AGRICULTURAL TRADE LIBERALISATION AND THE URUGUAY ROUND*

With the Punta del Este Declaration, agriculture was accorded prominence in the GATT negotiations and, for the first time, national support policies were on the agenda. In this paper, the progress of the negotiations on agriculture is reviewed in an attempt to understand the factors which shaped the final outcome and to assess the likely impact of the round on liberalising agricultural trade. Although the immediate impact is likely to be modest, the round will provide longer term benefits to agricultural trade through the extension of the GATT rules-based system to agriculture. The framework which has been laid should provide a sound basis for future negotiations. Within the multilateral framework, the pace of change is a function of the willingness of all parties to compromise and this is evident in the Uruguay Round's outcome which reflects the European Union's agricultural reform agenda.     

LIBERALISING OECD AGRICULTURAL POLICIES IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: EFFECTS ON TRADE AND WELFARE

A dynamic, stochastic, multi-commodity model of world food markets is used to estimate the effects of liberalising agricultural policies in industrial countries. The effects on international and domestic prices, on trade volumes and on economic welfare of a phased liberalisation of industrial-country policies between 1988 and 1992 are compared with the effects of a similar hypothetical liberalisation in the early 1980s. The results suggest that, because of the dramatic increase in agricultural protection during the 1980s, the effects of a liberalisation under the Uruguay Round would be, in real terms, more than double those that would have resulted from a similar liberalisation a decade earlier. Major gainers are consumers in Western Europe and Japan and farmers in developing countries. But the cost to tax-payers in Western Europe is also escalating, not to mention the burden on non-agricultural producers in those countries whose competitiveness is reduced by farm policies. These domestic pressures from treasuries and from producers of non-farm products, together with greater international pressure for reform from agricultural-exporting countries, have raised the probability of at least some liberalisation during the Uruguay Round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

AGRICULTURE IN THE URUGUAY ROUND: AMBITIONS AND REALITIES

Agricultural trade policies are basically a function of domestic policy considerations which have produced high levels of support in many countries. New policy instruments such as direct payments, which are more demanding in terms of information costs but which distort resource allocation less, are becoming more attractive. Unilateral liberalisation is, however, unlikely. Freer trade is a public good which requires international collective action to be provided. Countries which have a clear-cut trade interest in liberalising markets for commodities they export can play the role of catalyst in international co-ordination. The existence of big players is a favourable factor. Hence, the drift of the Round towards a co-ordination of US-EC interests. Both political economy and trade interest considerations suggest that an agreement reached will have its main impact on crops which are widely traded. The main constraining factor of an agreement on EC and US agriculture will be the discipline it will impose on the use of export subsidies. Agriculture will still not come fully under GATT rules which apply to other sectors, but in the future the CAP will be more constrained by international commitments than in the past.     

RISK PERCEPTION AND THE ANALYSIS OF RISK ATTITUDES*

Risk has long been recognised as an important feature of the environment facing farmers. In recent years the von Neumann-Morgenstern expected utility theory has been used to analyse decision making under risk. However, many people behave in a manner inconsistent with the expected utility theory. One widely suggested explanation is based on subjective probability distortion. A number of attempts to incorporate this phenomenon into utility theories have been made. In this paper, the problems of analysing subjective probability distortion are discussed. Evidence from a survey of farmers' risk attitudes undertaken in conjunction with the 1977 BAE Australian Agricultural and Grazing Industries Survey is analysed in the light of this discussion.     

THE IMPACT OF CHANGES IN TRADE POLICY ON DEVELOPING COUNTRY AGRICULTURE*

The Uruguay Round of trade negotiations has attracted much attention in the developing countries. It promises to weaken moves towards bilateral trade agreements, break open trade in temperate agricultural products, and should remove the last vestiges of protection against tropical products – although tariff escalation will remain. Overall, the main gains for the developing world will probably accrue to exporters of temperate products, above all those in Latin America; whilst for some of the poorer countries, losses may occur as the benefits of special and favoured access to the industrialised countries' markets will be eroded.     

OBJECTIVE AND SUBJECTIVE INFLUENCES ON THE DECISION TO TRADE ON THE LONDON POTATO FUTURES MARKET

Among dealers in the physical commodity, the benefits associated with risk reduction are important factors in motivating the decision to engage in futures trading. Although it is possible to evaluate, in an objective sense, the ability of a market to reduce risk, actual and potential users may also be heavily influenced by their subjective assessments of the performance and reliability of a futures market. This paper argues that the recent decline in the level of usage of the London Potato Futures Market may be more the product of unfavourable attitudes to trading than of a decline in the performance of the market with respect to risk reduction.     

A STUDY OF BANANA SUPPLY AND PRICE PATTERNS ON THE SYDNEY WHOLESALE MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF SPECTRAL ANALYSIS*

Spectral analysis is applied to weekly supply and price series for bananas traded on the Sydney wholesale market. Many interesting features are revealed such as the pronounced seasonal component and the two week lag structure between the supply and price series. These results are discussed in relation to the known behaviour of the market and some implications for marketing decisions are tentatively drawn.     

THE PATTERN OF INTERNATIONAL TRADE IN FARM MACHINERY*

This paper is a detailed comparison of the actual 1967 world trade patterns in tractors, harvesting machinery, and cultivating machinery and the ideal least-cost trade patterns in these three commodities. This comparison gives a measure of the opportunity costs the world pays for having the actual trade patterns instead of the least-cost trade patterns. It also helps one identify the production centres that are best located to serve world demands. The model used enables one to measure the way in which customs duties influence the cost advantages of different production centres. It also measures the significance of transportation costs as a natural barrier protecting the domestic farm machinery industry in different countries. The year 1967 was selected for study because the Canadian Royal Commission on Farm Machinery provided some cost data relevant for that time period. Cet article comprend une comparaison détaitée des caractéristiques réels du commerce mondial (en 1967) en tracteurs el machines agricoles avec les caractéristiques idéales de commerce au moindre coût pour ces mêmes produits. Cette comparaison donne une mesure des coûts d'opportunité que le monde paie pour avoir les caractéristiques réel les au lieu des caractéristiques de commerce au moindre coût. Ceci nous aide également à identifier les centres de production qui sont le mieux placer pour servier la demande mondiale. Ce modèle nous permet de mesurer dans quelle manière les tarifs douaniers influencent les avantages, en matière de coût, de differents centres de production. 11 nous permet également de mesurer la signification des coûts de transport comme obstacle natural protectant I'industrie de machines agricoles dans different pays. Nous avons choisi pour notre étude l'annié 1967 parce que la Commission Royale D'Enquête Relative Aux Machine Agricoles a mis à notre disposition des données concernant les coûts se rapportant à ladite période.     

MARKET DISTORTIONS IN BRAZILIAN AGRICULTURE: AN ANALYSIS OF THE EFFECTS OF GOVERNMENT POLICY ON THE BEEF AND DAIRY SECTORS

Intervention in the beef and dairy sectors has been the core of Brazilian agricultural policy. An econometric model of these sectors is used as a tool with which to measure the consequences of government-induced market distortions on prices, production, consumption and external trade. It is argued that large economic losses and a less egalitarian distribution of income have been the results of government policy to date.     

AGRICULTURAL PRICE POLICY,FOOD AID AND INPUT SUBSIDY REFORMS IN BURKINA FASO

This paper examines the agrarian decline in Burkina Faso that prompted structural adjustment reforms by the World Bank and the IMF in the early 1980s. Official interventions in the cereals, cotton and fertiliser sectors are examined, and an analysis made of regional impacts of the proposed reforms on producers and consumers. Counter-factual simulations with a multi-region, multi-commodity agricultural sector model are used to evaluate three policies: eliminating input subsidies, increasing official market commodity prices, and reducing food aid imports. Model results show that these reforms would improve agricultural-sector performance, but depend on cotton exports to pay for fertiliser, contrary to government self-sufficiency objectives. Relaxing capacity constraints on official marketing operations would also need to be eliminated to achieve reform objectives.     

MARKETING AGENCIES AND THE ECONOMICS OF MARKET SEGMENTATION*

Increasing importance is being attached to market segmentation strategies as a means of increasing producer returns. In this paper, a generalised model of price discrimination without supply control is developed to analyse the implications of optimal segmentation strategies for non-homogeneous products. It is shown that the magnitude of producer returns is dependent on demand and supply conditions, with increases in returns falling as price elasticities of demand and supply increase. The model is applied to the New Zealand sheep meats industry to reveal that returns to producers from market segmentation strategies could be quite low in the long run.     

WORLD AGRICULTURAL TRADE AND MERCHANDISING OPPORTUNITIES IN THE 1970s*

"There is going to be a continuing great need for food." In a wide review of Canadian and world markets, the author makes a case for an opportunity-oriented agriculture, geared to the developing and changing market potentials of the 1970s. Canadian and world market potentials for the 1970s present attractive prospects, but the future will only be as bright as agriculture and its institutions are flexible to adapt to the emerging environment.
LES POSSIBILITÉS DE DÉVELOPPEMENT DU COMMERCE MONDIAL AGRICOLE AU COURS DE LA PROCHAINE DÉCENNIE –"Il y a un besoin croissant de biens alimentaires." Au cours ďune large revue des marchés canadiens et mondiaux, ľauteur étudie les chances ďune agriculture orientée, axée sur le développement et le changement des marchés pour les années 1970. Les possibilités de développement des marchés canadiens et mondiaux au cours de la prochaine décennie apparaissent favorables, à condition toutefois que ľagriculture et ses institutions s'adaptent au nouvel environnement.     

市场经济条件下中国海洋渔业生产函数的实证分析

本文利用1992年市场经济改革以来我国海洋渔业产量、海洋渔业劳动力就业量、沿海地区渔业固定资产投资额等数据对海洋渔业生产函数进行了拟合,主要结论有三:一是1992年以来我国海洋渔业生产函数可以拟合为:Q=5.5717×10-20×(L)4.1328×(D3)0.8274;二是海洋渔业的发展主要得益于其劳动就业量的增长,资本、技术管理对其总产量的贡献很小;三是1999年开始实施的海洋捕捞渔业“零增长”政策仅对该年产量增长起到了显著的影响作用。     

谈企业的对外投资风险及其规避

文章针对企业普遍存在的投资成功率低,投资效益低的问题,进行了投资失误原因分析,提出了规避投资风险的想法与措施.     

风险决策中全情报价值问题的讨论

根据风险决策的特点,本文深入讨论了全情报价值的概念、方法及应用问题。