我国居民旅游消费对经济增长的影响分析

本文利用我国1994—2006年的时间序列数据,运用计量经济学中的协整理论对城镇、农村居民旅游消费和经济增长之间的关系进行了研究。得出以下主要结论:城镇居民旅游消费和GDP、第三产业增加值之间具有协整关系;城镇居民旅游消费每增加1%,GDP增加0.79%,第三产业增加值增加0.85%;城镇居民旅游消费对第三产业的推动作用大于其对经济增长的推动作用;而农村居民旅游消费和GDP、第三产业增加值之间不具有协整关系,农村居民旅游消费对经济增长和第三产业的发展没有明显的推动作用。以上现象与我国农村居民旅游消费的特征是分不开的。最后,提出了提高我国居民旅游消费水平的对策。     

我国居民信息消费函数的实证研究

本文构建了信息消费函数,并运用分离出个体差异和时间差异的panel data模型,研究了我国居民信息消费问题.实证结果显示,近年来我国居民信息消费边际倾向高于其他单项消费,且信息消费增速快;信息消费中的"时滞效应"和"棘轮效应"明显;居民信息消费的城乡差异、地区差异和时间差异均比较明显,其中,城乡、地区不平衡的根源是城乡、地区收入上的差距,时间上的差异则主要是因为居民对未来的预期不稳定.     

工作忙碌制约了家庭消费升级吗?——来自文体休闲消费的替代效应证据

在微观家庭的消费升级中,时间和金钱是重要的决定因素,两者均与工作忙碌程度相关.工作忙碌既可减少闲暇时间,使得工作对消费产生替代效应,制约消费升级;又可能增加收入,产生消费的经济基础优势,表现为互补效应,促进消费升级.但受制于加总谬误等相关因素,以往研究尚未对上述净效应给出经验证据.本文以文体休闲为消费升级的代表,分析现阶段中国家庭工作忙碌程度对消费升级的净效应.研究发现:替代效应占据主导作用,经济基础优势弱于时间分配冲突,工作忙碌程度制约了消费升级.原因一是宏观上,我国经济发展水平变高,使得工作忙碌对闲暇时间的替代效应增强;二是微观上,家庭年龄结构老龄化增加,消费受阻.由此建议,制定消费升级政策时,应考虑工作忙碌程度,尤其要增加中高收入人群的闲暇时间并关注家庭老龄化的消费约束.     

浅析增加农民收入以扩大农村消费

二十一世纪以来,我国更加注重通过增加农民收入来提高农村消费,农民作为整个国民中的一个巨大的群体,在增加消费中起着巨大的作用。所以,必须通过增加农村消费来提高我国的社会消费能力,进一步促进农村商品市场的发展,进而促进我国经济的发展。改革开放以来,我国采取了各项惠农措施,农民的收入在整体上已经有了提升,进一步促进了农村消费能力的提高,但是,在经济社会不断发展的今天,农村消费已经明显跟不上时代的发展步伐,必须采取一系列措施解决这个问题,进一步促进农村消费能力的提高。     

农村居民消费政策影响机制及政策效力分析

本文旨在分析农村居民消费政策对农村家庭消费的影响机制、影响程度及政策效力随时间的变化趋势。以"家电下乡"政策为例,本文通过构造四组准实验,运用匹配双差法和中国健康与营养调查(CHNS)2006年和2009年的数据,评估该类政策对农村居民消费的影响。研究发现,2008年农村居民消费政策对农村家庭消费具有显著的促进作用;政策实施的时间越长,对消费增长的促进作用越明显,而且这一作用随家庭净收入的增加而减弱。此外,基于宏观数据的分析表明,该类政策并未进一步引发相关行业的产能过剩。     

突破消费时空限制：通勤时间、移动支付与家庭消费

通勤问题影响着城市合理职住空间的形成和人民福祉,提升通勤质量是发展以人民为中心的城市建设的重点。城镇化的迅速发展使得职住分离现象愈加明显。在此背景下,本文基于中国家庭金融调查数据(CHFS),研究通勤时间对家庭消费的影响及作用机制,分析如何改善通勤质量。研究结果表明,通勤时间对家庭消费有显著的正向影响。进一步研究发现,移动支付能有效缓解消费时间不足的问题,具有中介效应,个体使用移动支付在通勤时进行消费,有利于提升通勤质量。此外,通勤时间的影响在消费类型、消费结构和消费群体方面呈现异质性。对发展享受型消费、非国有企事业单位和家庭压力较大的群体而言,通勤时间促进消费的积极作用更大。     

收入分配与消费不足

近年来我国消费一直低迷，消费需求相对不足明显存在。收入分配差距是消费需求不足的主要原因。扩大消费需求，提高消费水平，必须千方百计增加普通城乡居民尤其是低收入者的实际收入，缩小收入差距。     

我国财政支出与消费增长关系的浅析

改革开放以来,中国经济实现了前所未有的持续高速增长,但是在经济高速发展的同时也出现了收入不均等的急剧上升.通过对我国1978年～2011年34年的时间序列进行计量分析发现,我国财政支出的增加对消费的增长没有因果关系,也就是说不存在政府支出对消费的挤出效应,而消费支出是政府财政支出的格兰杰原因,消费支出的增加对财政支出有着正向的刺激作用.前期的政府财政支出会造成下期政府财政支出的增加.     

电力消费促进经济增长的非线性转换机制研究

非线性建模技术的应用有利于换位思考电力消费的经济增长机制。文章利用跨省面板数据,以人均消费水平作为门限变量,构建面板门限回归模型实证检验了电力消费对经济增长的非线性影响。结果表明,中国电力消费对经济增长存在"门限效应",当人均消费支出超过4 182.469元时,电力消费增长对经济增长正向拉动作用要明显大于人均消费水平低于该门限值时电力消费对经济增长的促进作用。进一步分析发现,我国省份电力消费促进经济增长的转换机制具有时空差异性。不同年份中电力消费的经济促进机制发生转换的省份个数是动态增加的,不同省份电力消费的经济增长促进机制的转换时间是不同的,经济发达的东部省份较早跨越了机制转换的约束门限。     

江苏省城乡居民食品消费差异及原因分析

江苏省城乡居民食品消费结构变化明显：城乡居民对粮食、蔬菜、食用油等产品的消费减少,对牛羊肉、家禽奶等的消费增加,同时居民在外饮食消费也明显增加,城乡食品消费结构存在差异。影响这些差异的原因主要包括收入、生活方式、价格等。为顺应食品消费结构的变化,江苏省应缩小城乡收入差距,稳定物价,在确保粮食产量的情况下,提高水果蔬菜生产产量并积极发展畜牧业、渔业等人均需求量不断增加的产业。     

消费函数的收入阶层假说

本文基于经典消费函数的两个基本变量，融合收入分配理论，构建消费函数的收入阶层假说。这一假说为政府制定扩大居民消费的政策措施提供了理论依据。     

旅游景区“黄金周”应对行为的经济学分析

本文运用经济学供求分析工具，探讨“黄金周”对旅游景区的影响以及后者的应对行为。黄金周与旅游旺季在时间上重叠，人为加剧了旅游供求季节矛盾，使得许多热点景区在黄金周期间普遍超载。对此，尽管许多景区采取了黄金周提价、扩大接待能力、弹性供给等应对措施，但都不能从根本上解决黄金周超载及其所带来的资源破坏问题。在带薪假期普遍推行之前，可以考虑调整现行黄金周的时间安排，将长假时间转移到传统的旅游淡季，从而缩小而非扩大旅游季节矛盾。     

城镇化、城乡消费比例和结构对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响*

本文利用投入-产出分析法计算了我国居民消费间接CO2排放量,并应用结构分解分析（SDA）方法分析了城镇化、城乡消费比例、消费结构等因素对居民消费间接CO2排放的影响。研究结果发现：（1）城镇化的扩张和消费结构的升级是增加我国居民消费间接CO2排放的重要因素,尤其是食品、居住和交通通讯是导致居民消费间接CO2排放的主要部门;（2）城乡消费比例和排放强度对居民消费间接CO2排放具有明显的抑制作用;（3）人均消费的提高对居民消费间接CO2排放增长贡献最大。最后,本文基于实证结果提出了减少我国居民消费间接CO2排放的政策建议。     

ON THE EFFECTS OF DIFFERENT PATTERNS OF PUBLIC CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES

The multiplier effects resulting from an isolated increase in the level of public consumption within different public branches are investigated and the policy implications are discussed. The article begins with a theorethical analysis which shows why and in which ways these multipliers can be expected to differ between public branches. Thereafter, an empirical investigation is given, based on simulations with an econometric model of the Swedish economy. In this model the public activities are divided into 13 different public branches. The effects of an increase in public consumption on employment, imports and private consumption are found to differ considerably depending on which branch of the public sector is expanded. Some implications for short run stabilization policy are discussed. The article ends with a special analysis of the implications for a medium term planning problem: the trade off between private and public consumption growth. This analysis throws new light on the old topic "private or public consumption". In an economy with highly differentiated production in the public sector the trade-off is shown not to be unique. The sacrifice of private consumption growth corresponding to a given growth of public consumption expenditures will vary considerably according to the distribution of the public consumption growth within the different branches of the public sector.     

CASH INCENTIVES AND UNHEALTHY FOOD CONSUMPTION

This paper studies the effectiveness of taxes, subsidies and cash incentives in reducing unhealthy food consumption. Using an inter‐temporal rational choice model with habit, we calibrate and simulate the effect of those policies to US and UK data. Our findings suggest that cash incentives may be the most effective policy in reducing unhealthy food consumption. However, when comparing the reduction in costs for the social security system with the implementation costs, cash incentives can lead to significant monetary losses. Taxes are relatively ineffective in reducing unhealthy food consumption. Finally, subsidies have the best balance between effectiveness and monetary benefits to society.     

MEASURES OF TOTAL HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION

By expenditure on education, health, housing and other public services, governments provide many goods and services which are alternatives to, or additional to, household expenditure on consumption. In most Western national accounts, the two forms of consumption are rigidly separated. Yet the combination of the two–the concept of total household consumption–has obvious importance for the measurement and comparison of living standards and for the formulation and analysis of policy. This concept is recommended as an additional aggregate in the revised SNA. It is displayed in the UN International Comparison Project (ICP). It is used as a major aggregate ("total consumption of the population"), although hitherto generally excluding nonmaterial services, in the Material Product System. Yet it is rarely shown explicitly in Western national accounts. One reason is the slow progress in the analysis by purpose of government expenditure.
This paper shows how far figures of total household consumption, and of its division between collective and private consumption, can in fact be derived, for the advanced countries, from the data provided to the UN Yearbook of National Accounts , supplemented b y the ICP. The results show first the wide national variations in the relation between the two forms of consumption but, secondly, the gaps in information on this crucially important topic. The relation between direct government expenditure for collective consumption and transfer payments to households ("social income") is also examined. High and low levels of these two forms of State support to consumption reinforce each other almost as often as they offset each other. But, again, the data provided by national accounting statistics are very incomplete.
This paper was prepared for the 16th General Conference of the IARIW, August 1979.     

贫困缺粮地区的粮食消费和食品安全

本文以实证分析方法对我国农村地区,特别是贫困缺粮地区的农民食品消费及其影响因素进行研究,认为影响我国贫困农村地区农民粮食和食品安全保障的最主要因素是农民的收入水平;传统的扩大当地粮食种植比重、提高自给自足水平的政策选择不仅导致资源配置低效,而且不利于食品安全水平的提高。研究提出,更有效地保障这部分弱势人群食品安全的政策选择是增加农民收入、完善和健全农产品,特别是粮食市场的流通机制。     

ADVERTISING RESTRICTIONS, COMPETITION, AND ALCOHOL CONSUMPTION

Distilled spirits producers recently voted to eliminate their voluntary ban on broadcast advertising. The ban received public support because of the high social cost associated with alcohol consumption and the belief that advertising promotes alcohol consumption and abuse. In spite of this belief, the empirical evidence indicates that advertising has no significant effect on the market demand for distilled spirits. This evidence has led many policy economists to conclude that eliminating the ban will have no effect on alcohol consumption. The purpose of this research is to show that this conclusion is incorrect because it ignores the fact that advertising restrictions may affect industry competition as well as market demand.     

FISCAL POLICY AND AGGREGATE CONSUMPTION: NEW EVIDENCE FROM THE UNITED STATES

In this paper we estimate the marginal rate of substitution between aggregate per-capita consumption and per-capita government expenditure on goods and services using US quarterly data over the period 1953 to 1993. This estimate is an important input to any attempt to assess the overall effectiveness of fiscal policy since it directly affects the size of the fiscal policy multiplier. Other recent consumption studies which incorporate the effects of government expenditure have failed to establish a stable estimate of the marginal rate of substitution. We argue that this failure results from imposing the unrealistic assumption that this parameter is constant. In contrast, we allow the marginal rate of substitution to depend on both the level and composition of government spending.     

Maximizing human development

The Human Development Index (HDI) is widely used as a measure of well‐being. We examine the allocations implied by the maximization of this index using a standard growth model. Maximization leads to consumption (excluding education and health expenditures) being pushed to minimal levels. It also leads to the overaccumulation of education and/or health capital and possibly physical capital, relative to the standard golden rule. We propose an alternative specification for the HDI, where consumption replaces income as a proxy for decent standard of living. Maximization of this alternative implies a ‘human development golden rule’ which balances consumption, education and health expenditure. We advocate the method of optimization subject to constraints for revealing the policy implications of taking an achievement measure and its underlying philosophy seriously.