REIT在我国廉租房工程中应用研究

目前我国正在大规模开展廉租房建设工程,由于廉租房建设工程具有资金需求量大,资本回收周期长等特点,使得很多廉租房建设出现了融资难的现象.文章为了解决廉租房融资问题,提出了运用REIT模式来拓宽廉租房融资渠道.对比已有融资资金数量和廉租房建设成本,得出了廉租房建设存在资金缺口;分析了REIT相关优势,并给出了廉租房REIT设计方案;在此基础上从内涵报酬率、总资产收益率、净资产收益率3个角度,分析出我国廉租房运用REIT模式进行融资是可行的.针对我国开展廉租房REIT业务的障碍,提出了解决相关问题的建议.     

Transportation, Sorting and House Values

In this paper, we examine the importance of accessibility to employment and transportation system attributes for residential location choice, car ownership and house values. Using the 1980 Census of Housing and Journey to Work data merged with transportation system data, we find strong evidence of residential sorting based on employment location. We find that suburban areas with good commuter rail access to the CBD have significantly greater fractions of their labor force working in the CBD, own fewer cars and have higher house prices than similar neighborhoods and houses in census tracts without service. The house value premium is over 6.4%.     

基于DEA交叉评价的中国三线城市新型城镇化水平研究

本文在深入分析城镇化内涵的基础上,构建了量质并举的新型城镇化水平评价指标体系,创造性地运用DEA交叉评价模型解决指标体系赋权问题,并以我国31个三线城市为例展开实证研究,通过相关分析探寻影响新型城镇化水平的各种因素。研究发现我国城镇化的量、质关系远未协调,且有明显的地域差异,城镇化质量的东、中、西递减格局明显;推进落后地区的城镇化更有利于扩大消费需求,但以城镇化带动城乡差距缩小仍是长期过程。     

The Accuracy of Owner-Provided House Values: The 1978–1991 American Housing Survey

The American Housing Survey (AHS) includes the owner's valuation of the house as a measure of the house's value. If owner-stated values are accurate, the AHS (as well as other survey instruments) can be used by researchers studying a variety of topics. In this study we use the metropolitan version of the AHS for three cities over fourteen years to compare owners' valuations with sales prices of houses that sold in the twelve months prior to an interview. We find that, on average, recent buyers report house values that are 8.4% higher than the stated sales prices. Further analysis indicates that these recent buyers, when compared with owners with longer tenure, overvalue their houses by 3.3%, on average. Thus, we find that the average owner overvalues his house by 5.1%. Also, differences between sales prices and owners' valuations are not related to particular characteristics of the house, occupants (other than length of tenure), or neighborhood. Thus, the use of the owners' valuations will result in accurate estimates of house price indexes and will provide reliable estimates of the prices of house and neighborhood characteristics.     

我国石油石化企业合理投资回报率水平研究

我国石油石化企业在“十一五”期间资产规模基本实现翻番,但投资资本回报率与跨国石油公司相比仍存在较大差距.近些年学术研究领域提出了对我国改革开放以来资本回报率的基本判断,并探讨了总资本回报率的计算方法,但这些研究集中在社会总资本回报率方面.2010年国资委提出的经济增加值(EVA)考核办法,体现了加权平均资本成本(WACC)作为中央企业投资回报率的最低要求,但忽视了企业通过市场筹集资金所应得到的风险溢价.本文基于证券市场投资者视角,并结合石油石化企业典型项目经验等,探讨用无风险收益率加上风险收益率(风险收益率=公司风险系数×市场平均风险溢价)来衡量企业的合理投资回报率.研究认为,“十二五”期间我国石油石化企业合理投资回报率应不低于12％,这一数据可为存量资产优化和新增投入控制提供决策参考.     

Big House, Little House: Relative Size and Value

How do markets value relative house size in a neighborhood? The literature offers differing rationales: atypical houses sell for less, capitalization of property taxes penalizes larger and benefits smaller houses in mixed neighborhoods and conspicuous consumption reinforces the value of relatively larger houses and reduces the value of relatively smaller houses to consumers. Using a simultaneous price‐liquidity model that controls for neighborhood supply and demand conditions, this article finds a dominant tax capitalization effect on price and marketing time that appears to override any extant atypicality or conspicuous consumption effects.     

U.S. Office Market Values During the Past Decade: How Distorted Have Appraisals Been?

The leading time series of real estate returns is the Russell-NCREIF (RN) Property Index. The RN series tracks returns, cash flow plus appraised capital gains, for multiple property types. To evaluate the accuracy of the capital-gains component of the office-market return series, this paper constructs two benchmark measures for the present value of projectable office-market cash flows from 1982 to 1991 and compares these with a real value series based on the RN capital-gain component. The RN-based series runs 30% above the highest of the benchmarks throughout the 1986–1989 period. While this overstatement is consistent with the development of a price bubble, failure of the bubble to burst until 1990–1991 is implausible. Real estate experts recognized overvaluation in assessments as early as the spring of 1986.
The RN Office-Market Index was slow to register price declines when the markets first weakened and then overstated the rate of decline once the market began to bottom out. This pattern likely reflects incentives for appraisers to smooth potentially temporary price volatility and for investment managers to maintain appraised values in declining markets. It traces as well as to systematic differences in the character and condition of the properties that lend to trade at different stages of the real estate cycle. These incentives and differences provide reason to believe that other RN indexes were similarly distorted.     

Nominal and Real Required Returns in Present Value Analysis

Present value analysis is complicated by uncertainty about future inflation. If it so happened that real cash flows did not depend on inflation and real required returns were close to zero, then inflation and required returns could be omitted from present value analysis. Unfortunately, they cannot. This paper shows that real cash flows are typically sensitive to inflation and that, outside of the 1950s and 1960s, real interest rates, have not been very stable or close to zero. There have consequently been many years when a neglect of inflation and interest rates would have caused substantial present-value errors. It is also argued that interest rates on Treasury and Corporate AAA bonds are only appropriate for virtually risk-free projects. An engineering project normally commands a substantial risk premium and the neglect of such premia can cause a large overestimate of a project's present value.     

Endogenous capacities and price competition: The role of demand uncertainty

We analyze the role of demand uncertainty in markets of fixed size, in which firms take long-run capacity decisions prior to competing in prices. We characterize the set of subgame perfect Nash equilibria under various assumptions regarding the nature and timing of demand uncertainty. In order to prove equilibrium existence, we identify a sufficient condition for the capacity choice game to be submodular. This condition resembles the standard downward-sloping marginal revenue condition used in Cournot games. A robust conclusion of the analysis is that equilibrium capacity choices are asymmetric, even when firms are ex-ante identical. Concerning the equivalence between the capacity-price game and the Cournot game, we find that with inelastic demands, the equilibria of the former belong to the equilibrium set of the latter. However, as compared to the Cournot game, the capacity-price game leads to lower prices and generates price dispersion.     

EQUIVALENCE OF CASH FLOWS WHEN COMPOUNDING OCCURS LESS FREQUENTLY THAN THE CASH FLOWS

A method for determining the equivalent cash flow when compounding occurs less frequently than the cash flow is presented. Existing methods for determining the equivalence of cash flows ignore the time value of money and, hence, are not satisfactory. A prorated simple interest is used for calculating the interest within the compounding period. An example utilizing the proposed method is presented.     

Large‐Scale Buy‐to‐Rent Investors in the Single‐Family Housing Market: The Emergence of a New Asset Class

In 2012, several large firms began purchasing single‐family homes, creating large portfolios of rental property, and securitizing these investments in capital markets. We present the first systematic evidence on this new investor activity in order to shed light on the factors that have supported its emergence. Three key factors were the ample supply of property for sale, tight mortgage financing and a decrease in acquisition and managerial costs brought about by technological advances. In addition, we show that buy‐to‐rent investors appear to have supported house prices in the neighborhoods where they concentrated.     

Risk Allowance in Original Capital Investments*

In engineering economy studies, the total risk capital is often not the original capital investment. If a firm remains profitable in the future, a portion of a completely unsuccessful investment can be recovered (1) through income-tax saving as a result of the depreciation cash flows, and (2) through possible reuse of the idle depreciating facilities.

To allow for income-tax savings, the authors propose that the present worth of the guaranteed depreciation cash flow be discounted at the cost of capital and subtracted from the total initial investment to give a better measure of the risk capital. The operating profit, depreciation-free net income, can then be treated in an appropriate fashion using probabilities or a higher discount rate to account for future uncertainties in forecasting market volume, price, manufacturing costs, etc. The application of this principle has been illustrated through a number of ex amples. The results indicate the value of distinguishing between the depreciation and operational cash flow in evaluating high-risk projects in which the yield criterion is used and in mutually exclusive evaluations in which capital investment and depreciation life vary.

A further reduction in original risk capital investment may be justified if the investment still has alternate use value should the project fail; that is, in addition to the depreciation tax credit from an idle piece of equipment. The application of this principle to a mutually exclusive decision involving a grass roots plant versus a plant located as a part of an integrated facility is illustrated. Interestingly, while most decision-makers tend to be conservative with regard to reducing risk capital, ignoring the reuse potential is inconsistent in this situation as it will tend to favor the investment with the greater risk, i.e., the grass roots location.     

A review of: “PROJECT MANAGEMENT IN MANUFACTURING AND HIGH TECHNOLOGY OPERATIONS” by Adedeji B. Badiru,John Wiley and Sons,Inc., New York, 1988, xxii + 319 pp., ISBN 0471-62892-1, List $44.95.

The conventional approach to considering working capital cash flows in capital budgeting is to omit them or include some ad hoc figures at the initiation and termination of the project. The authors argue for an endogenous system of estimating relevant working capital cash flows on a periodic basis. Otherwise, the present value of working capital cash flows is biased against the project's acceptance. Examples of calculating working capital cash flows as related to changes in annual sales are presented for three time patterns of sales and contrasted to the conventional method. An empirical study of the linear relationship of net working capital and sales revenue of 770 companies is reported, and an alternative cash flow model is offered thai includes working capilal cash flows.     

The Duration of Marketing Time of Residential Housing

The marketing of unique durable goods such as housing presents a good example for the application of search theory. An optimal stopping rule strategy is employed to model sellers' behavior. The primary hypothesis is that the greater the atypicality of a house, the greater the expected variance of offers. Because a maximizing seller will wish to entertain more offers the greater is the variance, the marketing time of atypical houses will be relatively longer than that of standard houses. Using a sample of resale houses, the empirical study uses a failure time model to confirm the hypothesis. Extensions are mentioned, including discussions of the role of the list price and the limitations of the standard hedonic regression approach when applied to housing.     

ON THE EQUIVALENCE OF NET PRESENT VALUE AND MARKET VALUE ADDED AS MEASURES OF A PROJECT'S ECONOMIC WORTH

The metric Economic Value Added, or EVA, has recently become quite popular for analyzing company balance sheets, determining executive compensation packages and even project selection. The analysis entails comparing net after-tax operating profit against the allocated cost of capital for a given period. This paper shows, in general, that Market Value Added (MVA), which is the present value of a series of EVA values, is economically equivalent to the traditional NPV measure of worth for evaluating an after-tax cash flow profile of a project if the cost of capital is used for discounting. Additionally, insight is provided into the rationale behind EVA analysis through an interpretation of its capital and income allocation procedure for investment projects.     

A review of: “FORTY CENTURIES OF WAGE AND PRICE CONTROLS: HOW NOT TO FIGHT INFLATION” by R. L. Schuettinger and E. F. Buttler,Caroline House,Ottawa, Illinois, 1979, 184 pagea,list $9.95.

We show that when a project is financed with amortized debt, traditional capital budgeting procedures may lead to biased net present values. A model is presented, based on the seminal work of Modigliani-Miller, which allows the net present value of a project to be determined by a weighted average cost of capital that varies with the amortization process.

The implications are substantial for financing arrangements such as long term loans, sinking fund debt, leasing, real estate financed by mortgages, and discount debt obligations.     

Variation Across Price Segments and Locations: A Comprehensive Quantile Regression Analysis of the Sydney Housing Market

Standard house price indices measure average movements of average houses in average locations belonging to an average price segment and hence obscure spatial and cross‐sectional variation of price appreciation rates even within a single metropolitan area. This article combines penalized quantile regression techniques with the hedonic imputation approach to reveal such kind of variation. The method is applied to house transactions from Sydney between 2001 and 2014. The analysis finds significant variation across sub‐markets over time and in particular during the boom‐and‐bust cycle peaking in 2004. Appreciation rates were highest for suburban, low‐priced and lowest for inner‐city, high‐priced houses.     

The Impact on Housing Values of Restrictions on Rights of Ownership: The Case of an Occupant's Age

With the exception of anecdotal information, little is known about the specific effects on the value of a house because its ownership is restricted to people older than a certain age. This article provides an empirically-derived assessment of the impact on the selling price of single-family residences when their ownership is age restricted. To determine the effect on the sales price of age-restricted houses, a standard hedonic pricing model is applied to a sample of 371 sales transactions drawn from a suburban area of a large city. The results indicate that an age restriction placed on houses decreases their value by 6%. This finding may be of interest to local land-use regulators, developers who are considering developing age-restricted houses and appraisers who wish to make value adjustments to these homes.     

A Review of: “STATISTICS OF EXTREMES” By Emil J. Gumbel Columbia University Press New York, 1958 375 pp. $15.00

Standard procedures for evaluating future cash flows are to find an appropriate discount rate consistent with the cash flow's risk and then to derive a present value. While discounted cash flows seem appropriate for many instances, finding appropriate discount rates is often difficult, or discount rates may not exist when the risk is actually a function of a decision that requires the cash-flow valuation. We consider two approaches that have been suggested to alleviate this problem: the capital asset pricing model (CAPM) and the risk-neutral pricing arguments from option theory. We discuss the assumptions inherent in these models and show the results on the well-known news vendor model. Our option pricing results correspond to Singhal's [17] results using CAPM and a different valuation procedure for the option pricing model. We, however, derive a simpler expression that clearly illustrates differences from the standard form ignoring risk.     

Evaluating the Costs of Increased Lending in Low and Negative Growth Local Housing Markets

The literatures on default and the evaluation of low downpayment mortgage programs are extended by showing within an options pricing framework how differences in expected price appreciation trends across housing markets can influence default and, thereby, the cost of programs designed to increase mortgage liquidity. An equilibrium mortgage rate reflecting the risk premium required to compensate for expected default-related losses is endogenously determined within the model. Evaluating the entire process by which program losses arise strictly within a rigorous asset pricing framework has potentially important implications for policy evaluation, as the estimated present value of program losses in declining markets where expected default is high is quite sensitive to the choice of the discount rate. The implications of increased lending in low and negative price appreciation local markets are also investigated.