ESTIMATING THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM AND EQUITY COSTS: NEW WAYS OF LOOKING AT OLD DATA

This article examines three alternative ways of estimating the expected return on the equity market in using the CAPM or some other risk premium model. The three techniques are (1) direct estimation of the average nominal equity return for use as a forecast nominal equity return; (2) estimation of the average real equity return, which can then be added to a forecast inflation rate; and (3) estimation of an average equity risk premium, which is then added to a current risk-free rate. Ibbotson and Sinquefeld's data on annual holding period returns are used to test the validity of their assumption that the equity risk premium follows a random walk and that the third of these approaches is thus the best method.
The paper reaches three major conclusions. First, each of these three techniques involves a bias of some kind. The use of average equity returns as a forecast is subject to risk-free rate and inflation rate biases, while the use of an average equity risk premium is subject to a term premium bias. As a result, only the data can tell us which approach is best. Second, from analyzing equity and bond return data and the trend in interest rates, the author concludes that the term premium bias when using average historic equity risk premium is by far the largest of the three sources of bias. Indeed, the popular practice of adding an historic average equity risk premium to the 30-year Treasury bond rate significantly overstates equity costs. Third, after examining equity rates of return back to 1871, the author concludes that the real equity return seems to follow a process that is close to a random walk and is thus the best of the three techniques to use as a naive forecast.     

AN ASSESSMENT OF THE RISK AND RETURN OF FRENCH COMMON STOCKS

In this paper the relationship is examined between the average return and the risk of a sample of 144 French common stocks which traded continuously over the decade 1969–1979. Although it was found that a negative relationship existed between average return and systematic risk, sufficient evidence could not be gathered to reject the hypothesis that the pricing of French common stocks conforms to the Capital Asset Pricing Model. The nature and implications of the observed negative risk-return trade-off are discussed.     

TIME-SERIES PROPERTIES OF THE EQUITY RISK PREMIUM

In this paper we use time-series models to investigate the presence of autoregression, random variation, and random walk movements of historic equity risk premiums. An autoregressive risk premium is found for 1926–58, but random variation around a much lower risk premium mean is found for 1959–90. This finding is not sensitive to holding-period length, the choice of the risk-free rate proxy, or January/July seasonal effects.     

THE RISK BEHAVIOR OF EQUITY OF FIRMS APPROACHING BANKRUPTCY

The risk behavior of financially distressed companies is studied using the shifting regimes regression model originally suggested by Brown, Durbin, and Evans. In addition, the presence of nonsynchronous trading is detected and the regression model is adjusted accordingly using Dimson's technique. The results reveal that the behavior of systematic risk as firms approach bankruptcy depends to some degree on appropriate identification of periods over which beta is constant and adjusting for nonsynchronous trading. The results also lend support to the importance of skewness and to some extent beta but not unsystematic risk in explaining the security returns of firms approaching bankruptcy. Finally, the behavior of equity risk is examined according to the outcome of the bankruptcy filing.     

CHANGES IN CAPITAL STRUCTURE,NEW EQUITY ISSUES,AND SCALE EFFECTS

This study determines the impact of a new issue of common stock on security holder wealth and the magnitude attributable to transaction costs, tax shield dilution, wealth transfers, and informational content. The empirical results indicate that shareholders of firms announcing new equity issues experience significant, abnormal, negative returns. The per share transaction cost accounts for 22.6 percent of the observed abnormal return. The tax shield dilution effect accounts for 7.8 percent. No evidence of a wealth transfer effect is found. Thus, approximately 70 percent of the abnormal return can be attributed to new unfavorable information that becomes available to the market.