Announcement effects and the theory of storage: an empirical study of lumber futures

We investigate how lumber futures returns are affected by monthly housing starts announcements and analyze the dependence of the response on lumber inventories and time to delivery. To do so we develop a generalized least squares (GLS) method to jointly analyze simultaneously traded contracts. We find that increases in the unanticipated component of housing starts announcements increase returns on lumber futures contracts. Further, and as predicted by the theory of storage but previously unrecorded, the effects of housing starts shocks decline with lumber inventories. There is also a time-to-delivery effect: near-delivery contracts respond more sharply to housing starts news than do farther-out contracts.     

The components of the bid‐ask spread: Evidence from the corn futures market

This article examines whether USDA announcements and commodity index fund rolling activity have an impact on liquidity costs, measured by the bid‐ask spread. Using Huang and Stoll's (1997) model of liquidity costs, we estimate whether changes to liquidity costs are driven by its adverse selection, inventory, or order processing components. Commodity index fund roll activity reduces the asymmetric information cost component of liquidity cost due to an increased proportion of noninformation‐based trading, but the inventory cost component increases as (mostly long only) commodity index funds sell their nearby positions and buy the first deferred contract—raising liquidity providers’ risk of building a position. The sum of these two effects is that liquidity costs remain low during index fund roll periods, averaging one “tick” (0.25 cents). On USDA report release days, we find that informed traders raise the asymmetric information component of liquidity costs in the first hour after release, but the inventory cost component is reduced due to the increase in volume. Similar to index fund roll activity, liquidity costs on USDA report release days remain low, averaging one “tick”. Our findings that liquidity costs are minimally changed during USDA report releases and commodity index fund roll periods is consistent with other recent research on liquidity costs, but we show that what drives liquidity costs differs substantially depending on the circumstances surrounding daily trading.     

胶州湾填海造地海域折耗成本分析——基于使用者成本法

填海造地将海洋变成陆地,彻底改变了海域属性,造成海域资源的一次性折耗。论文基于使用者成本法,分别依据被填海域产生的土地价值和丧失的生态系统服务功能机会收益,对比计算胶州湾填海造地海域资源折耗成本。结果显示：2007～2011年,在4.3％折现率下,以填海生成的土地价值作为资源收益,胶州湾填海造地的海域资源折耗成本分别为4858～19464万元,同期征收的海域使用金占海域资源折耗成本的44％～58％;以被填海域生态系统服务价值作为海域资源收益,其折耗成本为4139～13506万元,同期征收的海域使用金占海域资源折耗成本的52％。93％。结果表明,填海造地的海域使用金未能完全反映被填海域的资源折耗成本。该结论可为围填海造地海域使用金征收标准的动态管理提供依据。     

A copula‐based approach to the simultaneous estimation of group and meta‐frontiers by constrained maximum likelihood

Existing approaches to the meta‐frontier estimation consist of two stages where the estimates of the local frontier parameters obtained in the first step are used to estimate meta‐frontier parameters by means of a linear or quadratic minimisation procedure in the second. Since it was shown by Schmidt (Review of Economics and Statistics 58: 238) that the second step is equivalent to constrained maximisation of a likelihood function, we extend this idea and offer a copula‐based approach to the estimation of the parameters of both meta‐ and group frontiers in a one‐step setting. In this way, we ensure a single data‐generating mechanism for the estimated parameters, expand the set of potential meta‐frontiers and account for the fact that shocks to the individual production units may be correlated with shocks to the local technological environment as a whole. We apply our estimation methodology to a data set on the world agriculture and find that the deviations from the group frontiers are positively correlated with deviations from the meta‐frontier, which is a conclusion that is impossible to reach without accounting for stochastic dependence between the two deviation types represented by a copula.     

The consequences of a human food pathogen vaccine on food demand: a calibrated partial‐equilibrium analysis of the U.S. beef market

Human vaccines against several common foodborne pathogens are being developed and could substantially alter consumer and producer behaviour in the markets for foods commonly afflicted by these pathogens. To understand the possible impacts of such an innovation, we derive and calibrate a partial‐equilibrium model using parameters for consumer vaccine uptake from stated‐preference work under an array of assumptions concerning industry moral hazard, consumer awareness and alternative preventive effort exercised by consumers. We simulate three scenarios in the U.S. beef sector: the introduction of a vaccine, the tightening of pathogen standards for beef production and the simultaneous introduction of both vaccinations and tighter standards. Our simulation shows that all policies can increase aggregate surplus given most calibrations; though, the largest effects are attributed to vaccine introductions, which reduce expected damages from foodborne illness among vaccinated consumers without shifting firm costs. However, unaware consumers and aware consumers who choose not to vaccinate experience no change in expected damages when a vaccine is introduced but face a higher price of food because of the stronger demand of food from vaccinated consumers.     

Promoting the role of farmer‐based organizations for value chain integration: the tension between a program's targeting and an organization's investment strategy

We use new data on 500 Farmer‐Based Organizations (FBOs) in Ghana and regression analysis to reveal determinants of collective investments and the case of the Millennium Development Authority's (MiDA) agricultural program in Ghana to demonstrate that development programs offering hard incentives may be counterproductive in promoting collective action. We show that when a program sets criteria for participation and offers in‐cash and in‐kind support to selected FBOs, it may promote rent‐seeking and crowd out equity capital formation. This is so because FBOs may have formed for the sole purpose of benefitting from incentives offered by the program and thus lack an economic justification, which is an important condition for progression through the cooperative life cycle. Further, by setting stringent participation criteria, the program may end up selecting younger organizations while it is the more consolidated organizations that are able to connect to business development services (BDS) and engage in more offensive collective action.     

Structural transformation and smallholder agriculture: an information‐theoretic analysis of the Nicaraguan case

In light of continued debate regarding the capacity of small‐scale agricultural producers to compete amidst globalization and/or liberalization, we examine recent trends in the distribution and use of agricultural landholdings in developing nations via refined exploration of the Nicaraguan case. With nationally‐representative, Living Standards Measurement Survey‐type data for the years 1998, 2001, and 2005, we employ Markov chain methods within an information‐theoretic framework in an attempt to advance the analysis of structural transformation in developing countries beyond the examination of trends in mean farm sizes or Gini coefficients, approaches ill‐suited to the detection of the apparent complexities of structural change. Further, while Markov chain analysis has witnessed relatively widespread application in the investigation of structural transformation in developed nations, we offer a novel methodological extension by allowing for the simultaneous exploration of structural transformation across multiple dimensions–namely, structural change in both the distribution and use of agricultural landholdings—as well as the incorporation of microlevel determinants of farm size and land use change. The results of the inquiry, above all, suggest that Nicaragua's agricultural and livestock sector is characterized by a definitive persistence of smallholders. While a moderate tendency toward bifurcation in the distribution of landholdings would appear to obscure any immediate relationship between operational landholdings and land productivity, we contend that such trends are, in fact, consistent with the often observed inverse farm size‐productivity relationship.     

The impact of conservation tillage on maize yield and input demand: the case of smallholder farmers in north‐west Ethiopia

This study analyses the economics of conservation tillage (CT) with respect to its effect on maize yield and chemical fertiliser, herbicide, and female and male labour demand. We estimate production and input demand functions using seemingly unrelated regressions on plot‐level cross‐sectional farm household data collected in the north‐west of Ethiopia. A two‐step control function is applied to address potential endogeneity bias due to the inclusion of the CT adoption decision as an explanatory variable. Our results show that CT increases maize yield and chemical fertiliser demand. Additionally, the results show that the adoption of CT reduces female and male labour required for crop production. However, this is achieved through the increased use of herbicides, which might have an undesirable health and environmental effects.     

Potential and limitation of an organic fertilizer‐based development strategy: evidence from Tamil Nadu,India, from 1993 to 2003

This article explores the potential and limitations for using farmyard manure (FYM) to improve paddy and upland cereals productivity under various soil conditions in Tamil Nadu, India. Using household‐level fixed effects, estimated yield functions from 1993 to 2003 confirm that FYM application directly increases crop productivity in upland cereals, but not in paddy rice. Complementary effects through an increase in the marginal product of inorganic fertilizer is observed for both paddy and upland cereals, especially where inherent soil fertility is low. Farmers’ FYM use is responsive to changes in the price of FYM, but transport costs limit price transmission across space. Dairy sector development thus improves crop productivity, but only in the small area around the animals which limits the spread of FYM‐based development strategy.     

Men wielding the plough: Changing patterns of production and reproduction among the Balanta of Guinea‐Bissau

This paper is centred on the fast‐track changes occurring among the Balanta of Guinea‐Bissau—at present, the only ethnic group in West Africa still able to produce a mangrove swamp rice surplus with a manual plough—in their traditionally intensive farming system and their social organization, and on the consequences that these changes have had for gender relations, especially with regard to married women's spatial mobility, sexual and economic independence, and access to land, labour, and capital. In doing so, the paper contributes to old debates about the relationship between means of production and gendered power dynamics in contexts where African societies based on domestic modes of production progressively embrace the market economy. The Balanta case offers a new layer of complexity to this debate due to their long‐term resistance to westernization and market integration, their particular conjugal relations, and the paradoxical way in which women have been losing their traditional rights.     

Linking Consumers’ Food Choice Motives to their Preferences for Insect‐based Food Products: An Application of Integrated Choice and Latent Variable Model in an African Context

Consumers’ attitudes, perceptions, personalities and motives play important roles in shaping their food choices. These factors are not fully observed by analysts, so they should be treated as latent variables. A number of economic studies treat such variables as direct measures of consumers’ food choice behaviour, even though this might introduce measurement error and endogeneity bias. We investigate the latent link between consumers’ preferences and food choice motives (FCMs) in an African context. We use an integrated choice and latent variable (ICLV) model specification for data analysis to recognise the latent nature of the FCMs and address the measurement and bias problems. The data originate from an incentivised discrete choice experiment conducted in Kenya to elicit consumers’ preferences for insect‐based foods. Our findings show that consumers’ preferences and choices are influenced by their latent motivational orientation. The results illustrate the benefit of the ICLV approach in accounting for consumers’ latent preference constructs in food choice and valuation research.     

Agricultural productivity growth in Latin America and the Caribbean: an analysis of climatic effects,catch‐up and convergence*

This paper investigates whether climatic adjusted total factor productivity (CATFP) in Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is converging, converging to different steady states or exhibit absolute convergence, that is the process does not require (government) interventions to reach its equilibrium path. We use data from the University of East Anglia’s Climatic Research Unit and from the Food and Agriculture Organization for 28 LAC countries over a 54‐year period (1961–2014) to estimate random parameters stochastic production frontier models to calculate CATFP and then use cross‐sectional regressions and an error correction model to analyse CATFP convergence across countries in the region. The results show that technological progress is the main driver of CATFP growth in the region and there is no absolute convergence, that is CATFP gaps across countries will not decrease over time and least performing countries will not grow faster than better performing ones without targeted policies. However, CATFP across LAC exhibits conditional convergence towards different steady states. Technological progress plays a critical role in raising the steady state level of CATFP with an overall average of 2.22 per cent per annum.     

Returns to public sector plant breeding in the presence of spill‐ins and private goods: the case of bean research in Michigan

This article illustrates a methodology for assessing economic returns to a publicly funded breeding program in the presence of private sector investments, and spill‐ins from other contemporary public institutions and past research efforts. The approach consists of determining yield gains from bean improvement research; applying these yield gain estimates to measure benefits attributable to different institutional players and time periods; and then assessing the benefit‐cost ratios of investments in a bean improvement program since 1980 by Michigan State University (MSU). The results indicate that investments in MSU's bean breeding program have yielded benefits to costs ratio in the range of 0.7 to 2.2, depending on the attribution rule used to estimate the benefits. The estimated benefit/cost ratios reported in this study are lower‐bound estimates, as they do not account for potential benefits from area planted to MSU varieties outside of Michigan (spillover effects), which was 1.5 times greater than the area planted to MSU‐bred varieties within Michigan in the period 1998–2002. The implications of the increasingly privatized bean seed markets for the role of public sector research in bean improvement research are discussed.