Agricultural market liberalization and structural adjustment in sub‐saharan Africa

Abstract

This paper explores the linkages between structural adjustment and the liberalization of agricultural marketing in sub‐Saharan Africa (SSA). It examines the nature of structural problems, which have been manifested in stagnating output and balance of payments difficulties. Policy responses are described, in terms of short term macroeconomic stabilization and longer term growth‐oriented adjustment policies. The process of structural adjustment in Africa is surveyed, and policies and stages in the liberalization of markets are considered. Debates on agricultural marketing in SSA are reviewed. This leads into an analysis of the specific issues which arise while marketing policy reform proceeds as an integral part of structural adjustment strategies.     

Induced Innovation in United States Agriculture, 1880–1990: Time Series Tests and an Error Correction Model

An error correction model (ECM) of induced innovation, based on the two–stage CES production function allows direct tests of the inducement hypothesis, which are applied to U.S. data for 1880–1990. The time series properties of the variables include a structural break in 1920, cointegration is established and an ECM constructed, which allows factor substitution to be separated from technological change. Causality tests show that the factor–price ratios and R&D are Granger–prior to the factor–saving biases of technological change. The inducement hypothesis is corroborated, and identified as one factor in the complex development of U.S. agriculture.     

THE RURAL POOR AND TECHNOLOGICAL OPPORTUNITY IN THE DRY ZONES OF SOUTHERN ASIA

In contributing to the appraisal and evalution of technological innovation, agricultural economists have a major but changing role to play. Whereas hitherto the concern has been chiefly to compare sharply different exogenous and indigenous technologies, the challenge now is to assess technological change of either or both these kinds

• ? in ecologically sensitive and relatively unproductive areas
• ? when the bulk of the people are poor and survival is the most common preoccupation
• ? where innovations could impinge at many points in household life-systems but are, singly, likely to have only small impact
• ? where the institutional structure will be crucial to their acceptance and might itself have to change.

     

Scottish structure plans and their role as indicators of future retail developments

Summary

In trying to form a view of what the pattern of retail development in Scotland is likely to be in the early years of next century, it is important to gain an understanding of how the physical planning framework influences the development process. Most Scottish Structure Plans now contain detailed statements of policy on retail development and the Scottish Development Department (SDD) periodically issues planning guidelines, including guidelines on the location of major retail developments. Much of this paper is taken up with analysis and interpretation of Structure Plan policies on retailing and the SDD's new planning guidelines, issued in December 1986.

Previous work in this subject area has identified common elements in Structure Plan policies on retailing and has pointed to the difficulties planners face in formulating policies appropriate to the dynamism of the industry. This paper attempts to go further than previous work by showing how policies are evolving in the face of change in the retail industry. Four broad trends in policy development are identified. The paper also describes the distinguishing features of the retailing policies of the six regional planning authorities in Scotland.

The review of Structure Plans, which was accompanied by a series of interviews with planning officers, highlighted a number of issues for further discussion. It is clear that the SDD's new guidelines on the location of major retail developments are being interpreted differently by different planning authorities and that the full intent of the guidelines has yet to emerge. Local authorities are also concerned about how the necessary environmental improvements in town and city centres are to be financed. Particularly in light of the emergence of new forms of shopping and proposals for new large‐scale and out‐of‐town developments, a further issue is the feasibility of retailing policies based on the principle of hierarchy.

Although there is no reason to suspect that the continuation of Structure Planning in Scotland may be in doubt, the question also arises of whether the plans have a future, given that Structure Planning is to be abandoned in England and Wales. The answer to the question is, ultimately, political, but Structure Planning in Scotland does appear to work. Scotland has a more coherent structure of local government than England and Wales and, unlike their counterparts elsewhere in Britain, upper‐tier local authorities in Scotland can exert strategic control over the development process by virtue of their call‐in powers.

The paper comes to the qualified conclusion that Scottish Structure Plans do, or at least have the potential to, indicate the way ahead for the pattern of retail development. The qualification is necessary because Structure Plans generally are in a state of flux and, for this reason, it is not entirely clear whether the policies are anticipating change in the retailing industry or are simply reacting to it. Some of the remaining uncertainties should be resolved, however, when Structure Plan policies are reviewed in light of the new planning guidelines.     

Support tools for land use policies based on high resolution regional air quality modelling

Air pollution is becoming a stringent issue, especially in large urban agglomerations like Bucharest, Romania. National and European air quality regulations are focusing on enforcing emission and immission limit values, but there is a poor correlation between air quality policies and land use policies, both critical to urban development.The objective of this study is to develop a methodological framework for including air quality data in policies concerning urban development and land use change. The novelty is given by the use of high-resolution regional air quality modelling data for key pollutants like PM₁₀, SO₂ and NO₂ with land use datasets. The study proposes a methodological framework based on the Urban Atlas Project’s land use classes and the WRF-Chem air quality model. Through overlay analysis of the air quality model output and land use datasets, it is possible to derive two major types of information: (1) the land use area and classes exposed to certain pollutant concentration intervals and (2) the variability of the exposed land use classes according to the air pollutants source – receptor dynamics.Results are presented in the form of applications of the methodological framework in two different case studies. The methodological framework could be used as a tool for practitioners to include and use the evidence from air pollution information in the spatial planning policies and practice. In the first case study, three PM₁₀ classes were set up in order to demonstrate the possibility to identify land use classes exposed to certain intervals of PM₁₀ concentrations and their extent. The second case study focuses on the land use classes and their extent exposed to SO₂ and NO₂ concentrations in two different meteorological scenarios during two days in September 2014.This approach could provide support for decision makers in the policy development process, resulting in more informed decisions regarding future destinations of different land categories taking into account air pollution data and indicators. This study also opens the way for future air quality satellite data (ESA Sentinel 5-P and 5), with resolutions similar to the air quality model outputs to be used in land use planning and policy development purposes.     

An empirical Coasian study on the socio-economic profiles of two politically sensitive informal settlements: Kowloon Walled City and Rennie’s Mill

Informed by the “corollary of Coase Theorem” (Lai and Hung, 2008; Lai et al., 2007), for a better understanding of the self-help post-war development of two politically sensitive and vanished places in Hong Kong, the so-called “Kowloon Walled City” (Lai, 2016; Lai and Chua, 2017; Lau et al., 2018) and Rennie’s Mill (Lan, 2006), which have attracted academic interest but remained under-researched in terms of empirical scrutiny, this study:

• •Identify and compare their institutional arrangements by archival research;
• •identify and compare their development outcomes, as measured by census and other official data including mapping and photographic information, supplemented by published oral history of witnesses; and
• •establish and discuss the relationship between the differences in institutional arrangements and development outcomes in terms of a landlord-tenant analogy.

     

Trade Policy,Equipment Investment and Growth in India

The relationship between trade policy and economic performance is one of the oldest controversies in economic development. In this paper, we examine an alternative mechanism through which trade reforms may impact on economic growth to those commonly discussed in the literature. This mechanism builds on the link between equipment investment and growth that has been observed in cross-country data. We argue that that in countries which have had highly restrictive trade policies with respect to capital goods, liberalization measures that specifically target capital goods imports may bring about a fall in the relative price of capital goods, leading to an increase in the rate of investment in equipment. Quantifying the link between trade policy, equipment investment and economic growth in the Indian case, we find strong support for this mechanism.     

175 years of adaptation: North Scandinavian Sámi reindeer herding between government policies and winter climate variability (1835–2010)

Unmanaged wild reindeer populations tend to follow cyclical behaviour, and domesticated reindeer populations often show cyclical behaviour, too. In this contribution, we intend to use the long-term development of two areas in northern Scandinavia to explore how externally imposed policies and winter climate variability have influenced the reindeer herd size and pasture state. We do this by comparing the development in two areas that are rather similar ecologically: Torneträsk in northernmost Sweden and Kautokeino (Vest-Finnmark) in northernmost Norway.Climatic and ecological studies as well as commons theory have been useful tools for understanding the inherent socio-ecological dynamics. Especially the time from 1850 to 1940 includes several short periods when historical sources document combinations of events such as (1) closure of national borders to cross-border herding migrations, (2) relocations of herder households, (3) overutilization of lichen pastures, (4) catastrophic winters, and (5) forced herd reductions. The high number of incidents and actions during this era makes it challenging to disentangle causes and effects.Our main findings are based on the documented effects of international events and consequent government policies and actions in Fennoscandia from 1852 to 1921 which had dramatic consequences, including excessive numbers of reindeer and people in northernmost Sweden, leading to more or less forced relocation southwards in Sweden with cascading effects in large parts of Sápmi. We have found clear indications that this contributed to overutilization of lichen pastures and beyond any reasonable doubt must also have reinforced the effects of several of the documented catastrophic climatic events, especially in areas like Torneträsk to where many families from Finnmark were relocated. From the first border closure in 1852 to the Second World War it thus seems as if the shocks from the political events were the main factor determining the development of reindeer herding in large parts of Sápmi. The political and administrative history is well documented. Our climate data are a unique compilation of climate events based on multiple sources during two centuries, which contribute to the validity of our findings. Our pasture state data from the late-1800s are also based on several sources which support each other.Two new factors influencing the general cyclical pattern have arisen more recently. Motorization has increased the possibilities for intense pasture utilization and the amplitudes between minimum and maximum herd sizes, while supplementary feeding has the potential to limit the effects of winter climate variability and lichen overutilization.     

Promoting GHG mitigation policies for agriculture and forestry: A case study in Guadeloupe,French West Indies

Climate change is now accepted as self-evident. It is time to find new production methods, set up new organizations and introduce new policies and new incentives to enable our economies and societies to face this issue. Innovation is required at all levels, from farming practices to government policy. Agricultural and forestry systems are strongly linked to their local environment and are often interdependent (economically, socially, etc.). This paper discusses how a landscape scale approach can help to mitigate climate change in forestry and agriculture. It describes the French Climagri^® approach, which is based on a GHG inventory and scenario analysis at sub-national scale in order to promote innovation. It discusses the strengths (transversal approach, GHG hot spot identification, impact of non-climate policies) and weaknesses (data collection, uncertainties, incentives) of such an approach based on a case study in Guadeloupe. This paper suggests ideas for tools to help in drawing up new efficient GHG policies and helps to explain landscape scale GHG inventories and data interpretation in a tropical context.     

Land reuse in support of renewable energy development

Renewable Portfolio Standards are U.S. state-level policies that encourage renewable energy development to meet a proportion of electricity demand. These policies, along with state and federal incentives and private sector demand, have motivated interest in renewable energy capacity, which is a function of available land. As global climate change has been driven by the combination of fossil fuel combustion and land cover change, renewable energy development is best achieved through sustainable land use practices. One option is to site renewable energy installations on land that has been contaminated or degraded. This analysis looks at the degree to which renewable energy demand created by state renewable portfolio standards in the United States could be met by contaminated or formerly contaminated sites. Results suggest that land resources are more than sufficient to meet current and possibly future RPS-generated demand in three out of four regions.     

The Influence of Commodity Programs on Acreage Response to Market Price: With an Illustration Concerning Rice Policy in the United States

Farm programs influence the parameters of typically estimated supply functions. We develop and apply an approach that uses detailed information about farm program incentives and constraints to identify underlying structural acreage response parameters when the data reflect behavior under complex government commodity programs. We illustrate the approach with data on rice acreage response to market price in the United States. For U.S. rice, estimates that fail to appropriately incorporate the program rules under which market data were generated are three to four times smaller than the structural parameters that are useful for most policy analysis or projections under alternative policies.     

The implementation and the future of development plans

Summary

Once again the planning system of England and Wales is being reviewed. This paper considers criticisms of development plans, and proposals for changes, including those of the Department of the Environment (DoE) and Welsh Office in the consultation paper, "The Future of Development Plans: a Consultation Paper”, September 1986, with some of the reactions to it, and also The Nuffield Foundation report, "Town and Country Planning”, 1986. A focus of this critique is the effectiveness of development plans, in particular regarding the questions of implementation and resources. It is concluded that it is the co‐ordination of the provision of public resources, which are needed to implement plans and policies, that requires the attention of the Government, with adequate national and regional planning guidelines, rather than the abolition of Structure Plans.     

EFFECTS OF MINERAL DEVELOPMENT ON THE ECONOMY*

R. G. Gregory's article on the effects of mineral discoveries on the Australian economy (Australian Journal of Agricultural Economics, August 1976) has attracted much attention. While the partial-equilibrium nature of his model has enabled it to be absorbed readily, it has the usual theoretical limitations of such analyses. Allowing for general equilibrium repercussions, but still accepting his general assumptions, some of Gregory's conclusions regarding the impact of new mineral discoveries require modification or extension:

• (a) Although production of goods other than minerals can be expected to decline, the production of some goods in this category may rise;
• (b) A social gain is still possible even if outputs of other goods do not change;
• (c) While the price of non-tradeable goods can be expected to rise, production of non-tradeables may increase or decrease.

We also show the magnified effect of mineral discoveries on the rents of factors specific to minerals, and the squeeze exerted on the rents of factors specific to other tradeables.     

湖北省耕地动态变化及其驱动机制分析

本文利用湖北省1952-2003年的统计和普查数据，分析探讨了湖北省50年来耕地数量动态变化及区域差异，并在此基础上应用主成分分析法，分析了影响耕地数量动态变化的驱动机制。结果表明：湖北省耕地数量总体呈下降趟势，耕地变化的区域差异显著，影响耕地动态变化的主要驱动因素为：经济驱动、人口驱动、政策和农业产业结构调整等。     

Prospects for U.S. Rice in Japanese Retail Markets Under COOL: A Sensory Experiment

ABSTRACT

Japanese policies leave its retail market closed to U.S. rice. This study examined prospects of U.S. rice if these markets opened, with required country-of-origin labeling (COOL). Data were from auction experiments examining preferences for U.S. and Japanese rice under two scenarios (COOL with observation and COOL with tasting) using Japanese female primary shoppers. Two segments were identified: those open to U.S. rice at prices equal or above domestic, as likely due to tariffs, and those closed to U.S. rice at any price. About 7% of subjects were in the first segment, while nearly 26% fell in the latter. Tasting failed to generate large changes. Frequent COOL readers were especially closed even after tasting. Tasting did change the profile of open consumers, with demographics mattering less afterward. Under any policy change, U.S. rice would need a discounted price relative to domestic rice; even then, a substantial market segment appears closed.     

UK Land Use Futures: Policy influence and challenges for the coming decades

This paper, originally contributed as part of the government's Foresight investigation of Land Use Futures, considers the likely shape of policies affecting UK rural land use up to 2060, based on literature review, analysis of past and current trends and drivers, and discussion with selected policy experts. The postwar, centralised approach to spatial planning and countryside management has come under increasing challenge from domestic and international needs and concerns. European policy influence has increased in respect of agriculture and the natural environment. Zoning of land-use and a restrictive approach to built development have gradually weakened, and land-use drivers have become more multifunctional. Policy has moved away from a ‘top-down’ process designed in Whitehall towards a multi-layered structure within which international agreements and negotiations must be reconciled with regional and local, partnership-based approaches to planning and management, via national frameworks and a complex mix of regulatory and market-based instruments. Climate and energy policy, as well as policies on food and health, will require new and more diverse forms of development. A major challenge for the future could be the extent to which current, multi-layered spatial planning policies can accommodate the scale of change implied by the new mix of drivers from other policy areas. There is the possibility of an increasingly differentiated response across the UK countryside, as well as much more radical change in the system driven from the centre, as pressures increase.

While the Government Office for Science commissioned this review, the views are those of the author, are independent of Government, and do not constitute Government policy.     

Sharing property value losses: The spatial concentration of development rights as a way to limit urban sprawl

The examination of the literature on land value capturing and compensation shows that strategies based on the sharing of value losses deserve increased attention. This topic is relevant also with regards to the Swiss context of the study: following the entry into force of more stringent antisprawl provisions at the federal level, numerous peripheral municipalities must reduce the size of the designated building zones and withdraw development rights from landowners. Two municipal cases are presented: the first illustrates the difficulties currently faced by Swiss municipal authorities; the second shows a possible way of dealing with these difficulties. In this second case, a specific instrument that allows for the sharing of property value losses was implemented in the past. This instrument, which we will call the spatial concentration of development rights, is analyzed along with the conditions that made possible its successful implementation. The political and technical transferability of this instrument outside its original context is also addressed. The results show that the sharing of property value losses helps to deal with equity issues while being less demanding in terms of institutional change compared to the creation of a TDR system in Switzerland. Thus, the sharing of property value losses deserves being discussed as a suitable approach while implementing antisprawl policies in peripheral areas.     

The linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices: a panel SVAR analysis

The major expansion of U.S. ethanol production raises concerns about the potential detrimental impacts on developing countries’ agricultural prices, farm income, and food security. To assess the sensitivity of maize prices to ethanol production, this study explores the linkage between the U.S. ethanol market and developing countries’ maize prices. The econometric approach, based on a panel structural vector autoregression model, captures market interdependencies and the likelihood that developing countries’ responses are both heterogeneous and dynamic. The results indicate that the U.S. ethanol market's impacts on maize prices in developing countries are heterogeneous and that coastal countries are more susceptible to U.S. economic shocks. The estimates also suggest that countries more dependent on food imports and/or receiving U.S. food aid are at a higher risk of being affected by such shocks. Overall, the results indicate that those countries with the greatest sensitivity and exposure to global agricultural commodity markets could benefit from domestic policies and international assistance, which reduce their exposure to impacts from the U.S. maize market.     

Structural Change and its Impact on Traditional Agricultural Sectors of Rapidly Developing Countries: The Case of Natural Rubber

Rapid structural change is now a major feature of several Southeast Asian economies. It generally involves greatly expanded exports of certain commodities and manufactures accompanied by a large growth in services, and poses serious difficulties for traditional labour-intensive sectors. One important sector affected in this way is that producing natural rubber in Malaysia, Indonesia and Thailand. The difficulties mentioned occur through both “resource pull” effects - which are especially important in raising real wages, and “spending” effects - which tend to lead to an appreciation of the real exchange rate. These effects, and the problems arising from them, are examined and compared for each of the rubber sectors above. While changes of this nature call for diminution in the size of traditional sectors, there is also a need to improve economic efficiency, notably by adopting new technology more appropriate to the emerging resource price configuration, and by moving to an agriculture where off-farm employment and other linkages are increasingly significant. Such adjustment may be both helped and constrained by institutional factors and official policies, which accordingly require careful review. These crucial policy issues, and the degree to which necessary adjustments have been made, are investigated for the rather different contexts in each of the three natural rubber-producing countries. The analysis is thought to have wider relevance for other developing countries with traditional agricultural sectors.     

Taking account of governance: The challenge for land-use planning models

It is widely recognised that weak governance is a major constraint in planning for sustainable development, especially in the South. Sophisticated models that have been developed for assessing the likely effect of selected policies on land-use, and on sustainable development more generally, increasingly acknowledge this; but they do not include methods for taking this into account, in quantitative terms – which is what is necessary if such models are to be applied in practice. This paper begins by identifying the limitations of standard models in this respect, and then suggests a possible way to respond to the problem. We propose the use of what we call ‘policy-specific governance indicators’, that is, indicators not of general government performance across the board, but rather of the actual performance of particular policies – or, if necessary, suitable proxies derived from similar policies. By reference to a case study from Brazil concerning controls on deforestation, we show how this can be done in practice, and built in to the planning model. And by reference to studies from Indonesia and India we explore how one might address still more challenging cases that may arise.