A spatial analysis of international stock market linkages

We employ spatial econometrics techniques to investigate to what extent countries’ economic and geographical relations affect their stock market co-movements. Among the relations that we analyze, bilateral trade proves to be best suited to capture co-variations in returns. We find a strong effect of a unit shock to three regionally dominant countries, namely the US, the UK, and Japan, on other countries through the trade linkage. The degree of stock market dependence increases and the importance of proximity decreases over time and during recessions. We also analyze several regional crises and find a large impact of Thailand on its trade neighbors during the Asian crisis.     

Cultural influences on home bias and international diversification by institutional investors

We investigate determinants of international diversification in institutionally managed portfolios from more than 60 countries. Survey-based country-specific variables on cross-cultural behaviors help to explain both home bias and diversification among foreign equities. In particular, investment funds from countries characterized by higher uncertainty avoidance behavior display greater home bias and are less diversified in their foreign holdings. Portfolios from countries with higher levels of masculinity and long-term orientation display lower levels of home bias, and portfolios from countries with higher levels of masculinity are more diversified abroad. Portfolios from culturally distant countries invest less abroad and underweight culturally distant target markets. The economic significance of cultural variables is high and comparable in magnitude to geographical distance, a consistent influence on foreign diversification in prior studies. Culture impacts investor behavior directly and not merely though indirect channels such as legal and regulatory framework.     

Optimal asset allocation under linear loss aversion

We study the asset allocation of a linear loss-averse (LA) investor and compare it to the more traditional mean-variance (MV) and conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) investors. First we derive conditions under which the LA problem is equivalent to the MV and CVaR problems and solve analytically the two-asset problem of the LA investor for a risk-free and a risky asset. Then we run simulation experiments to study properties of the optimal LA and MV portfolios under more realistic assumptions. We find that under asymmetric dependence LA portfolios outperform MV portfolios, provided investors are sufficiently loss-averse and dependence is large. Finally, using 13 EU and US assets, we implement the trading strategy of a linear LA investor who reallocates his/her portfolio on a monthly basis. We find that LA portfolios clearly outperform MV and CVaR portfolios and that incorporating a dynamic update of the LA parameters significantly improves the performance of LA portfolios.     

Evaluating a non-linear asset pricing model on international data

The paper analyses the ability of a non-linear asset pricing model suggested by Dittmar [Dittmar, R.F., 2002. Non-linear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and the cross-section of equity returns. Journal of Finance 57, 369-403] to explain the returns on international value and growth portfolios. For comparison we use competing pricing models such as the ICAPM, the exchange rate risk augmented ICAPM and the international two-factor model proposed by Fama and French [Fama, E.F., French, K. R., 1998. Value versus growth: The international evidence. Journal of Finance 53, 1975-1999]. All models are evaluated both unconditionally and conditionally. The models are evaluated by applying the Hansen and Jagannathan distance measure, and we also employ several alternative measures to ensure a robust comparison of the models. We find support for the model of Dittmar [Dittmar, R.F., 2002. Non-linear pricing kernels, kurtosis preference, and the cross-section of equity returns. Journal of Finance 57, 369-403]. Evaluated conditionally, this model successfully passes all the different diagnostic tests performed in the analysis.     

Do local analysts know more? A cross-country study of the performance of local analysts and foreign analysts

This paper examines whether analysts resident in a country make more precise earnings forecasts for firms in that country than non-resident analysts. Using a sample of 32 countries, we find an economically and statistically significant local analyst advantage even after controlling for firm and analyst characteristics. The local advantage is high in countries where earnings are smoothed more, less information is disclosed by firms, and firm idiosyncratic information explains a smaller fraction of stock returns. It is negatively related to whether a firm has foreign assets and to market participation by foreign investors and by institutions, and positively related to holdings by insiders. The extent to which U.S. investors underweight a country's stocks is positively related to that country's local analyst advantage.     

Characteristics determining the efficiency of foreign banks in Australia

The factors determining foreign bank efficiency are investigated using a three stage research method. It is found that host market incumbency reduces efficiency of foreign banks in Australia, resulting in over use of inputs. Factors underlying the limited global advantage hypothesis of Berger et al. [Berger, Allen N., DeYoung, Robert, Genay, Hesna, Udell, Gregory F., 2000. Globalisation of financial institutions: Evidence from cross-border banking performance. Brookings-Wharton Papers on Financial Service 3, 23–120] are identified, in that nationality specific factors represented by dummy variables are not significant once other relevant effects are controlled for. Parent profitability is not found to result in increased host nation efficiency, while parent credit rating effects are mixed. Some evidence is presented that banks from more financially sophisticated nations are more efficient. The implications of these results are explored from the perspectives of bank management and bank regulators.     

The asset growth effect: Insights from international equity markets

Firms with higher asset growth rates subsequently experience lower stock returns in international equity markets, consistent with the U.S. evidence. This negative effect of asset growth on returns is stronger in more developed capital markets and markets where stocks are more efficiently priced, but is unrelated to country characteristics representing limits to arbitrage, investor protection, and accounting quality. The evidence suggests that the cross-sectional relation between asset growth and stock return is more likely due to an optimal investment effect than due to overinvestment, market timing, or other forms of mispricing.     

The wisdom of crowds: Mutual fund investors’ aggregate asset allocation decisions

We find that the aggregate asset allocation decisions of US mutual fund investors depend on economic conditions. Both anticipated economic downturns and periods of turmoil lead investors to direct flow away from risky equity funds and towards lower-risk money market funds. These patterns are markedly stronger for investors in low cost and low turnover funds relative to investors in high cost and high turnover funds, consistent with sophisticated investors being more sensitive to changing conditions. Benchmarked against a buy-and-hold strategy, these asset allocation strategies reduce risk without degrading the risk-return trade-off. Our evidence suggests that individual investors, often dismissed as noise traders, collectively react to economic signals in a sensible manner when determining asset allocations.     

Testing for rational bubbles in the presence of structural breaks: Evidence from nonstationary panels

This paper presents new results on the rational bubbles hypothesis for a panel of 18 OECD countries using the model developed by Campbell (2000). We provide an analysis of international data that exploits increased power deriving from the panel unit root and cointegration methodology, together with the flexibility of allowing explicitly for multiple endogenous structural breaks in the individual series. Differently from the time series methodology, the panel data approach allows for a global analysis of the financial crashes that are related to rational bubbles. We find strong evidence in favor of bubbles phenomena.     

A study on long-run inefficiency levels of a panel dynamic cost frontier under the framework of forward-looking rational expectations

This paper aims to provide a theoretical underpinning of the dynamic efficiency model pioneered by [Ahn, S.C., Good, D.H., Sickles, R.C., 2000. Estimation of long-run inefficiency levels: A dynamic frontier approach. Econometric Reviews 19, 461–492]. In the context of a quadratic loss function this paper formulates a multi-period forward-looking rational expectations model on the evolution of the technical inefficiency level, which correctly produces a dynamic panel data model. The model is illustrated using panel data of 112 French banks. Encouraging evidence of superiority in favor of the model is reached. Substantial cost inefficiency prevails in this industry, where the constituent banks are characterized as having volatile adjustment speeds toward their long-run steady states. The sample banks exhibit increasing returns to scale and product-mix economies.     

Technical analysis: An asset allocation perspective on the use of moving averages

In this paper, we analyze the usefulness of technical analysis, specifically the widely employed moving average trading rule from an asset allocation perspective. We show that, when stock returns are predictable, technical analysis adds value to commonly used allocation rules that invest fixed proportions of wealth in stocks. When uncertainty exists about predictability, which is likely in practice, the fixed allocation rules combined with technical analysis can outperform the prior-dependent optimal learning rule when the prior is not too informative. Moreover, the technical trading rules are robust to model specification, and they tend to substantially outperform the model-based optimal trading strategies when the model governing the stock price is uncertain.     

Inflation risk and international asset returns

We show that inflation risk is priced in international asset returns. We analyze inflation risk in a framework that encompasses the International Capital Asset Pricing Model (ICAPM) of Adler and Dumas (1983). In contrast to the extant empirical literature on the ICAPM, we relax the assumption that inflation rates are constant. We estimate and test a conditional version of the model for the G5 countries (France, Germany, Japan, the UK, and the US) over the period 1975–1998 and find evidence of statistically and economically significant prices of inflation risk (in addition to priced nominal exchange rate risk). Our results imply a rejection of the restrictions imposed by the ICAPM. In an extension of our analysis to 2003, we show that even after the termination of nominal exchange rate fluctuations in the euro area in 1999, differences in inflation rates across countries entail non-trivial real exchange rate risk premia.     

Predictability of currency carry trades and asset pricing implications

This paper studies the time series predictability of currency carry trades, constructed by selecting currencies to be bought or sold against the US dollar, based on forward discounts. Changes in a commodity index, currency volatility and, to a lesser extent, a measure of liquidity predict in-sample the payoffs of dynamically re-balanced carry trades, as evidenced by individual and joint p-values in monthly predictive regressions at horizons up to six months. Predictability is further supported through out-of-sample metrics, and a predictability-based decision rule produces sizable improvements in the Sharpe ratios and skewness profile of carry trade payoffs. Our evidence also indicates that predictability can be traced to the long legs of the carry trades and their currency components. We test the theoretical restrictions that an asset pricing model, with average currency returns and the mimicking portfolio for the innovations in currency volatility as risk factors, imposes on the coefficients in predictive regressions.     

Country-specific equity market characteristics and foreign equity portfolio allocation

Do country-specific equity market characteristics explain variations in foreign equity portfolio allocation? We study this question using comprehensive foreign equity portfolio holdings data and different measures of country-specific equity market factors for 36 host countries. Employing panel data econometric estimations, our investigation shows that foreign investors prefer to invest more in larger and highly visible developed markets which are more liquid, exhibit a higher degree of market efficiency and have lower trading costs. The findings imply that by improving the preconditions necessary for well-functioning capital markets, policymakers should be able to attract higher levels of foreign equity portfolio investments.     

A corporate governance explanation of the A-B share discount in China

B-shares listed in China are traded at substantial discounts to their corresponding A-shares although they have identical rights. We offer a governance explanation and suggest that relative to domestic investors, foreign investors care more about a firm’s governance quality. Results are supportive, as the B-share price discount is higher for firms that have weaker governance characterized by 1) higher ownership concentration, 2) ineffective boards with a higher proportion of directors appointed by the parent company, 3) lower dividend payouts, and 4) higher levels of information asymmetry.     

Causes and consequences of short-term institutional herding

This paper provides new evidence on the causes and consequences of herding by institutional investors. Using a comprehensive database of every transaction made by financial institutions in the German stock market, we show that institutions exhibit herding behavior on a daily basis. Herding intensity depends on stock characteristics including past returns and volatility. Return reversals indicate a destabilizing impact of herds on stock prices in the short term. Results from panel regressions suggest that herding is mainly unintentional and partly driven by the use of similar risk models. Our findings confirm the importance of macro-prudential aspects for banking regulation.     

Convergent synergies in the global market for corporate control

We investigate the informational role of the takeover premium as a forward looking price to expected synergies in the global market for corporate control. We find that premiums paid in the global market for corporate control are clustered in waves and driven to some extent by the US premium. International takeover premiums have become more responsive to US premiums as the globalization process evolved over time. Short-run divergent dynamics due to idiosyncratic or country-specific factors have become less severe, which suggests that expected synergies have become increasingly integrated in the global market for corporate control. Furthermore, we find that the region’s takeover premiums typically become more responsive to US takeover premiums when US economic conditions are relatively weak, when the US monetary policy is restrictive, when US credit risk is high, and when the region’s corporate governance (as measured by legal system quality and accounting quality) is high.     

Optimal tax-timing and asset allocation when tax rebates on capital losses are limited

This article studies the portfolio problem with realization-based capital gain taxation when limited amounts of losses qualify for tax rebate payments, as is the case under current US tax law. When the tax rate applicable to realized losses exceeds that on realized capital gains, it can be optimal to realize capital gains immediately and pay capital gain taxes to regain the option to use potential future losses against a higher tax rate. This incentive adds an entirely new and as yet unstudied dimension to the portfolio problem. It causes risk averse investors to hold more equity and attain higher welfare levels than is the case when trading under a tax system that seeks to collect the same amount of taxes, but does not allow for tax rebate payments. This is because the benefit to these investors from having their losses subsidized is greater than the suffering from having profits taxed at a higher rate.     

Catering effects in corporate dividend policy: The international evidence

This study tests for the international presence of dividend catering across a sample of twenty-three countries. We find evidence of catering among firms incorporated in common law countries but not for those in civil law nations. Catering persists even after controlling for the effect of the firm’s lifecycle. We conclude that when the legal regime and its accompanying set of investor protections permit, investors force dividends from managers, but they also attempt to extract such payouts indirectly by placing a high value on dividend paying firms. The relative failure of civil law firms to cater might be explained by idiosyncratic behaviors in the consumption of the private benefits of control or a lack of interest in responding to temporary market misevaluations of their equity.     

Beyond Sharpe ratio: Optimal asset allocation using different performance ratios

As the assumption of normality in return distributions is relaxed, classic Sharpe ratio and its descendants become questionable tools for constructing optimal portfolios. In order to overcome the problem, asymmetrical parameter-dependent performance ratios have been recently proposed in the literature. The aim of this note is to develop an integrated decision aid system for asset allocation based on a toolkit of eleven performance ratios. A multi-period portfolio optimization up covering a fixed horizon is set up: at first, bootstrapping of asset return distributions is assessed to recover all ratios calculations; at second, optimal rebalanced-weights are achieved; at third, optimal final wealth is simulated for each ratios. Eventually, we make a robustness test on the best performance ratios. Empirical simulations confirm the weakness in forecasting of Sharpe ratio, whereas asymmetrical parameter-dependent ratios, such as the Generalized Rachev, Sortino–Satchell and Farinelli–Tibiletti ratios show satisfactorily robustness.