A MODEL OF NEW ZEALAND APPLE SUPPLY RESPONSE TO TECHNOLOGICAL CHANGE*

A supply response model for New Zealand apples is specified and equations for new plantings, removals, yields and adoption of an innovation are estimated. The model expands on perennial crop models previously estimated by incorporating the time pattern of adoption of a planting innovation and formulation of a measure of yield expectations given technological change.     

NEW ZEALAND BEEF AND SHEEP SUPPLY RELATIONSHIPS

The primary purposes of this study are to measure major relationships describing the responses of different components of sheep and beef farming capital stock in New Zealand to changes in economic conditions, and to investigate the way in which this capital stock has changed over time. These objectives are pursued by attempting to specify an econometric model that recognises joint production between sheep and beef cattle and also takes account of joint firm/household decision making. Aggregate New Zealand data for the period 1952/53 to 1973/74 are fitted to the model using Full Information Maximum Likelihood estimation.     

THE POLICY IMPLICATIONS OF POSSIBLE NEW ZEALAND WHEAT PRICING SCHEMES*

An empirical policy simulation analysis that was performed prior to the adoption of the revised N.Z. wheat pricing arrangements is reported. The analysis was particularly timely as it coincided with, and made an input to, discussions between the various parties attempting to derive an improved wheat pricing scheme. The implications of making N.Z. farm-gate wheat pricing more responsive to world market prices were assessed using a simulation model to distill information on the impact of alternative pricing schemes on those criteria thought to be of interest to policymakers. The results also indicated how the recently announced new scheme would have performed. This information aided public decision making, particularly in clarifying some of the trade-offs that are necessary in choosing a pricing scheme.     

A MODEL OF SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN ORANGE GROWING INDUSTRY*

A model of the Australian orange growing industry to explain changes in plantings, removals, the number and age composition of trees and orange production is developed and estimated. Most of the variation in plantings is explained by the expected profitability of growing oranges, the current stocks of bearing and nonbearing trees, and removals of trees last year. Estimates of the elasticities of response of plantings and production to price changes are low and there are long time lags. An illustrative application of the model projects future developments in the industry for alternative assumptions about the profitability of growing oranges.     

OPTIMIZING THE TRANSFER OF TAX EXEMPTIONS IN NEW ZEALAND FARM DEVELOPMENT*

Farmers and their advisers frequently face complex problems involving the scheduling of claims for tax exemptions. A case in point is the New Zealand tax law allowing farmers to transfer exemptions associated with development expenditure up to specified time horizons. This paper examines procedures for solving this, and similar, problems. Linear programming could be used, but an alternative algorithm is proposed for farm advisers whose access to computing facilities is limited. The latter procedure is intended for use with forecast budgeting in farm development planning.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A PROFIT FUNCTION APPROACH*

Profit function models for the three major regions in which the Australian sheep industry operates are specified and estimated. The supply response elasticity estimates are made using a normalised quadratic functional form and time series cross-sectional data. Elasticity estimates, together with their confidence intervals, are presented for the pastoral, wheat-sheep and high rainfall zones. In general, the supply response elasticity estimates derived in this study are lower than those previously reported for studies in which little or no account has been taken of the multi-product nature of Australian agriculture.     

SUPPLY RESPONSE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY: A CASE FOR DISAGGREGATION AND DYNAMICS*

Microeconomic capital goods theory was utilised to provide a theoretical framework on which a dynamic econometric model was based. Econometric procedures were then employed in an analysis of sheep producers' decision making regarding the annual supplies of wool, lamb and mutton, and annual changes in the inventory levels of sheep, lambs and ewes maintained for breeding purposes. Estimates show that wool prices provide the long-run stimulus for increases and decreases in the sheep flock while mutton and lamb prices are responsible for short-run changes in flock composition. Substitution between sheep and beef cattle is of considerable importance although no significant substitution between sheep and cropping could be found. Seasonal conditions proved to be an important short-run supply shifter, affecting both numbers and composition of the sheep flock.     

AGRICULTURAL REFORMS IN CHILE AND NEW ZEALAND: A REVIEW*

Chile and New Zealand are both small countries for which agricultural exports are important: both undertook comprehensive economic reforms during the 1970s and 1980s respectively. Comparison of the experiences shows that macroeconomic policy, above all the resulting movements in the real exchange rate and in interest rates, has a critical impact on agriculture. In both cases, rolling back the state has encouraged private responses. In Chile the challenges ahead lie in continuing productivity improvements, and in raising the welfare of smallholders in marginal areas. Six years after the initiation of reforms, New Zealand agriculture shows a healthy recovery. Once committed to economy-wide reforms – stabilisation, adjustment, and trade liberalisation – and companion reforms of institutions, how do governments best proceed? With what reforms and in what mix, sequence, strength, and speed? For agriculture, specifically, this paper takes a close look at which reforms, or aspects of their implementation, can accelerate or slow down private investment and aggregate supply response.     

PRODUCT CHARACTERISTICS AND ARBITRAGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN AND NEW ZEALAND WOOL MARKETS*

The physical characteristics of wool are important determinants of its spinning properties, yarn quality and end use. The degree to which wools from different countries of origin may be substituted has important implications for the domestic marketing policies of Australia and New Zealand. The hypothesis examined in this paper is that the differences in wool prices can be explained by differences in the physical characteristics of the wool and that objective measures of these characteristics allow for effective arbitrage between these markets. The alternative hypothesis is that premiums or discounts exist owing to country of origin. A hedonic price analysis was conducted on wool prices in Australia and New Zealand using a balanced sample of sale lot data from the 1986-87 selling season. In the year examined, there was no evidence of any price premiums associated with country of origin.     

A QUARTERLY MODEL OF THE AUSTRALIAN AGRICULTURAL SECTOR*

Several farm sector econometric models are reviewed initially and the aggregation problem highlighted. A thirty-equation model of the Australian agricultural sector is specified in which farm output, stocks and exports and the domestic demand for farm products are endogenous, as well as farm, export and retail prices. Disaggregation is into food and non-food components of unprocessed output, and the processing of food is traced through to final demand. The model is estimated by a modified 2SLS procedure using quarterly data covering the period 1960-1970.     

ECONOMETRIC MODEL OF THE TURKEY INDUSTRY IN THE UNITED STATES

This paper is an empirical investigation of the several major relationships that explain the behavior of the U.S. turkey industry in the 1946-66 period. A model is constructed that consists of four structural equations: (1) consumer demand, (2) farm supply, (3) cold storage accumulation, and (4) cold storage liquidation, and an identity equation. Four different estimation techniques are used to derive values for the structural parameters. These procedures are: (1) ordinary least squares (OLS), (2) limited information single equation (USE). (3) two stage least squares (TSLS). and (4) three stage squares (3SLS). The estimation techniques are evaluated by assessing their forecasting ability against observed data in the post 1966 period. So one method proved superior to another. An index of dispersion indicated that 3SLS is superior in forecasting consumer demand and farm supply. The 3SLS and OLS are about equal in forecasting cold storage accumulation, and TSLS, LISE. and OLS are about equal forecasters for cold storage liquidation. Cel article répresente une étude empirique des facleurs imporlanls qui servenl à expliquer ?induslrie américaine ?élevage de dindes. au cours de la période 1945-66. Un modèle est construit qui comporte qualre équations structurelles: la demande finale. (2) ?off re au niveau de ?exploitation agricole. (3) ?accumulation de slocks de viande congelée. et (4) le liquidation des stocks, plus une équation ?identité. Quaire différentes techniques ?estimalion sont utilisées pour déterminer la valeur des parametres: (1) simples moindres carrés, (2) équation unique avec information limitée, (3)doubles moindres carrés. et (4) triples moindres carrés. En se hasant sur la qualité des previsions par rapport aux observations de la période postérieure à 1966. on a pu évaluer les différentes techniques ?estimalion, pour se rendre compte qu'aucune méthode ne s'est avérée supérieure aux autres. Un indice de dispersion démontre que les triples moindres carrés fournissenl une meilleure prévision de la demande finale et de ?offre au niveau de ?entreprise. Les triples moindres carrés et les simples moindres carrés sont équivalents lorsqu'il s'agit de prévoir ?accumulalion des slocks. ?équation simple avec information limitée peut prédire ?écoulement des stocks avec une précision sensihlemenl égale à celle obtenue avec les simples et triples moindres carrés.     

LIVESTOCK PRODUCTION POLICIES AND MEAT PROCESSING MARGINS: THE CASE OF NEW ZEALAND, 1967-1988*

The New Zealand export meat industry has been through a considerable number of changes in the 1980s. The deregulation of export slaughter facilities, Supplementary Minimum Prices, Producer Board intervention, declining livestock numbers and domestic cost pressures have all affected the performance of the domestically based processing sector. Major changes in market access and demand have influenced off-shore marketing operations, particularly for sheepmeats. Additionally, there has been a change in the type of meat exported with a greater proportion of further processed product shipped in recent years. As an example of the impact of these developments on livestock producers, the producer share of the United Kingdom wholesale market return for a representative prime lamb carcase has fallen from 40 per cent in 1978 to 25 per cent in 1988. In this article the pattern of intervention in the New Zealand pastoral meat industries from the mid-1960s is detailed, emphasising the different environments of the beef and sheepmeat enterprises. Then the principal factors influencing domestic processing margins for these products are empirically examined. Alternative model specifications and alternative estimation techniques are compared and contrasted. The results of these analyses are discussed in terms of the historical patterns of assistance and structural change, and in terms of current rationalisation pressures on the meat processing sector.     

A SIMULATION MODEL OF AN ARID ZONE SHEEP PROPERTY

A simulation model of a pastoral property in the Western Division of New South Wales is described. Problems of applying the model to analysis of decision situations faced by graziers are reviewed, and the results of some early applications of the model are summarized.     

SOURCES AND USES OF FUNDS IN THE NEW ZEALAND FARM SECTOR

The changing pattern of funds sources and uses in the New Zealand farm sector, is summarized, using a flow of funds model. Technical problems of data and definition are discussed. The close relationship between cash farm income and investment is observed, and some indication is given of the extent of aggregate cash withdrawals (drawings) from the sector. The increasing reliance of agriculture on external sources of finance is also apparent.     

EXPORT SUPPLY RESPONSE OF THE AUSTRALIAN CITRUS INDUSTRY*

A model of export supply response of the Australian citrus industry is developed and estimated using cointegration and error correction techniques and quarterly data for the period 1983 to 1993. The estimates suggest that, even in the long run, the supply of citrus exports is inelastic with respect to relative price. The results also show that the adjustment of export supply to changes in relative price is not instantaneous, the domestic production capacity has a significant positive impact on export supply, and export supply in the June quarter in each year is significantly lower than in other quarters.     

钻石模型视角下甘肃省葡萄酒产业竞争力的研究

甘肃河西走廊作为中国葡萄酒的十大产区之一,在我国葡萄酒行业具有重要地位,因此提高甘肃省葡萄酒产业竞争力是促进我国葡萄酒行业整体发展的必由之路.本文首先在了解甘肃省葡萄酒产业发展现状的基础上,以市场占有率角度测算了甘肃省葡萄酒产业竞争力的状况,同时采用迈克尔·波特的钻石模型分析了影响甘肃省葡萄酒产业竞争力的因素,最后在总结前文的基础上提出了提升甘肃省葡萄酒产业竞争力的对策建议.     

RESOURCE MANAGEMENT,SUSTAINABILITY AND PROPERTY RIGHTS IN NEW ZEALAND*

Sustainable land management objectives in New Zealand have recently been redefined in the Resource Management Act 1991. The new legislative framework can be viewed in part as an adjustment in existing property rights to meet resource use externalities. An understanding of the structure and characteristics of property rights in land clarifies a number of issues in the area of economic efficiency and administrative practicality, and focusses on areas where appropriate solutions to externalities may be difficult to achieve.     

新疆肉羊产业养殖模式比较分析

［目的］通过分析新疆肉羊产业3种养殖模式的资源要素需求特点,探讨不同养殖模式的成本差异,实现畜牧业有限资源约束下的肉羊养殖模式选择与布局优化。［方法］以2005—2015年新疆肉羊养殖数据与分布状况为基础,梳理放牧、半舍饲、舍饲三大主要养殖模式在资源条件、投资与设施、繁育技术、育肥技术、饲养管理与疫病防控等方面的特点,对比分析3种养殖模式的成本差异。［结果］（1）放牧模式对天然草场资源和疫病防控的要求最高; 舍饲模式对饲料、繁殖技术、育肥技术、管理技术等要求较高; 半舍饲的各种要求介于放牧与舍饲之间。（2）3种养殖模式中,舍饲模式成本最低,放牧模式产品品质最高。［结论］新疆肉羊产业发展资源丰富多样,各地区应因地制宜选择肉羊养殖模式,注重肉羊生产的科学性,加强政策指导的有效性和针对性,优化肉羊产业养殖模式布局,提升新疆肉羊产业发展水平,带动农牧民增产增效增收。     

AN EVALUATION OF A NEW ZEALAND MARKETING BOARD'S SUPPLY DIVERSION STRATEGIES

It appears that the agricultural economics literature lacks much evidence upon which we can judge the performance of statutory boards as marketing institutions. This paper reports the achievements of the New Zealand Apple and Pear Marketing Board in two areas of supply diversion—the allocation of fruit between fresh and process markets, and the allocation of fresh fruit sales over time. Results indicate that the Board has achieved considerable gains for producers in the first of these areas, while in the second its behaviour has favoured consumers.