Conformism and diversity under social learning

Summary. When there are competing technologies or products with unknown payoffs an important question is which technology will prevail and whether technologies with different payoffs can coexist in the long run. In this paper, we use a social learning model with local interactions to study this question. We show that the adoption of technologies as well as the prospects of conformism/diversity depend crucially on the nature of interaction between individuals and the heterogeneity of preferences in a society. Received: May 10, 1999; revised version: February 4, 2000     

不同类型创新生态系统如何推动核心技术开发与企业销售增长——以中国电子信息技术产业为例

高科技产业技术创新复杂度急剧提升,营造创新生态系统已成为企业保持长期竞争优势的一种重要战略选择。基于知识管理、技术依存结构与网络外部性等视角,利用中国电子信息技术产业上市公司2007-2017年面板数据,探讨相关技术多元化与非相关技术多元化创新生态系统推动核心技术开发、企业销售增长的深层次机理。结果发现：营造相关技术多元化创新生态系统有助于企业打造核心竞争优势,促进核心技术开发,并借此实现企业销售增长;营造非相关技术多元化创新生态系统不仅能够直接促进核心技术开发与企业销售增长,更有助于丰富互补配套产品技术体系,激发间接网络效应,与相关技术多元化创新生态系统形成耦合效应,从而共同促进企业销售增长。     

A consumer-based model of competitive diffusion: the multiplicative effects of global and local network externalities

Competitive diffusion of two incompatible technologies, such as PC vs. Macintosh, VHS vs. Betamax and so on, is studied under the framework of a spatial game in which consumers are distributed on a two-dimensional square lattice network. The consumers play coordination-like games with their nearest neighbors and imitate the most successful strategy in their neighborhood in terms of aggregated payoffs after each round. The effects of global network externality are realized in the dynamic payoff matrix of the game, and the framework of spatial game provides the model with the effects of local network externality. These two types of externalities are set as multiplicative, that is, as nonlinear. Both simulations and mean-field approximation show that not only total but also partial standardization (robust polymorphic equilibrium) occurs depending upon the parameters and initial configurations, even when there are positive effects of both global and local network externalities. Moreover, effects of innovation factors that alter paths toward a lock-in situation are studied. It is shown that both the timing and the size of the innovation factors matter for a disadvantaged technology in order to overwhelm a market.JEL Classification: C7, D8, O3We are obliged to Professor John Paul Boyd at the University of California, Irvine and our anonymous referees for their constructive comments.     

The empirical analysis of the determinants for environmental technological change: A research agenda

Technological change is usually considered a necessary albeit not sufficient condition for a transition to sustainability. However, the empirical analysis of the determinants to environmental technological change has not received too much attention in the environmental/ecological economics literature and many open questions remain in this context. Based on a careful review of the literature, this paper argues that further analysis should address several issues at different levels: i.e., regarding the conceptual framework, the thematic scope of the studies, some methodological issues and other aspects related to the environmental policy variable. First, an integrated conceptual framework which takes into account the interplay between relevant variables influencing environmental technological change (i.e., factors internal and external to the firm and characteristics of the environmental technologies) and all the stages of this process, with a greater emphasis on the invention stage, should be developed. Other aspects should then be tackled, including a focus on several themes (i.e., a greater attention to cross-sectoral technologies, the barriers to different types of environmental technologies, the international dimension of environmental technological change and environmental technological change in small and medium size enterprises), methodological issues (combination of case studies and econometric modelling) and several issues related to the environmental policy variable.     

Lock-in and break-out from technological trajectories: Modeling and policy implications

The prevailing models explaining how technologies develop along a specific trajectory largely focus on the circumstances that lead to technological lock-in. We contribute substantially to this area of research by investigating the circumstances under which technological development may break-out of a trajectory. We argue that for this to happen, a third selection mechanism—beyond those of the market and of technology—needs to upset the lock-in. We model the interaction, or mutual shaping among three selection mechanisms, and thus this paper also allows for a better understanding of when a technology will lock-in into a trajectory, when a technology may break-out of a lock-in, and when competing technologies may co-exist in a balance. As a system is conceptualized to gain a (third) degree of freedom, the possibility of bifurcation is introduced into the model. The equations, in which interactions between competition and selection mechanisms can be modeled, allow one to specify conditions for lock-in, competitive balance, and break-out.     

Managing technology intelligence processes in situations of radical technological change

For established companies, radical technological change is not only a challenge, but it also constitutes a major source of failure. By establishing effective technology intelligence processes, companies may react to radical trends in time which is a prerequisite for coping with technological change. Therefore, this study analyzes the technology intelligence processes in 25 multinational companies in the pharmaceutical, telecommunications equipment and automobile industries in the context of radical technological change. In the three industries, the technologies combinatorial chemistry, dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) and fuel cell are used as settings to analyze these processes on the technology level against the background of the company-level perspective. By applying this complex view, which allows to take into account interactions between different organizational mechanisms and between different hierarchical levels inside a firm, three types of organizing technology intelligence processes can be identified: the participatory, the hybrid and the hierarchical technology intelligence process. The organization of the technology intelligence process according to the three types is influenced by the corporate culture and the decision-making style of the companies. Furthermore, industry differences are identified which may be explained by different rates of radical technological change in the industries. This study suggests that more complex and differentiated views on radical technological change, on corporate technology intelligence processes and on the variety of organizational structures involved in these processes are required.     

Green technological diversification of European ICT firms: a patent-based analysis

ABSTRACT

This paper investigates whether and how diversified firms in the Information and Communication Technology (ICT) sector innovate in green technologies and assess the potential impact of these innovations on firm performance. The analysis relies on a balanced panel dataset of European ICT firms in the period 2009–2013. The results suggest an inverted u-shaped relationship between the extent of technological diversification and the likelihood to develop green technologies. Technological diversification generally increases the likelihood of green innovations, but too high a dispersion of resources across a large variety of different technologies decreases the intensity of green innovations. The results show also that the development of green technologies is positively associated with firm performance: ICT firms involved in green patenting activity perform better than ICT firms with no green patents.     

Assessing market penetration combining scenario analysis, Delphi, and the technological substitution model: The case of the OLED TV market

The technological substitution model, proposed in 1971, was designed to analyze the penetration process of new-generation technologies replacing old ones. It was expanded in 1979 to consider more than two generations and the substitution process among various entities in the market. However, this expanded model is often limited by a relative lack of data on the latest-generation technology.On the other hand, scenario analysis, as another breed to forecasting tool, provides rich and complex portraits of possible future development of technologies. However, it fails to provide quantifiable forecasts. Therefore, previous researchers combined these two methods to analyze the development of new technologies.Nevertheless, to make forecasting more holistic, the current opinions of seasoned experts should also be taken into account. However, because of the often-diverged expert opinions, a method for consensus building, such as the Delphi method, is also necessary. Therefore, we combined the scenario analysis with the Delphi method and the technological substitution model to analyze the development of a new technology, namely, the latest-generation television (TV), or the organic light-emitting diode (OLED) TV. We elaborate three possible scenarios, and forecast the market share of OLED TV and four other TV technologies in the global market over the next 10 years: cathode ray tube, rear projection, plasma display panel, and liquid crystal display.     

Localized technological change and factor markets: constraints and inducements to innovation

The recent advances in the economics of innovation and the analysis of how composition effects influence the introduction of technological change in a global economy, characterized by the variety of production functions in use and different local factor markets, provide new strength to the induced innovation approach. Developing the localized technological change approach, it is argued that because there are irreversibilities, limited knowledge and local learning, the introduction of new technologies is induced by the disequilibrium conditions brought about in each system by all changes in relative factor prices. The direction of technological change in terms of its specific form of bias and how it is introduced and adopted, however, reflects the specific conditions of local factor markets. Well-defined long-term technological paths emerge in each region and they depend on the selection process in product markets. The more rigid and idiosyncratic, the endowment of production factors and the system of relative prices are, the more specific the technological path of each region is likely to be. The divide between the microeconomic and the macroeconomic models of induced technological change is reconciled.     

Analysis of technological progression by quantitative measures: a comparison of two technologies

It is apparent that quantitative information embedded in databases has significant value in analysing technological development. Studies applying different approaches have produced valuable case specific or policy related results by analysing quantitative data. Quantitative measures that would concentrate on monitoring technological progression, not individual organisations or topics, are seldom found. However, quantitative tools for monitoring technological progression would be practical as managers are trying to decide when to exploit new technologies. This paper presents the result of two emerging technologies, focusing on quantitative measures of analysing technological progression that would be objective, reproducible and valid across different technologies. The results from these two technologies help to validate measures that would focus, not on specific research organisations or research topics, but on the maturity of technologies.     

A model of principal-agency control of wastes under technological progress

We analyze performance and outcome of principal-agency relationships in an environment with pollution externalities and technological progress. We assume that firms may not purposely violate the pollution control regulations but nonetheless generate some pollution due to negligence. The models allow firms two possible actions: either to increase the level of treated waste legally or pay an expected penalty if illegal pollution is detected. We show that in a world with pollution externalities, technological progress does not guarantee increases in the welfare level. Most important for policy purposes, the analysis shows the trade-offs between the policy instruments: penalties, taxes/subsidies and treatment costs in a world where technological progress occurs and firms may violate the law.     

On the evolution of technological specialization patterns in emerging countries: comparing Asia and Latin America

This paper explores the role of technological opportunity and cumulativeness in the evolution of technological specialization patterns (TSP) in catching-up processes. Concretely, I assume that opportunity induces mobility while cumulativeness leads to diversification and stability. The empirical analysis uses patent data indicators for nine Asian and Latin American countries between 1978 and 2012. The paper shows that, during economic liberalization (although with different timings), emerging countries caught up and redefined the path of technological accumulation for Asian and Latin American countries. With the exception of Hong Kong, all the countries increased their technology share, but they ran in different directions. Asian countries made greater relative efforts in dynamic technologies, while Latin American countries focused on stagnant technologies. In this sense, Asian countries achieved a more successful performance, building new technological bases and taking a technological leap in some of the more dynamic technologies. Meanwhile, Latin American countries left their technological bases unchanged. The paper also shows that, at the beginning of the catching-up cycle, the TSPs were turbulent. Afterwards, cumulativeness in the technological choice induced the diversification and stabilization of the TSPs.     

Competition,variety and technological evolution: A replicator dynamics model

In this paper a model of technological evolution based on replicator dynamics is developed. Such a model is based on a twin characteristics representation of product technology and on a population approach. The model can give a general representation of technological evolution, but this paper concentrates on the relationship between variety and competition. Variety is considered to be a very important variable influencing economic development. By means of the characteristics and population approach adopted in this paper it is possible to distinguish between inter-and intra-technology competition. In this paper it is demonstrated that the variety of the system can only increase if intra-technology competition is more intense than inter-technology competition. Intuitively this implies that new technologies will only be able to emerge if incumbent technologies experience the competition coming from the new ones to be weaker than their own internal competition.     

Managing technological and social uncertainties of innovation: The evolution of Brazilian energy and agriculture

This paper explores how technological, commercial and social uncertainties shaped the development of Brazilian biofuels. Technological innovation allowed the country to emerge as a global leader, but Brazil continues to struggle with major social uncertainties due to poverty and environmental concerns common in many emerging economies. Contemporary approaches to development within the innovation literature focus primarily on overcoming technological and commercial uncertainties, but only peripherally explore social uncertainties. To fill this void, we draw on Martin and Hall's framework for managing innovative uncertainties, which is based on Kuhn and Popper's approaches to the evolution and methodology of science, and extend it with Aldrich and Fiol's concept of cognitive versus socio-political legitimacy. Based on qualitative data collected in Brazil, we outline the evolution of automotive fuel ethanol and flex-fuel technology, the development of Brazilian soybean production, and castor for socially inclusive biodiesel production. We show how innovation solved some technological and commercial uncertainties and generated new opportunities, but also created additional social uncertainties that are now being addressed. Through this process, Brazil has acquired capabilities in alternative energy technologies and more sustainable agriculture, becoming an exemplar for other emerging economies. We conclude with implications for policy and industry.     

THE REVOLUTION WITHIN: ICT AND THE SHIFTING KNOWLEDGE BASE OF THE WORLD'S LARGEST COMPANIES

This empirical article analyses the importance of information and communications technologies (ICT) in the technological diversification trend among the world's largest manufacturing firms during the 1980s and 1990s. The objective of the research is twofold: first, to emphasise the emerging differences among technologies when companies from different industries patent outside their traditional technological capabilities; secondly, to investigate whether the tendency among large companies from all industries to patent in ICT is distinctive when compared with the tendency to patent in other technologies. We find that technological diversification in large companies has clearly occurred in ICTs. Non-ICT specialist industries increasingly develop, rather than just utilise, the cluster of ICT-related technologies. We conclude that the development of corporate capabilities in the key technologies of the emerging ICT paradigm is more widespread than previously emphasised in the literature. One implication of this observation is that technological diversification and the information revolution may be related phenomena.     

环境规制工具与环境友好型技术创新：知识产权保护的双门槛效应

环境规制对技术创新的影响是当前学术界研究热点,已有大量基于“波特假说”的实证研究。然而，对于环境规制工具是否以及如何影响环境友好型技术创新，学术界尚未达成共识。而且，从理论上讲，“波特弱假说”涉及双重外部性问题，即技术创新的正外部性和环境污染的负外部性，需要环境规制和知识产权保护合力解决，而知识产权保护未引起普遍重视。采用中国内地30个省、市（区）2004－2019年面板数据，构建基于知识产权保护强度的动态门槛模型，实证检验知识产权保护在环境规制工具影响环境友好型技术创新中的作用机理。研究发现：3类环境规制工具对环境友好型技术创新的影响存在以知识产权保护强度为门槛的双重门槛效应。具体而言，市场激励型环境规制工具随着知识产权保护强度跨过第一门槛值呈现由负向抑制到正向促进的阶段性突变趋势；命令控制型环境规制工具随着知识产权保护强度跨过第二门槛值呈现由正向促进到负向抑制的阶段性突变趋势；公众参与型环境规制工具在知识产权保护强度介于两个门槛值之间时，对环境友好型技术创新的促进效应显著。     

Examining technological competition between BMW and Hyundai in the Korean car market

The Korean car market has increased in size. BMW and Hyundai are the top-ranked imported and domestic vehicle brands in Korea, respectively. Thus, it is important to understand these companies and the Korean car market, because technology is most significant in the vehicle industry. In this paper, we compare BMW with Hyundai from the technological perspective. Our research is focused on an analysis of the technological competition between BMW and Hyundai based on their developed technologies. We use all BMW and Hyundai patents from worldwide patent databases to analyse the two companies’ technologies. In addition, we apply statistical methods and machine learning algorithms to the patent analysis. In our conclusion, we show the technological differences and competition between BMW and Hyundai, and find their relative strengths and weaknesses.     

Technological districts localized spillovers and productivity growth. The Italian evidence on technological externalities in the core regions

Technological R&D externalities are the effects on the technological capacity of each firm stemming from the complementary and interrelated activities of R&D activities of other firms that operate both in the same industry and in other industries. R&D technological externalities are specially influential at the regional level. Regional proximity enhances the circulation of information, the opportunities for external learning; the scope for capitalizing on potential complementarities among the variety of firms and the different R&D activities being carried out by each firm, and the opportunity for technological networking. The empirical evidence on core regions in Italy in the 1980s confirms that regional clustering of complementary and interrelated R&D activities facilitated the emergence of technological districts. Firms located within technological districts benefited enormously from the R&D technological externalities spilling out from the complementary and interrelated R&D activities of other firms localized in the same area. Consequently, firms localized within technological districts had fast rates of introduction of technological innovations which, in turn, made it possible for total factor productivity levels to be raised with comparatively low levels of intra-muros R&D expenses.     

Technological generalizations and leitbilder—the anticipation of technological opportunities

Recent national technology foresight studies as well as the Millennium Project of the American Council for the United Nations University are very much based on “nodes of discussion.” These short statements are called, e.g., topics, issues, or developments. This article provides a framework for the classification and analysis of nodes related to future technological development. Key concepts of the article are “technological generalization” and “leitbild.” The topics in the technology foresight Delphi studies can be seen as different kinds of generalizations from already realized technological developments. Leitbild is a German word. Its most general meaning is a guiding image. Like a common vision, a leitbild creates a shared overall goal, offers orientation toward one long-term overall goal, and provides a basis for different professions and disciplines to work in the same direction. The analysis of leitbilder and emerging technological paradigms might contribute to the construction of topics and issues and to the argumentation processes related to them.