Assistance to Australian agriculture from Federation to World War II

This paper quantifies the levels of assistance received by producers of the major agricultural crops and animal products in Australia from Federation to the end of World War II. We outline the history of government assistance to the sector after Federation. Six measures of assistance are examined. Then the nominal rates of assistance from these measures are calculated for 20 agricultural products, 14 of which are classified as exportables and 6 as importables. From these product measures of assistance, we construct a series of the production‐weighted average nominal rate of assistance for the group of exportable products and for the group of importable products and for the whole sector. Our results show that, from the time of Federation, the pattern of assistance to the sector discriminated persistently and heavily against the exportable agricultural products.     

Loss of preferential access to the protected EU sugar market: Fiji's response

The Fijian government's response since 2010 to the loss of preferential access to the European Union's previously highly protected sugar market has been to increasingly support its cane growers and millers. That support is now much higher than most other countries' assistance to the sugar industry. This study provides detailed estimates of the changing extent of those transfers to producers from both taxpayers and consumers during 2010–22. In doing so, it estimates for the first time an annual time series of nominal rates of assistance to producers and consumer tax equivalent rates (NRAs and CTEs, but they are also converted to producer and consumer support estimates as defined by the OECD). Those NRA and CTE estimates have been approaching 100%. The level of support was equivalent to 10% of Fiji's agricultural value added in 2018–21 and is around 5% of its government's consolidated revenue—at a time when the government has a very high debt-to-GDP ratio (90% in 2022). Since the nature of the support is economically inefficient, inequitable, environmentally damaging and fiscally unsustainable given foreseeable market prospects, suggestions are made as to how that support might be repurposed to provide better economic, social and environmental outcomes for Fiji.     

Modeling and Extrapolating Wheat Producer Support Using Income and Other Factors

Using wheat market support data from 55 countries for 1961–2011 from the World Bank Agricultural Distortion database, we develop a fixed effect model that shows a more complicated, nonlinear relationship between income and wheat support and its components than previously realised. We find that income generally has a greater effect on border market price support than on domestic price support. Moreover, the difference between these types of support is greater for net importers than for net exporters and has increased with the URAA or WTO accession. Holding other variables constant, the wheat support level of China, driven mainly by border market price support, is projected to rise with future income growth. Meanwhile, Japan is projected to maintain its high level of support, while the US and EU are projected to maintain their lower levels of support. These results are relevant in the context of multilateral trade negotiations, arguing against a narrow focus on past or current policy profiles and for long‐run analyses that might mistakenly rest on the inconsistent assumptions of constant agricultural policies against the backdrop of rising incomes.     

The future of Russia’s agriculture and food industry between global opportunities and technological restrictions

This paper reports on the result of a major foresight exercise commissioned by the Ministry of Agriculture of the Russian Federation on the prospective developments of the agriculture and food industry up to the year 2030. The exercise identified economic, technological, social and ecological trends that will greatly influence both supply and demand in the industry. The findings provide a decision base for policy-makers to improve the technology base and to ease the reliance on technology imports. The country’s agricultural producers have been struggling with the introduction of new technologies, and customers are showing conservative demand patterns. Previous research showed that technology transfer into Russian agricultural enterprises suffers from a low knowledge level especially in receiving organizations. The country’s own S&T system requires support both for technology development and technology transfer, especially for breeding of best-suited plants and animals for local circumstances. Furthermore, consumer behaviour could be influenced towards higher demand, for example, organic food or ethical husbandry.     

Labour Migration and Gendered Agricultural Relations: The Feminization of Agriculture in the Ejidal Sector of Calakmul,Mexico

We examine the nature of the ‘feminization of agriculture’ in the semi‐subsistence, peasant production sector of southeastern Mexico, as associated with male labour out‐migration. Presenting findings from empirical work with smallholder producers, we discuss the impact of men's migration to the United States on women's participation in agriculture and gendered relations of agricultural production. In 2007, we conducted a survey of 155 semi‐subsistence, smallholder households in six ejidos. This survey was supplemented by ethnographic research in a single ejido. Our findings demonstrate the need to distinguish between farm labour and management in this sector, and the potentially significant (but focused) changes in the local relations of agricultural production wrought by gendered patterns of labour migration – specifically in tenure, land‐use decision‐making and the management of hired labour.     

Land use and economic effects of alternative biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States

Being the two largest ethanol producers in the world, biofuel policies in Brazil and the United States affect both their domestic markets and the global food and biofuel economy. In this article we develop a price endogenous mathematical programming model to simulate and analyze the impacts of biofuel mandates and trade distortions on land use, agricultural commodity and transportation fuel markets, and global environment. We find that an 80% increase in total biofuel production from its 103 billion liter baseline level to the mandated 183 billion liter level in 2022 can be achieved with less than 2% increase in total cropland use in both countries. In the United States, this would occur with cellulosic biofuels meeting nearly half of the biofuels consumed and produced largely on cropland pasture and corn ethanol meeting the rest of the mandate and resulting in a 2% increase in corn price. In Brazil, the expansion in sugarcane production would be achieved by reducing land under pasture and a marginal increase in intensification of livestock production. In the aggregate, biofuel policies increase economic surplus in both countries by 1% and redistribute the benefits from agricultural consumers to agricultural producers and the fuel sector. Finally, we also find that full implementation of the mandates in North America, China, and the European Union would reduce the global life‐cycle global greenhouse gas emissions by about 5%.     

The effect of barge and ocean freight price volatility in international grain markets

Short‐run responses of export and domestic shares of total agricultural output to changes in stocks of domestic savings (SAV), development assistance (ODA), private foreign commercial capital (PFX) and other variables is investigated. A profit function approach is used. Time series data for 19 sub‐Saharan African countries are pooled into three panels using similarities in changes in economic policy regime. Statistical evidence suggests that for the panel of countries that were undertaking liberalized economic reforms, the slope coefficients of some of the variables in the models have changed significantly between 1970–1980 and 1981–1993. For the 1981–1993 period, the impacts of ODA, PFX and SAV on export and domestic shares were different for this panel. The effect of increases in agricultural labor was different across the three panels. There is also evidence that productivity growth in the export agriculture sub‐sector is negative in all the groups. It is recommended that to halt the decline in export share of agricultural output in the group of countries that have undertaken substantial improvements in economic policy environment, efforts must be made to reduce the negative impact of domestic savings and agricultural labor, while at the same time working to reduce the bias of development assistance against food security.     

Preface

The paper examines the main issues surrounding distributional effects in the domains of natural resource management and land policies, agricultural technology and research policies, agricultural market and trade policies, and consumer‐oriented policies, including standards, subsidies, and labeling. Agriculture is drifting into an ever more drastic bifurcation at a global level and within many countries. Correcting that bifurcation will require large investments in rural areas and rural people, in institutions, and in information and biological technologies accessible by the poor in the world's smallholder sector. Large and growing national and international inequalities related to agriculture and rural areas threaten peace, growth, and sustainable development.     

State‐contingent analysis of farmers’ response to weather variability: irrigated dairy farming in the Murray Valley,Australia

The agricultural sector is commonly regarded as one of the most vulnerable to climate change. Current understanding of the impact of climate change on this sector relies on the underlying assumptions about farmers’ possible responses to weather variability, including changes in crop choice, input combinations and land management practices. Many previous analyses rely on the implicit (and restrictive) assumption that farmers operate under a fixed technology set across different states of nature. This assumption, represented through stochastic production or profit functions, is commonly made but seldom tested and may understate farmers’ responses to climate change if state‐contingent production technologies are, in reality, more flexible. The potential for farmers to adapt production technologies in response to unforeseen events is at the core of the state‐contingent approach. Advanced in Chambers and Quiggin (2000), the theory contends that producers can manage uncertainty through the allocation of productive inputs to different states of nature. In this article, we test the assumption that farmers’ observed behaviour is consistent with the state‐contingent production theory using farm‐level data from Australia. More precisely, we estimate the milk production technology for a sample of irrigated dairy farms from the southern Murray–Darling Basin over the period from 2006–2007 to 2009–2010.     

Tracking urban sprawl: Using spatial data to inform farmland preservation policy

The development of state farmland preservation policies has primarily relied upon results of the Census of Agriculture that is updated every 5 years by the USDA National Agriculture Statistics Service. Questions about the suitability of the Census of Agriculture center on the measures of total farmland and total cropland as reported by agricultural producers. The reliance on these variables fails to distinguish between conversion to developed uses and other fluctuations in the total availability of farmland. This inability to directly measure farmland conversion to developed uses has been shown to influence state level farmland preservation policies. The policies of Illinois and Indiana highlight the disparate approaches, with Illinois pursuing an intensive policy to protect farmland and Indiana choosing to not address farmland preservation at a state level. In order to assess the suitability of the different approaches to farmland preservation policy it is critical to evaluate the Census of Agriculture data used to justify the policies of Illinois and Indiana.     

Weaving cotton‐led development? Liberalization,cotton producer organizations,and uneven development in Burkina Faso

This article argues that the politics of scale in a nested hierarchy of cotton governance institutions in Burkina Faso are weighted against smaller producers, with what looks like success from a broader scale producing uneven development at the local scale. We show that at the national level, Burkina Faso has succeeded in increasing its output of cotton lint. At the local level, we see a differentiated outcome where the liberalization‐initiated system of shared liability has improved overall cotton cooperative management but this has come at a significant cost: the exit of poorer farmers from the cotton sector and an increasing debt burden on those individual farmers who remain. The novelty of this article is that it considers producers' institutions as a key level of analysis linking macro‐scale policy decisions to micro‐scale village and farm outcomes. The resulting analysis allows us to focus on the politics of scale, particularly the power relations of different actors and the ability to capture resources at different levels, as well as the role of multilevel institutions in producing differentiated outcomes.     

Trade liberalisation and greenhouse gas emissions: the case of dairying in the European Union and New Zealand*

The link between trade and the environment has aroused considerable interest both in terms of the impact of trade liberalisation on the environment, and also the impact of environmental policy on production and trade. Of key environmental concern at present is global warming and its association with greenhouse gas emissions. Agriculture is a sector of the economy that both contributes to, and will be affected by, climate change. This paper models the impact of agricultural trade liberalisation on greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture around the world, focusing particularly on the effects on New Zealand, a small economy highly dependent on agricultural trade. A partial equilibrium agricultural multicountry, multicommodity trade model is used for the analysis, extended to include physical production systems and their greenhouse gas emissions. Two simulations are performed: removal of agricultural policies in the EU and in all OECD countries. The results indicate that although producer returns in New Zealand increase, greenhouse gas emissions also increase significantly. EU producers face lower returns but also lower greenhouse gas emissions.     

Structural transformation and smallholder agriculture: an information‐theoretic analysis of the Nicaraguan case

In light of continued debate regarding the capacity of small‐scale agricultural producers to compete amidst globalization and/or liberalization, we examine recent trends in the distribution and use of agricultural landholdings in developing nations via refined exploration of the Nicaraguan case. With nationally‐representative, Living Standards Measurement Survey‐type data for the years 1998, 2001, and 2005, we employ Markov chain methods within an information‐theoretic framework in an attempt to advance the analysis of structural transformation in developing countries beyond the examination of trends in mean farm sizes or Gini coefficients, approaches ill‐suited to the detection of the apparent complexities of structural change. Further, while Markov chain analysis has witnessed relatively widespread application in the investigation of structural transformation in developed nations, we offer a novel methodological extension by allowing for the simultaneous exploration of structural transformation across multiple dimensions–namely, structural change in both the distribution and use of agricultural landholdings—as well as the incorporation of microlevel determinants of farm size and land use change. The results of the inquiry, above all, suggest that Nicaragua's agricultural and livestock sector is characterized by a definitive persistence of smallholders. While a moderate tendency toward bifurcation in the distribution of landholdings would appear to obscure any immediate relationship between operational landholdings and land productivity, we contend that such trends are, in fact, consistent with the often observed inverse farm size‐productivity relationship.     

On the Segregation of Genetically Modified,Conventional and Organic Products in European Agriculture: A Multi‐market Equilibrium Analysis

Evaluating the possible benefits of the introduction of genetically modified (GM) crops must address the issue of consumer resistance as well as the complex regulation that has ensued. In the European Union (EU), this regulation envisions the co‐existence of GM food with conventional and quality‐enhanced products, mandates the labelling and traceability of GM products and allows only a stringent adventitious presence of GM content in other products. All these elements are brought together within a partial equilibrium model of the EU agricultural food sector. The model comprises conventional, GM and organic food. Demand is modelled in a novel fashion, whereby organic and conventional products are treated as horizontally differentiated but GM products are vertically differentiated (weakly inferior) relative to conventional ones. Supply accounts explicitly for the land constraint at the sector level and for the need for additional resources to produce organic food. Model calibration and simulation allow insights into the qualitative and quantitative effects of the large‐scale introduction of GM products in the EU market. We find that the introduction of GM food reduces overall EU welfare, mostly because of the associated need for costly segregation of non‐GM products, but the producers of quality‐enhanced products actually benefit.     

Contracting Institutions,Agro‐food Trade and Product Quality

The agro‐food sector has experienced a profound transformation of contractual arrangements along the value chain, coinciding with important technological innovations and product quality upgrading. Our understanding of the impact that this transformation has had on trade flows in the agricultural sector is very limited. In particular, we have limited knowledge about the extent to which the patterns in agro‐food trade have been driven by the quality of contractual institutions. Using existing measures which capture the sensitivity of agro‐food products to contractual imperfections, we show that countries with better contract enforcement specialise in the production of food which requires higher level of relationship‐specific investments. We also find that countries with better contracting institutions and producing contract‐intensive goods specialise in exporting high quality foods. In addition, we show that the quality of contracting institutions might importantly affect the process of product quality upgrading.     

THE COST OF FOOD MARKETING*

There exists a wealth of statistical data in the Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries and Food on agricultural structure and production, and on the consumption of food, much of which is well known and readily available to research workers outside. But much less is known about the manufacturing and distribution costs of food between the farm gate and the consumer. The purpose of this paper is to present aggregate data relating to food marketing, in much the same way that earlier contributions, notably to this Journal, have covered agricultural output and net income, and farm structure. Changes in the food marketing sector since the end of rationing are briefly set out and, following discussion of some of the conceptual problems involved, estimates are presented of the value added to food between farm or port and the retail level, and of the magnitude of the flows within the sector     

The economic role of Russia's subsistence agriculture in the transition process

In this article, we analyze the role of subsistence‐oriented agriculture in Russia in the 1990s. We start out by discussing the diverging economic effects of the growth of subsistence agriculture in Russia since the transition process started. The quantitative analysis of this sector's role is carried out by means of an applied computable general equilibrium (CGE) model applying a 1994 social accounting matrix (SAM) as base year data. The novelty of the article is to disaggregate primary agricultural production not by products but by farm types, which enables us to distinguish their institutional and economic characteristics. The model also explicitly differentiates between marketed and subsistence consumption or formal and informal marketing activities of agricultural producers. We simulate two ex post and two ex ante experiments. The results of the first backward‐looking experiment highlight that Russia's subsistence agriculture was an important buffer against further agricultural output declines during transition and, hence, against food insecurity. A simulation, which looks into the effects of a devaluation of the Russian ruble, shows that the financial crisis should have increased the relative competitiveness particularly of large‐scale crop farms versus small‐scale farms. Two forward‐looking experiments indicate that efficiency enhancing institutional change would benefit both large‐scale and small‐scale farms. However, within small‐scale agriculture, a shift from subsistence to commercial agriculture would take place.     

MARKETING MANAGEMENT AND THE FARMER

Agricultural marketing in the United Kingdom has been particularly topical over the last two years. A great deal of publicity has been given to the desirability of agricultural producers improving their marketing skills, with considerable support for this view coming from successive Ministers of Agriculture. However, it appears that farmers remain sceptical, and, in fact, little is known about the importance of marketing in the overall management of the farm. This paper analyses the importance of marketing management to the individual farmer, using the results of research designed specifically to investigate the use of marketing principles at the farm level.     

The Current State of the Russian Agricultural Sector

Russia's agriculture produces around 3.7 per cent of the country's GDP, employs 9.2 per cent of the national workforce and contributes around 6 per cent of the country's exports. The sector has shown remarkable resilience in the face of wider economic turbulence. Self‐sufficiency rates for the main agricultural commodities are relatively high. Agricultural exports have grown very significantly since 2000 especially for wheat and meslin (wheat and rye mixture). Meat production has been growing steadily, particularly in the poultry and pork sectors. Whilst the agri‐food sector has great potential to play an even more prominent role in Russia's economy, it suffers from relatively low productivity and an outdated technological base. The main drive for efficiency has come mainly from the relatively large‐scale agricultural firms, who generated more than half of the total value of agricultural output in 2016. Foreign policy instability, including economic sanctions, the devaluation of the national currency and declining economic growth have weakened the sector and caused an increase in the prices of imported goods and equipment. At the same time Russian products have replaced high value‐added imports and Russia's agricultural producers are expanding into new markets.     

Differentiated products and supply controls in the analysis of agricultural policy reform: the case of tobacco

With a multi-market model of the U.S. tobacco and cigarette industries, we analyze the impact of a reduction in the assistance to U.S. tobacco producers by relaxing production quotas with nonbinding price support and by lowering tariffs on tobacco imports. The results show the importance of incorporating differentiated product and supply control assumptions into agricultural policy analysis.