我国金融政策与居民可支配收入的协整分析

有效的金融政策,可以促进经济发展,经济发展又为居民收入提供了物质基础和投资环境。本文利用1985～2007年时间序列数据,根据协整理论,借助误差修正模型,研究了我国金融政策与居民可支配收入之间的关系。结果表明,金融资产的增加对居民可支配收入不仅存在长期效应,而且有短期影响;银行利率的变动对居民可支配收入的影响,存在滞后效应。因此,金融政策对我国居民可支配收入有一定的调节作用,适时出台的金融政策,能能有效地调节我国居民可支配收入的变动。     

The Role of the Common Agricultural Policy in Enhancing Farm Income: A Dynamic Panel Analysis Accounting for Farm Size in Italy

As a multi-objective policy, the EU Common Agricultural Policy continues to secure significant income support for farmers as one of the nine specific objectives. We estimate the income transfer efficiency of a broad set of pivotal policy measures, focusing on the effects of farm structure on income transfer efficiency. We use dynamic modelling, based on a micro-data panel of Italian farms for the period 2008–2014, allowing for endogeneity, simultaneity bias, and omitted variables. In line with previous studies and economic expectations, we find that decoupled direct payments provide the highest contribution to agricultural incomes, followed by agri-environmental payments and on-farm investment subsidies. Coupled payments have no significant impacts on farmers’ income. Generally, for all analysed Common Agricultural Policy measures, large farms benefit from greater transfer efficiency levels compared with medium and small farms. These differences among instruments and across farms suggest that policy-participation costs may play a pivotal role, together with the economic structure of farms, in determining the income transfer efficiency of CAP policies.     

统筹城乡发展促进农民增收

文章在首先描述了农民收入增长缓慢的现状及其影响的基础上，提出了解决五个方面问题以促进农民增收的建议。     

Alternative Policy Instruments for Agriculture Support: Consequences for Trade, Farm Income and Competitiveness

The views expressed are solely those of the authors and should not be attributed to the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development or Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada.     

Contemporary Farm Income Support Policy in Canada: The Case of Prairie Agriculture since 1996

This paper investigates the degree of provincialism, autonomous policy formulation and program implementation, in farm income support in Manitoba, Saskatchewan, and Alberta after 1995. It finds that of the three prairie provinces only Alberta undertook autonomous program creation. Correspondingly, Alberta bargained for provincial discretion in federal–provincial negotiations, while Manitoba and Saskatchewan insisted that the federal government is to assume primary responsibility for farm income support. The direction that each province took in regards to program implementation and in federal–provincial negotiations stemmed to a considerable extent from the policy‐making structures the provinces created in order to engage their farm communities in policy development. In Alberta additional factors were the strong influence of rural representatives in its government and its rich public purse. In Manitoba and Saskatchewan the comparatively small government budgets and the governments' desire not to run large budget deficits were other relevant factors. Le présent article examine le degré de provincialisme, l'élaboration de politiques et la mise en place de programmes autonomes ainsi que le soutien du revenu agricole au Manitoba, en Saskatchewan et en Alberta depuis 1995. Nos résultats ont indiqué que, des trois provinces des Prairies, seule l'Alberta a procédéà la création de programmes autonomes. L'Alberta a demandé un pouvoir discrétionnaire dans les négociations fédérales‐provinciales, tandis que le Manitoba et la Saskatchewan ont insisté pour que le gouvernement fédéral assume la responsabilité principale du soutien du revenu agricole. L'orientation des provinces concernant la mise en place de programmes et les négociations fédérales‐provinciales provenait, en très grande partie, des structures d'élaboration des politiques qu'elles ont mises en place en vue de favoriser la participation de leurs collectivités agricoles au processus d'élaboration des politiques. En Alberta, la forte influence des représentants des collectivités rurales au sein du gouvernement et l'importance des fonds publics ont constitué d'autres facteurs. Au Manitoba et en Saskatchewan, des budgets gouvernementaux restreints et le souhait de ne pas enregistrer de déficits budgétaires importants ont constitué d'autres facteurs pertinents.     

A Market-Forces Policy for the New Farm Economy?

This paper first discusses the changes that are bringing about the New Farm Economy. A wave of consolidation has shifted agricultural production to larger, lower cost producers in almost all sectors of agriculture. At the same time, supply chains represent a new form of ownership and control that is replacing commodity markets as the preferred way to market farm output. Both consolidation and the development of supply chains offer the possibility of producing a greater variety of safer, cheaper food. The paper argues that farm policy, crafted for the agriculture of the 1930s, is no longer necessary to raise or stabilize farm incomes, and is largely ineffective anyway. Moreover, farm policy impedes the market forces driving innovation and efficiency in the farm economy. Letting market forces guide the evolution of the farm economy, unfettered by outdated government programs and unnecessary farm subsidies, is the best way to harness the benefits of the New Farm Economy. Getting rid of government subsidies and control will lead to dramatically fewer farmers in agriculture: a policy to deal explicitly with those who will leave agriculture is needed. A transition policy is described that focuses on helping reduce the number of farmers by offering a buyout to farm producers which subsidizes their exit from farming and prevents reentry.     

天然橡胶产业发展政策分析:红线与红利

在介绍天然橡胶的产业和价格波动的基础上,从天然橡胶产业“红线”与“红利”的视角出发,解读了天然橡胶政策“红线”不能保障战略资源安全和天然橡胶市场“红利”不能保障农户生计发展。最后,提出了争取天然橡胶国际定价权,通过股权运作等方式控制产量和交易成本等;设定合理天然橡胶“红线”,以进口依赖度、胶园开割率和单产等指标确定中国天然橡胶“红线”为110万hm 2;释放双向天然橡胶“红利”,在宜胶区实施“价格支持”政策,在非宜胶区实施“退胶还林”政策等建议。     

休闲农业开发模式选择及农户增收效益比较

本文从休闲农业及农民收入的现状出发,总结分析了目前农户参与休闲农业开发的两种主要类型:“直接主体模式”和“间接主体模式”。并从具体开发形式及农民利益的实现等方面进行了对比,认为应将“间接主体模式”作为休闲农业开发的长期战略选择。     

中国农民持久收入与消费的协整分析

持久收入假说是弗里德曼提出的著名假说，它是否适应中国的实际是一个值得研究的问题。本文从持久收入计算方法的探讨入手，分析了估算方法的科学性、合理性。以此为基础，通过协整分析验证了消费与持久收入之间的长期均衡和短期动态关系。实证结果表明，持久收入是影响中国农民消费的重要因素。     

A Regional Analysis Of The Supply And Demand Of Farm Labor In Canada

This is an aggregative study covering the years 1946 to 1962, with the primary objective of examining the most significant factors which affect a market structure for farm labor. A recursive system is used to derive an equilibrium level of both hired and family farm labor during the period studied as well as an equilibrium level of future farm labor requirement by 1970 .
The findings show that the demand for farm labor was apparently not, or weakly, responsive to the farm wage rate in all regions and it was weakly responsive to the parity ratio, farm machinery and productivity. On the supply side, farm labor also was not, or weakly, responsive to the variables included in all regions with the exception of the farm wage rate or parity ratio in B.C. and the adjusted non-farm wage rate and farm machinery in the Atlantic region. The results also show that, in Canada as a whole, the projected family labor employment will be 294,000 manequivalents by 1910 or 42 percent decline as compared to the 1962 level, while the projected hired labor employment will be 114,000 manequivalents in 1970 or 14 percent increase in the eight years after 1962. This would likely be the tendency because of the continuous economic development on the one hand and the consolidation of farms on the other .     

创新农村公共政策构建农民增收长效机制

本文认为，要实现农民收入的持续增加、真正构建起增收的长效机制。就必须变革并创新既存的农村公共政策。为此，笔者系统剖析并逐一探讨了我国建立农民增收长效机制的若干政策性制约因素，并提出了相应的创新思路。     

干旱山区农业产业结构调整探析

从干旱山区农业农村特点出发,阐述了农业产业结构调整的要求、原则,提出了调整方案、实施方案,以及市场带动、以销促调;大力推进农业科技进步;加大政策扶持力度;继续推进产业化经营;合理规划等具体措施。     

A New U.S. Farm Household Typology: Implications for Agricultural Policy

Changes in U.S. agriculture have yielded a diversity of farm types. These changes have extended beyond the farm business and into the farm household. The objective of this research is to motivate, develop, and discuss the policy implications of a new typology of U.S. farm households, which is based on household economic theory. Using the 2003 Agricultural Resource Management Survey and statistical analysis, the U.S. Farm Household Typology identifies six mutually exclusive groups of U.S. farm households. This typology is then compared to the current Economic Research Service Farm Typology and used to investigate the distribution of government payments.     

农业综合开发支持农业结构调整的思路和政策思考

我国农业发展已经进入了一个新的发展阶段。新阶段农业结构调整具有全局性战略意义。这次调整不是一般的适应性调整 ,而是一次具有全局意义的战略性调整。它不仅要解决当前农产品卖难和农民增收困难的问题 ,而且要立足于农业和农村经济的长远发展 ;不仅要着眼于农业和农村自身发展 ,而且要考虑国民经济发展的全局。一、农业综合开发支持农业结构调整的基本思路　　 (一 )农业综合开发作为政府支持和保护农业发展的战略性措施 ,为我国改革开放后第一次农村经济结构调整和农产品结束长期短缺状态做出了重大贡献　农业综合开发 ,是相对于常规农…     

湖北省家庭农庄经营发展的调查及思考

家庭农庄是一种农村微观组织形式,具有经营上的规模化、专业化和较高的经济效益等优势。但受认识程度、政策支持力度、发展环境以及农庄自身的管理等方面的制约,其发展受到了一定的影响。笔者认为应给予家庭农庄合理的地位,为其创造良好的发展与生存环境,加快土地制度改革,推进家庭农庄组织的创新与发展。     

发达国家发展低碳经济对我国的借鉴

随着全球气候变化,低碳经济受到世界各国重视。我国对发展"低碳经济"一直持积极态度,并已取得可喜成绩。英、德、日、美等发达国家低碳经济和技术发展给我们的启示是,中国实现低碳经济可持续发展应从加强宣传、完善法律体系、建立市场机制、大力推进能源结构多元化、加强国际合作等方面着手。