies regardless of different economic development levels. The current paper suggests various ways of allowing developing countries to develop their production capacities and exports of manufactured products. It also provides suggestions on modifying the current WTO regulations in favor of the export promotion policies of developing countries. Such special treatment of developing countries could be justified from the viewpoint of distributional fairness applied to international trade relations.     

东北亚国家出口多样化与经济增长的关系——基于动态面板数据的系统GMM估计

利用1996—2010年东北亚国家的贸易数据,验证了出口多样化与人均GDP之间的关系,并采用系统广义矩方法建立动态面板数据模型,估计了出口多样化对经济增长的贡献。结果表明:就东北亚单个国家而言,出口多样化与人均GDP之间呈U型变动关系,但就东北亚整体而言,这种U型关系并不明显;从东北亚国家的经验来看,出口多样化对经济增长具有积极作用;目前我国出口正处于从多样化向集中化转变的上升阶段,尚未达到U型曲线的拐点。     

出口产品技术水平的影响因素——基于跨国数据的实证研究

利用1997—2007年全球范围内177个国家或地区的分产品贸易流量数据,运用贝叶斯模型平均方法,对不同样本国家或地区的出口产品技术水平的影响因素进行了回归分析。实证结果表明:一国的要素禀赋和贸易开放程度对其出口产品技术水平的提高具有正向作用;实际有效汇率贬值会带来本国出口产品技术水平的下降;金融深化、金融结构优化有助于提高一国出口产品的技术水平。最后,结合经验发现提出相关政策建议和总结启示。     

Export surges

How can developing countries stimulate and sustain strong export growth? To answer this question, we examine 92 episodes of export surges, defined as significant increases in manufacturing export growth that are sustained for at least 7 years. We find that export surges in developing countries tend to be preceded by a large real depreciation, which leaves the exchange rate significantly undervalued. In contrast, in developed countries, the role of the exchange rate is less pronounced. We examine why the exchange rate is important in developing countries and find that the depreciation is associated with a significant reallocation of resources in the export sector. In particular, depreciation stimulates entry into new export products and new markets. These new exports are important, accounting for over 40% of export growth on average during the surge in developing countries. We argue that a large real depreciation induces firms to expand the product and market space for exports.     

Research on China’s export structure to the US: Analysis based on the US economic growth and exchange rate

Due to the rapid appreciation of RMB, the consistent declining of the US economy and other uncertain factors, China’s export volume to the United States has declined. The paper first chooses six industries to divide them into three groups based on per capita possession of capital, then employs the monthly data from 2001 to 2008 to carry out EG two-step cointegration test, and finally analyzes the impacts of the US economic growth and the exchange rate variability on different export industries. Empirical results show that the labor-intensive industries are most susceptible to fluctuations brought by economic growth and real exchange rate, while those industries with higher per capita possession of capital are less susceptible to external factors. In the short run, the export of labor-intensive products gives an advantage to China’s foreign trade development, but in the long-run, these industries will be affected greatly by various uncertain factors and the advantages of China’s labor-intensive export industries will disappear with the shift of the international division. Therefore, the only way to guarantee the dominant position of China’s foreign trade is to develop capital and technology intensive export industries and upgrade export structure.