Introduction to Retail Payments: Mapping Out the Road Ahead

This article introduces four papers that were presented at a payments conference “Retail Payments: Mapping Out the Road Ahead,” which was held at De Nederlandsche Bank in Amsterdam in April of 2016. These papers focus on various behavioral aspects of consumers and merchants in their choice and acceptance of payment instruments and payment activity. End-user behavior has implications for how the retail payment landscape is likely to evolve and, therefore, will need to be considered by policymakers charged with overseeing the development of retail payments.     

Payment economics: studying the mechanics of exchange

The five papers that follow this essay were presented at the Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond's Conference on Payment Economics held October 23–24, 2000, in Williamsburg, Virginia. The conference was motivated by the convergence of lines of research in monetary and banking theory that are focused on the institutional arrangements that facilitate exchange. At the same time, central bank policymakers concerned about the efficiency implications of their involvement in and regulation of clearing and settlement arrangements increasingly seek an economic understanding of these activities. It appears that a distinct and coherent field of inquiry is emerging, focused on the mechanics of exchange. This field, which we call payment economics, studies both the instruments agents use to make payments and the central role of bank intermediation in facilitating the use of private liabilities in exchange.     

What is in it for us? Network effects and bank payment innovation

The developed world exhibits substantial but poorly understood differences in the efficiency and quality of low value payment services. This paper compares payment arrangements in the UK, Norway, Sweden, and Finland, and discusses the impact of network effects on incentives to adopt new payments technology. A model is presented, in which private benefits for investment in shared inter-bank payments infrastructure are weak. In contrast, due to ‘account externalities’, there are strong incentives for investment in intra-bank payment systems. These two features, distinguishing bank payments from other network industries, can help explain some of the observed cross-country differences in payment arrangements.     

The Effect of Mandatory Extraction Payment Disclosures on Corporate Payment and Investment Policies Abroad

I examine how mandatory extraction payment disclosures (EPD)—a policy solution intended to discourage corporate payment avoidance in the oil, gas, and mining industries—affect fiscal revenue contributions and investments by multinational firms in foreign host countries. Using the staggered adoption of EPD across firms headquartered in Europe and Canada, I find that disclosing companies increase their payments to host governments, decrease investments, and obtain fewer extraction licenses relative to non-disclosing competitors. These effects are stronger for firms that face a high risk of public shaming, operate in corrupt host countries, and have a high exposure to bribery-prone payments, suggesting that EPD increases the reputational cost of corporate behavior that could be perceived as exploitative. The resulting reallocation of investments from disclosing to non-disclosing firms reduces drilling productivity and resource production in host countries, consistent with uneven disclosure regulation distorting capital allocation.     

Why pay? An introduction to payments economics

This paper surveys the growing literature on payments. We begin by presenting a simple model that illustrates the essential function of payments and how this may be implemented through various arrangements. We show how the basic models of payments have been used to address a variety of microeconomic and macroeconomic policy issues. We then discuss the links between payments economics and other fields, including monetary theory, corporate finance, and industrial organization. We conclude with an overview of the empirical literature and directions for future research.     

Banks’ intraday liquidity management during operational outages: Theory and evidence from the UK payment system

We investigate how settlement banks in the United Kingdom’s large-value payment system deal with intraday liquidity and operational risk. In particular, we are interested in payments behaviour towards a bank that is, for operational reasons, unable to make but able to receive payments. If other banks did not sufficiently monitor their outgoing payments, these operational shocks could impact the entire payment system because the affected bank could absorb liquidity from the system. Our game-theoretic model predicts that only early in the day, when they are uncertain about the payment instructions they might have to execute, banks stop sending payments to a counterparty which is unable to make payments. Using a non-parametric method, we find that this prediction is supported by the data, implying that banks effectively contain the disruption caused by the operational outage: payment flows between healthy banks remain unaffected.     

Substitution of Noncash Payment Instruments for Cash in Europe

The substitution of noncash (check, giro, credit and debit card) payments for cash transactions is of interest for monetary policy and for determining central banks' future seigniorage revenue. We develop a novel method for approximating the share of cash transactions using public information on currency stocks, noncash payments, and card payment technology for 10 European countries. We also provide a forecast of future cash use by country. The trend in cash substitution across countries is quite similar, but the countries themselves are at significantly different stages in this process. The spread of debit and credit card payments has been the key factor behind the substitution away from cash as the use of electronic cash is still in its infancy.     

Price incentives and consumer payment behaviour

In this paper we estimate the effect of particular price incentives on consumer payment patterns using transaction-level data. We find that participation in a loyalty program and access to an interest-free period tend to increase credit card use at the expense of alternative payment methods, such as debit cards and cash. Interestingly though, the pattern of substitution from cash and debit cards differs according to the price incentive. An implication of the findings is that the Reserve Bank reforms of the Australian payments system are likely to have influenced observed payment patterns.     

Payments Settlement: Tiering in Private and Public Systems

What are the benefits provided by a payment system? What are the trade‐offs in public versus private payment systems and in restricted versus open payments arrangements? Modern payment systems encompass a variety of institutional designs with varying degrees of counterparty protection. We develop a framework that allows for an examination and comparison of payment systems, and specification of conditions leading to their adoption. We relate these conditions to the design of present large‐value payment systems (Fedwire, CHIPS, TARGET, etc.).     

The Check's in the Mail: Why the United States Lags in the Adoption of Cost-Saving Electronic Payments

The United States payment system costs around $225 billion annually and checks account for 75% of all noncash payments. Other electronic payment methods (debit cards, automated clearing house direct deposits, and debits) cost only around one third to one half as much as a check. This paper outlines the main reasons why the shift from checks to cheaper electronic payments has been slow, much slower here than in other countries. We also forecast the future use of checks and electronic payments and end by discussing policy initiatives that may speed up this substitution process.     

Using synthetic data to evaluate the impact of RTGS on systemic risk in the Australian payments system

This paper develops a new methodology for allowing researchers outside central banks to test the extent of payment system risk, and applies this methodology to an investigation of the impact that the introduction of real time gross settlement (RTGS) had on systemic risk in the Australian payments system. System-specific ratios are first developed to extract bilateral payment obligations from aggregate payments data in the Australian RTGS system. This synthetic data is then used to generate a deferred net settlement (DNS) system of similar dimensions to those the Australian system would have had, had RTGS not been introduced. Standard default simulation methodology is then applied to test the levels of systemic risk in both this system and the corresponding RTGS system to ascertain the degree to which the introduction of RTGS is likely to have reduced the level of risk. We find that while the level of systemic risk is likely to have been reduced in the Australian case, the size of the effect is small, a finding consistent with the results of payments system studies in other countries.     

Prediction of outstanding payments in a Poisson cluster model

We consider a simple Poisson cluster model for the payment numbers and the corresponding total payments for insurance claims arriving in a given year. Due to the Poisson structure one can give reasonably explicit expressions for the prediction of the payment numbers and total payments in future periods given the past observations of the payment numbers. One can also derive reasonably explicit expressions for the corresponding prediction errors. In the (a, b) class of Panjer's claim size distributions, these expressions can be evaluated by simple recursive algorithms. We study the conditions under which the predictions are asymptotically linear as the number of past payments becomes large. We also demonstrate that, in other regimes, the prediction may be far from linear. For example, a staircase-like pattern may arise as well. We illustrate how the theory works on real-life data, also in comparison with the chain ladder method.     

“Informing” technologies and the World Bank

The current study examines how the World Bank uses an assemblage of information generation and reporting practices, bounded by accounting/financial expertises, to attempt to influence the practices associated with administering education in Latin America. Starting from the premise that these “informing” technologies make the objects of governance knowable in terms of accounting and financial expertises, we consider how accounting practices embedded within lending agreements enable, translate and regulate behaviour. Focusing on the institutional field(s) of basic education, the study offers an in-depth analysis of 15 World Bank loan agreements from across the region, plus 25 interviews with field participants from a single Latin American country. We examine how the World Bank lending agreements install a variety of informing technologies across a network of agents in Latin America. We propose that such agreements can be viewed as technologies of governance in that they diffuse financial technologies to distant fields, re-structure the habitus of these fields, and serve to reaffirm the expertise of the Bank within these fields. In this way, the World Bank increases its legitimacy with other potential borrower countries and ensures its continuing influence.     

The role of saving and investment in exchange rate determination under alternative monetary mechanisms

We argue that the demand for national currencies depends on existing payment arrangements for imports and exports. Therefore, exchange rate movements depend on these arrangement. As a result, the relationship between exchange rate movements and various macroeconomic aggregates — like saving and investment — depend on what we call the monetary mechanism. These points are explicitly demonstrated by studying two extreme monetary mechanisms, one in which all payments are done with the seller's currency and one in which all payments are done with the buyer's currency.     

Payment choice and currency use: Insights from two billion retail transactions

Using three years of transactions data from a discount retailer with thousands of stores, we study payment variation along three dimensions: transaction size and location; weekly and monthly frequencies; and longer time horizons. In each case, we connect empirical patterns to theories of money demand and payments. We show that cross-sectional and time-series payment patterns are consistent with a theoretical framework in which individual consumers choose between cash and non-cash payments based on a threshold transaction size, and we evaluate factors that may account for the variation in threshold distributions across locations and time.     

浅析人民币第二代支付系统对银行流动性管理的影响

中国人民银行第二代支付系统将于今年6月末起在全国各商业银行陆续部署上线。文章回顾了二代系统建设背景,介绍了二代系统的特点和创新的流动性管理功能,分析了其对于商业银行流动性管理的促进作用及带来的挑战,并就商业银行完善内部流动性管理框架和机制建设、提高对二代系统的适应和运用能力提出相关建议。     

Liquidity-saving mechanisms in collateral-based RTGS payment systems

This paper studies banks’ incentives regarding the timing of payment submissions in a collateral-based RTGS payment system and how these incentives change with the introduction of a liquidity-saving mechanism (LSM). We show that an LSM allows banks to economise on collateral while also providing incentives to submit payments earlier. This is because in our model an LSM allows payments to be matched and offset in real time without any or very minimal funds. Under a collateral-based RTGS payment system, introduction of the LSM always improves welfare. The result contrasts with earlier work, which shows that under a fee-based RTGS system, the introduction of an LSM in some circumstances may reduce welfare.     

Size matters: Economies of scale in European payments processing

This paper investigates the existence and extent of economies of scale in the European payment processing industry. It is expected that the creation of a single European payments area (SEPA) will spur consolidations and mergers among European payment processors to more fully realize payment economies of scale. We find evidence for the existence of significant economies of scale using data of eight European payment processors during the years 1990–2005. The analysis also reveals that ownership structure is an important factor to explain cost differences across European processing centers.     

Nonnegotiable shares, controlling shareholders, and dividend payments in China

China has some unique institutional features. For example, the shares of listed firms are segmented into negotiable and nonnegotiable ones. The controlling shareholders, usually connected to the government, hold nonnegotiable shares. We examine how these institutional features affected cash dividend payments in China during the period 1994-2006. We find that dividend payments are positively associated with the proportion of nonnegotiable shares in a firm and the proportion of nonnegotiable shares held by the controlling shareholder; moreover, the 2001 China Securities Regulatory Commission stipulation requiring cash dividend payments does not benefit negotiable shareholders. However, we also find that dividend payments are downside flexible, and controlling shareholders cannot force firms to pay or to pay more dividends when firms' earnings decline significantly. The conventional factors, especially profitability or the capability to pay, still play an important role in determining the dividend policy. The propensity to pay and the payout ratio in China are not high compared to those of other countries.     

Adverse Selection, Moral Hazard, and Outlier Payment Policy

In this article, we analyze the rationale for introducing outlier payments into a prospective payment system for hospitals under adverse selection and moral hazard. The payer has only two instruments: a fixed price for patients whose treatment cost is below a threshold     and a cost-sharing rule for outlier patients. We show that a fixed-price policy is optimal when the hospital is sufficiently benevolent. When the hospital is weakly benevolent, a mixed policy solving a trade-off between rent extraction, efficiency, and dumping deterrence must be preferred. We show how the optimal combination of fixed price and partially cost-based payment depends on the degree of benevolence of the hospital, the social cost of public funds, and the distribution of patients severity.