铁路运营活动与运输成本关系研究

通过分析铁路运输支出的性态特征,借鉴世界银行铁路成本模型,结合我国铁路运营生产的特征,建立反映"业务一成本"特征的成本模型:确定模型的要素构件、分解运输成本、估计单位耗费、确定各成本项目金额、汇总全部运输成本。"业务-成本"模型能够体现铁路运营生产的特点,反映铁路运营活动的变化对运营成本的影响,有助于管理决策者的日常决策。     

关于交通社会成本分析的思考

交通社会成本在世界各国交通政策制定中发挥着越来越大的作用。通过阐释交通社会成本外部因素定量化分析的思路,以及社会成本在欧盟国家的应用,对我国铁路的社会成本进行了分析,在充分认识到铁路社会成本优势的基础上,提出应加强铁路项目全过程的社会成本研究,争取国家对铁路建设和运营的优惠政策。     

铁路物流基地网络化运营组织优化研究

为了提升铁路物流基地网络化运营组织效率,阐述铁路物流基地网络化运营组织现状,分析铁路物流基地网络化运营组织优化方法,以全网全程运营成本最小为目标,构建铁路物流基地网络化运营组织优化模型,以27个一级铁路物流基地运行数据为研究样本,实证研究模型的科学有效性。结果显示:运用铁路物流基地网络化运营组织优化模型,能够快速生成铁路物流基地跨局班列开行方案,为提升成网条件下铁路物流基地班列开行质量、优化铁路物流基地网络化运营组织提供理论依据和决策支撑。     

不同运营模式下合资铁路的成本比较分析

在对合资铁路成本作用和合资铁路不同运营模式进行研究的基础上,分析不同运营模式下成本的差异。结合实例对不同运营模式下合资铁路的货物运输成本、工资、管理费用进行比较分析,说明新建合资铁路在选择运营模式时应充分考虑成本的影响。     

基于关联挖掘的接触网运维策略优化研究

接触网作为铁路牵引供电系统的重要组成部分,维持其良好的服役状态是保障铁路运营安全、可靠运行的基础。为了挖掘接触网缺陷间的关联关系,进一步减少人为主观因素的影响,构建多层级接触网缺陷编码体系及缺陷数据库,提出了一种以时空关系为依据的接触网缺陷事务数据库划分方法,同时提出了自适应FP-Growth算法并阐述利用接触网缺陷间关联关系的运维策略优化方法。以朔黄铁路实际数据为例进行分析,验证上述理论的有效性。结果表明,使用接触网缺陷关联关系改进的运维策略可以有效维持接触网系统的可靠性,提升维修效率并降低运维成本,取得较好的工程实际应用效果。     

中老铁路磨万段客票定价方案研究

铁路票价制定策略是旅客运输组织的核心问题,在详细调研老挝运输市场的基础上,结合中老铁路磨万段运输组织简单、委托运营过渡、财务自负盈亏等运营特点,从铁路运营成本和运输市场竞争关系2个层面,对中老铁路磨万段客票定价进行分析,采用基于广义费用的Logit模型拟合出不同运输距离下同通道内航空、公路和铁路3种运输方式随铁路定价调整时的客运分担率变化情况,从而得出中老铁路磨万段分担率优势定价区间,并比较老挝相邻国家铁路票价,进行定价合理性分析,在此基础上,从基准票价与执行票价相结合、多币种收费防范金融风险、建立健全票价调整机制3个角度,提出中老铁路票价执行方案和调整对策,为“一带一路”境外铁路项目客票定价提供决策参考。     

基于演化博弈的成都外环铁路运营模式选择研究

铁路运营模式选择的实质是相关利益主体之间的利益博弈,不同铁路运营模式选择直接影响铁路的建设成本和运营收入。在界定铁路自主运营和委托运营2种模式内涵、优劣势的基础上,分析影响铁路运营模式选择的内外部因素,构建四川省和地方铁路局集团公司之间的演化博弈模型,并对成都外环铁路运营模式选择进行研究。结果发现:四川省和地方铁路局集团公司之间的博弈存在{委托运营,支持}{自主运营,不支持}{自主运营,支持}3种演化稳定均衡结果,这意味着成都外环铁路近期适宜选择委托地方路局运营的模式,中长期适宜采用自主运营模式。研究结论能为成都外环铁路运营模式的选择提供决策参考,有助于成都外环铁路选择合理的运营模式。     

中老铁路磨万段CTC系统设计方案研究

中老铁路磨万段作为中老铁路的一部分,是第一条以中方为主投资建设、与老挝共同运营并与中国铁路网直接连通的跨国铁路,目前已开通运营。铁路调度集中控制(CTC)系统作为影响铁路运输的关键系统,既要满足行车运输功能需求,又要易于操作维护,确保铁路运输系统安全。从老挝实际国情出发,在对中老铁路磨万段运输组织、调度区划以及运维功能需求进行分析的基础上,考虑工程投资情况,结合相关的中国规范标准,借鉴中国铁路既有线的维护经验,对CTC系统的组网方案和安全防护方案进行了适应性研究,基于CTC 2.0系统架构设计了适用于老挝的CTC系统方案,方案可以充分满足中老铁路磨万段的运输组织、调度规划、系统功能需求,并为其他境外项目CTC系统设计和研究提供参考。     

铁路车站调车作业安全防护设备运维管理系统研究

铁路车站调车作业效率直接影响铁路运输企业的效率和效益,为保障调车作业安全,提升调车作业效率,卡控铁路车站调车作业安全风险,结合设备运维管理现状,分析设备运维管理需求,提出铁路车站调车作业安全防护设备运维管理系统总体架构,研究运维管理系统业务流程,针对状态监测、履历管理、维修决策、报表管理等功能进行设计,破解信息不对称问题,提高信息共享度,优化调车作业组织,为各级应用对象运维管理业务提供支持,不断提升设备运维管理水平。     

朔黄铁路基础设施智能运维系统研发与应用

随着朔黄铁路运量不断提升，铁路基础设施维护与安全保障压力持续增大。为提升基础设施安全保障水平、降低运营维护成本，在深入分析国内外重载铁路基础设施运维发展方向基础上，以实现基础设施状态智能感知和智能运维为目标，采用物联网、人工智能、机器人、北斗卫星导航等新技术，创新构建了空天车地一体化的智能检测监测体系，实现基础设施检测全覆盖、状态实时监控、超前预警，研发了集设备全寿命周期管理、检测监测一体化管理、状态评估与运维决策、安全生产管理、环境监测五位一体的智能运维系统，实现设备资产数字化、决策评估智能化、流程管理自动化、检修维护精准化、生产过程可视化，研究成果在朔黄铁路取得了良好的运用效果。     

TOD+PPP模式的开发运用和投资评价研究

TOD将交通系统的便捷高效和土地的集约利用深度融合,是构建城市发展新格局的关键。在TOD+PPP模式下,政府和社会资本通过合作伙伴关系,共同对轨道交通沿线的土地进行综合开发,利用土地增值收益反哺轨道交通的建设和运营,提高轨道交通的社会效益和经济效益。文中选取长三角地区的某条城际铁路,通过案例分析的形式介绍TOD+PPP的运作模式、开发方案和经济效益。     

基于ABC和BP神经网络的铁路货运成本预测研究

运用作业成本法,结合BP神经网络理论建立铁路货运成本预测模型。通过案例分析,得出BP神经网络可以更准确的预测铁路货运成本费用的结论。     

A global model for estimating the block time of commercial passenger aircraft

This paper uses a two-stage statistical model to estimate the block time of commercial passenger aircraft. The model considers many of the factors contributing to airport congestion and provides a basis for future development of multivariate statistical models of the flight operation process. The model is tested using 2 million US domestic flights by six airlines in 2004. Model analysis provided insight regarding the relative impact of weather conditions and airport utilization on block time. In particular, population, arrival time, airport utilization, ice, and the interaction of poor weather conditions and traffic were found to be significant predictors of block time.     

An economic–geographic assessment of the potential for a new air transport hub in post-Gaddafi Libya

Post-war Libya is faced with the challenge of adopting an air transport strategy for the future. One issue is how to address projects inaugurated under the Gaddafi government, such as the terminal extension at Tripoli International Airport. Additionally, the state-owned Afriqiyah Airlines had been establishing a niche hub in Tripoli before the 2011 war, but this development has subsequently been stalled.Against this background, we analyse the prospects of an air transport hub operation in Libya, focusing on traffic between Africa and Europe, from a bird’s-eye economic–geographic view. First, a literature review is undertaken to identify general success factors for air transport hubs. Second, a weighted average distance penalty (WADP) indicator is developed and applied to Tripoli as a potential hub location. This indicator considers all 4755 O&Ds between Europe and Africa with more than 100 passengers in 2012. For sensitivity reasons, alternative WADPs are estimated for the 3209 traffic flows not including North Africa and for (forecasted) future air traffic demand in 2020. The results for Tripoli International Airport are benchmarked against competing hub locations, such as Algiers, Cairo, and the major European airports. We conclude by discussing the implications of the current and anticipated future security and economic situation in the country.     

The hidden cost of uncertainty for airspace users

This article highlights the importance of uncertainty in day-to-day operations, and the need to take it into account to properly assess the cost of delay for airspace users. It defines a cost of uncertainty and estimates it using real data. It provides some easily computable models based on the average and standard deviation of delay to estimate the cost of delay in general. The article shows that uncertainty is also important in the formulation of buffers for airlines and provides a simple model to estimate the optimal assignment, further using real data to compute the optimal value at different airports.     

Corporate social responsibility programs choice and costs assessment in the airline industry—A hybrid model

Corporate social responsibility (CSR) has taken an increasingly important role in business. Here we develop a technique for operationalizing CSR programs for air transportation within the context of limited physical resources. A hybrid model for selection and costs assessment is proposed to address inter-relationships among CSR criteria using trial and evaluation laboratory methods, analytical network processes and zero–one goal programming. The activity-based costing approach is applied to estimate costs of the chosen programs and an example looking at China Airlines is presented.     

A method for the estimation of greenhouse gas emissions based on road geometric design and its application to South Korea

South Korea has the tenth highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions worldwide, of which 16% originates from the road sector. Existing estimation methods of road GHG emissions have various limitations, such as low accuracy or the ability to only estimate GHG emissions within a limited area. Therefore, this study aimed to develop a methodology to estimate GHG emissions while considering various geometric designs of roads, including both vertical and horizontal alignment. The developed method is more objective and reliable than existing methodologies that consider only vertical alignment. First, Lamm's theory on travel speed profiles was applied to predict GHG emissions. Then, this study attempted to overcome the limited spatial estimation capacity of existing methods by considering upstream and downstream geometric design parameters simultaneously. Second, this study used the GHG operation mode extracted from the MOtor Vehicle Emission Simulator (MOVES), a modeling system that estimates emissions for mobile sources at the national, county, and project levels for criteria air pollutants, GHGs, and air toxicity. The operation mode includes vehicle type, fuel, and other factors, and is designed to estimate GHG emissions at 1-s intervals. Based on the results of the analysis, the effectiveness of the new method was compared to existing methods using an economic analysis (e.g., cost–benefits from the reduced emissions). This study presents a method for performing sensitive estimations of GHG emissions according to the geometric design of roads, which can be used to collect more accurate data on GHG emissions.     

Intermodal routing of Canada–Mexico shipments under NAFTA

This paper obtains the optimal routings for intermodal containerized transport from Canada to Mexico. Such traffic is being stimulated by the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), but the cost and lead times of feasible routes are not well known. We summarize the links and routes to Mexico on which one or more carriers now operate, and then determine non-dominated tradeoffs between cost and service. Every southbound route from Canada requires a transshipment point in the southern or southwestern U. S. Feasible transshipment points are also candidate locations for a manufacturing ‘twin plant’, a distribution centre, or a transportation hub. Here, as a first step in this bigger problem, a network is constructed between five Canadian origins and three important Mexican destinations. Each link employs available intermodal services whose transit time and transportation cost are obtained through industry sources. A shortest-path algorithm enables calculation of the route requiring least time and the route of minimum cost. Non-dominated time/cost tradeoffs are identified for each origin–destination pair. After including inventory expenses (by parametrizing the unit value of lead time), total-cost curves then eliminate some routing alternatives. Guidelines are provided on the effects of mode, carrier, and O–D locations on selection of intermodal routes to Mexico. Finally, two new intermodal services are proposed and their benefits discussed.     

How thick is the border: the relative cost of Canadian domestic and cross-border truck-borne trade, 2004–2009

Despite the elimination of tariff barriers between Canada and the United States, the volume of trade between the two countries is less than would be expected in the absence of impediments. While considerable work has been done to gauge the degree of integration between the Canadian and U.S. economies through trade, relatively little analysis has parsed out the underlying costs of the border. The costs of crossing the border can be divided into formal tariff barriers, non-tariff barriers, and the cost of the transport system. This paper focuses on the latter by estimating the cost of shipping goods by truck between Canada and the U.S. during the 2004–2009 period. The incremental cost of import and export over domestic shipments is measured in both absolute and ad valorem terms. The latter provides an estimate of the border increment in transportation cost as a tariff equivalent. The incremental cost is further broken down into fixed and variable (line-haul) components. Higher fixed costs are consistent with border delays and border compliance costs being passed on to the consumers of trucking services. Higher line-haul costs may result from difficulties obtaining backhauls for a portion of the trip home, which may stem from trade imbalances and regulations that restrict the ability of Canadian-based carriers to transport goods between two points in the U.S.     

Environmental costs in European aviation

This paper presents estimates of environmental costs in a set of 36 European airline markets. Cost are calculated for noise, air pollution and accident risk using data on aircraft emissions, exposure-response parameters and economic valuation of environmental goods. The ‘medium value’ cost estimate is 0.0201ECU per passenger-km. This result suggests that environmental costs represent only a small fraction (2.5%) of the internal cost of aviation as measured by the average ticket price. Noise costs are the dominant environmental cost at some 75% of the cost total. The medium estimates are sensitive to changes in the various assumptions in the pathways: a low and high estimate are three times lower and five times higher, respectively, than the medium estimate. The study further suggests that there are environmental economies of scale in air transport and that Chapter 2 aircraft are about a factor four more environmentally costly than Chapter 3 aircraft.