An empirical model of residential location and the journey-to-work in a metropolitan area

In this paper we present and estimate a single equation model designed to explain the residential location behaviour of individuals living in a multi-centered metropolitan area. We test the model for heads of households and non-heads of households separately, as well as for the total working population, in order to isolate differences in commuting behaviour between primary and secondary wage earners. The relationships are estimated from 1971 Census, cross-section data using least squares multiple regression. The data pertain to the Toronto Census Metropolitan Area (CMA) and sixty-three designated zones therein.The estimation results reveal that although location-rents prove to be significant in the individual's residential location decision-making process, their effect was limited to discouraging those employed in or near the central business district (CBD) from living close to work. The existence of secondary employment centres did not have the same significant effect in bidding up location-rents. Furthermore, contrary to the standard theory, the results suggest that residential location decisions are made in response to the availability of collective residential opportunities and workers' preferences for specific residential attributes rather than by reference to the “transportation cost—housing cost” trade-off. Among the socio-economic variables, age of the worker is found to be most significant in affecting journey-to-work distance. The results provide some evidence that non-heads are, to a certain extent, more sensitive to urban structural constraints in their commuting behaviour.     

A model of population distribution,traffic congestion,and neighborhood crowding in a circular city

An idealized static equilibrium model of a circularly symmetric city is presented. The model allows one to compute the spatial distribution of residences, given certain simple and plausible assumptions about the “costs” of transport, housing and neighborhood crowding. The model is chosen so as to guarantee that in first approximation, the residential population distribution which would be considered optimal by a perfect planner is identical to the distribution reached in a push-shove, laissez-faire equilibrium. This aspect of the construction is shown to be related in a simple way to the familiar “external diseconomy” situation in which a free resource is allocated among alternative uses by equating average, rather than marginal products. The existence of an infinite class of models in which the associated planner's optimum and laissez-faire equilibria are equivalent follows naturally from the standard theory of the private and social costs of highway congestion. The model leads naturally to exponentially falling population distributions which exhibit an “urban-suburban” dichotomy, to a particular overall city size, and to an optimal allocation of land between transport and residential uses.     

Residential density functions: An alternative to Muth's negative exponential model

A “base-price” model of a consumer is described and shown to be consistent with a variety of empirical results for United States cities. Each consumer, in a heterogeneous population, is assumed to trade a range of nonhousing goods and employment at locations not necessarily near the city center. A negative exponential function of distance from the city center is shown to be a reasonable approximation to a city's net residential density function. Differences in the relative shares, rather than absolute levels, of expenditure on housing and nonhousing goods are identified as a possible cause of spatial segmentation of a population.     

Urban school desegregation and declines in white enrollment: A reexamination

This paper presents a reexamination of James Coleman et al.'s study of white enrollment losses from desegregating urban school districts over the period 1968–1973. New equations are estimated using a different measure of desegregation, additional explanatory variables, and modified samples. The earlier conclusion that desegregation has been a significant stimulant of white enrollment losses in the largest central city districts is supported, although this overall effect comes almost entirely from districts in which black-white contact exceeds a threshold level. In addition, the age structure of the district's white population and the geographical coverage of the district are significant in explaining white losses for some samples.     

A bias in estimating urban population density functions

This paper demonstrates that because of the rules used to delineate census tracts, unweighted estimation of an urban population density function using census tract observations leads to a severe upward bias in the estimated function. A weighted estimation procedure which leads to an unbiased estimate is proposed. The paper also points out that if one computes the integral of an unbiased estimate of a density function over the area of a city, that integral is not necessarily an unbiased estimate of total population. The paper thus explains the “disturbing” empirical results concerning density functions reported by McDonald and Bowman.     

Urban household behavior in a model of completely centralized employment

The following results are obtained from an urban residential model of completely centralized employment, first expounded by Richard Muth: Housing price falls at a decreasing numerical rate with distance from the CBD; the CBD-employed household's housing consumption and location (distance from the CBD) are positively related to preferences for housing, but negatively related to housing price (level and rate of decline with distance) and transportation costs (level, rate of increase with distance, and rate of increase with value-of-time). Some of these results are new and others are generalizations, corrections, or clarifications of Muth's original results.     

The intervening opportunities model of migration: A critique

In this paper it is demonstrated that Stouffer's original intervening opportunities model may easily predict an inverse relationship between total opportunities and total migration. This “perverse” prediction, it is argued, is damaging to the credibility of the original intervening opportunities hypothesis.     

Animal spirits and unemployment: a disequilibrium analysis

The past decade has seen a number of advances in modelling disequilibrium dynamics. This paper draws on separate approaches to disequilibrium dynamics to demonstrate a Keynesian result concerning the formal relevance of “animal spirits” in production economies. Specifically, it is shown that a parameter that can be associated with the “animal spirits” of firms is crucial to the stability of full employment equilibrium in a production economy. This approach to “animal spirits” is different to that taken by recent New Keynesian DSGE-type models, but similar in spirit to “Old Keynesian” approaches, including that of the General Theory. The corollary of the main conclusion is that price flexibility is not a sufficient condition for convergence on full employment equilibrium.     

A socio-economic activity distribution model for nonincorporated minor civil divisions; The case of Maryland

Planners and administrators alike increasingly recognize the need for a quantitative tool that could be used to evaluate the effects of policies and other socio-economic attributes on the level of activities in non-incorporated subcounty areas of the State. In this paper, a quantitative model that could be used for such a purpose in presented.To overcome the problem of insufficiency of census data, temporal administrative data were collected for 224 Minor Civil Divisions or Election Districts (MCD's or ED's) of 20 counties of the State of Maryland from eclectric sources and then processed through utilization of University of Maryland multi-variate computer programs. Regressional equations were then constructed for a host of socio-economic activities (e.g. population, employment, etc.). The outcome of this endeavor supports a proposition advocated by the author in an earlier working paper (June 1979) namely that variables denoting such activities and their respective attributes could be obtained by processing administrative data which is tabulated periodically by county, State and public utility organizations.Although only the general model is presented hereafter, the results obtained in this research endeavor reinforce the idea that a family of models rather than a single general model should be constructed for various types of MCD's of the State (e.g. rural and urban). Moreover, the results seem to support ideas advocated by the author [13] and Hill [11] in their respective studies that the equations of the model could be improved even further by transforming them into a “Semiendogenous” form.The model in its present form could be used as a tool for carrying out an impact analysis study. For instance, the impact of sewer and water facilities as well as land use policies on building permits could be examined through the utilization of this model. Another example of its applicability is the examination of employment opportunity impact on population or the average price of dwelling units. Although all needed data were assembled, to use the model as a forecasting tool requires consultation with county planning officials concerning future policies (e.g. land use, sewer/water) and some improvement of the mode(s).     

Implications for food production potential of future urban expansion in Ontario

The paper describes the application of an evaluation system to assess the flexibility that would exist in the use of Ontario's agricultural land resources under alternative urban growth scenarios. A programming method is employed, but the analysis does not yield a “best” or “predicted” allocation of land use; rather, the system gauges the degree to which options in the use of land are affected by changes in conditions, and identifies those land areas which are strategically important for particular uses given the specified conditions. The conditions are specified to reflect possible patterns of urban and exurban development, both with and without policy controls. The analysis provides evaluations of both the pressures on the land resources if food production requirements are to be met, and the importance of particular land units for agriculture if the requirements are to be met, under the alternative urban growth scenarios.     

Econometric issues in interpreting Mills' estimates of urban density gradients

Mills has estimated a first order, autoregressive distributed lag model of the process of adaptation of urban density gradients. The error term in such equations estimated by ordinary least squares is likely autocorrelated, biasing upward the estimated coefficient of the lagged dependent variable. A specification error may be concealed, with autocorrelation in the error term resulting in overestimates of the length of the adjusted lag. Longer time series samples will be required if the nature of the lagged adjustment processes and the error term are to be simultaneously estimated.     

PRINCIPLES FOR THE IMPLEMENTATION OF A PEDESTRIAN PLAN IN MEDIUM SIZE CITIES

In order to contribute to the effective humanization of the contemporary city and in line with the sustainability of urban areas, this paper focuses on primary pedestrian areas aiming to investigate and demonstrate the benefits of organization and the essential conditions of implementing “pedestrian networks”. The realization of its qualifying character in the urban environment should specify:

• ? The challenge of reinterpreting the idea of the city, due to the transformation of associated “urban forms” and “lifestyles”;
• ? The need to structure the territory, in order to promote the understanding and ownership of the different places that compose a city;
• ? The ability to generate synergies, as a means of affirming the “local” in the context of the “global” opportunities and threats.

It is, therefore, disciplinary useful to test a methodological urban planning “process” with the aim to design and manage “pedestrian networks”, applicable in a range of cities considered of medium size, according to the European classification mainly based on population criteria.     

The influence of natural hazards on urban housing location

The effects of natural hazards on urban housing location are investigated, using as an example seismic damage. The seismic damage function is allowed to arbitrarily vary in two-dimensional (r, θ) space rather than the usual one-dimensional models of Mills, Muth, Alonso, etc. Damage is assumed to only affect capital inputs (i.e., the structure), not land. Under the influence of expected damage, the population and CBD (treated as a point) are seen to shift toward lower expected damage. It is found that the relative importance of damage increases as the capital productivity parameter (b) of the Cobb-Douglas production function increases.     

Wage gradients,rent gradients,and the price elasticity of demand for housing: An empirical investigation

As developed in Muth's “Cities and Housing,” attainment of locational equilibrium within an urban area implies a necessary functional correspondence between wage and price gradients and the compensated price elasticity of demand for housing. In this paper estimates of the rent and wage gradients are utilized to generate price-elasticity estimates via this equilibrium correspondence. The Box-Cox transformation technique is used with data from the metropolitan Chicago area to test for the functional forms of the wage and rent gradients. The optimal maximum-likelihood functional forms for both gradients yield a price-elasticity estimate of ?0.40.     

A compositional approach to regional socio-economic impact assessment

Economic and social impact assessments of developmental initiatives are often undertaken by independent analysts and rarely is an integral approach adopted. It is here argued that economic impact assessment can facilitate social impact assessment and simultaneously improve the accuracy of employment estimation, by distinguishing between various socio-demographic groups. In turn, the assessment of the socio-demographic composition of the local community has direct implications for the accuracy of the economic impact assessment. A methodology for a more integrated approach to economic and social impact assessment is developed herein and is empirically estimated. Compared to traditional, independent approaches, it is held that this approach yields improved estimates of changes in a community's employment and socio-demographic structure.     

A paradigm for location and multidimensional problems in planning

Several theories, concepts, methods, or alternatively, “paradigms” have been suggested for the explanation and prediction of the location behavior of urban households. Increasingly, hwoever, “behavioral” approaches to the explanation of the dimensions of “choice” and/or exploration of alternative hypotheses have been cumbersome in the “mechanistic” paradigms of the social system and its related subsystems.An alternative paradigm of Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) is proposed to explore alternative structural specification hypotheses (sequential versus simultaneous) on the grouping and changing relative importance of “instrumental” and “non-instrumental” factors affecting location decision-making. AHP estimates of the “locational shares” of an urban (corridor) zonal population provide a paradigmatic basis for behavioral, vis-a-vis environmental, explanation of location decision-processes in a methodologically efficient, robust and theoretically inclusive framework of hierarchy systems.This paradigm is proposed for locational analysis requiring an effective integration of multilevel, environmental (contextual) and behavioral measures of relative importance, with limited data, and, for multidimensional problems in planning and policy-making, formidably requiring the integration of positive with normative analysis of systems.     

Integration of technical and value issues in air quality policy formation: A case study

This paper deals with the problem of air quality policy making in urban areas where the automobile is the major source of air pollution. A quantitative method for integrating technical and social value issues is outlined and applied to air quality policy formation in Denver, Colorado. The implications of this study for quantitative analysis in policy analysis in general are discussed.The study centers on decisions to be made now for managing the future air quality in the Denver metropolitan region. At the time of the study Denver was in violation of the National Ambient Air Quality Standards for two gaseous pollutants—carbon monoxide and ozone. Three elements of the study are described—structural analysis, quantitative analysis and contextual analysis.The conclusions of the study are: (1) Under 1977 Clean Air Act standards, strategies intended to reduce emissions from automobiles will assure attainment of ambient standards in Denver by approx. 1990. The impacts of these strategies upon the valued dimensions of health effects, cost and lifestyle appear acceptable. The acceptability of adding regulations to accomplish an earlier date of attainment, such as transportation controls, could not be resolved. (2) If federal emissions standards are relaxed, Denver cannot meet ambient standards without making difficult tradeoffs among health effects, economic factors, and citizens' mobility and convenience. (3) Continued increase in the use of diesel automobiles will substantially worsen Denver's “brown cloud” problem. Our analysis also indicates that a “do nothing” option was not acceptable. The choice of a strategy for reducing particulates from diesels involves tradeoffs among health, haze and cost.     

The economics of urban yard space: An “implicit-market” model for housing attributes

A theoretical housing model is developed embodying the approach of the recent hedonic price literature. Instead of focusing on a scalar “housing service” consumption measure, the model portrays housing as a commodity with two attributes: floor space and yard space. Developers react to a consumer bid-rent function, which relates dwelling rent to floor space, yard space, and location, in choosing the profit-maximizing characteristics of their housing complexes. The spatial behavior of the developer's choice variables is investigated (an interesting question is whether yards are larger farther from the urban center), and a comparative static analysis of the housing market equilibrium is presented.