Austrian economics behind the iron curtain: The rebirth of an intellectual tradition

This article documents the spread of the Austrian school of economics in central and eastern Europe following the fall of the Berlin Wall. Extensive research based on interviews, fieldwork and archival analysis records the development of distinct epistemic communities throughout the region and the subsequent networks that have emerged to unite them. In doing so, we provide a rare history of ‘centre-right’ political ideas in eastern Europe, a chronology of the development and influence of libertarianism, cursory intellectual biographies of neglected Austrian economists and empirical evidence that contributes to the epistemic communities approach to the study of idea diffusion. The findings support the view that the policy reforms during the transition process were built on neoclassical orthodoxy rather than ‘neoliberalism’ or ‘market fundamentalism’ but point to a fast-growing epistemic community that has had increasingly significant policy influence.     

Economic shocks and lottery sales: an examination of Maine State lottery sales

ABSTRACT

Most U.S. states earn significant amount of revenues from lottery sales. However, they are also criticized for promoting the lotteries because they have been seen as taking advantage of poor populations. The purpose of this study is to identify the impact of various economic factors on lottery sales by using zip-code level sales within the state of Maine. The results show that an increase of 1% in unemployment rate results in a 0.38% increase in draw lottery sales, but it has no significant impact on instant lottery sales. This highlights the importance of differentiating between two major types of lotteries.     

Forecasting sales and product evolution: The case of the hybrid/electric car

We present a model that forecasts sales and product evolution, based on data on market and industry, which can be collected before the product is introduced. Product evolution can be incremental but can also take place by releasing new generations. In our model adoption of a new product is motivated by attribute improvements (enabled by technology evolution), and firms' attribute improvements strategies are motivated by market growth and directed by market preferences. The interdependency between attributes' improvements and cumulative adoption level makes the problem inherently dynamic. The dependency of attribute levels on adoption levels is assessed using industry and technology analysis. Market preferences and purchase intention response to attribute levels changes are assessed based on a conjoint study. The option of collecting and interpreting data about both demand and supply aspects, before the new product is introduced, enables us to estimate sales and technology progress endogenously rather than to require them as inputs. We demonstrate the method on the hybrid car market.     

产业集群与产业生态互动关系研究

产业集群是当今最具竞争力的产业组织之一,产业生态化是实现经济、生态、社会可持续发展的重要途径.两种产业组织形式存在较强的互动性.对此,本文从产业集群的生态特性、产业集群是产业生态化的最佳组织形式以及产业生态化发展促进产业集群演化3个方面进行阐述.     

Cyclical industrial dynamics: The case of the global semiconductor industry

In this paper, we focus on firms' cyclical behavior in the global semiconductor industry. We demonstrate that these cyclical dynamics at the industry level differ from both the business cycles at the macro-economic level and the lengthy industrial technology life cycle. We discuss a range of possible causes of those cyclical industrial dynamics, including the general business cycles as well as industry-specific factors. Our study reports three stylized facts in relation to the cyclical industrial dynamics in the global semiconductor industry: first, the industry is more concentrated during the industry cycle downturns; second, the capital investment of the industry as a whole follows a ‘pro-cyclical’ pattern; and third, firms that pursued a ‘counter-cyclical’ capital investment strategy during the industry cycle downturn have reaped rewards during the subsequent cycle period. These facts suggest that cyclical industrial dynamics, especially the industry cycle downturns, play an important role in firm rivalry, strategic positioning and industrial growth.     

The role of industrial classification in the micro-macro integration: The case of the banking business in the 1997 North American industrial classification system

Although economic classification is not part of the Ruggles's prodigious contributions to the System of National Accounts, it is certainly meant to help achieve the integration and linking of macrodata with microdata. Unfortunately, economic classification is a component of the statistical infrastructure that often remains unquestioned by the existing industrial organization literature. This paper fills this gap using the banking business under the 1997 North American Industry Classification System (NAICS) as an example. More specifically, the paper ascertains the extent to which NAICS succeeds at combining the various activities performed by Canadian banks into homogeneous industries. Assuming that producing units within the same industry should display more similar cost structure than those in less similar industries, we find that NAICS—at least for the banking sector—is successful at identifying and grouping producing units into homogeneous economic activities. This result is particularly helpful for empirical research that relies on microdata to draw inferences on the structures, conduct and economic performance of the banking sector as whole.     

Learning about the arrival of sales

We analyse optimal stopping when the economic environment changes because of learning. A primary application is optimal selling of an asset when demand is uncertain. The seller learns about the arrival rate of buyers. As time passes without a sale, the seller becomes more pessimistic about the arrival rate. When the arrival of buyers is not observed, the rate at which the seller revises her beliefs is affected by the price she sets. Learning leads to a higher posted price by the seller. When the seller does observe the arrival of buyers, she sets an even higher price.     

The process of technology evolution : Multitechnology innovations as the driving force

Technological innovations are the substance of technology and the drivers of its evolution. This process was studied by analyzing the US patent data base, getting information on types of innovation and on their trends.It was found that the evolution of a technology depends upon its annexing multitechnology innovations. Ascending technologies utilize wide-range innovations, while mature technologies utilize narrow-range innovations. The findings are summed up in a model that shows the life cycle of a technology, from emergence to maturity.The model can be applied at a laboratory level, at a firm strategy level, as well as at the national level. Some examples are presented to illustrate applications.     

The factory system in the British industrial revolution: A complementarity thesis

This paper offers an explanation for the rise of the factory system in Britain during the Industrial Revolution (1770-1850) based on the concept of complementarity: Investment in machinery, process supervision, and improved quality control formed a cluster of complementary activities in which adopting any one increased the marginal return to also adopting the others. Further, factory owners introduced process supervision not only to increase work effort, but also to balance worker incentives among production, quality control, and asset maintenance tasks. To test this hypothesis, I have constructed a new data set from firm studies and archival records. Measures of firms’ adoption of the activities are positively correlated in the cross-section of firms, providing evidence in favor of the complementarity hypothesis.     

多智能体的知识管理对CAS理论的补充与完善

复杂性理论中的自适应复杂系统(CAS)是知识管理实现的理论基础,复杂性理论发展至今,对知识管理的实际应用起到了很好的推动作用。随着知识管理研究的深入和技术进步,复杂性理论也要得到丰富和充实,使之适应新的理念、新的环境和新的技术。     

A natural experiment of the effect of advertising on sales: the SASOL case

China's so-called ‘reform and opening up’ policy (Gai Ge Kai Fang), implemented nearly 30 years ago, has led to tremendous economic development. China's nominal Gross Domestic Product (GDP) was 3.25 trillion US dollars in 2007, making it the fourth largest economy in the world. At the same time, income inequality has become quite skewed in China, inviting considerable criticism. Moreover, the trend towards greater income inequality persists. Of particular public policy relevance is the effect of income inequality on health disparities in China, particularly for low-income households. This study addresses this issue using a longitudinal dataset from the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) over the period 1997 to 2006. Our central finding is that income inequality affects health differently by socioeconomic status: income inequality harms individual health among low income households by more than it does among high income households. More specifically, health is more adversely affected by greater income inequality for households with low incomes. China's central government is committed to making further investments in the health care system. As part of that effort, attention should be directed at low income households to reduce health inequality, possibly providing them with a health insurance safety net similar to Medicaid in USA.     

Problem-oriented modeling in industrial technology: The steel industry

The development of up-to-date industrial technology and improving efficiency can be achieved by operational control and management and by research and design. These three problems and the corresponding subproblems can be formulated, investigated, and solved on the basis of problem-oriented mathematical models.The general approach to the development of the problem-oriented models has several particular features that depend on the problems to be solved—knowledge and data about the systems to be modeled, demand for model accuracy, type of model solution (off-line or on-line), computer type, and so on.The results of implementing problem-oriented models to improve the efficiency of industrial technology is considered for the case of steelmaking in basic oxygen furnaces (BOF), which is the most widely used technology in the world.The problems that were formulated, the approaches to the development of the mathematical models, and the processes that occur in BOF technology are typical for other different kinds of industrial technology, such as chemicals, the cement industry, atomic reactors, and the glass industry.     

The effect of fertility on labour force participation: The Spanish evidence

Abstract. The aim of this paper is to estimate the effect of fertility on the decision of labour force participation of married females in Spain, allowing for the existence of unobserved characteristics that affect both fertility and participation. We use a pooling of five waves of the European Household Panel for Spain (1994–1998). Results indicate that not taking into account the unobserved characteristics that affect both variables imposes on average a strong downward bias on the true effect of fertility on participation. This bias is especially strong for highly educated females. We are grateful to Raquel Carrasco and an anonymous referee for helpful comments. Financial support from Gobierno Vasco (PI-1999-160)), Ministry of Education and Science (BE2000-1394), Instituto de la Mujer and Universidad del País Vasco (UPV 00035.321-13511/2001) is gratefully acknowledged.     

The housing market in Beijing and delays in sales: A fractional polynomial survival model

This paper analyzes housing sales delay in Beijing, China. In the housing market, new properties sometimes experience delays before they are sold. Such delays reflect the preferences of buyers with regard to the characteristics of the housing. Therefore, it is important for managerial purposes to identify the causes of housing sales delays. It is concluded that delays are largely explained by the dwellings' characteristics and location. Policy implications of the research findings, particularly those related to means of shortening the delays, are discussed.     

The need for an industrial policy in the transition: Questions and challenges

Conclusions The wide set of objectives and the employment of very diversified policy instruments gave to the industrial policy in the transitional economies, a very specific importance and responsibility for establishing a link between the macroeconomic policy and the adjustments at structural level.The policy issues analysed reveal that there is the necessity of a non-rigid and dogmatic approach, adapting the policies and tools to the rapid changes underway. The long-term perspective, in terms of strategies for new growth patterns, has to be modulated with the short-term targets, that have to face the contingent constraints: the role of the industrial policy is also that of establishing a close relation between the two moments, softening the emergence of trade-offs. The constraints, in particular financial, remain substantial and the process of adjustment cannot be without pain.In this framework the main question concerns the capacity of the government in improving its ability to establish the main outlines and to implement them efficiently: a process oflearning by doing has already started and is improving rapidly.     

The economic fertility of industrial projects

The economic impact of two industrial projects was forecast using economic fertility analysis. The results of the analysis suggest that the implementation of projects such as those described here add to the resources of government, enabling them to move closer to realization of social objectives, whereas concurrent decreased government revenues and increased transfer payments based on short term political considerations are directly inflationary and represent a threat to longer term social stability. The two projects were a crude oil petrochemical plant, with an investment of $200 million, and a controlled environment agricultural plant, costing $20 million. Direct, indirect, and induced economic activity for each project were calculated, from which income and employment multipliers, and forward and backward linkages were derived. New government revenues, balance of trade effects, and new capital formation were also forecast. Employment in terms of man-years on construction and in jobs created by the operations, as well as consumer expenditures and personal savings, were other outputs of the analysis. Construction and operation phases of the two projects were more beneficial than an equivalent increase in transfer payments in the generation of longer term effects such as new capital formation, new government revenues, and import-export balance, but were less efficient than increased welfare payments in generating short term effects such as consumer expenditures and short term employment.     

The future employment impacts of industrial robots : An input-output approach

An input-output framework is employed to estimate the indirect as well as direct effects of industrial robots on employment by industry sector and occupation. Net employment impacts are defined as the combined effects of the production and the use of industrial robots under the assumption that the demand for goods produced with this new technology is unaffected. These employment effects are estimated as the difference between a base economy (1977) and the same economy with an additional robot-producing sector and given (1990) stocks of robots installed in manufacturing industries. Six scenarios are defined by alternative levels of Robotics sector output and installed robots. The results show that job displacement is 4.5 to 6.2 times greater than job creation, that under the most extreme scenario the aggregate net job loss is 718,000, about 0.7 percent of total 1984 employment, and that the growth occupations (engineers) are highly skilled and white-collar while the declining occupations (welders, painters, machine operators, laborers) are relatively low skilled and blue-collar.     

Sample attrition and labor force dynamics: Evidence from the Spanish labor force survey

In this paper we examine a number of issues that arise in investigating labor force dynamics using the Spanish Labor Force Survey (EPA). These issues are by no means specific to the Spanish case and apply to most European-style labor force surveys. Our main conclusions may be summarized as follows. First, survey nonresponse cannot be neglected. Second, the EPA tends to underestimate employment and participation of high-educated young people, and to overestimate those of the low-educated elderly. Finally, we find little evidence that attrition causes important selection biases in estimating quarterly transition probabilities.