Is the Renminbi a safe haven?

We investigate the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi in the offshore market against currencies that the safe haven literature typically considers as the traditional safe haven currency candidates. Our sample spans the February 2011 to May 2017 period. Band spectral regression models enable us to capture that the relationship between market uncertainty and the relative value of the Renminbi is frequency dependent. While we find evidence of some degree of safe haven currency behavior of the Renminbi during the early part of our sample, our findings do not support the suggestion that the Renminbi is currently a safe haven currency or that the Renminbi is progressing towards safe haven currency status.     

Is gold a safe haven against equity market investment in emerging and developing countries?

The hedge and safe haven properties of gold in advanced economies’ financial markets are well documented in the literature. Studies of how this issue relates to emerging markets and developing countries are, however, very limited. This paper aims to fill this gap by empirically analyzing the hedge and safe haven properties of gold against equity market investment for a large group of emerging and developing countries from the perspective of both domestic and foreign investors. We also check whether our findings differ in the post-global crisis period. Our results show that for domestic investors, gold is both a hedge and a safe haven in most of these countries. This result also holds in the post-2008 crisis period. In addition, when falls in equity markets become more severe, gold acts as a safe haven in a larger set of countries for both domestic and foreign investors.     

Is gold the best hedge and a safe haven under changing stock market volatility?

We evaluate the role of gold and other precious metals relative to volatility (Volatility Index (VIX)) as a hedge (negatively correlated with stocks) and safe haven (negatively correlated with stocks in extreme stock market declines) using data from the US stock market. Using daily data from November 1995 to November 2010, we find that gold, unlike other precious metals, serves as a hedge and a weak safe haven for US stock market. However, we find that VIX serves as a very strong hedge and a strong safe haven during our sample period. We also find that in periods of extremely low or high volatility, gold does not have a negative correlation with the US stock market. Our results show that VIX is a superior hedging tool and serves as a better safe haven than gold during our sample period. We highlight the practical significance of our results for financial market participants by conducting a portfolio analysis.     

Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management

We assess the role of gold as a safe haven or hedge against the US dollar (USD) using copulas to characterize average and extreme market dependence between gold and the USD. For a wide set of currencies, our empirical evidence revealed (1) positive and significant average dependence between gold and USD depreciation, consistent with the fact that gold can act as hedge against USD rate movements, and (2) symmetric tail dependence between gold and USD exchange rates, indicating that gold can act as an effective safe haven against extreme USD rate movements. We evaluate the implications for mixed gold-currency portfolios, finding evidence of diversification benefits and downside risk reduction that confirms the usefulness of gold in currency portfolio risk management.     

How safe are the safe haven assets?

The aim of this paper is to examine which of the assets commonly believed to be safe havens do, in fact, protect investors during periods of severe financial instability. Using a broad dataset of 32 assets over the period of 1964–2014, we examine the relationship of these assets with the US equity market during financial crises to determine which of them are safe havens for US investors, hedges, or speculations. We find that the US Treasuries and Japanese yen are the strongest safe haven investments in months characterized by large declines in market value or excessive volatility. We also document that the recent global financial crisis had significantly negative ramifications on the safe haven properties of many of these assets. Our out-of-sample analyses show that while, in general, predictive market exposures are negatively correlated with asset returns in strong market downturns, those of even the strongest safe haven assets are often statistically insignificant.     

Are gold,USD, and Bitcoin hedge or safe haven against stock? The implication for risk management

This study investigates whether gold, USD, and Bitcoin are hedge and safe haven assets against stock and if they are useful in diversifying downside risk for international stock markets. We propose a combined GO-GARCH-EVT-copula approach to examine the hedge and safe haven properties of gold, USD, and Bitcoin. We then examine the attractiveness of these assets in reducing stock portfolio risk by using downside risk measures estimated by the proposed approach and other competing models. We also evaluate the relative performance of the proposed model in reducing downside risk with the competing models. The findings of the study indicate that the USD is the most valuable hedge and safe haven asset closely followed by gold, while Bitcoin is the least valuable. It is also observed that the proposed combined approach performs best in reducing the portfolio downside risk. The findings of this study are of significance for portfolio managers and individual investors who wish to protect the portfolio value during market turmoil.     

Is gold a hedge against inflation? A wavelet time-scale perspective

Among the many presumed characteristics of gold, the ability to act as an enduring store of value is frequently noted. In this paper, the ability of gold to dynamically hedge against inflation is examined for various holding periods using the continuous wavelet transformation. Gold is first established as both a short- and long-term hedge against realized inflation for a number of developed economies. Dynamic analysis demonstrates that these hedging properties are not limited to a single historical cohort. Next, gold is shown to comove with unexpected inflation across all countries examined, albeit with some variation in the direction of the relationship. Finally, the capacity of both gold futures and gold stocks to act as a hedge against inflation is demonstrated.     

Is there an employee-based gender gap in informal financial markets? International evidence

We study the impact of female production workers on firms' access to trade credits across the world. Using two sources of plausibly exogenous variations in gender bias and a difference-in-differences framework, we document that firms with more female production workers have less access to trade credits in countries with stronger gender beliefs that favor males. This relationship is largely driven by firms in industries with unexpected credit shortages and industries dominated by males. Since female firms rely more on informal finance, this study is relevant for policies that direct female firms towards formal credit markets in highly gender-biased places.     

Are cryptocurrencies a safe haven for equity markets? An international perspective from the COVID-19 pandemic

The COVID-19 pandemic provided the first widespread bear market conditions since the inception of cryptocurrencies. We test the widely mooted safe haven properties of Bitcoin, Ethereum and Tether from the perspective of international equity index investors. Bitcoin and Ethereum are not a safe haven for the majority of international equity markets examined, with their inclusion adding to portfolio downside risk. Only investors in the Chinese CSI 300 index realized modest downside risk benefits (contingent on very limited allocations to Bitcoin or Ethereum). As Tether successfully maintained its peg to the US dollar during the COVID-19 turmoil, it acted as a safe haven investment for all of the international indices examined. We caveat the latter findings with a warning that Tether's dollar peg has not always been maintained, with evidence of impaired downside risk hedging properties earlier in our sample.     

How credible is a too-big-to-fail policy? International evidence from market discipline

This paper analyzes in an international sample of banks from 104 countries if the sensitivity of the cost of deposits to bank risk varies across banks depending on their systemic and absolute size. We analyze a period before the 2007 financial crisis and control for endogeneity of bank size, intervention policies in past banking crises, and soundness of countries’ public finances. Our results are consistent with the predominance of the too-big-to-fail hypothesis, although this effect is stronger in countries that did not impose losses on depositors in past banking crises and in countries with sounder public finances.     

Are safe haven assets really safe during the 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic?

This study evaluates the safe-haven role of twelve assets against the US stock market during the 2008 global financial crisis (GFC) and the COVID-19 pandemic. Our results show that silver and the Islamic stock index were safe havens during the 2008 GFC, and the Islamic stock index and Tether have been safe havens during COVID-19. We observe that the Islamic stock index and Tether have emerged as strong new safe havens. However, our supplementary analysis reveals that gold and Bitcoin still exhibit safe-haven behavior during severe market downturns. Overall, our findings suggest that safe-haven assets may vary over time.     

International evidence on fiscal solvency: Is fiscal policy “responsible”?

We conduct a cross-country empirical analysis of fiscal solvency based on dynamic stochastic general equilibrium conditions. The results show evidence of fiscal solvency, in the form of a robust positive conditional response of the primary balance to changes in public debt, in panels for emerging and industrial economies and in a combined panel. Emerging economies show a stronger response and hence converge to lower mean debt-output ratios, as observed in the data. The results are weaker for countries with debt ratios exceeding panel means and medians. Hence, we can separate countries where fiscal solvency holds from those where it remains in doubt.     

The 2008 global financial crisis and COVID-19 pandemic: How safe are the safe haven assets?

We compare the performance of safe-haven assets during the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) and COVID-19 pandemic. First, regarding the GFC, we find, intermediate (weak) safe haven evidence for US dollar, Swiss franc and T-bonds (Gold, Silver and T-bills). Second, with regard to COVID, we find gold is very risky in some settings, while silver has become extremely risky. Collectively, our findings suggest that the character of safe-haven assets has changed between the crises. Therefore, investors should exercise extreme care when investing in potential safe-haven assets during times of market stress.     

What determines fund performance persistence? International evidence

We study performance persistence across a global sample of equity mutual funds from 27 countries. In contrast to the existing U.S.‐based evidence, we find that net performance persistence is present in the majority of fund industries, suggesting that fund manager skill is commonplace rather than a rarity. Consistent with the intuition that more competition in the mutual fund industry makes remaining a winner fund less likely but keeping a loser fund at the bottom of the performance ranks more probable, we show that competitiveness explains the cross‐sectional variation in performance persistence.     

Is there a J-curve for Azerbaijan? New evidence from industry-level analysis

This paper estimates the J-curve for Azerbaijan using quarterly industry-level data over the 2000–2009 period. Empirical results show that in 3 of the 10 strategic industries there is strong evidence for the fulfilment of the Marshall–Lerner condition, as the trade balance improves in the long run in reaction to a currency devaluation. In most industries the J-curve pattern is observed in the short run. All 10 cases exhibit long-run cointegration and are stable according to the CUSUM and CUSUMSQ stability tests. These findings are largely consistent with the existing literature on the Azerbaijani J-curve and carry important policy implications.     

Does national culture affect corporate innovation? International evidence

We examine whether and how national culture influences corporate innovation using a newly available comprehensive database on innovation around the world. After controlling for the impacts of formal institutions, and firm-level and country-level variables, we find that culture has relevance for innovation: The probability of a firm innovating is higher in individualistic, indulgent, and long-term oriented societies, as well as in cultures with less power distance, less uncertainty avoidance, and less masculine cultures. In the innovative firms subsample, we continue to find the same significant impact of culture on firms' innovation performance/quality. Our results are robust to endogeneity concerns, different model specifications, alternative measures of innovation and culture, and different subsample analyses.     

Gold or Bitcoin,which is the safe haven during the COVID-19 pandemic?

This study compares the dynamic spillover effects of gold and Bitcoin prices on the oil and stock market during the COVID-19 pandemic via time-varying parameter vector autoregression. Both time-varying and time-point results indicate that gold is a safe haven for oil and stock markets during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, unlike gold, Bitcoin's response is the opposite, rejecting the safe haven property. Further analysis shows that the safe-haven effects of gold on the stock market become stronger when the pandemic critically spreads.     

Do institutional investors drive corporate social responsibility? International evidence

This paper assesses whether shareholders drive the environmental and social (E&S) performance of firms worldwide. Across 41 countries, institutional ownership is positively associated with E&S performance with additional tests suggesting this relation is causal. Institutions are motivated by both financial and social returns. Investors increase firms’ E&S performance following shocks that reveal financial benefits to E&S improvements. In cross section, investors increase firms’ E&S performance when they come from countries with a strong community belief in the importance of E&S issues, but not otherwise. As such, these institutional investors transplant their social norms regarding E&S issues around the world.     

Has stock exchange demutualization improved market quality? International evidence

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - We investigate the market quality effects of stock exchange demutualization and find that demutualized exchanges have achieved significant...     

Does corporate social responsibility impact equity risk? International evidence

Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting - Based on a large panel of listed firms from 52 countries in the period 2002–2020, we investigate the relationship between corporate social...