Autoverkopen en autopark in Nederland, 1950–1970

Summary  This is a study of the demand for the ownership of new or firsthand cars, i.e. the demand of 'first owners' who habitually buy new cars which are then traded in long before they are obsolescent. Upon combining the evidence of various surveys with time-series for 1950-64 it is found that this ownership has an income elasticity of 2 and a price elasticity of – 1.25 in respect of the constant-quality index of new car prices earlier provided. On the average new cars are traded in after three years so that roughly one third of the existing stock is replaced every year. These values together determine an equation for purchases of new cars which accurately predicts new registrations in 1965 and 1966. Projections for the years 1967-70 are provided.
In the model employed the total number of cars (including used cars) is determined by the active demand exerted by 'first owners' on one hand and by the hitherto fairly constant scrappage rates on the other. Projections of the overall ownership rate can therefore be derived from the forecasts of new registrations. The ownership rate will approach 80% around 1970, and it is likely that at that stage the current scrappage rates will cease to apply in view of the greater predilection for comparatively younger cars.     

Strikes and strike trends in West Germany, 1950–78

During the 1970s West German social scientists began to pay more attention to the strike phenomenon. In this article the author reviews recent research contributions in the Federal Republic and analyses the quantitative and qualitative aspects of strikes over the last thirty years.     

Prices,wages, and import prices in Israel: 1970–1983

This paper presents an empirical investigation of the dynamics of prices, wages and import prices in a small open economy using data for Israel in the accelerating inflationary period of 1970–1983. The appropriateness of the specification of a price equation as a function of import prices and wages is critically reviewed using Sims's methodology. The main finding is that the only significant lags in the representation of the rate of change in prices, wages and import prices are the lags of the rate of change in prices (the rate of inflation). Other factors in the representation are attributed to market forces influencing real wages and the real exchange rate. Testing the correlation of the estimated VAR residuals leads to the conclusion that a short-term inflation equation specified as a function of present and past wages is not acceptable. A further decomposition of the VAR residuals presents evidence in favour the hypothesis that price shocks contribute to the explanation of the inflationary process in Israel. A rational expectation interpretation of the results is proposed, followed by some policy implications.     

The housing market impact of state-level anti-discrimination laws, 1960–1970

This paper measures the housing-market impact of state-level anti-discrimination laws in the 1960s using household-level and census-tract data. State “fair-housing” laws were the direct antecedents of the federal Fair Housing Act of 1968, and policy variation across states facilitates estimates of the laws' impact. During the 1960s, Blacks' housing-market outcomes improved relative to Whites', and the proportion of exclusively White census tracts declined markedly, but there is little evidence that the fair-housing laws contributed to those changes. There is some evidence that Black renters may have benefited from the laws, but the bulk of the evidence suggests insignificant effects on Blacks' housing-market outcomes, the level of residential segregation, and the value of property in predominantly Black neighborhoods.     

Optimale rantsoenering van aardolie en aardolieprodukten in Nederland; een toepassing van input-outputanalyse en lineaire programmering

Samenvatting Bij een invoerrestrictie van ruwe olie ontstaat het probleem van de optimale verdeling van de olie over de verschillende bedrijfstakken. Met behulp van input-outputanalyse kan dit probleem worden getransformeerd in een lineair-prograrnmeringsvraagstuk. In het navolgende artikel worden een aantal oplossingen gepresenteerd die men verkrijgt bij verschillende veronderstellingen omtrent bezuinigingsmogelijkheden, verbruiksminima enz.     

Output and unemployment dynamics in the United States: 1950–1985

For US data over 1950–1985 the stochastic components of GNP growth and the unemployment rate appear to be stationary, and there is substantial feedback between these variables. The unconditional mean rate of unemployment in a joint model thus provides a natural benchmark in discussions of the ‘business cycle’. A bivariate VAR model is used to describe output–unemployment dynamics, to estimate the degree of persistence of output innovations, and to decompose output into trend and cycle. The bivariate results are interpreted using a restricted VAR and it is shown that a closely related cyclical measure can be obtained directly from the Okun's Law equation.     

The intensity of land use in urban employment sectors: Chicago 1956–1970

Net employment density and net floor space density (floor area ratio) in four employment sectors are examined for metropolitan Chicago in 1956 and 1970. The study also includes the formation and preliminary evaluation of a model of land-use intensity.     

Boom, bust, and the poor: Poverty dynamics in the Middle East and North Africa, 1970–1999

This paper analyzes changes in poverty and inequality in the Middle East and North Africa. It finds that the structural relationship between poverty reduction, income growth and distribution is the same for MENA and other developing economies. Prior to 1985 rapid growth sharply reduced poverty. After 1985, despite very low income growth, a rising share of income accruing to the lowest quintile meant that the average income of the poor rose more rapidly than that of the non-poor. These unusual poverty dynamics were primarily due to international migration. Remittances both increased per capita incomes in labor exporting countries and increased the share of income accruing to the poor.     

Markets, Culture and Institutions: The Emergence of Large Business Groups in Taiwan, 1950s–1970s

Business groups are a special type of enterprise system existing in almost every market economy. Member firms do not operate as isolated units in the markets but have institutionalized relationships with each other and work coherently as an entity. Groups play a central role in economies in which they operate. For Taiwan, the largest 100 groups produced one third of the GNP in the past 20 years. Why does this organizational form exist in the first place? This paper reviews three relevant theories, market‐centred theories, culturalist perspective, and the institutional approach, and employs the data of 150 Taiwanese groups for the answer. The market‐centred theories and the institutional arguments are examined statistically and the latter is supported by the data. Following this evidence, the Boolean comparison of group firms with non‐group firms confirms that lacking a coherent core in ownership and management makes firms unable to respond to institutional incentives promptly. Finally, the structure of family ownership network in business groups refutes the cultural perspective which argues that the equal inheritance pattern of family property drives entrepreneurs to establish separate firms rather than single hierarchies. While both markets and culture play a distinct part in the story, it is regulatory institutions that lead to group formation.     

The behaviour of U.K. export prices of manufactured goods 1970–1983

This paper examines the importance of expectations in the determination of U.K. export prices. Export prices are found to depend upon expectations of total domestic unit costs and foreign prices. The non-linear restrictions implied by the forward-looking model are found to hold and it performs adequately relative to a backward-looking error feedback model. The law of one price is rejected and the evidence is consistent with imperfect competition in export markets.