Sunspots and self-fulfilling beliefs in the U.S. housing market

This paper provides a rational expectations equilibrium framework to organize the following observations about the U.S. housing market from 1975 to 2007: (i) housing occupancy patterns were approximately constant, (ii) rents were stable, and (iii) house prices appreciated considerably in the late 1990s. I develop a model based on search and matching theory and close it by specifying a state of household confidence that is assumed to take one of two sunspot-driven values: normal or exuberant. The model generates a substantial increase in house prices and stable rents as the probability of the exuberant state increases, driven by self-fulfilling beliefs. I explore which aspects of the parameterization are important for generating a large appreciation in house prices in the model.     

The impact of governing structure on the pricing behavior and market structure of public institutions of higher education in the U.S

The governance structure of a state university system is the relationship between the individual institutions and the governing board. We hypothesize that the structure will impact both the pricing behavior as well as the market structure of the institutions. The more centralized the governance structure, the more aligned it will be with the interests of the state government. Assuming that the state’s interest is to educate in-state students, those who are most likely to remain in-state therefore generating future tax revenue for the state, institutions with more centralized governance structure are more likely to offer in-state students a lower tuition price relative to out-of-state students. This hypothesis is tested with an OLS model using data from the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES) Integrated Postsecondary Education Data System (IPEDS) for the 1997–1998 academic year. We find that the ratio of out-of-state to in-state tuition is greatest among those institutions with the most centralized governance structures. They engage in the highest level of price discrimination relative to institutions with other types of governance structures. Using the classification of instructional programs, we calculate a weighted average of the percent of duplicate degrees for each type of governance structure. We find that as the governance structure becomes more centralized, the percentage of duplicate degrees in a field decreases across institutions within the same state. This suggests states with a more centralized structure have less homogeneous institutions and educational offerings.     

Current market conditions for veterinary services in the U.S

The veterinary industry has been plagued by low growth in income, yet flourished in growth of new veterinarians. By using a labour-/work-hour approach that allows for proper matching of the data, we develop a supply and demand model of companion animal services in the veterinary medicine profession. We use data from two unique sources that allow demand estimation by companion animal type and lets supply vary by practice type. The results here suggest that low income growth, relative to doctors and dentists, may be from allowing supply to outpace demand for veterinary services.     

Mortgage market credit conditions and U.S. Presidential elections

Voters punish incumbent Presidential candidates for contractions in the county-level supply of mortgage credit during market-wide contractions of credit, but do not reward them for expansions in mortgage credit supply in boom times. Our primary focus is the Presidential election of 2008, which followed an unprecedented swing from very generous mortgage underwriting standards to a severe contraction of mortgage credit. Voters responded to the credit crunch by shifting their support away from the Republican Presidential candidate in 2008. That shift was large and particularly pronounced in states that typically vote Republican, and in swing states. Without it McCain would have received half the votes needed in nine crucial swing states to reverse the outcome of the election. We extend our analysis to the Presidential elections from 1996 to 2012 and find that voters only react to contractions, not expansions, of credit, and reactions are similar for Democratic and Republican incumbent parties.     

An empirical investigation of herding in the U.S. stock market

This paper proposes a new empirical testing method for detecting herding in stock markets. The traditional regression approach is extended to a vector autoregressive framework, in which the predictive power of squared index returns for the cross-sectional dispersion of equity returns is tested using a Granger causality test. Macroeconomic news announcements and the aggregate number of firm-level news items are treated as conditioning variables, while the average sentiment of firm-level news is treated as jointly determined. The testing algorithm allows the change points in the causal relationships between the cross-sectional dispersion of returns and squared index returns to be determined endogenously rather than being chosen arbitrarily a priori. Evidence of herding is detected in the constituent stocks of the Dow Jones Industrial Average at the onset of the subprime mortgage crisis, during the European debt and the U.S. debt-ceiling crises and the Chinese stock market crash of 2015. These results contrast with those obtained from the traditional methods where little evidence of herding is found in the US stock market.     

Emerging market sovereign spreads,global financial conditions and U.S. macroeconomic news

We investigate the impact of global financial conditions, U.S. macroeconomic news and domestic fundamentals on the evolution of EMBI spreads for a panel of 18 emerging market (EM) countries using daily data. To this end, we consider not only the conventional panel cointegration procedures but also the recent common correlated effects method to tackle cross-section dependence that may stem from common global shocks such as contagion. The results suggest that the long-run evolution of EMBI spreads depends on global financial conditions, crises contagion and domestic fundamentals proxied by sovereign ratings. The results from panel equilibrium correction models suggest that EMBI spreads respond substantially also to U.S. macroeconomic news and changes in the Federal Reserve's target interest rates. The magnitude and the sign of the effect of the U.S. news, however, crucially depend on the state of the U.S. economy, such as the presence of inflation dominance.     

美元本位制、美元霸权与美国金融危机

美元本位制下,美元霸权表现为中心一外围框架体系.在该体系下,中心国美国与外围国家的权益和义务不对称,地位不对等,而且框架体系本身具有内在的不相容性,这些特征决定了美元本位制的内在脆弱性,由此也使美国落入美元本位制的陷阱,造成美国国内利率下降、消费信用过度扩张、制造业陷入衰退等经济失衡,最后当信用泡沫破灭时,金融危机爆发.     

Assessing market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry under deregulation

This study attempts to investigate market power in the U.S. commercial banking industry since the U.S. government began to deregulate the banking sector in the early 1990s using the static Bresnahan–Lau model (SBLM) and dynamic Bresnahan–Lau model with error corrections (DBLEC). In particular, panel unit root and panel cointegration techniques are utilized to examine the dynamic model. The empirical results of the SBLM show that the banking industry is highly competitive. The empirical results of DBLEC also suggest that the commercial banking industry is close to being perfectly competitive in the short run. By contrast, the adjustment speeds of the supply and demand sides towards the long-run equilibrium are quite slow in that market, which implies that the U.S. commercial banks enjoy a certain degree of long-run market power.     

Information technology and economic performance in U.S industries

Abstract .  We study the relationship between information technology (IT) and economic performance, to explore whether IT-capital promotes productivity growth. We use a data set similar to that of previous researchers, but employ non-parametric estimation techniques in order to directly estimate the output elasticities of IT for each industry and time period. We find that IT has a positive effect on productivity, which varies among industries and time. Moreover, adjustment costs are important when identifying this effect. Finally, IT-capital growth appears to be raising income in all industries used in our sample, even those that experienced output reduction.     

Breaks and outliers when modelling the volatility of the U.S. stock market

This study analyses volatility persistence of the U.S. stock market, after taking into account the role of breaks and outliers. By employing a wavelet-based algorithm, it identifies several outliers which are comfortably associated with major events such as the ‘Black Monday’ and the Asian crisis. There is also evidence of clustering of breaks and a substantial variation in the properties of the identified segments.     

美国关于科技资源共享的法律和法规

1966年美国国会通过由总统批准的《信息公开法》,开创了政府信息公开的先河,同时也是立法促进政府数据和信息资源公开、共享的首例。1976年又通过了《政府阳光法案》,由此形成了注重科技资源开放和共享的联邦政府政策体系。同时,实行分类管理科学数据,促进私营部门加入科技资源共享,解决关系国家安全、贸易秘密和隐私权的科研数据问题。     

Exchange rate pass-through in the U.S. market: A cross-country and cross-product investigation

Foreign exporters in general and Japanese exporters in particular have been observed to price to market in the U.S. Are there significant differences in the pricing behavior among exporters from different countries? Is the Japanese export pricing behavior unique? This paper addresses these questions and finds that while there is obvious variation in exchange rate pass-through among products, which relates significantly to the degree of product differentiation, no single exporter to the United States is unique in their pricing behavior.     

Dynamic causality between the U.S. stock market,the Chinese stock market and the global gold market: implications for individual investors’ diversification strategies

This paper proposes a generalization of the prior VAR and EGARCH model to explore the linkage between returns and volatility transmissions in the U.S. stock market, the Chinese stock market, and the global gold market from 10 July 1996 to 20 July 2018. We found that past returns of the U.S. stock market can predict the current returns of the other two markets, and that significant reciprocal volatility transmission existed within and across all three markets. We further implemented average out-of-sample (OOS) forecasting to show that a risk-adjusted portfolio, such as mean-variance with sample estimator, does not outperform an equal-weighted portfolio. This provides insights for individual investors and helps to explain the ongoing disagreement in the portfolio literature concerning the effectiveness of risk-adjusted portfolios and equal-weighted portfolios when the number of assets is small.     

Derivatives holdings and market values of U.S. bank holding companies

We examine the impact of derivatives held by US bank holding companies on their market valuations over the period 2000 to 2010. By using bank-level data with detailed information on the notional amounts of derivative positions according to holding purposes and underlying asset types, our regression analyses provide three main findings. First, derivative instruments held for hedging rather than trading purposes contribute to enhancing market values. Second, the positive effects exhibit nonmonotonic patterns indicating that excessive amounts of derivatives holdings deteriorate market values. Third, interest rate derivatives are the main source of high valuations.     

Economic policy uncertainty and firm investment: evidence from the U.S. market

This paper examines the impact of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level capital investment, by not only delving into the long-term investment-uncertainty relation like previous studies, but also analyzing the short-term investment-uncertainty relation for the U.S. market. The empirical investigations show that firms decrease short-term, long-term, and total firm investments when encountering higher economic policy uncertainties. The research also explores the non-linear investment-uncertainty relation based on various theories. Our findings present a U-shaped relationship between short-term, long-term, and total investments and uncertainties. Policy implications are provided from our empirical results.     

Exchange rate pass-through in the U.S. automobile market: A cointegration approach

This study analyzes exchange rate pass-through in the presence of monopolistic competition in the U.S. automobile market. Using cointegration techniques, we investigate how foreign competing firms' prices interact following an exchange rate-shock. The results generally indicate price interdependence (competition) among the rival firms. In one case where we did not find any price interdependence, the extent of exchange rate pass-through was higher. This validates the economic intuition that a low degree of price competition corresponds with a high degree of exchange rate pass-through.     

美国药品价格政策——促进研发与保障消费之间的权衡取舍

以美国为实例,通过文献研究分析美国药品价格制度及相关配套制度,探讨美国药品价格机制在促进药物研发和保障药品消费两大冲突目标之间协调应变及结果。药品价格政策必然要在促进药物研发和保障本国消费之间进行权衡取合,各国应该根据本国国情选择价格政策。     

The market integration of large and small economies: Australia,the U.S., and Japan

A cross spectral comparison of the major Australian business and inflation cycles with their American and Japanese equivalents indicates a close degree of price integration between Australian and American markets and a strong quantity integration of Australian and Japanese markets. These studies suggest the operation of an international monetary transmission channel linking the Australian and American economies and a foreign trade multiplier channel transmitting Japanese disturbances to the Australian economy. The policy implications of these different forms of market integration are discussed with the emphasis placed on Australian currency exchanges.