AN OPTIMAL-CONTROL APPROACH TO STABILISING AUSTRALIAN WOOL PRICES*

In this paper, some aspects of the application of optimal-control techniques to wool industry price stabilisation are considered. It is not intended to provide a blueprint for the immediate adoption of optimal-control techniques in the management of wool price stablisation. Rather, the contribution is to the developmental and evaluative process involved in considering these techniques. A new econometric model of wool price and supply is also presented, since none of the existing models satisfied the requirements of the study.     

THE IMPACT OF FARM AND PROCESSING RESEARCH ON THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY*

An equilibrium displacement model of the world wool top industry is used to estimate the returns to the Australian wool industry from productivity improvements in farm production, in top making and in textile manufacturing. The returns to the industry from these different types of research and development are sensitive to the extent of substitution possibilities between Australian wool and other inputs used by the wool processing and textile industries but it appears that research resources have to be much more efficient in off-farm activities for the Australian wool industry to receive benefits similar to those from farm research activities.     

ECONOMIC EFFECTS OF RESEARCH INTO TRADED GOODS: THE CASE OF AUSTRALIAN WOOL

The final incidence of benefits and costs of wool industry research and development (R&D) undertaken in Australia depends greatly on the nature of the R&D and the way it is funded. Using preferred parameter values, the Australian share of benefits from farm-level R&D is 58 per cent (falling to 40 per cent if there is 50 per cent adoption of the new technology by producers overseas); the Australian shares of benefits from wool-processing R&D ere 24 per cent (topmaking) and 27 per cent (textile-processing). Under current funding arrangements, an Australian wool tax provides about one-eighth of total R&D funds, a matching government grant provides another one-eighth, and other public sector funds make up the remaining three-quarters. Under these arrangements, the final incidence of the costs is 95 per cent on Australians (mostly taxpayers at large), and the wool industry bears only 12.5 per cent of the costs of its R&D. One implication is that a wool tax alone is a more equitable and efficient means of financing wool-industry R&D than the current arrangements.     

FUTURES PRICES AS FORECASTS OF COMMODITY SPOT PRICES: LIVE CATTLE AND WOOL*

In this paper the foundations on which the predictive interpretation of futures prices rests are discussed, and possible reasons for the differential predictive performance of futures prices as between different commodity markets examined. The predictive performances of futures, and spot prices themselves, are tested empirically, using Australian data for wool (a continuous inventory commodity) and finished live beef cattle (virtually a non-storable commodity), by means of instrumental variables estimation.     

THE INVENTORY SCHEME FOR AUSTRALIAN WOOL

A model put forward by the Australian Wool Corporation to simulate the behaviour of the wool market under an inventory scheme is described. Some deficiencies in the model are pointed out and suggestions are made for alterations to improve the model's performance.     

PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS AND ARBITRAGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND WOOL MARKETS*

The physical characteristics of wool are important determinants of its spinning properties, yarn quality and end use. The degree to which wools from different countries of origin may be substituted has important implications for the domestic marketing policies of Australia and New Zealand. The hypothesis examined in this paper is that the differences in wool prices can be explained by differences in the physical characteristics of the wool and that objective measures of these characteristics allow for effective arbitrage between these markets. The alternative hypothesis is that premiums or discounts exist owing to country of origin. A hedonic price analysis was conducted on wool prices in Australia and New Zealand using a balanced sample of sale lot data from the 1986-87 selling season. In the year examined, there was no evidence of any price premiums associated with country of origin.     

RATIONAL EXPECTATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL INDUSTRY

The process by which producers form expectations has implications for model building and policy analysis. An econometric model of the Australian wool market is estimated. It is shown that the rational expectations hypothesis is not inconsistent with the data for both the period before the floor price scheme was implemented and since that date. This finding has important implications, since it has been shown that the welfare gains from stabilisation are small if producers form rational expectations.     

EFFECTS OF MINERAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE ECONOMY*

R. G. Gregory's article on the effects of mineral discoveries on the Australian economy (Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, August 1976) has attracted much attention. While the partial-equilibrium nature of his model has enabled it to be absorbed readily, it has the usual theoretical limitations of such analyses. Allowing for general equilibrium repercussions, but still accepting his general assumptions, some of Gregory's conclusions regarding the impact of new mineral discoveries require modification or extension:

• (a) Although production of goods other than minerals can be expected to decline, the production of some goods in this category may rise;
• (b) A social gain is still possible even if outputs of other goods do not change;
• (c) While the price of non-tradeable goods can be expected to rise, production of non-tradeables may increase or decrease.

We also show the magnified effect of mineral discoveries on the rents of factors specific to minerals, and the squeeze exerted on the rents of factors specific to other tradeables.     

WOOL POLICY IN THE UNITED STATES: ITS DIRECT IMPACT ON AUSTRALIAN EXPORTS

Australian apparel wool exports to the United States are less than they might be because of two protective policies of the U.S. government: a fixed tariff and a system of direct price.support payments to U.S. wool producers. Dismantling these policies, though difficult, could mean $10 million to $21 million worth of additional Australian wool sales to the United States, over 1966 levels. Most of the increase would come from tariff cuts. Such amounts are worth negotiating for but would not solve the industry's problems.     

ASSESSING SOME EFFECTS OF INFLATION ON THE AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

The time pattern of effects of inflation on prices received, prices paid, asset returns, and real incomes of different members of the agricultural sector is described. In the long run it is argued that inflation will have very small, if any, effects on relative prices or real incomes. For the short run, which may be several years, it is likely that some prices will rise more slowly than others and cause income losses. Included in the group of losers are producers of export products.     

ESTIMATING SOURCES OF FLUCTUATIONS IN THE AUSTRALIAN WOOL MARKET: AN APPLICATION OF VAR METHODS

Vector autoregression (VAR) methods are used to analyse the contribution of supply, demand and policy shocks to unpredictable fluctuations in the market for Australian wool. VAR procedures are compared with conventional structural econometric models as methods for decomposing sources of instability. While each has advantages and disadvantages, VAR procedures might be viewed as preferable when the underlying market structure is complex and uncertain, as it is in the case of wool. Based on the results obtained, demand shocks are the dominant source of uncertainty in the wool market in the absence of Australian Wool Corporation intervention, but intervention has blunted their effects, reducing market uncertainty and increasing the average level of prices and revenues.     

EMPIRICAL TESTS OF SPATIAL AND STRUCTURAL EFFECTS ON CATTLE AUCTION PRICES

Two investigations are reported. The first is a comparison of average prices for two cattle types within pairs of some major auction centres in Australia. Significant price differences existed in three of the four cases studied. The second is a study of the main determinants of price differences between auction selling centres through a case study of a large and small auction centre. The major factor explaining the price differences between the two auction centres was lot size. This factor also influenced price variation within auctions. The number of buyers purchasing cattle did not affect price levels.     

A NOTE ON BIAS IN THE ESTIMATED EFFECTS OF BEEF IMPORTS ON U.S. MEAT PRICES

The impact of beef imports on United States meat prices is a highly emotional and controversial issue. Congressmen representing urban districts, and to a lesser extent the Administration, look towards beef imports as a way of containing rapid increases in meat prices. Congressmen and Senators from beef-producing States regard beef imports as a direct attack on the U.S. beef-producing industry. These differing views are being reconciled through Congress considering amendments to the Meat Import Law (Public Law 88-482). The impacts and the amendments are of vital interest to Australia because about 25 per cent of Australia's beef production is sold on the lucrative U.S. market. In this note it is argued that, in general, the reported impacts on U.S. meat prices are overestimates because the analysts misspecify the structure of the U.S. beef industry.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

Several farm sector econometric models are reviewed initially and the aggregation problem highlighted. A thirty-equation model of the Australian agricultural sector is specified in which farm output, stocks and exports and the domestic demand for farm products are endogenous, as well as farm, export and retail prices. Disaggregation is into food and non-food components of unprocessed output, and the processing of food is traced through to final demand. The model is estimated by a modified 2SLS procedure using quarterly data covering the period 1960-1970.     

THE STABILIZATION AND DISTRIBUTION EFFECTS OF THE AUSTRALIAN WHEAT INDUSTRY STABILIZATION SCHEME

The wheat stabilisation scheme has been operating for almost two decades. In this article quantitative estimates are made of the effects of the scheme upon the stability of prices and incomes and the distribution of income over the period 1948-49 to 1965-66.