Can mining countries take advantage of their mining rents? A question of abundance,concentration and institutions

ABSTRACT

A common puzzle in economics is whether natural resources are a ‘curse’ or a ‘blessing’ for economic development. Previous studies have suggested that resource booms can promote growth, but private rent-seeking can turn these booms into a curse if institutions are weak. We argue that private incentives differ depending on whether rents are diversified across different commodities or concentrated in a few of them, because greater diversification implies higher appropriation costs. By using SITC-4 level of export disaggregation to measure within-sector concentration in 131 countries during 1991–2015, we show that the effect of mining rents on economic growth is conditional on the level of concentration within the mining sector. Mining rents enhance growth for economies with low concentration and strong institutions but reduce growth for economies with high-concentration and extremely weak institutions.     

Regional economic transformation: Changing land and resource access on the West Coast of New Zealand’s South Island

The West Coast region of New Zealand has experienced significant structural economic changes since the 1980s. These changes have been a result of state imposed land use restrictions that limited productivist activities such as logging and mining, which in turn have been overlain by the effects of changes in national and global resource demand. This has led to both job loss and local resentment to what is seen to be external political and environmental interference in the region. Such changes overlay on-going boom-and-bust cycles experienced in the region’s resource dependent communities and the state’s pursuit of neo-liberalism from the 1980s, leading to the loss of state support and employment in the region. Regional path-dependence and ‘lock-in’ centred on productivist activities and the slow realisation of the need to diversify the economy have not helped. The region has under-performed in comparison with national trends economically and demographically reflecting and reinforcing local path dependence. The gradual growth of the service and tourism economies marks a new use for land resources and slow structural economic change. However, in the absence of governance processes that allow for collaborative planning to resolve conflicts over future trajectories for the region, conflicts over land uses, resources and access are likely to persist.     

Economic vulnerability and regional implications of a low carbon emissions future

Climate change, as well as associated mitigation efforts, will substantially disrupt some economies. Seemingly inevitable market and policy changes will push economies to transition away from reliance on industries with higher carbon emissions and bring transient economic impacts, especially in regions that are currently heavily reliant on such industries. This situation is not unusual in a global context. To underpin better‐informed decisions that enable a smoother economic transition to a low‐emissions future, we developed a ‘latent economic vulnerability to emissions reduction’ (LEVER) index, which maps and explores regions that are more likely to be economically impacted from climate change mitigation. Thus, this paper provides an analysis and discussion of the potential regional implications of a future low‐emissions economy, with the analysis contextualised for the state of Queensland, Australia. Given this case study, the economic impacts and future of coal‐fired power stations, coal mining and renewable energy are discussed.  The LEVER index weighs the risk of high carbon economic exposure against the variability in carbon economic resilience from employment in low‐emission sectors across local economies. We find that between 3 and 6 per cent of Queensland regions are assessed as having a very high latent economic vulnerability to increased decarbonisation of industrial activities. To promote a smoother transition, these regions will require targeted investments and strategies to enable their transition towards lower carbon‐intensive systems, while maximising economic and social outcomes.     

Local economic impacts of an unconventional energy boom: the coal seam gas industry in Australia

Complementing the scarce economic literature about local impacts of energy extraction booms, this paper empirically investigates economic outcomes related to the new coal seam gas (CSG) industry located across southern Queensland. This Australian state has seen an unprecedented inflow of investments into the extraction of this previously unexploited unconventional natural gas over the last decade. We analyse census data to study income and employment effects associated with the CSG boom, exploiting the quasi‐experimental conditions provided by CSG extraction areas (treatment regions) and regions without this development (control regions). Findings show that treatment regions have higher income growth than control areas during 2001–2011 for families residing locally and for individuals present on census night. Employment in the mining sector also shows higher growth as has non‐mining employment in some areas. We include comparisons between CSG areas with no major mining history (the Surat basin) and CSG areas where mining was important before the CSG boom (the Bowen basin), to better understand boom effects in areas with different initial mining industry importance in their economies. Local job multipliers are also analysed for Surat basin CSG areas, where positive impacts (job spillovers) are restricted to construction and professional services jobs, while agricultural jobs have decreased.     

Assessing the Potential Impact of Avian Influenza on Poultry in West Africa: A Spatial Equilibrium Analysis

We analyse the potential economic impacts of avian influenza (AI) in Nigeria, using a spatial equilibrium simulation model. Depending on the size of the affected areas, the direct impact of the spread of AI along the two major migratory bird flyways would be a loss of about 4% of national chicken production. However, the indirect effect – consumers’ reluctance to consume poultry if AI is detected, causing a decline in chicken prices – is generally larger than the direct effect in our simulation. We estimate that Nigerian chicken production would fall by 21% and chicken farmers would lose US$250 million of revenue if the worst‐case scenario occurs. The negative impact would be unevenly distributed in the country, and some states and districts would be seriously affected. The study shows that, while most attention has focused on preventing a global influenza pandemic, preventive measures are also needed at the national, regional and local levels, because AI could potentially have a major negative impact on the poultry industry and the livelihood of smallholder farmers in many regions in West Africa.     

耕地“资源诅咒”的空间异质性及差别化管理策略研究*——中原城市群9个地市的实证

[目的]以中原城市群9个地市为研究对象,利用1998~2014年间面板数据,探索较小范围内耕地资源诅咒假说的存在性及影响因素,并提出适合区域实际的差别化管理政策,为扭转区域发展不平衡局面提供参考。[方法]利用耕地资源诅咒系数划分为不同的诅咒区,建立空间递归面板数据模型测算各诅咒区差别化影响因素。[结果]中原城市群9个地市中,平顶山、新乡、许昌、漯河和开封均存在不同程度的耕地资源诅咒现象,济源、焦作、洛阳属于潜在诅咒区,郑州属于完全无诅咒区。[结论]针对各诅咒区影响机制的不同,提出完全无诅咒区应进一步提高耕地集约利用度,强化对占地少、效益好的高新技术产业的引进力度,加快转移劳动密集型产业;潜在诅咒区可在政策允许范围内适当释放耕地用于发展第二产业,应促进产业转型升级,走新型工业化道路;轻度诅咒区应加大城市间交流协作,积极承接产业转移,带动区域经济发展;严重诅咒区应限制建设用地开发,加强生态环境保护,重点发展第三产业。     

基于省际面板数据农业虚拟水“ 资源诅咒冶 效应的实证检验

"资源诅咒"效应困扰地区的经济增长。针对中国现阶段水资源短缺状况,基于省际面板数据,参照"资源诅咒"假说,通过初步检验和建立时间效应的动态面板数据回归模型,以我国29个省份(地区)1993—2012年面板数据为样本,对农业虚拟水"资源诅咒"效应进行了实证检验,并通过构建"资源丰度—经济增长率"象限图确定"资源诅咒"困扰省份。结果表明:农业虚拟水"资源诅咒"效应在我国短期内客观存在,但随着时间的推移,农业虚拟水"资源诅咒"效应趋于减弱。     

The impact of commodity price shocks among regional economies of a developing country

Volatile commodity prices have become commonplace in the world economy. Although is widely accepted that commodity‐rich countries are affected by this phenomenon, information about how commodity price shocks impacts their regional economies is scarce. This work analyses how shocks in copper prices impact the economies of the major copper‐producing regions in a developing country, such as Chile. To achieve this goal, a two‐step method is implemented. First, we estimate long‐term copper prices using the Wets and Rios approach (2015) and these estimates are then contrasted with those forecast by the Chilean public advisory committee. Second, a general equilibrium model is implemented to simulate the effects of both expansive and restrictive copper price cycles within major producing regions in Chile. Our results show that the proposed approach yields more homogeneous price projections than those made by the Chilean Government, which, in turn, are very close to variations in response to negative shocks. The price simulations confirm that price cycles affect the savings of government and business, which directly dampens regional production, mainly via investment, capital mobilisation and diversification of production. Because of this, fiscal revenues generated by copper sales act as a trade cycle term multiplier in regional economies. Overall, within copper‐producing regions, we suggest implementing long‐term policies to improve profit distribution efficiency.     

Illegal Evictions? Overwriting Possession and Orality with Law's Violence in Cambodia

The unfolding of a juridico‐cadastral system in present‐day Cambodia is at odds with local understandings of landholding, which are entrenched in notions of community consensus and existing occupation. The discrepancy between such orally recognized antecedents and the written word of law have been at the heart of the recent wave of dispossessions that has swept across the country. Contra the standard critique that corruption has set the tone, this paper argues that evictions in Cambodia are often literally underwritten by the articles of law. Whereas ‘possession’ is a well‐understood and accepted concept in Cambodia, a cultural basis rooted in what James C. Scott refers to as ‘orality’, coupled with a long history of subsistence agriculture, semi‐nomadic lifestyles, barter economies and – until recently – widespread land availability have all ensured that notions of ‘property’ are vague among the country's majority rural poor. In drawing a firm distinction between possessions and property, where the former is premised upon actual use and the latter is embedded in exploitation, this paper examines how proprietorship is inextricably bound to the violence of law.     

自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响研究

［目的］针对全国31个省（市、区）（不含港澳台地区）、自然资源依赖度高的地区和自然资源依赖度低的地区,从整体和分区域研究自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响,探究不同区域其影响程度的差异性,进而为弱化各区域城乡收入差距,解决由城乡收入差距拉大造成的各类社会矛盾具有重要的现实意义。［方法］从理论上分析了自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响,并利用1999—2017年的省级面板数据,运用固定效应模型,从全国和分区域实证分析了自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距的影响。［结果］针对全国,自然资源依赖会拉大城乡收入差距; 分区域结果,针对自然资源依赖度高的地区,自然资源依赖拉大城乡收入差距; 针对自然资源依赖度低的地区,自然资源依赖对城乡收入差距影响不显著。［结论］为缩小城乡收入差距,需要降低经济体对自然资源的依赖,针对自然资源依赖度高的地区,政府通过将部分自然资源收益转化为农业创新基金和农村基础设施投入,促进自然资源收益向农村公共资本转化,完善现有的自然资源收益分配及转化制度; 鼓励资源型产业技术创新,加大研发投入,延长资源产业链; 加大农村教育投入、提升农村人力资本质量。     

Assessing the trade‐offs of increased mining activity in the Surat Basin,Queensland: preferences of Brisbane residents using nonmarket valuation techniques

The mining boom in Australia since 2003 has produced significant economic benefits for regional, State and National economies, creating new job opportunities and revenue flows. Despite the contribution of the resources sector to economic growth, questions are frequently raised about the concomitant negative social, economic and environmental impacts. The Surat Basin in southern Queensland is a traditional agricultural region with a small but growing coal mining sector and a rapidly developing liquefied natural gas industry (mainly associated with extracting coal seam gas). In this paper, the preferences of residents in Brisbane, the State capital, are explored in relation to the relative importance of social, economic and environmental impacts of the resource boom in the Surat Basin. A choice modelling experiment was conducted to assess the trade‐offs Brisbane residents would make (in monetary terms) between the economic benefits and the associated costs of increased mining activity on local communities. The results identify the strength of concerns about community and environmental impacts and can potentially be used to help evaluate the net benefits of resource development.     

水资源资产负债表编制主体及作用研究

从水资源资产负债表编制及水资源资产管理的需求出发,探讨了现行以区域为主体编制水资源资产负债表的局限。在此基础上,根据我国的水行政管理体制,从国家(水利工程管理部门、河道及流域)、区域、企业3个层面出发,系统探索多元水资源资产负债表编制主体,并从反映水资源资产开发与管理目标、揭示水资源资产供给与需求之间的关系、提升水资源资产化水平、决策区域未来产业规划及发展方向等方面分析不同主体编制水资源资产负债表的作用。该研究有利于进一步推动水资源资产负债表的编制工作,满足提升我国水资源资产化管理水平、完善国民经济核算体系、引入领导干部自然资源资产离任审计及生态文明建设的需求。     

资源诅咒寻租与冲突传导机制的博弈分析

"资源诅咒"可以通过多种传导机制对经济造成负面影响,而资源尤其是点资源所包含的大量租金诱使人们把很多资金和人力投入到毫无产出的寻租活动中,并且引发激烈的对抗性冲突、破坏和平的生产环境、降低生产效率,便是其中两项重要的传导机制。通过构建博弈模型解释了这两项传导机制的作用原理,并与我国当前资源开发过程中出现的一些问题相结合,提出通过改革资源税税制、控制租金的使用方向来杜绝寻租的源头,以及通过建立中央与地方共赢的利益协调机制来平息纷争的解决方案。以期及时规避资源诅咒,实现租金的有效利用、经济的平稳发展、利益的公平分配和环境的充分保护等多重目标。     

新时代新趋势背景下资源环境承载力评价初探

[目的]把握要素流动下的资源环境压力转移不仅是资源管理工作也是资源环境承载力评价的重要议题。区域均衡发展和自然资源多元化配置加速了区域间要素流动,文章基于产业/部门视角对资源环境承载力评价方法进行探讨。[方法]该文运用框架分析法,对评价边界划分、要素配置方式和评价方法进行了讨论,分析并把握当前新时代新趋势背景下要素流动性的承载力评价的基本要求,并以供需平衡法对产业/部门层面的承载力评价方法进行了探讨。[结果]当前资源要素行政和市场交叉配置下的承载力评价应在资源跨区流动最小的一个社会配置边界上进行,同时以地理边界上的"人口消费边界"界定本地化资源环境要素需求,并且以考虑出口和剔除进口的资源要素来界定其供给,这样可剥离要素流动带来的资源压力转移。[结论]该文提出了产业/部门层面的承载力评价方法,通过把握资源环境要素位置(包括资源位、经济位和生态位)。其主要策略是通过分析和测量由要素流动引起的资源当地消费,经济贡献和环境效益的变化,来捕捉该变化对承载能力的动态影响。该方法可量化经济系统中物资流动与经济发展、环境效应之间的关系,更好地服务于新时代新趋势下资源要素配置、产业结构调整和环境制度的完善。     

United States–Cuba Agricultural Relations and Agrarian Questions

In the wake of Cuba's far‐reaching, halting economic reforms, geopolitical rapprochement and trade openings with the United States (US) offer opportunities and risks for Cuban small‐scale farmers and agrarian cooperatives: pressures, paradoxes and potential abound. Meanwhile, on the margins, agro‐ecologically oriented tours bring admiring US students, farmers and agrarian advocates. Cubans concur that the country must solve key problems in its agricultural sector to overcome the contradictions of its agri‐food model, and that this entails more exchange with the US – but in what capacity and on what terms? The current crossroads begs the classic agrarian question, even as it updates it. Having experienced and survived the promises and disasters of both capitalist and communist agricultural economies, Cuban farmers expand the original ‘peasant’ protagonist. As they navigate new non‐state markets and recent re‐entrenchment of state control of prices, Cuban farmers and cooperatives struggle to avoid monopolizing tendencies of unfettered capitalist as well as communist agricultural economies – both of which have historically been ecologically damaging. US agribusiness courts Cuba, but not as mere unidirectional capture: Cubans are inviting and leveraging trade to end the embargo, which is increasingly being modified altogether. Key Cuban agrarian principles of resilience and cooperativismo have persisted through capitalist and communist crises: could they influence prospects for agro‐industrial hegemony from the North?      

Experiments in farmers' collectives in Eastern India and Nepal: Process,benefits, and challenges

Do farmers' collectives, which pool land, labour, capital, and skills to create medium‐sized production units, offer a more viable model of farming for resource‐constrained smallholders than individual family farms? A participatory action research project in Eastern India and Nepal provides notable answers. Groups of marginal and tenant farmers, catalysed by the project, evolved into four different collective models with varying levels of cooperation, gender composition, and land ownership/tenancy status. Based on 3 years of action research, this paper examines how the models evolved and their differential outcomes. All groups have gained from cultivating contiguous plots in their efficiency of labour and machine use for land preparation and irrigation, and from economies in input purchase. Several collectives of tenant farmers have also enhanced their bargaining power vis‐a‐vis an entrenched landlord class and thus been able to negotiate lower rents and refuse long‐standing feudal obligations. However, the models differ in their extent of economic gain and their ability to handle gender inequalities and conflicts over labour sharing. The paper explores the historical, regional, and cultural factors that could explain such differences across the models. It thus offers unique insights into the processes, benefits, and challenges of farmers' collectives and provides pointers for replication and further research.     

农业绿色水资源利用与农业经济增长脱钩关系研究

[目的]探究全国不同区域农业绿色水资源利用效率及其与农业经济增长间的脱钩关系,期望为农业绿色发展以及推动农业高质量发展提供决策参考。[方法]文章借助全局超效率SBM模型测算出农业绿色水资源利用效率,并依据灰水足迹理论计算出农业灰水足迹,应用脱钩理论及其脱钩程度判定标准,测算中国31个省域的农业绿色水资源利用与经济增长的脱钩程度。[结果]（1）我国的农业绿色水资源利用效率有待提升且存在地区差异,东部沿海地区农业绿色水资源利用效率较高,西部最低;（2）我国农业绿色水资源利用效率与农业经济增长的脱钩状态呈现阶段性并存在区域差异。2008—2015年四大区域普遍处于弱脱钩状态,但2016年之后,各个区域的二者脱钩状态开始呈现扩张性负脱钩,农业绿色水资源利用效率和农业经济增长的脱钩状态趋于缓和。[结论]应深入贯彻绿色发展理念并坚持因地制宜,合理应对区域水资源绿色利用和农业经济增长的关系。     

The Local Impacts of Agricultural Subsidies: Evidence from the Canadian Prairies

We estimate the impact of removing an export subsidy on the local economies of Alberta, Saskatchewan and Manitoba, exploiting the large regional variation of a 1995 reform. We find that the loss of the subsidy resulted in significantly lower farm value‐added, farm asset values and local non‐farm employment. The results suggest that the subsidy removal had detrimental spillover effects on the local non‐agricultural economy that varied spatially across the Prairies. The point estimates suggest that the marginal effect of the subsidy loss on non‐agricultural employment was five times as large as those obtained from traditional estimates of the multiplier effect.     

Natural resource accounting in theory and practice: A critical assessment

In this paper an extensive review of the theoretical and applied literature on natural resource accounting (NRA) is provided. The review begins by explaining the economic theory that underpins NRA, contrasting welfare and sustainability as policy goals, and presenting various distinct conceptions of national income. The state of play regarding official revisions to the system of national accounts (SNA) with respect to natural resources and the environment is presented and controversial areas are highlighted. Finally, the economic literature on proposed revisions, and applied studies that have proceeded using these methods, is summarised and critiqued. We argue that much of the literature proceeds with weak conceptual foundations, and that typical case studies produce results that are ambiguous in interpretation. Moreover, we highlight fundamental tensions between economic theory and national accounting methodology, and conclude that one outcome of this has been the insufficient attention paid by economists to the revisions to the SNA; instead devoting time and effort to 'freelance' NRA case studies utilising sometimes ad hoc methods from the economic literature.     

鲁南经济带现代农业可持续发展研究

鲁南经济带在区位、资源、交通、产业发展等方面具有发展现代农业的优势,面临着东亚经济一体化趋势加快、国家惠农政策的实施、全国主体功能区规划和区域发展战略的实施等发展的良机,也存在着经济发展水平较低、城市化水平不高、县域经济落后、产业结构不合理和现代农业发展落后等问题.因此,应在政府大力支持下,搞好规划,整合资源,增加投入...