The Impact of Personal Taxes on the Firm's Weighted Average Cost of Capital and Investment Behaviour: A Simplified Approach Using the Dempsey Discounted Dividends Model

The discounted dividends model advanced by Dempsey (1996) is extended to provide a weighted average cost of capital (WACC) assessment of investment opportunities with irregular cash flows. Thereafter, the framework is extended to an assessment of the implications of government tax policy for the firm's investment behaviour. The developed framework is consistent with the empirical evidence of Poterba and Summers (1985) which — over the period of UK tax history 1950–1983 encompassing four major tax on equity reforms — observes how the related dividend and investment politics of UK firms appear to be influenced by the level of dividend taxes.     

The Cost of Equity Capital at the Corporate and Investor Levels Allowing a Rational Expectations Model with Personal Taxations

This paper argues that the conventional definition of the cost of equity at the corporate level is likely to be fundamentally flawed under conditions of personal taxation. A 'dimensionally consistent' definition is developed utilising the pioneering contributions of Auerbach and Elton and Gruber. Consequent benefits are straight-forward expressions for the cost of equity capital at the corporate level (for both retained earnings and new equity) as well as at the investor level (post personal tax) in terms of both the dividend discount and CAPM-type models, which are applicable to classical and imputation tax systems. A fundamental framework is thereby provided which succeeds in illuminating investor pesonal tax liabilities as they might be expected to impact on a firm's investment and related dividend policies.     

The Opening, Short, Medium and Long Term Performance of Canadian Unit Trust Initial Public Offerings (IPOs)

Abstract:   This paper investigates the initial pricing and performance of Canadian unit trust IPOs over a three‐ to four‐year period and then draws implications for the efficiency of the Canadian market. Overall, the results confirm the following: in the short term, unit trust IPOs are underpriced and outperform the Canadian market; in the medium term, IPOs are fairly priced and neither outperform nor underperform the Canadian market; and in the long term, IPOs are fairly priced but underperform the Canadian market. In addition, our results confirm that the size of underpricing is related to ex‐ante uncertainty about the value of the issue. Ex‐ante uncertainty proxies, namely total risk, exchange listing, relative bid‐ask spread, and relative volume of initial trade, all explain the size of underpricing. When the effects of these factors are controlled, the results confirm that Canadian unit trust IPOs are indeed overpriced in the short term but underpriced in the long term. We conclude that the Canadian unit trust IPO market appears to be inefficient in the short and long term, but over the medium, the market appears to be efficient.     

On the Existence of Visual Technical Patterns in the UK Stock Market

The aim in this paper is to replicate and extend the analysis of visual technical patterns by Lo et al. (2000) using data on the UK market. A non‐parametric smoother is used to model a nonlinear trend in stock price series. Technical patterns, such as the 'head‐and‐shoulders' pattern, that are characterised by a sequence of turning points are identified in the smoothed data. Statistical tests are used to determine whether returns conditioned on the technical patterns are different from random returns and, in an extension to the analysis of Lo et al. (2000), whether they can outperform a market benchmark return. For the stocks in the FTSE 100 and FTSE 250 indices over the period 1986 to 2001, we find that technical patterns occur with different frequencies to each other and in different relativities to the frequencies found in the US market. Our extended statistical testing indicates that UK stock returns are less influenced by technical patterns than was the case for US stock returns.     

The Market Valuation of Bank Shares: With Implications for the Value Additivity Principle

This paper examines the capital market's pricing of cash flow producing activities of U.S. banks. A multiple regression methodology is used in conjunction with an extensive, cross section‐time series data set spanning the years 1974 through 1991. This data set and methodology provide the basis for a unique test of the value additivity principle as well as insight into how banks have responded to the changing technological, competitive and regulatory environments. Overall the results support the value additivity principle until 1983. However, statistically significant deviations from the value additivity principle are identified across all subgroups beginning in 1984. Important product innovations, changing technology, and regulatory and competitive changes appear to have provided banks with greater opportunities and incentives for the expansion and linkage of cash flow producing activities.     

The Relationship between Fair Value,Market Value,and Efficient Markets*

This paper proposes that an assumption of reasonable market efficiency is at the essence of the relevance of fair value for financial reporting purposes. The paper's examination of this proposal begins with a review of recent academic literature on market efficiency, and on evidence of inefficiencies and their implications for the ability of the efficient market hypothesis to explain what market prices represent. It concludes that there is wide acceptance in this literature that a reasonable level of efficiency can generally be presumed to exist in active, well‐regulated capital markets. The paper examines the essential attributes of a reasonably efficient market for fair value measurement purposes, and some basic implications for its reliable estimation. This is done in comparison with the provisions of the fair value measurement standard of the Financial Accounting Standards Board (FASB) (Statement of Financial Accounting Standards [SFAS] No. 157). It is concluded that the concept of reasonable market efficiency could provide a sound conceptual framework for defining fair value that is founded in real, observable market prices. It is demonstrated that, in contrast, SFAS No. 157 does not provide a clear, unequivocal concept of fair value, and that it permits estimates of fair value that have no demonstrable basis in real, observable market prices. Nevertheless, it appears that arguments typically put forward by the International Accounting Standards Board and the FASB for the relevance of fair value for financial reporting purposes do imply a presumption of reasonably efficient markets.     

The Real Options Component of Firm Market Value: The Case of the Technological Corporation

Abstract:   This paper tests whether stock prices reflect investor's expectations regarding the value of real options. The analysis is implemented based on a sample of 391 high‐tech companies listed on main OECD stock markets during the period December 1994 through December 2000. Results confirm the predicted relation between the fraction of a firm's market value not accounted for by its assets‐in‐place, and a series of variables that are assumed to disclose its real options value, variables such as research and development activity, risk and skewness of stock returns, and size. The results are robust even after controlling for valuation date, sub‐industry, country, and alternative measures of risk.     

Payout Policy Tax Clienteles,Ex‐dividend Day Stock Prices and Trading Behavior in Germany: The Case of the 2001 Tax Reform

This paper examines the impact of the German 2001 tax reform, where Germany switched from a full imputation system to a classical system. Theory suggests that both price drop ratios and trading volume decrease following the reform. We document a significant reduction in the valuation of net dividends–in particular for high dividend yield stocks–and weakening payout policy tax clienteles. Ex‐dividend day returns are likely to be driven by short‐term traders. Though the reform removed incentives for cross‐border dividend stripping and reduced tax heterogeneity among investors, we show that the high trading volume around ex‐dividend days persists.     

The Market Timing Ability of UK Mutual Funds

Abstract:  We apply a recent nonparametric methodology to test the market timing skills of UK equity and balanced mutual funds. The methodology has a number of advantages over the widely used regression based tests of Treynor-Mazuy (1966) and Henriksson-Merton (1981) . We find a relatively small number of funds (around 1%) demonstrate positive market timing ability at a 5% significance level while around 19% of funds exhibit negative timing and on average funds miss-time the market. However, controlling for publicly available information we find very little evidence of market timing ability based on private timing signals. In terms of investment styles, there are a small number of successful positive market timers amongst Equity Income and 'All Company' funds but not among either Small Stock funds or Balanced funds, although a few small stock funds are found to time a small stock index rather than a broad market index.     

股票的权益比、账面市值比及其公司规模与股票投资风险——以上海证券市场的10只上市公司股票投资风险为例

最近20年来一些学者对CAPM理论模型检验的结果大都表明,股票的投资风险(或其收益)并非像该模型描述的那样由β系数唯一决定,还存在其他因素在股票投资风险中起影响作用。国内学者借助于横截面法的回归模型研究指出,股票的权益比率(D/E)、账面/市值价值比(BV/MV)与公司规模是决定股票投资风险除β系数外的三个主要经济变量。为了验证他们理论的正确性与精确性,该文率先运用模糊数学的聚类分析法,对上证市场随机选取10只样本股票的D/E、BV/MV、公司规模与股票投资风险相关性进行实证分析,并与用回归分析方法得到的β指数与风险关系进行比较研究。经研究进一步证实,股票投资风险并非唯一由β系数决定,股票的D/E、BV/MV及其公司规模应当成为β系数以外影响股票投资风险不可忽视的重要因素。本文研究的意义在于建议股票投资者,衡量股票投资风险不仅要考察股票的β系数,还应进一步考察股票的D/E、BV/MV和公司规模等。     

不同市场结构下农村信用社经营绩效研究

本文对陕西省85家农村信用社市场份额与经营绩效的关系进行分析。整体来讲,农村信用社贷款市场份额与其经营绩效呈负相关。进一步分析不同市场集中度情况,贷款占比50%以上的农村信用社市场份额与经营绩效负相关,而贷款占比50%以下的农村信用社两指标正相关。这就表明应建立适度竞争的县域农村金融市场,以提高农信社经营效率,充分发挥其主力军作用,从而尽快构建现代农村金融体系。     

国有股减持与资本市场的均衡发展

均衡发展是资本市场运行的最佳状态，然而我国上市公司的国有股份比重过大且不能流通却严重影响了资本市场的均衡发展。国有股减持是一个复杂的系统工程，关系到国家、公司和投资者的利益，影响到资本市场资金、股票的供求平衡，影响到股价的波动，最张影响到资本市场的均衡发展。国外在国有股减持过程中，很重视资本市场上各市场关系的均衡。我们有必要在国有股减持的程序高度、减持步骤及价格的确定等方面体现市场均衡的精神。     

The Impact of Market Maker Competition on Nasdaq Spreads

This study utilizes a comprehensive database containing monthly information on the number of market makers for about 5,288 Nasdaq securities over an eight-year period to investigate the impact of competition on spreads. A variety of models are estimated in order to demonstrate the robustness of the results that include four specific findings: (1) the number of market makers has a negative and highly significant impact on spreads; (2) the relation is nonlinear with a decreasing impact by the marginal market maker; (3) Nasdaq spreads have been declining over time; and (4) structural changes in Nasdaq are associated with significant changes in the relationship between spread and the number of market makers. One improvement over the literature includes allowing endogenous competition through the use of instrumental variables.     

Reexamining the Robustness of the Market Value of Equity

We apply the methodology of Knez and Ready (KR) (1997) to data from the Japanese stock market and reexamine the robustness of the risk premium for the market value of equity (MVE). In particular, we compare two alternative explanations for the relation between stock returns and MVE: the one pointed out by Fama and French (FF) (1992) and the other proposed by Berk (1995). Consistent with results for the U.S. market, when we check FF's explanation for MVE, we find that the risk premium for MVE is not robust against extreme observations. Besides the evidence supporting KR's findings, we study the role of MVE proposed by Berk (1995), who points out that under controlled expected cash flows, MVE will be negatively correlated with expected returns. After showing that MVE negatively correlates with risk in the presence of expected cash flows, we test the robustness of the relation between returns and MVE. We find that the estimated risk premium for MVE is robust when realized cash flows (earnings plus depreciation) or book value of equity (BE) is used as a proxy for expected cash flows.     

From dividend yield to discounted cash flow: a history of UK and US equity valuation techniques

This article explores how, as capital markets developed, equity valuation methods changed. The history of equity valuation is described, from its early origins during the South Sea Bubble, through the new issue boom of the nineteenth century and the stock market booms of the 1920s and 1950s. The moves from dividend yield and asset backing, to earnings yield and then P/E ratios are chronicled. The article compares developments in the UK and the US, in particular the relative slowness of the UK market to adopt US-pioneered techniques such as the P/E ratio, the concept of value versus growth stocks, and using intrinsic value to determine whether shares are cheap or dear. The article concludes with a discussion of the relatively slow introduction of the dividend discount model and of discounted cash flow as equity valuation tools on both sides of the Atlantic.     

The Role of the Options Market in the Dissemination of Private Information

Abstract:   This paper examines the role the options market plays in the dissemination of private information. We find abnormal volume in the options market for three days prior to management forecasts, controlling for concurrent equity volume. Classifying trades as long or short, we find more informed options volume relative to equity volume (1) with relatively greater options market liquidity; (2) when equity is listed on the NYSE or AMEX; (3) for larger surprises; (4) with fewer analysts; (5) for shorter times between the forecast and period end; (6) for good news forecasts; and (7) for smaller percentage institutional holdings.     

深市小微市值账户近五年盈亏情况报告

对2007年1月1日至2011年12月31日五年的登记结算数据进行分析显示:五年间深市证券账户盈利621.95亿元,所有账户中仅机构账户总体盈利。从盈亏账户比重来看,机构账户盈利占比最高,个人账户中,微型市值账户盈利占比最高。个人账户尤其是小微市值账户ST股持股比重高于机构账户,而深成指持股占比远低于中大市值账户和机构账户。并且,小微市值账户的交易频率远低于中大市值账户,而持股集中度高于中大市值账户与机构账户。小微市值账户的开户时间越早、投资经验越丰富、年龄越大,其盈利能力相对越强;反之,交易越频繁、投资越分散,盈利能力则随之降低。其他类型账户与小微市值账户的情况大致相同。     

Glamour Acquirers, Method of Payment and Post‐acquisition Performance: The UK Evidence

We study the effect of different acquirer types, defined by financial status and their payment methods, on their short and long‐term performance, in terms of abnormal returns using a variety of benchmark models. For a sample of 519 UK acquirers during 1983–95, we examine the abnormal return performance of acquirers based on their pre‐bid financial status as either glamour or value acquirers using both the price to earnings (PE) ratio and market to book value ratio (MTBV). Value acquirers outperform glamour acquirers in the three‐year post‐acquisition period. One interpretation is that glamour firms have overvalued equity and tend to exploit their status and use it more often than cash to finance their acquisitions. As we move from glamour to value acquirers, there is a greater use of cash. Our results are broadly consistent with those for the US reported by Rau and Vermaelen (1998). However, in contrast to their study, we find stronger support for the method of payment hypothesis than for extrapolation hypothesis. Cash acquirers generate higher returns than equity acquirers, irrespective of their glamour/ value status. Our conclusions, based on four benchmark models for abnormal returns, suggest that stock markets in both the US and the UK may share a similar proclivity for over‐extrapolation of past performance, at least in the bid period. They also tend to reassess acquirer performance in the post‐acquisition period and correct this overextrapolation. These results have implications for the behavioural aspects of capital markets in both countries.     

The Seasoned‐Equity Issues of UK Firms: Market Reaction and Issuance Method Choice

Abstract:   This study examines the seasoned equity issues of companies traded on the London Stock Exchange. Recent regulatory changes have allowed UK firms more discretion in choice of issue approach, and this has led many firms to issue through placing in preference to a rights issue. Having first documented the trend towards increasing use of placings, we go on to identify an interesting subset of placings that are less likely to be anticipated by the market, and find a significant positive market reaction to such placings, which contrasts with the significant negative reaction we find for issues by rights. We also examine the choice of seasoned equity issuance method, focusing on the choice between placings versus rights issues. We develop a model to explain the choice of equity issue method that achieves a high level of predictive accuracy.