THE ECONOMIC SURPLUS OF AGRICULTURE IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

The economic surplus of an industry is defined as the difference between its real product, and the real income accruing to it. The surplus from U.K. agriculture measured at 1964/65–66/67 prices is estimated to have risen by about 20 million per year in recent years. The absorption of this surplus by other sectors is identified and an approximate indication is given of the equivalent surpluses and deficits of other industry groups. The economic surplus from agriculture is transferred principally through changes in relative prices, the necessity of which tends to create an unavoidable minimum rate of inflation. There is an international equivalent of these transfers of real income through price changes, but without the institutional constraints on the market which in the domestic economy preserve some measure of equity in the distribution of income.     

THE INCOME AND CONSUMPTION EXPERIENCES OF A SAMPLE OF FARM FAMILIES*

The way in which the consumption of farm families is adjusted to fluctuations in income has important implications at the national, regional and farm levels. In this paper, hypotheses about the consumption of farm families are examined using data from 16 families in a wheat-sheep region of New South Wales for the eight-year period 1968/69 to 1975/76. The results of the study indicate that lagged effects are important in explaining consumption by farm households. It was not possible to partition these lag effects between partial adjustment and normal income influences. Estimates of the short-run (one-year) marginal propensity to consume (mpc) were quite low, ranging from 0.13 to 0.16. The best estimates of the long-run mpc ranged from 0.19 to 0.25.     

化肥施用量对苹果种植经济效益影响的实证研究

［目的］我国苹果主产区苹果产量的增加严重依赖化肥施用,苹果生产过程中化肥过量使用问题较为严重,造成农业面源污染。目前,国家政策倡导,要在农户可接受的情况下,在苹果主产区推进化肥减施工程,实现苹果生产化肥减施增效的目标。为此,厘清化肥使用量对苹果价格、果农种植收入的影响机制显得尤为重要。［方法］文章利用1991—2017年我国苹果种植成本收益资料,分析了化肥施用量与苹果价格、种植苹果净利润之间的关系,化肥价格变化与农户化肥选择行为的关系,并运用最小二乘回归和Granger因果检验分析方法,分析各变量之间的影响机理。［结果］苹果产量增长的同时,生产成本也呈现出稳定增长的态势。从成本构成变动趋势来看,2013年后总成本略有下降,而生产人工成本持续增加,并于2011年起成为成本支出中占比最大的一项。化肥施肥量先增后减,2014年后逐年递减,农户选用复合元素肥代替单一元素肥成为一种趋势。化肥施用量对苹果价格具有正向作用,原因是化肥施用量会影响苹果果实口感和品质。化肥施用量对苹果生产净利润的影响存在一个阈值,即58984 kg/hm2,当施肥量小于此值时,化肥施肥量与苹果生产净利润呈负向关系,大于此值时,则呈正向关系。［结论］化肥减施的最小值应不低于71212 kg/hm2,在保障苹果产量的前提下,减轻环境负担。培养农户环保种植意识,提升化肥使用效率,延伸苹果产业价值链,加大苹果种植区减肥示范农业补贴力度,建立完善农业保险机制,加大全方位多角度保障果农经济收益,推进苹果化肥减施增效。     

FORECASTING SAWNTIMBER CONSUMPTION: THE APPLICATION OF AN END-USE MODEL*

A multi-equation end-use model is used to analyse the consumption of sawn-timber in Australia. The forecasting ability of the model is evaluated. Simulations of the model are reported and implications for policy are discussed.     

THE STRUCTURAL DETERMINANTS OF INDIVIDUAL PERCEPTIONS TO SOCIAL CHANGE IN WESTERN CANADIAN COMMUNITIES*

This paper is concerned with some of the problems thai may arise from the proposed large-scale abandonment of thousands of miles of railroad branch-lines in Western Canada. One hundred and sixty communities, located in the Provinces of Manitoba and Saskatchewan, all of which are located on railroad lines that may be abandoned, were selected for study. The first part of the paper describes the procedures used to analyze the structure of these communities. A factor analysis was performed on census variables, and the results were used to build a typology of community differentiation. Forty-four percent of the communities were found to have highly differentiated structures, while the remaining 56 percent had a low degree of structural differentiation. This led to the formulation of the following hypothesis: The disruptive effects of railroad abandonment, as perceived by community residents and as presented in their responses to the threat of abandonment, will vary inversely with the amount of community structural differentiation. This hypothesis and other hypotheses related to perceptions were tested with a mailed questionnaire on a sample of 95 respondents from a representative sample of the communities. Two situational variables, representing the degree of involvement in community social networks, were used as controls: length of residence in the community and amount of participation in community affairs. The findings confirmed the hypothesis that community structure remains as an important determinant of individual's perceptions, although the situational variables, particularly residence, exert an influence also. The relationship between the structural level and individual level variables is discussed, and a case is made for the continued use of such macro-level analyses as that of community structure. Cet article traile de quelques unes des conséquences possibles du projet de fer-meture de milliers de milles de lignes de chemin de fer secondaires dans ?Ouest du Canada. ?élude a été faite dans cent soixante communautés du Manitoba el de la Saskatchewan, communautés qui sonl loules situées sur les parcours ferroviaires que ?onprojelle defermer. Dans la premiere parlie de ?article, on explique les méthodes utilisées pour analyser les structures de communautés. A partir ?une analyse factorielle de variables du recensement, ?on arrive à une typologie permetiant une classification des communautés. Quarante-quaire pour cent des communautés se montraient fortement struciurées: dans les aulres–cinquanle-six pour cent–//n'y avail qu'un degré moindre de differentiation structurale. Ceci nous mène à?hypothèse suivanle: Les effets nocifs de la fermelure des chemins de fer reflétés dans la perception des habitants el dans leur reaction a sa menace, varient en relation inverse au degré de differentiation communautaire. Ceile hypothèse, ainsi que ?aulres, furent incorporées dans un questionnaire envoyé par courrier à un échantillon de quatre-vingt quinze répondants résidant dans des communautés sélectionnees par hazard. Deux variables contextuelles opérationalisant le niveau ?intégration de ?individu au.x-réséaux sociaux communautaires nous servenl de contrôle: la durée de résidence et le niveau de participation active dans les affaires communautaires. L'analyse des données confirme ?hypothèse que la structure communaulaire est une variable fort importanle pour la perception de ?individu, bien qu'il soil evident que les variables contextuelles, surtout la durée de residence, exercent, elles aussi, une influence incontestable. Le lien iheorique enlre les variables du niveau structural et celles du niveau individuel est discuté ainsi que le besoin de cominuer ?analyse de structure communaulaire en tant qu'analyse macro-sociologique.     

THE DEVELOPING FRAMEWORK FOR THE ECONOMIC EVALUATION OF FORESTRY IN THE UNITED KINGDOM*

This paper evaluates the economic worth of forestry projects in the United Kingdom by using two different public sector investment appraisal criteria; the traditional discounted cash flows and the recently-established sum of discounted consumption flows. In the latter, in view of the intergenerational distribution aspect of government projects, the conventional rules are modified, enabling the decision-maker to treat all generations, present and future, in an equitable manner. Forestry is an excellent example to highlight the issue that many public sector investment projects re-distribute income between generations. Its long gestation periods make it obvious that there is more than one generation involved in the venture. In this analysis a one hectare plantation of Sitka spruce, class 20, is considered for a single 50-year rotation. Three different interest rates, 10 per cent test rate of discount, 5 per cent required rate of return, and 3 per cent forestry target rate are used under 4 different assumptions regarding the future price of timber.     

ECONOMIC GROWTH AND THE OPTIMUM SCALE OF ENTERPRISE IN FARMING*

This article examines the effect over time of national economic growth upon the optimum scale of enterprise in farming. It argues that there are forces within an economy leading to the growth of optimum scale in farming, irrespective of the nature of technical innovation and in spite of the limited scope for increased sales of agricultural produce as national income rises. The early part of the paper develops a method of characterising optimum scale which is in terms of marginal return to money capital employed in the farm business.     

ECONOMIC ASPECTS OF SELECTION IN THE DAIRY HERD IN ISRAEL*

The paper reports a study of the operation of the breeding system in the milk herd in Israel. Basic notions in quantitative genetics are explained and incorporated in a simulation model which is used to illustrate and analyse the selection process. Particularly emphasised are the traits common to selection and other research and development effort; among them, search, limited information, and biological and technical constraints. Differential technical changes affected the structure of the milk producing industry and its measured productivity; these effects are discussed in the last part of the paper.     

胆固醇认知对城镇居民鸡蛋食用量的影响

目的 鸡蛋胆固醇与身体健康问题是人们关注的焦点,直接关系到人们的鸡蛋食用量。方法 文章基于消费者视角,根据实地调研数据,采用分位数回归方法实证分析了胆固醇认知对城镇居民鸡蛋食用量的影响。结果 （1）城镇居民基本上实现了每人每日食用一枚鸡蛋,与鸡蛋实际食用量相比,调研到的样本目前还未达到认为合理的食用量。超过2/3的样本认为食用鸡蛋会导致胆固醇摄入量增加,从而会影响人体健康。（2）经模型验证,胆固醇认知对城镇居民鸡蛋食用量具有显著的负向影响,说明城镇居民为了身体健康以及减少胆固醇摄入量,会有意减少鸡蛋食用量,而且城镇居民鸡蛋胆固醇的负面认知更容易促使其鸡蛋食用量控制在自认为合理的范围以内。结论 基于此,该文结合胆固醇认知等对城镇居民鸡蛋食用量具有显著影响的变量,提出了引导消费者科学购买及食用鸡蛋的对策建议。     

CO-INTEGRATION ANALYSIS AND THE DETERMINANTS OF LAND PRICES

This paper outlines the concept of co-integration and its use in econometric modelling. The techniques of co-integration analysis are described, with particular emphasis given to test procedures. Co-integration between two or more variables is taken to imply the existence of a long-run equilibrium relationship between them. Co-integration analysis is applied in a re-examination of recent empirical models of the determination of land prices in England and Wales. The results suggest that recent land price models do not describe longrun relationships between land prices and the explanatory variables selected. Criticisms of the different measurements of returns to land used in studies to date are sustained by the analysis, and a clear role for interest rates in the determination of land prices is indicated.     

DETERMINANTS OF CHANGE IN THE NORTH AMERICAN FEEDER-CATTLE ECONOMY

Changing flow patterns characterize the North American cattle industry, which are having a significant impact on all aspects of Canadian agriculture. A brief review of important changes taking place in the feeder cattle industry is given together with an analysis of forces influencing the changing interregional economic relationships.
The results suggest an increasing rate of adjustment may be needed in the future as the economic variables and technological advances responsible for much of the change in the past continue to influence the Canadian cattle industry. The impact of change will not occur evenly across all areas and segments of the industry with the interregional trends that have developed particularly the expansion in flows from Western Canada to the Western United States showing no sign of slowing down. Eastern Canada may be under increasing pressure to expand either its imports of feeder cattle and dressed beef or develop its own feeder supply.     

AN ECONOMIC TOOL FOR EVALUATING DISEASE MANAGEMENT IN THE JARRAH FORESTS OF WESTERN AUSTRALIA*

A pathogenic, soil-borne fungus has been gradually spreading through the jarrah forest of Western Australia for most of this century. On some sites this fungus can cause almost total forest destruction. Infection is incurable and the effects are irreversible. This paper develops a means for evaluating disease control measures and identifying the optimal level of protection. Standard protection measures are warranted for high and moderate impact sites, over a wide range of risks. Increased expenditure on forest protection is warranted for high and moderate impact sites at especially high risk.     

丝绸之路经济带农业经济协作功能分区规划研究

文章通过对丝绸之路经济带的内涵与空间范围进行了界定,将丝绸之路经济带的定义、特征进行了系统描述,并阐述了丝绸之路经济带的建设意义;对经济带的空间范围从核心区、扩展区及辐射区等3方面进行了定位。文章仅对丝绸之路核心地区进行分区,即中国、俄罗斯、哈萨克斯坦、吉尔吉斯斯坦、塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦及土库曼斯坦等7个国家,针对7个国家的农业功能依据地域性、比较优势、可操作性等原则将核心区划分为3个功能区,分别是东北粮食区,包括中国、俄罗斯及哈萨克斯坦等3个国家;西南棉花区,包括塔吉克斯坦、乌兹别克斯坦及土库曼斯坦等3个国家;东部畜牧区,为吉尔吉斯斯坦。同时,在对丝绸之路经济带分区的基础上对经济带上沿线国家的农业经济协作提出了3方面建议,分别是应注重各协作区功能产业的顶层设计,尤其是在农业生产基地的布局上,要将协作区农业与城市、工业的联动发展作为首要因素,实现各协作区的互利共赢;选择与各协作区特色农业资源、优势农业产业相适宜的发展模式,积极调整与优化产业结构;建立健全分工与协作机制,合作共进以实现丝绸之路经济带沿线各国经济一体化的目标。     

THE ECONOMIC POLITY OF FARM POLICY

A review of the ‘new political economy’ of agricultural policies includes models of social income maximising governments, collective action by ‘pressure groups’, and the interaction between politicians and voters. An alternative explanation for Olson's “social by-product” theory for why farmers received massive subsidies as a large group is also presented. An explanation for various patterns of farm policy interventions is given, including why rich countries subsidise and poor countries tax farmers. Finally, the role of public research expenditures and the interaction with commodity policy is explored.     

THE DETERMINANTS OF PRICES AND EMPLOYMENT IN THE CANADIAN MEAT INDUSTRY1

This paper examines the determinants of the prices of cattle, calves, pigs, and lambs, of the wholesale and retail prices of beef, veal, pork, and lamb, and of employment in the Canadian meat industry. Of particular concern is the trade in livestock and meat between Canada and the U.S. and the degree to which Canadian prices can be said to be determined by U.S. livestock prices. Wholesale meat prices are expressed as functions of live animal prices, wages, and the volume of production in the meat processing industry. Retail prices are functions of wholesale prices and a proxy variable for labour cost at the retail level. Employment is expressed as a function of wages and the volume of production in the meal processing industry. Estimates of these relationships account for a large percentage of the variation of prices and employment in the period 1950 to 1970. Cet article étudie les facteurs déterminant les prix du gros bélail, des veaux, des pores el des moutons, les prix de gros et de bétail des viandes de boeuf, de veau, de pore et de mouton. et le miveau de ?emploi dans ?industrie canadienne de la viande. Tout parliculièrement est analysé le commerce du cheptel et de la viande entre Canada et Etats-Unis, et la mesure dans lauuelle les prix du cheptel aux Etats-Unis déterminent les prix canadiens. Les prix de gros de la viande sonl exprimés en fonciion du prix de ?animal sur pied el des salaires et volume de production dans ?induslrie de la viande; les prix de bélail en fonciion des prix de gros el ?une variable représentative du coûl de la main ?oeuvre au niveau du belail; le niveau de ?emploi en fonciion des salaires el du volume de production dans ?induslrie de la viande. Les résultats obtenus a partir de ces relations expliuueni pour une large part les variations des prix et du niveau de ?emploi duranl lapériode 1950–1970     

ECONOMIC OPTIMISATION OF SPRINKLER IRRIGATION CONSIDERING UNCERTAINTY OF SPATIAL WATER DISTRIBUTION*

The study is focused on the development and the application of a stochastic economic optimisation model by which optimal levels of applied water and sprinkler spacing are determined. Data on crop-water production function and uniformity of water application are taken from a sprinkler irrigation plot of sweet corn. It was found that a saving of irrigation water can be achieved not only by raising water prices but also by increasing application uniformity.     

THE ECONOMIC ADVANTAGE OF LONGEVITY IN THE DAIRY COW

An adaptive stochastic dynamic programming model is described which solves the optimum replacement decision problem for the dairy cow under physical and financial assumptions currently typical for the UK. By expressing the expected net present value of the replacement heifer as an annuity equivalent under various assumptions with and without enforced (involuntary) culling an estimate of the value of longevity was obtained and an assessment made of its sensitivity to key assumptions. Increased longevity added about $20 per extra lactation per year on to the investment potential of the replacement dairy heifer under the assumptions made. This figure is sensitive to replacement cost, but could be used to provide economic values for longevity as part of an economic breeding objective for dairy cattle in the UK.     

THE ECONOMIC VALUE OF SOIL SURVEY INFORMATION

Claims for the general economic benefits of soil maps as planning tools have remained largely unsubstantiated. This study offers a method of assessing the value of the information provided by a soil map. Its value depends on the quality of the map, and on the difference in payoffs between alternative management practices. Using only data normally available to agricultural planners, the value of a map may be calculated before its survey. The problem is one of decision-taking under uncertainty. A computer programme has been compiled to calculate the benefit from soil surveys of differing quality and is applied to data from a peach-growing area in Australia.