新兴发展中国家金融业FDI研究综述

20世纪90年代以来,全球外商直接投资的一个显著事实是向新兴发展中国家金融业的快速流动态势。金融业FDI的现实发展引起了国外学者的广泛探讨,总体上有两个方面的内容得到较多的关注：一是金融业FDI的动因和决策因素,二是金融业FDI对东道国的产业效应。本文对这两个方面的研究文献进行了系统的梳理和评述,以期为国内相关领域的研究提供理论参考与借鉴。     

打造现代农业政策性银行 支持社会主义新农村建设

中国农业发展银行是在改革开放新时期,我国建设社会主义市场经济体制的大潮中建立的。它是我国唯一的农业政策性银行,以支持＂三农＂为己任。建行以来,特别是2004年国务院第57次常务会议以来,在党中央、国务院的坚强领导和有关部门的大力支持下,农发行坚持解放思想,勇于改革创新,     

SOCIAL SECURITY AND THE POOR: Choices for Developing Countries

There is an urgent need to provide an effective safety net forthe poorest in societies ranging from socialist countries undergoingreform to Sub-Saharan African economies. This article examinessocial security systems in industrial countries and explorestheir relevance to developing countries. The objective of socialsecurity is defined broadly as public action, including thatby communities, to protect the poor and vulnerable from adversechanges in living standards. Relevant instruments include employmentand income guarantees, and also such formal policy instrumentsas assistance, social insurance, and family allowances. Thearticle highlights issues that arise in providing social securityin developing countries, particularly its effectiveness in protectingthe target groups.      

What Works in Fighting Diarrheal Diseases in Developing Countries? A Critical Review

The Millennium Development Goals call for reducing by half theproportion of people without sustainable access to safe drinkingwater. This goal was adopted in large part because clean waterwas seen as critical to fighting diarrheal disease, which kills2 million children annually. There is compelling evidence thatprovision of piped water and sanitation can substantially reducechild mortality. However, in dispersed rural settlements, providingcomplete piped water and sanitation infrastructure to householdsis expensive. Many poor countries have therefore focused insteadon providing community-level water infrastructure, such as wells.Various traditional child health interventions have been shownto be effective in fighting diarrhea. Among environmental interventions,handwashing and point-of-use water treatment both reduce diarrhea,although more needs to be learned about ways to encourage householdsto take up these behavior changes. In contrast, there is littleevidence that providing community-level rural water infrastructuresubstantially reduces diarrheal disease or that this infrastructurecan be effectively maintained. Investments in communal waterinfrastructure short of piped water may serve other needs, andmay reduce diarrhea in particular circumstances, but the casefor prioritizing communal infrastructure provision needs tobe made rather than assumed. JEL codes: Q56, Q52, O22     

发展中国家货币危机以及对中国的启示

本文主要以阿根廷、土耳其和印度尼西亚这三个发展中国家为例,通过介绍各自货币危机发生的情况和原因,寻找共性并进行总结,提炼出发展中国家容易引发货币危机的主要原因:长期面临高外债、高通胀、国家经济结构单一和外汇储备偿债能力不足。并针对这些原因,结合我国当前经济发展特点,提出了要未雨绸缪,避免发生货币危机的对策建议:即保持外债负债率整体可控,警惕外债债务率过高、保持外汇储备偿债能力充足,增持黄金等稳定的外汇资产和控制货币供应量,抑制通货膨胀。     

Public Sector Reform in New Zealand and Its Relevance to Developing Countries

Does New Zealand's success story have lessons for developingcountries contemplating public sector reform? That questionusually elicits one of two reactions, both inadvisable in theauthors' view. The first reaction is to be impressed with theefficacy of the reforms and conclude that they should be adopteduncritically in other countries. The second reaction is thatthe special conditions existing in New Zealand are such thatnone of its reform experience is relevant to others. The authorstake a middle position, maintaining that poorer countries canindeed extrapolate from the experience of their higher incomeneighbor despite the different conditions under which they haveto operate. New Zealand's comprehensive overhaul of its publicsector affords both general principles and specific elementsrelevant to countries looking to improve the quality, efficiency,and cost effectiveness of their public service sectors, anda careful analysis of those reforms can ascertain what mightbe transferable and what principles might apply.      

Housing Policy in Developing Countries: Conjectures and Refutations

This article discusses housing policy in developing economies.It examines recent research findings in light of earlier argumentsas to the benefits of more market-oriented approaches. It alsolooks at whether the recommendations of earlier work have beenrefuted or developed in subsequent analyses and policy measures.In particular, it reviews the empirical analysis of the effectsof policy on housing supply, the richer understanding of theeffects that land market regulations have on housing affordabilityand the functioning of urban areas, and the alleged mysteriouseffects that researchers claim effective property rights haveon housing policy and on development more generally. It alsoexamines the effects of the increased emphasis on communityparticipation, showing how it helps to more fully reconcilethe incentives faced by beneficiaries of housing policy anddonors. Finally, it examines recent literature on the welfareeffects of rent control. The article shows that some of theconjectures as to the likely benefits of more market-based policyhave been refuted, but large welfare gains for poor people canstill be realized by adapting this approach. Furthermore, thisapproach appears to be gaining ground as the consensus approachto effective housing policy.      

Growth and Equity in Developing Countries: A Reinterpretation of the Sri Lankan Experience

In the important debate between the proponents of direct (basicneeds) and indirect (economic growth) measures of promotingwelfare, Sri Lanka has frequently been cited as one countrywhich has successfully pursued the direct approach—ithas raised living standards without much cost in terms of reducedgrowth. This conclusion, however, is based on analyses whichdo not account for the initial conditions of the countries beingcompared. After methodologically incorporating these concerns,neither the improvement in living standards nor the 2.0 percentper capita growth rate during the period of direct policy measures(1960–78) was exceptional. In contrast, during the periodof more indirect growth-promoting policies (1977–84),(i) economic growth more than doubled to an average rate of4.3 percent per capita per annum; (ii) expenditure inequalitydid not significantly change; (iii) consumption expendituresof the population, and the poor, generally increased; and (iv)several living standard indicators continued to improve.     

发展中国家可持续发展战略思考

发展中国家是当今世界的主体，发展中国家要实现可持续发展，必须融入经济全球化的浪潮之中，利用“比较优势”与“后发优势”，从本国的实际出发，扬长避短，加快改革步伐，实现可持续发展。     

金融全球化与发展中国家的金融风险

金融全球化在推动经济增长的同时,也增加了金融体系的风险性,发展中国家由于其金融体系的脆弱性,其遭受打击程度要比发达国家严重得多。当今世界金融失衡的传递效应很显著,金融危机可以通过货币、资本、央行政策以及心理预期等因素进行传递。发展中国家由于金融体系的脆弱性,更成为金融危机的最大受害者。所以,加强监管,应该成为我们面对金融全球化的首要任务。     

西方国家税收管理研究的发展演变

本文梳理了西方国家税收管理研究发展演变的基本历程,从早期学者的初步研究,到古典学派的进一步研究,再到历史学派和社会政策学派最终创立了税收管理的理论体系,最后发展到现代学者对此问题的量化研究。同时指出,了解税收管理研究的发展演变过程,有益于我们明确税收管理研究的新课题及建立适合于中国国情的科学的税收管理体系。     

Capital Flows to Developing Countries: Long- and Short-Term Determinants

This article focuses on the determinants of the large portfolioflows from the United States to Latin American and Asian countriesduring 1988–92. Cointegration techniques reveal that bothdomestic and global factors explain bond and equity flows todeveloping countries and represent significant long-run determinantsof portfolio flows. The article also investigates the dynamicsof portfolio flows by estimating seemingly unrelated error-correctionmodels. Global and country-specific factors are equally importantin determining the long-run movements in equity flows for bothAsian and Latin American countries, while global factors aremuch more important than domestic factors in explaining thedynamics of bond flows. U.S. interest rates are a particularlyimportant determinant of the short-run dynamics of portfolio,especially bond, flows to developing countries.     

Macroeconomic Volatility and Welfare in Developing Countries: An Introduction

Macroeconomic volatility, both a source and a reflection ofunderdevelopment, is a fundamental concern for developing countries.Their high aggregate instability results from a combinationof large external shocks, volatile macroeconomic policies, microeconomicrigidities, and weak institutions. Volatility entails a directwelfare cost for risk-averse individuals, as well as an indirectone through its adverse effect on income growth and development.This article provides a brief overview of the recent literatureon macroeconomic volatility in developing countries, highlightingits causes, consequences, and possible remedies. It then introducesthe contributions of a recent conference on the subject, sponsoredby the World Bank and Pompeu Fabra University, Barcelona.     

教育对经济增长的影响机制分析:来自发展中国家的经验证据

教育的落后是导致贫困的一个极为重要的因素。从世界范围来看,降低贫困率的主要原因来自经济增长,而经济增长源于人力资本和物质资本的积累,两种资本的积累又主要取决于技术水平的高低,而这最终归因于教育水平的提高。本文考察了教育对经济增长影响的宏观和微观机制,并对低、中、高收入国家进行了实证比较分析。对于发展中国家特别是贫困地区来说,增加教育投入,提高教育水平是降低贫困的重要战略。     

The Current Account in Developing Countries: A Perspective from the Consumption-Smoothing Approach

According to the consumption-smoothing view, a high degree ofcapital mobility implies that agents are able to fully smooththeir consumption in the face of shocks. This article developsa framework to test whether, indeed, the current account indeveloping countries acts as a buffer to smooth consumptionin the face of shocks to national cash flow, which is definedas output less investment less government expenditure. Usingvector autoregression analysis, we estimate the optimal consumption-smoothingcurrent account with data from a sample of forty-five developingcountries. We find that for a majority of the countries, thehypothesis of full consumption smoothing cannot be rejected,suggesting that capital mobility may after all be quite highin this group of countries.     

The Costs and Benefits of Regulation: Implications for Developing Countries

The literature on the benefits and costs of regulation demonstratesthat this issue can be explored systematically using standardeconomic analysis. It also shows that regulation can have asignificant adverse impact on economic growth. Specifically,regulation aimed at controlling prices and entry into marketsthat would otherwise be workably competitive is likely to reducegrowth and adversely affect the average standard of living.In addition, process regulation can impose a significant coston the economy. Nonetheless, social regulations may have significantnet benefits for the average consumer if designed judiciously. There are several policies developing countries might consideradopting to improve their general approach to regulation. Theappropriate regulatory tools and framework will depend on manyfactors, including bureaucratic expertise, resource availability,political constraints, and economic impacts. There is a generalneed to enhance the capability for evaluating regulation atthe local and national levels.      

Remittances and Currency Crisis: The Case of Developing and Emerging Countries

Employing the first-generation currency crisis model of Flood and Garber (1984), I explore the financial effects of migrants' remittances on the economies of developing and emerging countries in a currency crisis. The model implies that remittances can contribute to a reduction in the likelihood of a currency crisis and appreciation in foreign exchange rates via the promotion of foreign exchange reserves. Panel estimation with twelve developing and emerging countries that previously experienced financial crises confirms the implications, suggesting that migrants' remittances can play a significant role in mitigating financial constraints and thus contribute to financial stability.