Testable implications of subjective expected utility theory

I show that the predictive content of the hypothesis of subjective expected utility maximization critically depends on what the analyst knows about the details of the problem a particular decision maker faces. When the analyst does not know anything about the agent's payoffs or beliefs and can only observe the sequence of actions taken by the decision maker any arbitrary sequence of actions can be implemented as the choice of an agent that solves some intertemporal utility maximization problem under uncertainty.     

Expected utility theory with imprecise probability perception: explaining preference reversals

This article presents a new model for decision-making under risk, which provides an explanation for empirically-observed preference reversals. Central to the theory is the incorporation of probability perception imprecision, which arises because of individuals’ vague understanding of numerical probabilities. We combine this concept with the use of the Alpha EU model and construct a simple model which helps us to understand anomalies, such as preference reversals and valuation gaps, discovered in the experimental economics literature, that standard models cannot explain.     

Optimizing the shares of native tree species in forest plantations with biased financial parameters

Addressing uncertainty is a key requirement to follow the principle of precaution in sustainable ecosystem management. The maximization of worst-case outcomes according to the “maximin” decision rule, based on the two parameters mean and variance of a financial indicator, is a prominent approach to integrate uncertainty in decision-making. In forestry, the problem of selecting the optimum tree species combination for a forest plantation investment can be seen as a problem of optimal portfolio selection, to be solved according to the “maximin” decision rule. Yet, it is well known that portfolios computed from expected means and variances are highly sensitive to changes in the estimated parameters. The financial results may be poor if we rely too much on the historical data. This paper tests an extended worst-case model that considers a lower bound for the expected mean net present value (NPV) of a tree species portfolio and an upper bound for its variance. Biased expected mean NPVs, variances and correlations for the tree species Picea abies [L.] Karst. (Spruce) and Fagus sylvatica L. (Beech) were used to test the variability of the resulting tree species portfolios (27 scenarios). A comprehensive simulated data set, which was adopted from an existing study and defined as the independent reference, served to evaluate the financial performance of the tree species portfolios obtained from optimization with the biased data. Compared with the results of classical worst-case optimization instances, it was feasible to reduce the variability of tree species shares effectively when the optimization was carried out with the extended worst-case approach. Furthermore, the financial performance of this approach was better when tested with the independent data. The worst-case forest NPVs achieved with the extended approach were on average 10% (statistical confidence 0.95) or 147% (statistical confidence 0.99) greater in comparison to the results of the classical approach. The influence of the uncertainty parameter selection was tested and the results were discussed against the controversial viewpoints on the usefulness of the “information-gap decision theory”. Finally, the significance of our results for sustainable ecosystem management is pointed out.     

A Humean theory of choice of which rationality may be one consequence

For the reader who considers economic theory of choice as a special case of a more general theory of action, Hume's discussion of the determinants of action in the Treatise of Human Nature (1739?–?40), in the Enquiry on Human Understanding (1748) and in the Dissertation on Passions (1757) deserves attention. However, according to some modern commentators, Hume does not seem to have given any evidence that would favour what nowadays we would consider as the kind of rationality involved in modern theories of rational choice. On the contrary, this paper arrives at the conclusion that consistency between preferences and choice, like the usual properties of completeness and transitivity, may be considered as outcomes of a mental process, described by means of a decision algorithm that aims to represent Hume's theory of choice.     

The evaluation of public investments under uncertainty

In this paper we revise and extend the theory of the evaluation of public investments under uncertainty. Precisely, we argue that the value of the investments that the public sector would be willing to undertake is never below its market value, and that it can be higher if it provides social insurance.     

社会认同理论视角下的企业创新绩效前因组态研究

创新是企业竞争优势的重要来源,也是企业可持续发展的关键动力。探究企业创新的影响因素及其作用机制对于企业创新发展具有理论价值和现实意义。基于社会认同理论,本研究建立包含团队断裂带、团队异质性、环境不确定性以及企业声誉等要素在内的企业创新影响机制模型。通过对66家电子信息企业样本进行模糊集定性比较分析,本研究探究企业内部结构与外部环境的各个要素对于企业创新的协同效应与联动关系。研究发现: 高企业创新绩效的驱动路径有三条,路径1强调在高环境不确定性、高企业声誉情境下,低高管团队学术背景异质性及低断裂带距离有利于实现高企业创新绩效;路径2强调在高环境不确定性、高企业声誉情境下,高团队学历异质性与低断裂带强度有利于实现高企业创新绩效;路径3强调在高环境不确定性、低企业声誉情境下,高团队断裂带强度与低团队断裂带距离有利于实现高企业创新绩效。研究结果拓展了社会身份理论在企业创新领域的应用,也为企业创新绩效的提升提供了新的思路。