基于选择实验法的巢湖水资源非市场价值研究

选择实验法是当前国内外用于分析资源环境价值的前沿方法,可以用来估算居民心中公共物品的经济价值。目前我国少有学者将该方法应用于湖泊水资源价值评估。论文尝试将选择实验法引入湖泊水资源非市场价值评估中,以安徽巢湖为例展开实证研究,建立多项对数模型(Multinomial Logit)和混合对数模型(Mixed Logit)对巢湖水资源非市场价值进行测算。主要研究结果表明:1城镇居民的支付意愿普遍高于农村居民;2三个属性中,城乡居民对湖泊自然景观的关注度最高,其次是长江水引入量,最后是水体富营养化;3基于多项对数模型估测未来10年巢湖水资源非市场价值约为60.74亿元/年,其中城镇居民年均支付意愿为160.8元/户,农村居民年均支付意愿为9.9元/户;而基于混合对数模型估测未来10年巢湖水资源非市场价值约为44.66亿元/年,城镇居民年均支付意愿为111.75元/户,农村居民年均支付意愿为21.77元/户。     

条件价值评估法对伊金霍洛旗生态系统服务价值的评估应用

通过调查伊金霍洛旗的生态环境状况,以非市场物品和服务价值评估的理论条件价值评估法为依据,采用支付卡方法对伊金霍洛旗农户关于恢复生态系统服务价值的支付意愿进行了调查分析,同时对影响居民支付意愿的影响因素进行了相关分析。结果表明:87%的农户家庭对伊金霍洛旗生态环境恢复存在支付意愿,最大支付意愿为每户每年204.54元。其中家庭收入、是否为村干部、文化程度这三个变量与支付意愿之间存在着显著的线性相关关系。     

基于居民生活满意度的城市景观经济价值评价——以大连市为例

基于大连市的调研数据,利用生活满意度数据,探索了城市景观质量对居民效用的影响,进而使用有序Probit模型测算城市景观的经济价值。结果表明:城市景观质量对居民的生活满意度具有显著的正向影响;以十分制定位景观评价标准,每年每户居民对单位城市景观质量改善的意愿支付为26282元;相对于低收入群体,较高收入群体对城市景观质量的变化更为敏感;当城市景观质量实现由Ⅰ级向Ⅱ级的改善时,居民的支付意愿最强,可达到96807元;随着城市景观质量等级的升高,家庭的边际支付意愿明显下降,反映出处在较低质量景观状态中的居民具有更强烈的景观改善意愿。     

农户对资源性农业废弃物经济价值的认知及支付意愿研究

使用条件价值评估法,在山东、湖北、山西3个省份对400户农户进行了问卷调查,获得了农户对资源性农业废弃物经济价值的认知程度和支付意愿。研究表明,多数农户能够认识到资源性农业废弃物的经济价值;与商品化相比,农户更愿意通过对自有资源性农业废弃物循环利用来实现其经济价值;农户对不同品种的资源性农业废弃物的支付意愿存在较大差异;总样本对秸秆和畜禽粪便的平均支付意愿分别为每年186元/人、每年310.8元/人,3省秸秆和畜禽粪便的年总经济价值分别为9.38×109元/年、1.54×1010元/年,资源性农业废弃物的经济价值潜力巨大。研究结论将为政府部门相关政策的制定和决策提供参考依据。     

江苏省城市消费者对食品安全支付意愿的实证研究-以低残留青菜为例

本文以江苏省城市消费者为调查对象,通过假想价值评估法,运用Logit回归模型,分析了消费者对食品安全(以低残留青菜为例)的支付意愿及其影响因素。研究结果表明,消费者对低残留青菜中食品安全的平均支付意愿达到了2.68元/斤,其价格溢出为335%。其中,大城市南京的消费者对食品安全的支付意愿为2.42元/斤,中小城市扬州的消费者的支付意愿为2.77元/斤。此外,本文还就影响消费者支付意愿的主要因素进行分析。     

流域生态补偿的支付意愿及影响因素——以南水北调中线工程受水区郑州市为例

基于支付卡式(PC)条件价值法(CVM)对南水北调中线工程受水区郑州市进行问卷调查,利用Tobit模型考察了受水区居民使用南水北调中线工程水源区水质和水量生态服务的支付意愿(WTP)。结果表明:在302个有效样本中,受水区居民具有正支付意愿的比例为84.44%,其中89.8%的居民支付意愿值为10元/月及以下。根据两类WTP评估方法得出的郑州市居民支付意愿为5~8.09元/月。居民异质性是支付意愿的重要影响因素,收入水平、教育水平、年龄和偏好的影响显著;从居民对水源产权的认知看,受访者默认拥有清洁水源使用权,支付意愿决策具有较强的自利动机;从居民支付意愿决策背景看,水量和水质变化影响了居民的效用水平,从而改变了居民参与流域生态补偿的支付意愿。应建立生态服务使用方直接参与的流域生态补偿机制,根据受水区居民真实支付意愿对水源区进行生态补偿。     

江苏省城市消费者对食品安全支付意愿的实证研究-以低残留青菜为例

该文以江苏省城市消费者为调查对象,通过假想价值评估法,运用LOGIT回归模型,分析了消费者对食品安全(以低残留青菜为例)的支付意愿及其影响因素.研究结果表明,消费者对低残留青菜中食品安全的平均支付意愿达到了2.68元/斤,其价格溢出为335%.其中,大城市南京的消费者对食品安全的支付意愿为2.42元/斤,中小城市扬州的消费者的支付意愿为2.77元/斤.此外,该文还就影响消费者支付意愿的主要因素进行分析.     

北京市空气污染健康损失的支付意愿研究

条件价值评估方法是一种很有应用前景的对公共物品总价值进行评估的方法,在发达国家公共决策中发挥了重要作用。本研究采用条件价值评估方法调查北京市居民对改善空气质量提高健康水平的支付意愿为652.327元/年。统计分析影响居民支付意愿的社会经济因素的结果表明,支付意愿受家庭经济水平和受教育程度影响最大,随着家庭经济水平和居民受教育程度的提高而增加。     

公益林生态效益价值居民支付意愿实证分析——以贵阳市为例

以贵阳市公益林为研究对象,采用条件价值评估法（CVM）,通过设计问卷、调查实施,对贵阳市居民公益林补偿的支付意愿（WTP）及影响因素进行了分析。结果显示：（1）73.6%贵阳市居民家庭对公益林生态效益价值有支付意愿,平均意愿支付额为每户家庭每年人民币213.96元;（2）支付意愿受社会经济因素综合影响,其中年龄、收入水平及环境关注态度对支付意愿具有显著影响,是影响支付意愿的主要因素。在对居民支付意愿影响因素进行分析的基础上,提出了一些建议性政策。     

内蒙古草原生态补偿意愿的实证研究

草原生态补偿意愿是确定草原生态补偿标准的重要参考,理论上补偿意愿包括补偿主体的支付意愿和补偿对象的受偿意愿。利用条件价值评估法(CVM)研究补偿主体的支付意愿和补偿对象的受偿意愿。通过采用SPSS软件中的皮尔逊相关分析法得出如下结论:内蒙古地区居民对草原生态补偿的支付意愿是23.10元/hm2.年;内蒙古草原牧区牧民的受偿意愿是1 944.75/hm2.年。影响支付意愿的因素主要是被访者的受教育程度(即学历水平)、对草原生态环境的认知程度和家庭人口;影响受偿意愿的因素主要是牲畜饲养方式和牧民居住地距离旗政府所在地的距离。     

Use of Contingent Valuation to Elicit Willingness-to-Pay for the Benefits of Developmental Health Risk Reductions

We report the results of several contingent valuation (CV) surveys to elicit willingness-to-pay values from the general public for risk reductions associated with decreases in exposure to a chemical, PCBs, in the environment. We also develop Quality Adjusted Life Years (QALYs) from the survey using both standard gamble and time-tradeoff elicitation methods to explore the relationship between QALYs and willingness-to-pay (WTP), and to develop QALY weights for subtle developmental effects. The results of the CV surveys are designed for incorporation into a case study of an integrated risk model to monetize the benefits of predicted risk reductions. Respondents showed a nearly proportional, positive relationship between decreasing the risk of a 6-point reduction in IQ (a standard measure of “intelligence”) and WTP, but showed a negative relationship between risk reduction and WTP for reading comprehension as an outcome. The range of mortality risks that respondents would accept on behalf of their (hypothetical) 10-year-old child is 2 in 10,000 to 9 in 1,000 per IQ point, and WTP per IQ point is $466 ($380, $520). QALY weights elicited via time tradeoff (reduction in life expectancy) were significantly different from QALY weights elicited via a standard gamble (p = 0.001). Respondents who answered questions about ecological endpoints first were willing to pay a small additional amount when asked about human health effects, but those respondents who answered questions about human health endpoints first were not willing to pay any additional amount when subsequently asked about ecological effects. This paper has not been submitted elsewhere in identical or similar form, nor will it be during the first three months after its submission to the Publisher.     

Contingent valuation of inhaled insulin: a Canadian perspective

Summary

The objective of this study was to assess the preference and willingness-to-pay (WTP) for inhaled insulin from a random sample of general public perspective in Ontario, Canada. This was carried out using a mail survey using the contingent valuation method. Significantly more respondents preferred inhaled insulin (n=114) over subcutaneous insulin (n=6; p<0.001). The mean monthly WTP for inhaled insulin was CAN$68.59 ± 44.65 (95% confidence interval CAN$58.87–78.07), significantly more than the average subcutaneous insulin cost in Ontario of CAN$50. The WTP for inhaled insulin in the diabetic subgroup was CAN$98.52 ± 48.57, which is significantly higher than that of the general public (p<0.001). Multiple regression analysis showed a strong association between respondents’ income and diagnosis of diabetes and their WTP for inhaled insulin (p<0.001). Major influencing factors were convenience and household budget. The results of this study suggest that the general public in Ontario prefer inhaled insulin and are willing to pay significantly more per month than the current cost of subcutaneous insulin.     

Evaluating the Validity of the Dichotomous Choice Question Format in Contingent Valuation

Hypothetical and actual cash willingness to pay (WTP) for an art print were elicited with dichotomous choice and open-ended question formats. Comparing hypothetical and actual dichotomous choice responses using both a likelihood ratio test and the method of convolutions suggests we reject equality at the 0.05 but not the 0.01 level. Hypothetical WTP was roughly two times actual WTP with the dichotomous choice format. There were no significant differences between the open-ended and dichotomous choice question formats when both were used to estimate hypothetical WTP or both used to estimate actual WTP.     

The Effect of Risk Characteristics on the Willingness to Pay for Mortality Risk Reductions from Electric Power Generation

The objective of this study is to estimate willingness to pay (WTP) for the reduction of mortality risks caused by fossil fuel (natural gas, coal and oil) versus nuclear electric power generation systems and to examine the influence of risk characteristics involved with electric power generation on WTP. A choice experiment was conducted to achieve these objectives. The attributes for nuclear risks in the experiment included the probability of disasters and the expected losses if a disaster occurs. We find evidence of (i) a baseline effect (where WTP is sensitive to hypothetical versus actual baseline expected mortality); (ii) a ‘labeling effect,’ where, surprisingly, the term ‘nuclear’ has no effect on WTP, but the term ‘fossil-fueled power generation’ results in lower WTP; and (iii) disaster aversion, meaning that people focus on the conditional loss from a nuclear disaster, not the probability. We also find that the WTP for reducing deaths from a nuclear disaster is about 60 times the WTP for routine reducing fossil-fuel generation-related deaths.     

Past and present outage costs – A follow-up study of households’ willingness to pay to avoid power outages

Households’ demand for electricity continues to increase. This trend per se should indicate increased disutility from power outages. Additionally, batteries and other back-up systems have been improved, and the frequency and duration of outages have been reduced in many countries. By comparing the results from two stated preference studies on Swedish households’ willingness to pay (WTP) to avoid power outages in 2004 and 2017, we investigate whether the WTP has changed. The WTP is assessed for power outages of 1- and 4 -h durations, and whether it is planned or unplanned. We find three main differences: (i) the proportion of households stating zero WTP to avoid power outages decreased significantly from 2004 to 2017, meaning that more households are willing to pay to avoid a power outage in 2017 than in 2004; (ii) the overall WTP was considerably higher in 2017 than in 2004, but (iii) the conditional WTP, that is, WTP for those that have a positive WTP for an outage, has decreased. These results have implications for how regulators incentivize and regulate electricity suppliers, because the results suggest that a reliable supply of electricity is of greater importance now than what the literature has suggested.     

干旱指数保险支付意愿研究——基于湖北省孝感市的实证分析

本文以湖北省孝感市273个农户的调查数据为依据,通过Logistic模型对农户干旱指数保险支付意愿的影响因素进行了实证分析。研究表明：被调查农户农业干旱保险意愿不强,其中72.5%的农户没有支付意愿;有支付意愿的农户愿意支付的保险费也相当低,平均只有每亩12元。基于此,本文为该地区农业干旱指数保险的发展提供相关政策建议：加大对农村的人力资本投资;增加农民收入,提高支付能力;加强农业干旱指数保险的宣传教育工作;探讨合理的农业保险补贴方式和标准;加强天气指数保险研究力度,积极推进天气指数保险试点工作。     

Asking for Individual or Household Willingness to Pay for Environmental Goods?

The aggregate welfare measure for a change in the provision of a public good derived from a contingent valuation (CV) survey will be higher if the same elicited mean willingness to pay (WTP) is added up over individuals rather than households. A trivial fact, however, once respondents are part of multi-person households, it becomes almost impossible to elicit an “uncontaminated” WTP measure that with some degree of confidence can be aggregated over one or the other response unit. The literature is mostly silent about which response unit to use in WTP questions, and in some CV studies it is even unclear which type has actually been applied. We test for differences between individual and household WTP in a novel, web-administered, split-sample CV survey asking WTP for preserving biodiversity in old-growth forests in Norway. Two samples are asked both types of questions, but in reverse order, followed by a question with an item battery trying to reveal why WTP may differ. We find in a test between samples that the WTP respondents state on behalf of their households is not significantly different from their individual WTP. However, within the same sample, household WTP is significantly higher than individual WTP; in particular if respondents are asked to state individual before household WTP. Our results suggest that using individual WTP as the response unit may overestimate aggregate WTP. Thus, the choice of response format needs to be explicitly and carefully addressed in CV questionnaire design and further research in order to avoid the risk of unprofitable projects passing the benefit-cost test.

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The Economic Value of Air-Pollution-Related Health Risks in China: A Contingent Valuation Study

The economic value of preventing adverse health effects related to air pollution is estimated using contingent valuation in three diverse locations in China. Values are estimated for three health endpoints: cold, chronic bronchitis, and fatality. Alternative statistical models are tested to study their impact on estimated willingness to pay (WTP) and on the relationship between WTP and respondent characteristics. Using the official exchange rate, the sample-average median WTP to prevent an episode of cold ranges between US$3 and US$6, the WTP to prevent a statistical case of chronic bronchitis ranges between US$500 and US$1,000, and the value per statistical life ranges between US$4,000 and US$17,000. Estimated mean values are between two and thirteen times larger. Our estimates are between about 10 and 1,000 times smaller than estimates for the US and Taiwan using official exchange rates. Indoor air quality, measured for a subset of respondents, shows no consistent relationship with WTP.     

人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口的影响:1994—2003

Marshall Lerner(ML)条件成立与否,是一国制定汇率政策的重要依据。在人民币面临巨大升值压力时,重新对ML条件进行检验对于我国货币当局制定汇率政策有重要的指导意义。本文运用协整向量自回归(cointegratingVAR)的分析方法,对1 994—2 0 0 3年人民币对世界主要货币的加权实际汇率波动与我国进出口之间的长期关系进行了实证检验。结果表明,人民币实际汇率波动对我国进出口存在着显著的影响,ML条件成立;人民币实际汇率波动对进出口的影响存在J曲线效应。