资本新市场——伟大的博弈

2001-2010是中国经济高速发展的黄金十年，这十年，中国资本市场积极向上生长，不仅取得了规模的扩张，也实现了质的升华。股权分置改革完成，股市迎来全流通时代；中小企业板、创业板横空出世，多层次资本市场体系初现；投资者结构不再以散户为主，机构投资者多样性不断提高，规模不断壮大；QFII、QDII开启资本市场对外开放之门……中国资本市场已经做好了迎接未来十年挑战的充分准备。     

正确认识当前的股票市场走势——股市的暴风雨降至

中国股市仅经过了十余年的发展,无论是在制度上还是在监管方式上都存在很多问题。2006年是不平凡的一年,在这一年里,我国的证券市场出台了新的《证券法》,在今年年底或明年年初将推出的融资融券业务、股指期货以及T+0交易,这一系列制度上的革新将使我国股市与国际股市彻底接轨。调节经济的手段---利率有上调周期与下调周期之分,利率上调将导致股市下跌,利率下调将导致股市上涨。而目前的市场,利率与存款准备金率都处于上调过程中,但股市却一直在上涨,本文主要从股市当前所处的背景出发分析其中原因,以期对广大投资者有所裨益。     

南非将有大量投资涌入

在2009年开春，MSCI新兴市场指数就出现了重大的调整，南非权重超越金砖四国的印度和俄罗斯，成为MSCI新兴市场指数中的第五大权重国。专家们预计，在MSCI调整权重后，市场至少会有50亿美金将因此流入南非股市。     

审视创业板对资本市场的制度性伤害

人们常说资本市场的表现是一国经济发展的晴雨表,这一规律在现今中国却不必然。因为从宏观面分析中国经济持续不断的高速增长,2011年一季度GDP同比增长依旧高达11.9%;微观面分析沪深两地上市公司2010年实现营业收入、营业利润和归属于上市公司股东的净利润同比增幅均在30％以上。然而这两年来中国股市的涨幅不及巴西、印度和俄罗斯等金砖国家．也不如欧美等经历金融危机的发达国家。经济数据的一片利好却伴随着股市的持续低迷．     

资金撤离亚太对市场冲击有多大

近期亚洲市场震荡也是对早前过热市场的一种回调。毕竟前两年全球投资者对东南亚国家经济普遍持有乐观预期,大量资金流入不仅刺激了个人消费与投资,也导致各国工资、股市、资产大幅上涨。由于美国量化宽松政策退出时点迫近以及亚洲新兴经济体宏观经济指标有恶化趋势,近日亚太地区资金撤离的迹象尤为明显,其中尤以印度、印尼市场为重灾区,两国货币遭到抛售,过去四个多月来,印尼盾跌幅超11%,印度卢比更是下跌超过16%。而受到汇率贬值的影响,上述国家的股市与债市资金也大量流出。市场担心,这是否是新一轮亚洲金融危机的前兆?     

通讯类

印度电信部长称,印度计划邀请外国投资改善印度的电信设施,以期在1997年以前让全国60万个村庄都有电话连线。此举显示了印度电信设备市场巨大的潜力。 为了实现1991年起推动的彻底经济改革目标,印度今年5月中止了数十年的政府电话垄断措施,新政策开放民间投资电信市场。 目前,印度有300万人等着装电话,但对资金短缺的印度政府来说,至少需要2300亿卢比(约174亿美     

“股权分置”引出的激辩

十年来，反反复复国有股减持，造成了中国股市一次一次的起起落落。国有股减持在这10年屡试屡败，股市在一次又一次的振荡中血雨腥风。在屡次尝试和失败的过程中，无论是管理层、学术层还是其他市场参与者，都已经逐步达成共识，即股权分置问题不解决，中国股市难以健康发展。解决“股权分置”最终拿出的将会是什么样的方案?是否意味着中国股市迎来了一个重大的转折?中间的利益如何博弈?在搜狐财经股权分置沙龙上，学者们就此问题进行了激辩。     

谨慎面对不确定因素

从做多中国股市的十大理由我们可以得出这样的结论:股市是虚拟经济,即使出现泡沫在所难免,但A股估值仍没脱离经济基本面,2007年牛市仍将继续。但是,需要提醒的是:2007年股市与2006年相比,市场的振荡将加剧,股民心惊肉跳之余要适当降低盈利预期。     

走向健康发展的中国股市

国务院总理温家宝在十届全国人大五次会议上回答中外记者的第一个问题,就是关于中国股市的问题。温总理讲:“我关注股市的发展,但更关注股票市场的健康发展。第一,提高上市公司的质量;第二,要建立一个公开、公正、透明的市场体系;第三,要加强资本市场的监管,特别是完善法制。最后,要加强股市市场情况的信息的及时披露,使股民增强防范风险的意识。”这正是一位国家总理对股市、股民负责任的回答。     

走向健康发展的中国股市

国务院总理温家宝在十届全国人大五次会议上回答中外记者的第一个问题，就是关于中国股市的问题。温总理讲：“我关注股市的发展，但更关注股票市场的健康发展。第一，提高上市公司的质量；第二，要建立一个公开、公正、透明的市场体系；第三，要加强资本市场的监管，特别是完善法制。最后，要加强股市市场情况的信息的及时披露，使股民增强防范风险的意识。”这正是一位国家总理对股市、股民负责任的回答。     

Devaluation,Innovation, and Prices

We investigate the effects of exchange rate changes on innovation by a multinational corporation. The firm enjoys a monopoly in the home market but engages in Cournot competition with a domestic firm in the foreign market. Changes in currency values affect the multinational firm’s profits in domestic currency units, and thus influence the optimal level of process innovation as well as output and prices in the two markets. We find that a devaluation of the home currency will lead the home firm to increase its output in both the home and foreign markets, and increase its spending on R&D. We also find that currency devaluation in the home market leads to lower prices in both markets.     

China's segmented stock market: An application of the conditional international capital asset pricing model

China's segmented stock market provides an opportunity to study conditional international asset pricing from multiple viewpoints—domestic and foreign. We use the multivariate GARCH-M framework of De Santis and Gérard [De Santis, G., and Gérard, B., 1998. How big is the premium for currency risk? Journal of Financial Economics 49, pp. 375–412.], but add conditional local specific risk and find global, local, and currency risk to be priced and time-varying in Chinese markets, suggesting mild segmentation for developing country markets. The time-varying price of currency risk indicates that the strict currency restrictions in China do not sufficiently reduce currency risk to stabilize the price of currency risk. We also find that the price of local risk in the Chinese A stock market is non-time-varying relative to the developed market, but time-varying relative to the emerging market. This finding implies that the Chinese A stock market is more comparable to a developed market than an emerging market. However, results on Chinese B shares show the opposite relationship: from a foreign investor's perspective, Chinese B shares are better categorized as being emerging than developed. This is further supported by an Engle–Granger cointegration test.     

中国崛起背景下的涉外金融安全问题与对策

中国崛起背景下的涉外金融安全问题,主要表现在三个方面,即资本账户开放的安全问题、外汇储备资产或外汇资产的安全问题、国际支付结算体系的安全问题。导致中国涉外金融安全问题的外部原因是本币不具备储备货币的国际地位,需要从外部获得储备货币,必然缺乏安全;人民币汇率的信用依靠美元等储备货币背书,中国经济崛起也曾经依赖美元顺差;美国可以利用美元账户对资金、资产交易、跨境支付结算等,实施行政处罚、限制、冻结等制裁,乃至剔除出账户系统。内部原因是中国经济崛起,美国要打压和制裁;金融开放如果在汇率制度选择、外汇管制和管控上处理不当,允许储备货币资金完全自由进出而无约束,则必然存在金融危机的可能;国际收支失衡导致涉外金融缺乏安全。解决涉外金融安全问题应从四个方面着手:一是通过货币互换和多元化投资等方式保障外汇(储备)资产安全;二是通过提倡主权货币计价、支付、结算、融资,以及开展相关制度设计等方式建设好交易和支付结算系统;三是把握好资本账户开放;四是做好人民币国际化的基础工作。     

Market integration and contagion: Evidence from Asian emerging stock and foreign exchange markets

This paper examines whether Asian emerging stock markets (India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand) have become integrated into world capital markets since their official liberalization dates by estimating and testing a dynamic integrated international capital asset pricing model (ICAPM) in the absence of purchasing power parity (PPP) using an asymmetric multivariate GARCH(1,1)-in-Mean approach. Also examined in this paper is whether there are pure contagion effects between stock and foreign exchange markets for each Asian country during the 1997 Asian crisis. The empirical results show that first, both currency and world market risks are priced and time-varying, suggesting that an international asset pricing model under PPP and constant price of risk might give rise to model misspecification. Second, the stock markets for India, Korea, Malaysia, Philippines, and Thailand were segmented from the world capital markets before their liberalization dates, but all six markets have become fully integrated since then. Third, the market liberalization has reduced the cost of capital and price volatility for most of the countries. Finally, as for the contagion effects, strong positive impact of return shocks originating from the domestic stock market to its foreign exchange market during the crisis is found. This dynamic relationship between stock market and foreign exchange market is consistent with stock-oriented exchange rate models.     

Local currency systemic risk

Emerging country governments increasingly issue local currency denominated bonds and foreign investors have been increasing their holdings of these assets. By issuing debt denominated in local currency, emerging country governments eliminate exchange rate risk. The growing stock of local currency government debt in the financial portfolios of foreign investors increases their diversification and exposure to fast growing economies. In this paper, we highlight some of the risks associated to this recent trend. First, we adopt the CoV aR risk-measure to estimate the vulnerability of individual countries to systemic risk in the market for local currency government debt. Second, we show that our country-level estimates of vulnerability increase with the share of local currency debt held by foreign investors. A version of the old adage “When New York sneezes, London catches a cold,” used often to describe the relationship between the stock markets in these two cities, still applies between individual emerging countries and the aggregate market for local currency government debt.     

KEY WDRDS for Foreign Investment in China

FDI(Foreign Direct Investment),a component of a country's national financlal accounts,is investment of foreign assets into domestic structures,equipment,and organizations.It does not include foreign investment into the stock markets,concession and subcontract.FDI iS thought to be more useful to a country than investments in the equity of its companies because equity investments are potentially "hot money"which can leave at the first sign of trouble,whereas FDI is durable and generally useful whether things go well or badly.     

我国外贸出口将逐步陷入长期困境

2011年下半年以来,我国外贸出口增长率急剧下降,2012年2月还出现了多年未见的贸易逆差。通过对宏观经济的全面研究,由于我国物流成本居高不下,人力、资源、土地、环境等成本不断增长,主要出口目的地欧美市场萎靡不振、新兴市场开发缓慢,替代竞争者成长迅速,税收体系不合理,生产效率低下,人民币持续升值,这些都必将导致我国外贸出口越来越陷入困境。要解决这些问题,我国经济必须在制度层面进行彻底改革,进行产业升级,开发出一系列能够带动我国乃至世界经济走出困境的新兴产业,占领世界经济发展的制高点。     

Indian economy and Indian private equity

India's gross domestic product has been growing at more than 8% in the past few years, making it the fourth‐largest economy in terms of purchasing power parity. According to a Goldman Sachs report, India could become the second‐largest economy in the world by 2050. The key growth drivers are investments in infrastructure, domestic consumption, and a hub for global outsourcing. This is further supported by growth‐oriented policies by the government. The favorable environment has led to the growth of the private equity market. India received approximately U.S. $17.5 billion of investments in private equity in 2007, making it the number‐one destination in Asia. Indian private equity has been mainly focused on providing growth/expansion capital to the company as compared to buyouts in the developed markets. © 2008 ICICI Bank Limited. Printed with permission.     

A French migrant business network in the period of export-led growth (ELG) in Mexico: The case of the Barcelonnettes

After independence, Mexico became the destination for a current of migration from Barcelonnette, France. This migration increased between 1870 and 1930. The combination of several conditions, strategies, and characteristics of these businessmen’s social networks allowed a significant proportion to become wealthy. This paper uses the example of the Barcelonnettes to show that the development of manufacturing industry in Mexico was not directly dependent on the need for foreign currency generated by exports in this period; however these manufacturers benefited from the growth of the domestic market, which was the result of increase of exports of primary goods.     

The effect of host country Internet infrastructure on foreign expansion of Korean MNCs

This study examines the effect of host country Internet infrastructure on a multinational corporation (MNC) foreign expansion. Using Heckman’s selection model on a sample of 2589 subsidiaries of 487 Korean MNCs between 1990 and 2011, we find that host country Internet infrastructure is important in MNC expansion decisions. In addition, we find that a well-developed Internet infrastructure within a host country leads to more investments from MNCs producing consumer over industrial goods and is more attractive to domestic market followers than market leaders. We find that the host country’s Internet infrastructure is important for an MNC foreign expansion decision, suggesting that efficient communication within an MNC is critical in coordinating globalized MNC subsidiary operations.