广西水资源利用效率及其时空格局

水资源安全与可持续利用是联合国可持续发展目标的重要内容,水资源利用效率与时空格局分析是水资源安全与可持续利用的重要基础。基于数据包络分析方法(DEA),结合广西及其14个地级市2006—2017年用水结构与经济社会发展数据,研究了其水资源利用结构、效率及其时空分布特征。结果表明:①研究时段内,广西总用水量呈下降趋势,农田灌溉用水(60.64%)、工业用水(17.3%)、居民生活用水(9.2%)为其主要用水结构;空间上,总用水量呈桂北桂中桂东桂南桂西的格局;桂北、桂中地区各用水结构的用水量均大于其他地区,其中,桂北的农田灌溉用水量、桂中的工业用水量分别为全区之最。②研究期间,广西水资源利用效率呈增加趋势,万元GDP用水量、三产业万元产值用水量持续下降,DEA结果在2011年、2013—2017年达到有效水平;空间上,桂中、桂南水资源利用效率优于其他地区,柳州市为全区最优,百色市反之。③广西总体不存在投入冗余,但各市除柳州市和防城港市外均存在投入冗余;广西总体应从用水结构、产业结构及水资源利用的技术投入和规模投入等方面提高水资源利用效率;各市应根据自身水资源禀赋和产业结构特征改善投入情况,但重点都应加大对水资源科技的投入,以提高水资源利用效率。     

基于DEA的新能源板块上市公司评价体系研究

数据包络分析(DEA)是以相对效率概念为基础的评价方法,尤其是用以解决多输入、多输出决策单元的有效性评价问题.本文首先综述了运用数据包络分析方法进行公司财务指标研究的成果和目前的研究现状,然后从数据包络分析方法的角度出发,构建了新能源板块上市公司的财务指标评价体系,并对新能源板块上市公司的财务数据进行实证分析.     

基于合图法(co-plot)的我国省际知识产权效率分析

合图法可以在二维空间里同时进行两个变量分析。文章通过合图法,直观分析了基于数据包络分析(DEA)模型计算的2012年我国省际知识产权相对效率值及其相关指标变量特点。     

我国水资源利用效率与经济协调发展水平的脱钩分析

运用2001-2019年我国水资源利用情况和经济协调发展的相关数据,用极差化法对相关数据进行归一化处理,并利用熵权法确定各个指标的权重,采取加权算术平均法确定出相关指标的加权算术平均值,并利用DEA-BBC模型计算出我国各年度水资源利用效率。依据DEA-BBC模型下所计算的综合效率值衡量水资源利用效率值,经济协调发展指标的加权算术平均值衡量经济协调发展水平,由此将两个系统层指标确定到[0,1]区间范围内,大大增加了计算结果的规范性。进而采用Tapio协调发展脱钩评价模型科学性地对我国水资源利用效率与经济协调发展的关系进行了分析研究,验证两者目前所处的脱钩关系状态。结果表明：2001-2019年我国水资源利用效率与经济协调发展总体处于强脱钩、扩张负脱钩、弱脱钩状态,一定程度上反映出我国经济协调发展水平的提升和经济结构的优化,也体现了我国产业发展对水资源利用依赖程度的降低,明确了我国水资源利用的发展方向应向关键性领域转变,发挥水资源利用的最大优势,提升水资源利用经济效益的转化度。     

城市发展对水资源利用效率的影响——以湖南省为例

本文从投入产出的角度出发,选取固定投资总额、就业人数和用水总量作为投入指标,GDP作为产出指标,采用数据包络模型(DEA)分析中的C2R模型对2005-2014年湖南省14个市州的用水效率进行评价,并将其与城镇化率、单位GDP能耗、人均GDP进行回归分析.研究表明,湖南省各市州存在用水效率水平不高、地区差异等现象,并且湖南省各市州水资源利用效率与其城镇化水平、单位GDP能耗呈负相关关系,与经济发展水平呈正相关关系.最后为提高水资源利用效率提出建议.     

电子商务企业的DEA技术效率评价初探

文章运用数据包络分析方法对16家电子商务上市公司2007年的经营情况进行分析研究,据此找出相对效率较高的公司,并且运用差额变量分析给相对无效率的公司提供改进的意见。     

基于DEA的河南地市经济发展分析

数据包络分析方法（DEA）是一种评价具有相同类型投入和产出的若干个生产或非生产部门（决策单元）相对效率的有效方法,可用于评价区域经济综合发展。运用数据包络分析方法,通过建立具体的指标体系、模型运算,对河南省18个地市的经济效益进行了实证研究。根据技术效率相对有效性和规模效率相对有效性分析结果,提出发展河南省地市经济的建议。     

环境规制下的中国水资源利用环境技术效率测度及空间关联特征分析

基于省际水足迹和灰色水足迹等的面板数据,利用带有“非期望”产出的数据包络分析方法计算出中国省际的水资源利用环境技术效率,利用聚类分析与探索性空间数据分析(ESDA)方法研究了水资源利用环境技术效率空间分布特征.研究发现:东部的水资源利用环境技术效率明显高于中西部;中国各地区水资源利用环境技术效率呈现出正的空间相关性特征,存在着空间集聚特征.HH集聚主要分布在东部沿海一带;LL集聚主要分布在中、西部地区,在空间分布上较稳定;HL集聚和LH集聚省市较少,各时期均有变化.结果表明,文中提出的模型可以更加客观地评价环境规制背景下的水资源利用效率,具有一定的理论意义与实践价值.     

基于数据包络分析的哈尔滨都市圈产业结构诊断

本文从投入和产出的角度对哈尔滨都市豳产业结构进行分析,根据2007年各产业部门相关数据,运用数据包络分析方法（DEA）,计算出各产业部门的相对有效性,同时指出非DEA有效部门存在的不足与改进方法,为哈尔滨都市圈产业结构调整提供建议。     

基于DEA方法的中国钢铁工业生态效率分析

生态效率能够同时反映经济发展与生态环境状况。论文以中国钢铁工业为研究对象,建立基于DEA模型的生态效率投入产出指标体系,运用数据包络分析方法测算了2009—2016年中国钢铁工业的生态效率,并分析了各年度的投入冗余状况。实证结果表明,中国钢铁工业生态效率总体呈现上升趋势,且规模效率对生态效率的贡献度大于纯技术效率。通过分析可知,各年度均存在不同程度的投入冗余。文章最后对提升中国钢铁工业生态效率提出相关对策及建议。     

Modelling the domestic and foreign tourist arrivals to Tamil Nadu (India)

In recent years, due to the Indian Federal Government's and Tamil Nadu State Government's various initiatives and promotional activities, foreign and domestic tourist arrivals in Tamil Nadu are on the increase. This article aims to model the monthly tourist arrivals (foreign as well as domestic) in Tamil Nadu for monthly time series data during the period 1998 to 2002 using univariate time-series models. As both time series show strong seasonal patterns, we also investigate the possibility of seasonal unit roots in the domestic and foreign tourist arrivals series. The results show that significant growth in domestic and foreign arrivals takes place during the months December to January. Growth rate for domestic tourist arrivals is positive during April and May, but is negative for the foreign tourist arrivals during April and insignificant during May. Such information would be very useful to the Tamil Nadu government and the tourism industry in maximizing the usage of available tourist spot infrastructure and to provide high quality service.     

The performance of German water utilities: a (semi)-parametric analysis

Germany's water supply industry is characterized by a multitude of utilities and widely diverging prices, possibly resulting from structural differences beyond the control of firms’ management, but also from inefficiencies. In this article, we use Data Envelopment Analysis and Stochastic Frontier Analysis to determine the utilities’ Technical Efficiency (TE) scores based on cross-sectional data from 373 public and private water utilities in 2006. We find large differences in TE scores even after accounting for significant structural variables like network density, share of groundwater usage and water losses.     

山西省宏观经济的灰色关联分析

本文将灰色系统的关联分析法应用于区域宏观经济分析，将山西与周边省份及部分发达省市的宏观经济指标构成研究序列，采用人均国内生产总值，人均第二产业总产值和人均三产业总产值为系统特征指标，分别建立分析指标体系，对区域宏观经济指标进行了灰色关联分析，将得出的结论用于分析山西宏观经济状况，探索山西经济落后的原因，为山西省制定未来经济发规划提供科学依据。     

Forecasting annual water demands dominated by seasonal variations: the case of water demands in Mecca

Water usage in Mecca is dominated by trends and cyclical variations in the number of foreign pilgrims visiting for the annual Hajj Pilgrimage. Time series regressions show that the mean temperature in Mecca at the time of the Hajj affects the number of pilgrims, inducing a long-term cyclical pattern for this variable and therefore water usage. The cointegrating relation between water usage, number of external pilgrims and temperature produces long-run forecasts of Mecca water demand.     

DOLLARIZATION IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: RATIONAL REMEDY OR DOMESTIC DILEMMA?

This paper reviews the policy implications of dollarization in developing economies. It outlines channels of U.S. currency access abroad and illustrates progressing stages of dollarization for various country examples. It analyzes the costs of large seigniorage losses facing domestic governments vis-a-vis the U.S. issuer. Finally, it provides three explanations for the observed inertia in dedollarization following domestic stabilization policies: (i) high transactions costs of switching monies, (ii) dollar revenues related to illegal commercial activities, and (iii) network externalities associated with foreign currency usage.     

Local linkages: The interdependence of foreign and domestic firms in Ireland

This paper contributes to the literature on backward linkages—the degree of localization in input usage, focusing on the potential interdependence between foreign and domestic producer firms. Drawing on Irish sectoral data during 2000–2013, our main objective is to empirically examine how foreign and domestic producer firms' backward linkages might dynamically influence each other, and the extent to which they respond to export intensity and productivity levels from the two groups of firms. We find an interesting asymmetric interdependence pattern: (1) domestic firms' backward linkages are not impacted by the backward linkages of foreign firms; (2) more robust backward linkages of domestic firms can potentially induce more backward linkages from foreign firms; and (3) domestic firms' productivity shocks could generate a dynamic crossover impact on foreign firms' backward linkage status, but similar shocks originating from foreign firms generate little crossover impact on domestic firms’ backward linkage status. Our result on interdependent local linkages points to a potentially important role for domestic-to-domestic backward linkage formation in promoting foreign-to-domestic backward linkages.     

The impacts of China on economic growth: Evidence for Brazil,Chile, and Peru

This study empirically analyzes the direct impacts derived from the swift increase in exports to China (referred to as “the impact of China”) on the economic growth of three selected South American countries, Brazil, Chile, and Peru, during the commodity boom between 2001 and 2008. The results stemming from the balance-of-payments-constrained growth model suggest that the magnitude of China’s impact was less than 1 percent, although it ranged from the largest to the second largest impact among all trading partners for the three countries. The estimated balance-of-payments growth rate of domestic income is lower than the real growth rate of domestic income. This is because the growth rates of the export volumes were not sufficient even during the commodity boom, on account of the continued increasing trends of income elasticity of demand for imports. Furthermore, the income elasticities of demand for imports from China were especially high. Therefore, the three countries will continue to face further increase in the income elasticity of demand for imports as well as a stagnant growth rate of export volumes. Thus, the balance-of-payments position will continue to be the main growth constraint for these countries.     

集体行动逻辑与灌区农户灌溉行为分析——基于中国漳河灌区微观数据的研究

文章以漳河灌区农户灌溉行为的微观数据为基础,采用计量分析方法,论证了农户灌溉行为受大水利渠系状况、水利设施产权制度、基本用水保障率和资源禀赋等多种因素的影响;进而验证了文章提出的理论命题。研究结果显示,在优先考虑基本用水保障率较高的灌溉方式的前提下,农户会选择一种灌溉费用最小的灌溉方式;责权明晰的水利设施管理制度有利于灌溉用水费用的节约,催生了农户自主治理灌溉事物的行动;受制度环境和自身资源禀赋约束,农户灌溉事务集体行动只局限于狭小的范围内。文章认为,渠系状况的改善,水利设施治理制度的明晰,农民集体行动能力的增强是农村水利和谐发展的关键。     

Assessment of regional trade and virtual water flows in China

The success of China's economic development has left deep marks on resource availability and quality. Some regions in China are relatively poor with regards to water resources. This problem is exacerbated by economic growth. Flourishing trade activities on both domestic and international levels have resulted in significant amounts of water withdrawal and water pollution. Hence the goal of this paper is to evaluate the current inter-regional trade structure and its effects on water consumption and pollution via ‘virtual water flows’. Virtual water is the water embedded in products and used in the whole production chain, and that is traded between regions or exported to other countries. For this assessment of trade flows and effects on water resources, we have developed an extended regional input-output model for eight hydro-economic regions in China to account for virtual water flows between North and South China. The findings show that the current trade structure in China is not very favorable with regards to water resource allocation and efficiency. North China as a water scarce region virtually exports about 5% of its total available freshwater resources while accepting large amounts of wastewater for other regions' consumption. By contrast, South China a region with abundant water resources is virtually importing water from other regions while their imports are creating waste water polluting other regions' hydro-ecosystems.     

Management of non-timber forestry products extraction: Local institutions, ecological knowledge and market structure in South-Eastern Zimbabwe

Common-pool resources (CPRs), such as forests, water resources and rangelands, provide a wide variety of economic benefits to forest-fringe dwellers in semi-arid areas of southern Africa. However, the public nature and competition involved in the use of these goods, and weak enforcement of institutional arrangements governing their use may lead to resource degradation. Using survey data from four communities in south-eastern Zimbabwe for 2008 and 2009, this paper examines the extent to which forest degradation is driven by existing common property management regimes resource and user characteristics, ecological knowledge and marketing structure. A Principal Component Analysis indicates that the existence of agreed-upon rules governing usage (including costs of usage), enforcement of these rules, sanctions for rule violations that are proportional to the severity of rule violation, social homogeneity, and strong beliefs in ancestral spirits were the most important attributes determining effectiveness of local institutions in the management of CPRs. Empirical results from a regression analysis showed that resource scarcity, market integration, and infrastructural development lead to greater resource degradation, while livestock income, high ecological knowledge, older households, and effective local institutional management of the commons reduce resource degradation. The results suggest that there is need for adaptive local management systems that enhance ecological knowledge of users and regulates market structure to favour long-term livelihood securities of these forest-fringe communities.