Economics of carbon sequestration under fluctuating economic environment,forest management and technological changes: An application to forest stands in the southern United States

This study presents a model that determines the effect of current and future payments for carbon sequestration, proportion of wood that sequesters carbon in long-lived product and landfills, and amount of carbon in the wood, on the optimal current forest harvest age. Increased current and future prices of carbon would lead to a longer and shorter harvest age, respectively. Higher current prices of carbon could increase the supply of carbon at a decreasing rate due to longer harvest ages. Moderate prices of carbon would encourage landowners to maintain standing timber. Policies focused then on stimulating landowners to hold timber on forestlands may not necessarily imply higher amounts of sequestered carbon. Increased future values of carbon could imply a reduction of the current supply of carbon.     

Woody biomass potential for energy feedstock in United States

The production reliability and relatively low costs of sustainably harvested woody biomass such as logging residue and low value roundwood could make it a significant component of the Renewable Fuel Standards portfolio. This research explored a set of woody biomass harvesting combinations of different sources and wood types using a cost minimizing linear programming model populated with disaggregated regional inventory, yield, and cost data, and projected future conventional wood demand of the United States. The model pre-satisfied conventional wood demand before harvesting roundwood as woody biomass. Findings suggest that collecting forest residue and non-merchantable (small sized) timber may provide the largest initial contribution in woody biomass supply. Regional estimations imply that not all regions have the capacity to develop bioenergy plants without using merchantable (medium sized) wood. Within a reasonable range of harvesting costs, demand for roundwood is expected to increase with higher energy production targets. Harvesting merchantable natural softwood as woody biomass has a relatively small impact on marginal supply costs. This will result in little or no disturbance to merchantable natural softwood timber management and operations if demand for woody biomass increased.     

The potential and cost of increasing forest carbon sequestration in Sweden

This paper examines the potential and the cost of promoting forest carbon sequestration through a tax/subsidy to land owners for reducing/increasing carbon storage in their forests. We use a partial equilibrium model based on intertemporal optimization to estimate the impacts of carbon price (the tax/subsidy rate) on timber harvest volume and price in different time periods and on the change of forest carbon stock over time. The results show that a higher carbon price would lead to higher forest carbon stocks. The tax/subsidy induced annual net carbon sequestration is declining over time. The net carbon sequestration during 2015–2050 would increase by 30.2 to 218.3 million tonnes of CO₂, when carbon price increases from 170 SEK to 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The associated cost, in terms of reduced total benefits of timber and other non-timber goods, ranges from 80 SEK to 105.8 SEK per tonne of CO₂. The change in carbon sequestration (as compared with the baseline case) beyond 2050 is small when carbon price is 680 SEK per tonne of CO₂ or lower. With a carbon price of 1428 SEK per tonne of CO₂, carbon sequestration will increase by 70 million tonnes of CO₂ from the baseline level during 2050-2070, and by 64 million tonnes during 2070–2170.     

Consequences of carbon offset payments for the global forest sector

Long-term effects of policies to induce carbon storage in forests were projected with the Global Forest Products Model. Offset payments for carbon sequestered in forest biomass of $15–$50/t CO₂e applied in all countries increased CO₂ sequestration in world forests by 5–14 billion tons from 2009 to 2030. Limiting implementation to developed countries exported environmental damage from North to South, as developing countries harvested more, decreasing their stored CO₂e. Substantially more CO₂e was sequestered by allocating a given budget to all countries rather than to developed countries only. As offset payments increased wood prices relatively more than they decreased production, timber revenues generally increased. In the few countries with timber revenues losses they were more than compensated by the offset payments.     

中国省域森林碳汇效率演进分析

基于1999—2018年的林业发展数据,采用森林蓄积量扩展法和DEA-Malmquist法实证分析了中国29个省(市、区)森林碳汇静态效率和动态演进过程。结果表明:1999—2018年中国森林碳汇总量呈增长趋势;从静态方面看,中国碳汇效率总体较低,区域间差异大,碳汇效率的空间分布与各省(市、区)经济发展水平之间存在一定的反向关联性,纯技术效率是制约综合效率增长的主要因素;从动态方面看,Malmquist生产指数呈U型趋势发展,技术进步指数和技术效率变化指数对Malmquist生产指数的驱动作用不同。因此,相关部门要建立健全林业技术推广体系;提高森林碳汇的科技水平;完善产权激励机制;加快构建碳交易市场;促进林业资源合理配置;加强对森林资源的保护;加快推进集体林权制度改革。     

Combining an inter-sectoral carbon tax with sectoral mitigation policies: Impacts on the French forest sector

As France works out its plan to tackle climate change issues, questions are arising in the forest sector as to how sectoral mitigation programs such as those designed to enhance fuelwood consumption or to stimulate in-forest carbon sequestration may coincide with an inter-sectoral program such as an economy-wide carbon tax. This paper provides insights into this question by exploring the impacts of (1) a combination of a carbon tax and a fuelwood policy, and (2) a combination of a carbon tax and a sequestration policy on (i) the economy of the forest sector, and (ii) the dynamics of the forest resource. To do this, we used a modified version of the French Forest Sector Model (FFSM) and carried out simulations on a 2020 time horizon. Basing our analysis on the fuelwood sector, we showed that wood producers always benefit from the combination of a carbon tax with either a fuelwood policy or a sequestration policy at the national level. Conversely, and although it favors wood products instead of non-wood substitutes, a carbon tax always decreases consumer surpluses by increasing wood product prices. As a consequence, the combination of a carbon tax with sectoral policies is likely to raise questions about the political economy of the mitigation program. This is particularly true in the case of a combination of a carbon tax with a sequestration policy, which already decreases consumer surpluses. We eventually showed that by increasing transport costs between domestic regions, the carbon tax reallocates production patterns over French territory which could lead to the necessity of a regional breakdown of policy-mixes in the forest sector.     

Global trade impacts of increasing Europe's bioenergy demand

European governments are rapidly turning to biomass to comply with the EU's legislated renewable energy targets for 2020 and 2030. To do so, EU member states will likely have to increase imports of biomass from timber rich regions, which will undoubtedly disrupt international wood product markets. In this study, a static global forest trade model of coniferous wood products is used to examine the effects of expanded demand for wood pellets in Europe to generate reliable electricity. Positive mathematical programming (PMP) is used to calibrate the model to 2012 bilateral trade flows. To assess the impact of increased wood-pellet demand on global forest products, we consider a scenario where EU demand for wood pellets doubles. Model results suggest increases in the world prices of industrial roundwood (1%), particleboard ($34/m³), fibreboard ($30/m³), pulp ($65/t) and pellets (71% to 128%), while the prices of sawnwood and plywood & veneer are projected to fall by $12/m³ and $4/m³, respectively. The gains and losses are unevenly distributed between timber rich and timber poor regions; Russia, Canada and the U.S. experience large net welfare gains of $706 million, $544 million and $416 million, respectively, while Asia loses $1.8 billion. In the forest products sector, the gains outweigh losses with economic benefits increasing by some $4.9 billion, but this is a cost to the consumers of electricity and/or taxpayers in the regions implementing these renewable energy policies. The price of wood pellets is projected to rise between $107 and $154 per tonne. The findings highlight the need to account for the interconnections among softwood forest products globally.     

Is forest carbon sequestration at the expense of bioenergy and forest products cost-efficient in EU climate policy to 2050?

Forest management affects the quantity of CO₂ emissions in the atmosphere through carbon sequestration in standing biomass, carbon storage in forest products and production of bioenergy. The main question studied in this paper is whether forest carbon sequestration is worth increasing at the expense of bioenergy and forest products to achieve the EU emissions reduction target for 2050 in a cost-efficient manner. A dynamic cost minimisation model is used to find the optimal combination of carbon abatement strategies to meet annual emissions targets between 2010 and 2050. The results indicate that forest carbon sequestration is a low-cost abatement method. With sequestration, the net present costs of meeting EU carbon targets can be reduced by 23%.     

Optimizing joint production of timber and carbon sequestration of afforestation projects

Optimizing harvesting decisions has been a matter of concern in the forestry literature for centuries. However, in some tropical countries, growth models for fast-growing tree species have been developed only recently. Additionally, environmental services of forests gain importance and should be integrated in forest management decisions. We determine the impact of a joint production of timber and carbon sequestration on the optimal rotation of a fast-growing species in north-western Ecuador, comparing different optimization approaches and taking the latest developments of the Kyoto Protocol into account. We find that payments for carbon sequestration have substantial impact on the rotation length: in contrast to an optimum of 15 years when focusing on timber production only, joint production leads to a doubling of the rotation length, which means that timber harvest should be postponed until the end of the carbon project.     

On the economics of forests and climate change: Deriving optimal policies

First-best optimal forest sector carbon policy is examined. Using a forest and energy sector model with a carbon cycle module we show that the renewability and carbon neutrality arguments do not warrant emission free status of wood use. As a general optimality principle, the release of carbon is penalized by a tax and carbon capture is subsidized. However, under the biomass stock change carbon accounting convention, the land owners pay for the roundwood emissions and, to avoid double counting, the use of roundwood is treated as emission free. Yet, the carbon accounting convention followed does not affect the equilibrium outcome. The bioenergy from harvest residues is not emission free either. Furthermore, we show that an optimal policy subsidizes the production of wood products for their carbon sequestration. Correspondingly, carbon removals by biomass growth are subsidized and the harvest residue generation taxed. Numerical solution of the model shows that, although the use of wood is not emission free, it is optimal to increase the use of wood, possibly also in the energy sector. Before the wood use can be increased, the forest biomass will be increased. This carbon sink decreases the net emissions until the forest resources reach a new equilibrium.     

Optimal forest harvest age considering carbon sequestration in multiple carbon pools: A comparative statics analysis

We present an analytical model for determination of the economically optimal harvest age of a forest stand considering timber value, and the value of carbon fluxes in living biomass, dead organic matter, and wood products pools. Through comparative statics analysis, we find that consideration of timber value and fluxes in biomass carbon increase harvest age relative to the timber only solution, and that the effect on optimal harvest age of incorporating fluxes in the dead organic matter and wood products pools is indeterminate.We also present a numerical example to examine the magnitudes of these effects. In general, incorporating the dead organic matter and wood products pools have the effect of reducing rotation age. Perhaps more interestingly, when initial stocks of carbon in dead organic matter or wood products pool are relatively high, consideration of these pools can have a highly negative effect on net present value.     

森林碳汇储备中政府监管与林农行为博弈分析

基于碳汇发展过程中政府与林农之间的博弈关系,结合嵌入式社会结构理论、农户经济理论和正式制度与非正式制度理论,构建政府监管和林农行为选择博弈模型,分析双方的博弈收益。结果表明:政府采取监管、加大扶持力度、建立健全碳汇发展体制机制、完善碳汇市场体系等措施,林农会选择执行监管政策;反之,若政府不实施相关政策,加之林农对森林碳汇认识不够,参与森林碳汇储备意愿不强等,林农会选择不执行监管政策。因此,急需建立健全碳汇交易市场体制机制、完善碳汇林补贴政策、加大政策宣传力度、创新政府监管模式,以期有效推动森林碳汇储备,从而加快森林碳汇项目发展。     

木质林产品进口与中国木材市场消费及木材生产关系的实证研究

根据协整理论和格兰杰因果检验方法,对中国木质林产品进口和国内木材市场消费量及木材年产量之间的关系进行了实证研究。分析结果表明:中国木质林产品进口与木材消费量及年产量之间存在长期稳定的均衡关系,同时在滞后期为1的情况下木质林产品进口与木材市场消费量和木材年产量之间存在单向的格兰杰因果关系。据此,在分析国内木材供需的基础上,提出了大力发展人工林、提高木材利用率、优化进口市场结构等对策建议,以解决对进口木材依赖的问题。     

Can carbon-trading schemes help to protect China's most diverse forest ecosystems? A case study from Xishuangbanna,Yunnan

Xishuangbanna has been largely transformed from biodiverse natural forests and mixed-use farms into monoculture rubber plantations in just twenty years. This conversion has expanded into forests previously protected by the community and onto marginal sites at high-elevation. Market-based ecosystem payments, especially carbon financing, are potential tools to prevent further forest loss in China. Here, we compare rubber net present value (NPV), carbon sequestration, and seed-plant species diversity for Xishuangbanna given three land-use scenarios: Business-As-Usual (BAU), Economic Oriented Scenario (EOS) and Conservation Oriented Scenario (COS) using a previously published spatial map of rubber profitability. The EOS achieved the greatest rubber profit but caused substantial reductions in natural forest area, biodiversity and carbon stocks. The EOS also requires substantial immigration of workers into a remote and ecologically important region with little social infrastructure for basic security, food security, health-care and education, causing frequently ignored costs. As expected, the COS will maintain the highest levels of natural forest area, sequester 57% more carbon, and 71% more biodiversity than EOS. Given the conservation value of the carbon stores and rich biodiversity residing in Xishuangbanna's natural forests, reducing rubber NPV only marginally would probably cost less than attempting to recover these resources. We recommend that rubber plantations be limited to established, productive lowland areas whilst protecting intact high-elevation forest and reforesting low-productivity plantations. These actions will enhance carbon sequestration and biodiversity conservation. Management policies focused solely on profits, like the EOS scenario, will fail to sustain the entire range of natural resources and ecosystem services. The prices in the carbon market would have to be considerably larger than they are currently to compete with the profitability of rubber.     

粮食生产对生态碳汇的影响研究

[目的]协同推进粮食安全与碳中和目标是当下中国的核心议题,但粮食生产对生态碳汇的影响尚不明确,文章尝试梳理粮食生产影响生态碳汇的作用机理,并实证甄别粮食生产影响生态碳汇的净效应。[方法]构建粮食生产影响生态碳汇的分析框架,利用2000—2017年中国县域面板数据,采用双向固定效应模型进行实证检验。[结果]基准分析表明,粮食生产对生态碳汇总量具有显著正向影响。异质性分析表明,复种指数的适度提升有助于发挥粮食生产的碳汇效应;相较于西部和东北地区,东部和中部地区粮食生产的碳汇效应更大。[结论]应重视粮食生产的碳汇属性,通过耕作制度调整等手段加强土壤保护,挖掘粮食生产的碳汇潜力;优化陆地绿色植被空间布局,降低农地、林地和草地等不同绿色植被碳汇的潜在冲突;基于区域差异,制定具有区域针对性的粮食安全与碳中和协同行动方案。     

广东省森林碳汇量估算及其空间效应分析

文章选用蓄积量换算因子法和CO2FIX v3.2模型,分别用于估算广东省现有森林的静态碳汇储量和新造林动态碳汇潜力,并利用空间计量Moran I指数分析广东省碳汇布局的空间效应,为广东碳交易市场发展及其CDM造林碳汇项目的开展提供决策依据。研究表明:2010年广东省全省碳汇总量为481.34Tg C,;在假设进行轮伐的情况下,2008~2057年间广东省实现的新造林净固碳量为97.38Tg C;其中粤北地区碳汇储量和碳汇潜力最高,珠三角地区碳汇储量及碳汇潜力最低。空间效应分析显示了广东省碳汇布局存在较强的空间正相关,大部分城市地区的碳汇储量及潜力处于高-高集群或者低-低的集群中,空间集群特征客观存在。结论表明,应充分考虑到碳汇空间的分布特性,考虑到不同地区碳汇储量及潜力之间的关系,将森林碳汇纳入广东碳排放权交易体系,开展跨区合作,从而实现广东省减排成本的最小化和区域碳排放平衡。     

Designing afforestation subsidies that account for the benefits of carbon sequestration: A case study using data from China's Loess Plateau

This paper presents a method for determining the subsidy required to motivate farmers to participate in timber afforestation programs designed to maximize social well-being. The method incorporates a carbon sequestration benefit function into the land expected value model in order to quantify the social benefit arising from carbon sequestration by the planted trees. This is used to calculate the optimal rotation age for newly planted forests that maximizes social utility. The minimum subsidy required to motivate farmers to participate in the afforestation program was calculated using a modified decision model that accounts for the subsidy's impact. The maximum subsidy offered by the government was taken to be the NPV of the carbon sequestration achieved by afforestation. Data on Robinia pseudoacacia L. trees planted on the Loess Plateau were used in an empirical test of the model, which in this case predicts an optimal subsidy of 254.38 yuan/ha over 40 years. This would guarantee the maintenance of forest on land designated for afforestation until they reached the socially optimal rotation age. The method presented herein offers a new framework for designing afforestation subsidy programs that account for the environmental service (specially, the carbon sequestration) provided by forests.     

Wood biomass use for energy in Europe under different assumptions of coal,gas and CO2 emission prices and market conditions

This study examines the effects of different coal, natural gas and carbon emission prices and market situations on the use of wood for electricity and heat production in the European Union. The analysis is carried out using the global forest sector model EFI-GTM expanded to cover electricity and heat production from wood, coal, natural gas, wind and solar energy. Analysis shows that with low coal and gas prices, use of wood for energy will be limited to low cost logging residues. With high coal, and especially natural gas prices, industrial wood also comes to be used for energy. At a carbon price of 100 €/tCO₂, some 32 Mm³ of industrial wood, in addition to 224 Mm³ of logging residues, are projected to be used for electricity and heat in the EU region (including Norway and Switzerland) in 2030. The relatively low quantity of industrial wood used by the energy sector despite the collapse of the use of coal is explained by the fact that under high CO₂ prices, other energy forms like natural gas, solar and wind energy become more and more competitive. However, the amount of industrial wood used for energy may substantially increase with subsidies for using wood for electricity and heat, even with relatively low carbon prices. With a high coal and gas price and a carbon price of 100 €/t, a subsidy of 30 €/MWh to the wood based and coal with wood co-firing electricity production will have a significant impact on the European wood based sector. Depending on the development of the market demand for forest industry products, such a subsidy may cause a 10–12.5% reduction in forest products production, a 6–9% increase in harvest level, about 30–60% increase in the pulpwood prices, and a 6–9 fold increase of wood imports in the EU, compared to the respective case without a subsidy in 2030.     

A grassland strategy for farming systems in Europe to mitigate GHG emissions—An integrated spatially differentiated modelling approach

This paper assesses the impact of an EU-wide policy to expand grassland areas and promote carbon sequestration in soils. We use the economic Common Agricultural Policy Regionalized Impact (CAPRI) model, which represents EU agriculture using 2450 mathematical programming farm-type models in combination with the biogeochemistry CENTURY model, which provides carbon sequestration rates at a high resolution level. Both models are linked at the NUTS3 level using location information from the Farm Accounting Data Network. We simulated a flexible grassland premium such that farmers voluntary and cost efficiently increase grassland area by 5%. We find that the GHG mitigation potential and the costs depend on carbon sequestration rates, land markets and induced land use changes, and regional agricultural production structures. In Europe, the calculated net effect of converting 2.9 Mha into grassland is a reduction of 4.3 Mt CO2e (equivalents). The premium amounts to an average of EUR 238/ha, with a total cost of EUR 417 million for the whole EU. The net abatement costs are based on the premium payments, and account on average EUR 97/t CO2e. However, substantial carbon sequestration (28% of total sequestration) can be achieved at a rate of EUR 50/t CO2e. Carbon sequestration would be most effective in regions of France and Italy and in Spain, the Netherlands and Germany. Larger farms and farm-types specialized in ‘cereals and protein crops’, ‘mixed field cropping’ and ‘mixed crop-livestock’ farming systems have the highest mitigation potential at relatively low costs.     

竹林“碳汇模式”经营研究:农户接受意愿及其驱动机制

在理性人假设下构建了分析框架,从成本和收益两个角度提出了影响农户采用"碳汇模式"意愿的可能因素。主要采用Logistic模型,利用浙江省临安和安吉两个县市的209个调查样本,对理论分析进行了实证检验。分析结果表明:家庭非农产业就业人数越多、非农收入占家庭收入比例越高,农户越不愿意采用"碳汇模式";把"材用林"作为对照组,经营"笋材两用林"的农户与"碳汇模式"采用意愿正相关,经营"笋用林"的农户与之负相关,说明引起劳动投入以及机会成本增加的因素,会降低农户采用"碳汇模式"的意愿。竹林经营面积与竹林收入占家庭收入比例两个变量没有通过显著性检验,说明农户对竹林的可持续经营等问题重视不够等主要结论。同时,提出了相关的政策建议。