Local economic impacts of an unconventional energy boom: the coal seam gas industry in Australia

Complementing the scarce economic literature about local impacts of energy extraction booms, this paper empirically investigates economic outcomes related to the new coal seam gas (CSG) industry located across southern Queensland. This Australian state has seen an unprecedented inflow of investments into the extraction of this previously unexploited unconventional natural gas over the last decade. We analyse census data to study income and employment effects associated with the CSG boom, exploiting the quasi‐experimental conditions provided by CSG extraction areas (treatment regions) and regions without this development (control regions). Findings show that treatment regions have higher income growth than control areas during 2001–2011 for families residing locally and for individuals present on census night. Employment in the mining sector also shows higher growth as has non‐mining employment in some areas. We include comparisons between CSG areas with no major mining history (the Surat basin) and CSG areas where mining was important before the CSG boom (the Bowen basin), to better understand boom effects in areas with different initial mining industry importance in their economies. Local job multipliers are also analysed for Surat basin CSG areas, where positive impacts (job spillovers) are restricted to construction and professional services jobs, while agricultural jobs have decreased.     

Sweetness and Power – Public Policies and the ‘Biofuels Frenzy’

Sweetness and Power – Public Policies and the ‘Biofuels Frenzy’ In the last decade, there has been a huge policy‐led expansion in biofuels production and consumption. This paper presents some of the findings of a funded research project which has sought to identify the drivers of biofuels policies over this period. It focuses on the EU, US and Brazil which, together, represent about 90 per cent of global biofuels markets. Biofuels policies have three key drivers: as a partial substitute for fossil fuels, to lower greenhouse gas emissions; as a way of improving energy security, by diversifying away from fossil fuels and from the limited number of countries with fossil‐fuel reserves; and as a means of promoting rural development, given the opportunities offered by the production of biofuel feedstocks and their processing into biofuels. One particular challenge for both the EU and US has been to create and sustain a broad coalition of stakeholder interests in support of biofuels and biofuel policies. Both have sought to promote ‘conventional’ biofuels now, whilst trying to aid the development of ‘advanced’ biofuels industries that will address problems with existing technologies. The continued failure to deliver significant quantities of advanced biofuels raises questions for biofuels policymakers going forward, not least dealing with the downsides of conventional biofuels that, so far, have not been mitigated by a successful transition to advanced biofuels.     

Local ecological knowledge reveals effects of policy-driven land use and cover change on beekeepers in Costa Rica

Land use and cover (LUC) change is a major driver of ecosystem service loss worldwide. In response, policymakers have designed conservation strategies that incentivize the establishment and maintenance of LUC types associated with higher ecosystem service provision. Many of these policies also aim to promote social and economic goals such as reducing poverty. Attempts to measure the impact of policy-driven LUC change on stakeholders typically focus only on economic outcomes for landowning participants or aggregate the socio-economic outcomes of diverse groups. In this study, we applied local ecological knowledge (LEK) held by beekeepers in Costa Rica to understand the impact of policy-driven LUC change on this specific group of often non-landowning stakeholders. Beekeeping is a globally important rural livelihood and provides pollination services to crops and wild plants. We synthesized beekeeper LEK using a mixed-methods approach including apiary mapping exercises (n = 215 apiaries), questionnaires (n = 50 participants), and follow-up interviews (n = 21 participants). Our study revealed that some policy-driven LUC changes have limited beekeepers’ access to preferred land uses, such as secondary and mature forests with native trees. Participants reported concern for their livelihoods due to policy-driven spatial and temporal change of floral resources via the establishment of tree plantations, changes in pasture management, and laws that prohibit beekeeping in national parks and reserves. Our study provides evidence of unintended outcomes from land use policies, including Payment for Ecosystem Services, with disproportionate negative impacts on non-landowning residents who depend on natural resources in the landscape for their livelihoods. Our study illustrates potential inequality rising from current incentive mechanisms associated with Payments for Ecosystem Services and other conservation policies and calls for policymakers to consider LUC change impacts on non-landowning stakeholders.     

Rethinking Organic Farming in the Post‐Socialist Context: Lessons from Bulgaria

On the basis of an in‐depth qualitative study, this article discusses the case of Bulgaria as an example of a new EU Member State that implemented EU organic farming policies in a top‐down process during EU accession. We explore the difficulties in transposing a concept originating in Western Europe to post‐Socialist countries, and particularly ask what this transposing of an alien concept means for long‐term development of the organic sector. We found that the top‐down agenda‐setting for organic farming in Bulgaria resulted in inefficient policies that inhibited an orientation of producers towards the market's needs. Tacit assumptions underlying the concept of organic farming in Western Europe, such as the relevance of social capital could not be sustained in Bulgaria, which added to the challenges of policy implementation. To increase policy efficiency, we recommend a policy process that involves the expertise of all organic sector actors, including organic operators, but also policymakers, organic organisations, consumers and academic experts. Expertise and knowledge requirements are diverse, touching policy, market, collective action and practice‐oriented skills. Integrating these skills could maximise success in finding the best solution for implementing – and adjusting – a foreign concept meaningfully in a particular local context.     

From Extensive to Involutionary Growth: A Dialectic Interpretation of the Boom and Busts of Cocoa Production in the Gold Coast

African economic history has undergone impressive revitalization in the past decade. Much of the recent work is, quite naturally, inspired by developments in economic history at large, and increasingly – indirectly or directly – using markets as the organizing principle in understanding how economies evolve over time. More specifically, recent work assumes that markets create the possibility to use resources more efficiently, which, theoretically, enables economies to grow as long as institutions adjust and enable the population to exploit the arising opportunities. That is, the current works in African economic history are to a large extent grounded in Smithian growth models, labelled after Adam Smith's work on the mechanisms of long‐term growth. This paper critically discusses the explanatory value of the Smithian growth models for understanding the long‐term economic development in Africa. The latter is best described as recurrent growth episodes, and we argue that while Smithian models can account for initial periods of growth, they fail to explain why the growth was not sustained. We use the boom and busts of cocoa production in Ghana in the twentieth century as a case in point. We show that the decline in cocoa production was not caused by state policies distorting the functions of the markets, as the Smithian growth models suggest. Instead, the decline in production was an outcome of changes in the ecological and institutional conditions that caused the initial growth. The irony is that it was the initial growth in cocoa production that altered the conditions, making further growth in production impossible. We capture these changes – for the first time ever – by combining the concepts of forest rents and involutionary growth in an African case.     

Domestic Crop Booms,Livelihood Pathways and Nested Transitions: Charting the Implications of Bangladesh's Pangasius Boom

Rapidly transforming Asian food systems are oriented largely towards domestic markets, yet literature on Asian crop booms deals almost exclusively with commodities produced for export. With reference to pangasius aquaculture in Bangladesh, we argue that ‘domestic crop booms’ – agricultural booms driven by domestic demand – are contributing to rapid social and ecological transformations in Asia and across the globe. We adopt a comparative multi‐scalar approach, and develop the concept of ‘livelihood pathways’ as a means of understanding agrarian change associated with crop booms. The study reveals sharply divergent patterns of social change resulting from the pangasius boom, as experienced in two different village settings, despite underlying similarities in the processes of commodification evident in both. In addition to drawing attention to domestic crop booms and the diversity of transitions in which they result, the paper demonstrates the value of comparative multi‐scalar analytical approaches and the importance of livelihood pathways in processes of agrarian change.     

International trade and agricultural development in developing countries: Significance of the Uruguay Round of GATT negotiations

Liberalization of world trade in agricultural products ranks high on the agenda of the Uruguay Round. After a period of more than six years, however, the negotiations have not been concluded. Nevertheless, an outcome seems to be in sight. The agreement will most likely not result in a move to freer trade. It seems that domestic policies will become even more regulative than in the past in an attempt to cut exportable surpluses and to ease trade tensions among the main exporting nations. This paper explores possible impacts of the GATT Round on agricultural development in developing countries. Agricultural development is more than only growth in agricultural production or productivity. However, it is argued in the paper that other variables which also indicate agricultural development are often closely correlated with growth in production and productivity. Trade in agricultural products is not always an engine for agricultural development. If internal divergences are not accounted for by appropriate domestic policies, trade may be even harmful to agricultural development. Hence, empirical research based on cross-country analysis does not provide a clear answer about the role of trade for development. Past policies in industrialized countries have most likely had a negative effect on developing countries as a group; however, the effects differ widely across countries. Liberalization policies in industrialized countries would not just reverse these negative effects for developing countries. Price reduction in industrialized countries may not result in the often-cited production decline in the short term. Present X-inefficiency in agriculture will be reduced by liberalization, leading to an outward shift of the supply curve. Hence, liberalization may not lead to higher world market prices for temperate-zone products in the short and medium term. Apart from this, empirical models differ widely in the price effects they predict. The expected outcome of the Uruguay Round – increased regulation of domestic policies – is likely both more negative for developing countries than past protectionist policies and worse than an overall liberalization. World market prices will increase, uncertainty and instability can be expected to grow, and food aid may become less available. There will be a need to react to these challenges with measures on the international and national level. Initiatives to deal with food crises in developing countries and to stimulate liberalization in developing countries should be considered. Finally, developing countries should be made aware that their own domestic policies have a much greater economic impact than policies in other countries, even if the latter are as protectionist as current agricultural policies in the industrialized world.     

Strange bedfellows or an aligning of values? Exploration of stakeholder values in an alliance of concerned citizens against coal seam gas mining

In the inter-stakeholder relations in environmental and natural resource management disputes, farmers and environmentalists have traditionally fallen along opposing lines arguably due to seemingly incompatible values and fundamental differences between the groups. However, the expansion of the coal seam gas (CSG) industry has resulted in outrage and opposition from farming groups, environmentalists, and communities, leading to an alliance of these “strange bedfellows”. This study explored the opposition movement to CSG in Australia with the use of techniques from social psychology to investigate whether shared values provided the common ground for the alliance. An online survey of values was conducted (N = 197) with members of the CSG opposition alliance. No evidence was found to support the hypothesis that this alliance of stakeholders is comprised of two distinct sub-groups; farmers and environmentalists. The personal values of the respondents were highly inter-compatible, and aligned with social altruism. Sub-clusters were identified which corresponded with the extent to which respondents considered the CSG industry to impact on their lives. This research challenges the appropriateness of predetermined stakeholder classifications being applied to environmental and natural resource management issues, and highlights values as a relevant social factor in the cooperation potential of oft-conflicting stakeholder groups.     

Australian wine industry competitiveness: why so slow to emerge?

Despite favourable growing conditions, Australia's production or exports of wine did not become significant until the 1890s. Both grew in the 1920s, but only because of government support. Once that support was removed in the late 1940s, production plateaued and exports diminished: only two per cent of wine production was exported during 1975–1985. Yet over the next two decades, Australia's wine production quadrupled and the share exported rose to two‐thirds – before falling somewhat in the next 10 years. This paper explains why it took so long for Australia's production and competitive advantage in wine to emerge, why it took off spectacularly after the mid‐1980s and why it fell in the 10 years to 2016. It concludes that despite the recent downturn in the industry's fortunes, the country's international competitiveness is now firmly established and commensurate with its ideal wine‐growing climate, notwithstanding the likelihood of further boom‐slump cycles in the decades ahead.     

国有林区改革对生物质能源发展的影响

在理论层面,国有林区改革引发新能源政策指导思想从以经济效益为主到生态效益与经济效益并重的跨越式发展,加速生物质能源政策的制定与推行;在实践层面,国有林区改革实施的指导意见促进生物质能源政策的具体化与细致化,为生物质能源在财税补贴、能源林种植奖励、生物发电及技术研发等方面的政策制定提供了参考建议,带动了生物质能源相关产业的发展,为改善民生和保护生态提供了强大的助力。     

Enhancing food security in South Sudan: the role of markets and regional trade

South Sudan faces serious problems of food insecurity due to low levels of domestic food production, periodic droughts, widespread poverty, and since late 2013, renewed armed conflict. This article explores market price behavior using cointegration analysis and estimates the effects of production and trade shocks through multimarket model simulations. We show that market prices in the capital city, Juba, of both maize and sorghum are cointegrated with import parity prices of these cereals sourced from Uganda, consistent with observed trade flows. Model simulations, using econometrically estimated demand parameters, suggest that private sector imports of maize and wheat would greatly mitigate the potential fall in consumption in the case of a decline in domestic cereal production. Other simulations indicate that if total imports of cereals are reduced by one‐third (still more than two times the levels of food aid in 2013) because of disruptions to private market flows, domestic prices of cereals could rise by 45% or more. The article concludes that whatever measures are taken involving national food security reserves, it is crucial that government policy serves to maintain incentives for private sector imports to avoid destabilizing market supplies, domestic prices, and ultimately, food consumption of the poor.     

Food Grain Policies in India and their Implications for Stocks and Fiscal Costs: A Dynamic Partial Equilibrium Analysis

We analyse current and possible future reforms of the Indian food policies for the most important staple grains, wheat and rice, within a two‐commodity dynamic partial equilibrium model with stochastic shocks. The model is empirically grounded and reproduces past values well. It uses a new reduced‐form approach to capture private storage dynamics. We evaluate the implementation of the National Food Security Act (NFSA) under several policy measures with the current regime as well as two scenarios with a regime change – implementation of cash transfers and deficiency payments. Implications for market fundamentals and fiscal costs are simulated in the medium term – until 2020/21. The NFSA puts a high pressure on fiscal costs and public stocks. Relying on imports with low support prices results in low fiscal costs and stable, but higher domestic and international prices, and a high risk of zero stocks. A policy strategy to manipulate procurement prices in order to maintain public stocks close to the norms leads to slightly higher fiscal costs with lower, but more volatile prices. The highest domestic price volatility occurs under a strategy which uses export bans in order to maintain sufficient public stocks. A cash‐based regime can bring considerable savings and curb fiscal costs, particularly if targeted to the poor, and would leave sufficient stocks due to higher private stocks.     

A novel model to estimate the impact of Coal Seam Gas extraction on agro-economic returns

There is an ever growing demand for energy worldwide and the demand for gas alone is predicted to double between 2010 and 2035. This demand together with concurrent advances in drilling technologies caused the production of unconventional natural gas such as shale gas and coal seam gas (CSG), which is in the focus of this paper, to grow rapidly in the last decades. With the gas bearing coal seams extending across vast areas within their respective basins and with CSG production having to follow these seams through a network of production wells, pipelines and access roads, CSG activity affects large areas and therefore interferes with existing land uses, predominantly agriculture. For the eastern Australian Surat Basin and the southern Bowen Basin alone there are projected well numbers in excess of 15,000 to 20,000 between the years 2020 and 2030. The interference of CSG with agriculture on a large scale has raised concerns about the impact of CSG on farmland, food security, water resources and the socio-economic environment within the affected regions and beyond. This paper presents a newly developed spatial model which provides order of magnitude figures of the impact of CSG activity on gross economic returns of current agricultural land uses in a given region over the time of CSG production. The estimated gross figures do not account for any compensation payments received by farmers. The model is capable of accounting for a variation in a variety of parameters including impact frequency of distinct infrastructure elements, differences in soil types and associated varying responses of soil productivity, varying length of the CSG production phase and more. The model is flexible in that it can be transferred and applied in other regions as well. Based upon a literature review and given that CSG is an industry that started operating at larger scales relatively recently, we claim that the presented model is the first of its kind to provide these important agro-economic indicators.     

Foreign direct investment‐facilitated development: the case of the natural gas industry of Trinidad and Tobago

Since the last decade, governments in less‐developed countries have increasingly viewed foreign direct investment (FDI) as a catalyst for economic growth and transformation. The early literature argues that FDI‐facilitated development occurs when a less‐developed country assimilates, adapts and diffuses the positive externalities arising from the interaction of the multinational enterprise's (MNE) ownership advantage with its locational attributes. This paper, however, posits that FDI‐facilitated development is not an effortless process. It occurs only when host developing‐country governments implement intervention policies that are aimed at increasing indigenous technological capabilities. These policies enhance the absorptive capacity of host countries, allowing them to capture the spillovers arising from the MNE activities. The paper explores this for Trinidad and Tobago, a recipient of substantial FDI inflows in its natural gas industry for the last decade. It shows that FDI‐facilitated development only occurs when governments in less‐developed countries pursue credible intervention policies.     

West and Central African iron ore development and its impact on world prices

The focus of the paper is on the potential of iron ore supplies from West and Central Africa to enter the export market over the short and medium terms and how this could impact the supply‐side capacity and market price. To assess this, three export development scenarios (low, medium and high risk) are constructed for 17 iron ore mines (over 27 production expansion projects) in West and Central Africa. The projections for African iron ore are compared with the latest medium‐term import forecasts and suggest that the development of West and Central African iron ore has the potential to create significant downward pressure on the price of iron ore exports over the medium term. The increased export capacity could push marginal producers – mainly in China but also in India and elsewhere – out of the market.     

Mining booms and the exchange rate

The balance of payments identity linking the current account to net domestic investment and foreign capital inflows is used as a framework to assess the effects of a mining boom on the exchange rate. The exchange rate response is found to vary with whether the boom is generated by an increase in global demand or an increase in domestic supply, and the response varies over time as the boom moves through investment and production stages. Also, the exchange rate response depends on the mix of resident and nonresident investment funds, the share of the investment domestically sourced and the distribution of windfall income and its expenditure. A key result is the absence of a simple relationship between the terms of trade and the exchange rate.     

Market integration between surplus and deficit rice markets during global food crisis period

Applying the maximum‐likelihood method of co‐integration, this study analysed spatial market integration between an adjacent rice surplus market (India) and deficit markets (Bangladesh and Nepal). The main focus is on the government policies of these three rice‐producing countries which have been imposed to reduce domestic price volatilities in rice markets during the recent ‘global food crisis’ in 2007–2008. The co‐integration tests find that domestic rice prices of India, Bangladesh and Nepal are integrated both in short‐run and long‐run periods despite the imposition of export restriction policies by India. The reason that prices are transmitted so effectively is most likely to be the widespread informal cross‐border trade through the porous borders among India, Bangladesh and Nepal.     

China’s poverty alleviation over the last 40 years: successes and challenges

Over the past 40 years, China has made significant progress towards its poverty alleviation goals. The rural population under the current poverty line has decreased by 739.9 million. China has contributed to more than 70 per cent of world poverty reduction. To better promote the new anti‐poverty strategy and to serve as a reference for poverty alleviation in other developing countries, this paper summarises the main experiences of China’s poverty alleviation over the past 40 years and then discusses the challenges associated with implementing the targeted poverty alleviation policy in the new era. China’s experience with poverty alleviation includes development‐oriented poverty alleviation, improving self‐development capabilities of the poor population, encouraging multiple subjects to participate in poverty alleviation and focusing on innovation and ways to improve poverty alleviation. Although China’s poverty alleviation initiatives have achieved significant successes, there are still several challenges that should be of concern in the coming years, such as the diminishing marginal effect of financial inputs on poverty alleviation, the resulting negative incentives for the poor to improve their internal motivations and the insufficient participation of markets and social forces in poverty alleviation. Given these challenges, this paper provides suggestions for anti‐poverty policies beyond 2020.     

Does China's demand boom curb Australian iron ore mining depletion?

Australia's resources boom is underpinned by increased demand from industrialising China and a rise in export prices. Current depletion rates will soon exhaust currently known reserves of iron ore and coal. This paper presents a dynamic optimisation model of a growing open economy where a social planner chooses the time path for depletion of a non‐renewable resource during a demand‐led resources boom. We find that for particular functional forms and in the absence of extraction and social costs, the optimal depletion rate equals the difference between the price elasticity of export demand times the world interest rate and growth in export demand. In contrast to the existing literature, we show that the optimal depletion rate is unaffected by a temporary increase in price, but reduced by growth in demand which is in turn sustained by offshore steel production and urbanisation. The main theoretical implication is that growth in export demand from China reduces the depletion rate. Australian iron ore exports, simulated using this theory, move together with actual volumes over the period 1995–2011, and the error between simulated and actual iron ore exports is lower for the model in this paper than it is for the model without growth in export demand.     

Impact of foreign direct investment on greenhouse gas emissions in agriculture of developing countries

This research analyses the impact of foreign direct investment on greenhouse gas emissions in the agriculture sector of developing countries. Panel data from 63 developing countries for the period 2005 to 2014 was used to estimate a dynamic econometric model by applying a system‐generalised method of moments. The empirical results indicate a positive impact of foreign direct investment in agriculture on the carbon dioxide equivalent emission intensity in developing countries. The results provide weak support for the pollution havens hypothesis and imply the importance of coordination between foreign direct investment and environmental policies.