Lessons to Learn? Rückblick auf 10 Jahre „Schiefergasrevolution“ in den USA und Bestandsaufnahme für Europa

A decade ago, the “shale gas revolution” started in the United States. An increased natural gas production turned the U.S. from a highly import depending gas economy to an exporter of gas. This supply increase led to decreasing gas prices, which were followed by decreasing electricity prices. In contrast to Europe, this price development was the driver for an increased industrial production in the U.S.. This development was enabled by technical progress, namely the advanced usage of hydraulic fracturing, the so-called “fracking”. However, this gas production method could cause significant environmental impacts, such as ground water pollution or earthquakes. Most European governments are driven by environmental concerns, so that it is rather unlikely that a similar “shale gas revolution” will occur in Europe.     

Status,Daten und Entwicklungen der globalen Energieversorgung

Global energy consumption is growing. The growth in energy consumption is now covered roughly equally by renewable energy resources and fossil energy resources. Nevertheless, crude oil, natural gas and coal continue to form the backbone of energy supplies. This means that the dependency of energy supplies on fossil energy resources will continue for the foreseeable future. In Germany as well, there is no end in sight of the country decreasing its high dependency on imports of fossil energy resources despite the high growth rate of renewables—and due in part to the decline in domestic production and the withdrawal from nuclear power generation. Crude oil, natural gas, hard coal and lignite with a share of around 80%, still make the largest contribution to the German and global primary energy consumption.All of the renewables together cover around 17% of global energy consumption. Despite the almost inexhaustible potential, making energy generation from renewable sources available at a large scale and commensurate with demand is still in its infancy. By way of contrast, very large reserves of fossil energy resources have already been developed for many years, and are being used in growing quantities. The global comparison of already produced and therefore consumed energy resources and the still existing reserves and resources, reveal that large non-depleted energy potential still exists in all regions around the world. Whilst the potential hardly appears to be touched in Austral-Asia, in the CIS and North America, only a small portion has been produced to date even in Europe. This wealth in resources is primarily attributable to the large deposits of coal found on all continents, which, unlike conventional crude oil and natural gas, are not restricted to a few special regions. Although the Middle East is an extremely important region for crude oil and natural gas, the minor coal reserves in the area mean that its overall potential is comparatively small.     

State of the German Short-Term Power Market

The paper at hand provides a comprehensive overview of the current state of the German short-term power market with focus on trading and efficiency. The pivotal question is whether current market designs are appropriate to maximise social welfare. If this can’t be confirmed, trade-offs between technical restrictions, transparency requirements, the structure of the supply side and regulators focusing mainly on consumer surplus are analysed, which prevent markets from being fully efficient. The emphasis is on Germany due to it’s central location in Europe, it’s sheer size and the rapid increase of renewable generation in recent years. This development forced the German power market into a state of transition. As a result, developments in Germany might serve as a blueprint for other European countries. The introduction of negative day-ahead prices, the implementation of a very liquid intraday trading, a quarter hourly auction and market-based systems for the procurement of Ancillary Services are just some examples of Germany’s pioneering role. On the other hand, negative effects of the rapid changes such as the excessive use of non-market based redispatch measures and system endangering imbalance price regimes shall also be explored. As a matter of course, cross-references to other European countries and harmonisation projects are included as the German market is well interconnected with neighbouring markets.     

Germany’s Energy Supply

Germany has only very limited domestic energy resources. Seventy percent of primary energy needs must be covered by imports. The markets for energy are marked by a wide diversity and a large number of providers. The oil market has been intensely competitive for decades now. Lignite and hard coal are subjected to fierce substitution competition, especially with natural gas. The natural gas and electricity markets were fully liberalized in 1998. Consumers can freely choose from a vast number of suppliers. Since the beginning of this century, however, state interference particularly in the electricity market has increased. The expansion of renewables has been promoted since the year 2000 by feed-in priority and feed-in remunerations regulated by the state. The energy transition initiated in 2011 is characterized by ambitious energy and climate policy targets. Key pillars include the conversion of electricity generation from production on the basis of conventional energy sources to a system based mainly on renewable energies combined with stringent requirements designed to enhance energy efficiency and what are probably the most ambitious climate protection targets worldwide. As regards the expansion of renewables and the phase-out of nuclear energy, Germany is keeping to its target path. By contrast, there are no signs yet that the objectives formulated in terms of the lowering of primary energy consumption and the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions will be achieved.     

Ukrainian gas transit game

This paper investigates the origins and reasons for the termination of the Russian natural gas flow from Russia to Europe through Ukraine in January 2009. It discusses the strategic interaction of the three players (Russia, Ukraine and the European Union) based on the dynamics of losses from confrontation. The objective is to interpret the situation in a stylized way and to derive outcomes using calibrated parameters for costs and benefits of the players. We show that the stakes are high for both Russia and Ukraine in choosing to follow their preferred strategies, as both countries would sustain moderate losses during the initial period of conflict. Meanwhile, Europe’s lack of reserves makes it less prepared for the energy deficit than Ukraine and Russia, causing wider and earlier suffering for European countries dependent on Russian gas. Therefore, the European Union has a strong incentive to intervene in the conflict. Its actions during the January confrontation between Ukraine and Russia included extortion and bribery, all of which affected the outcome of the conflict.     

Erdgas für Europa: Die ewiGAS<Subscript>2008</Subscript> Prognose

Europe’s growing dependency on imports of natural gas poses two major questions: where will future supply come from and how it will get to the major consumption areas in Western Europe. Applying the global gas supply model MAGELAN and the European dispatch model TIGER, the Institute of Energy Economics at the University of Cologne (EWI) compiled its ewiGAS₂₀₀₈ forecast to answer these questions. The main results of the analysis of the future supply situation of Europe show that natural gas imports from Russia and the Middle East will see the largest increases. Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) will gain importance globally, but to a much smaller extent in Europe than in other markets of the world. As the majority of import capacity increases are projected to take place on pipeline routes from North Africa and Iran, LNG imports to Europe will only grow relatively slower than total imports. Sensitivity analyses show that political or technical restrictions on additional exports from Russia and/or the Middle East do not endanger gas supply to Europe in the long-term, although they may significantly raise supply costs in extreme cases.     

Das Umlaufvermögen von Verteilnetzbetreibern

How much current assets are needed to operate a distribution system in Germany? The German “Energiewende” requires tremendous amounts of investment in the distribution network over the next years. The return of invested capital is regulated by § 7 Strom/GasNEV (German network tariff regulations). Current assets are principally included in the regulatory asset base in order to determine the regulatory equity yield rate. The regulatory authorities and distribution system operators have different point of views regarding the proper amount of current assets needed for operating a distribution network. This debate seems quite significant when considering that the average ratio of current assets to total assets is 25%. On the other hand, one could argue that distribution system operators do not need current assets at all. In order to address the issue of the proper amount of current assets for distribution system operators, business specific processes (such as the “EEG process”) should be examined. Furthermore, the provision of current assets causes costs of capital, which reduces the shareholder value and makes the acquisition of capital more challenging. This paper analyses such interrelations between current assets and shareholder value in regulated markets. Moreover, the current regulatory practice of cutting current assets in the regulatory asset base to a standardized amount does not seem appropriate. Rather there is a need for a multi-level and item-by-item based valuation scheme: Is the item required for the business? Is the amount limited to the efficient minimum? Is the amount comparable to other businesses? Concerning this matter, this paper examines proper instruments, such as the cash flow statement. In addition, this paper benchmarks the current (liquidity) ratio of distribution system operators and non-regulated companies. Based on this benchmark, the current assets of distribution system operators appear comparatively efficient. The results point out a need of action regarding current regulatory practice.     

Techno-ökonomische Bewertung von Energie-Autarkie für die Energieversorgung von Einfamilienhäusern

Many consumers currently follow the idea of energy self-sufficiency and try to contribute to meet their energy needs in order to become independent and self-sufficient from the central power supply system. In order to achieve load-oriented energy self-sufficiency the provision of energy must cover the full energy demand at any time. Against this background, in this paper the costs and potentials of a load-oriented energy self-sufficiency of single-family homes are analysed. Thereby it is differentiated between electricity-, heat- and energy self-sufficiency. The modelling is carried out with the simulation environment ?Polysun Designer“ which allows a high temporal dynamic simulation of the annual energy demand and supply.The results show that, within the investigated supply variations, the highest levels of energy self-sufficiency can be achieved by an energy supply system completely based on electricity using a combination of PV; heat pump and battery storage. Depending on the building standard, a maximum of 45 (existing buildings) and 71?% (new buildings) of the building’s energy demand can be covered with renewable energy. The economic evaluation however has shown that under present conditions, none of the investigated supply variants can compete with conventional energy supply (public grid connection + gas condensing boiler).     

Dis-harmony in European Natural Gas Market(s)—Discussion of Standards and Definitions

The European Union attempts to harmonise the European natural gas market(s). In general, this is supported on national levels. Nevertheless, such harmonisation is not yet fully accomplished: neither for the rules nor for the quality specifications nor for the physical quantities and their units. Even if the current economic impact of such dis-harmony is negligible, i.e. that market participants for the time being do not have to bear additional costs caused by the lack of harmonisation, participants in the commodity market are exposed to contractual risks. Potentially, this might lead to reduced competition and reduced liquidity of each single and the European internal market for natural gas. However, as the costs for a potential harmonisation of European gas markets are estimated to be significant, the dilemma is evident and the ‘political’ solution of the ‘harmonisation problem’ will necessarily deviate from the traders’ one.     

页岩气开发将改变全球天然气市场格局——美国能源信息署（EIA）公布全球页岩气资源初评结果

美国能源信息署（EIA）对全球14个地理区域的页岩气资源的初步评估结果显示,全球页岩气技术可采资源量达到187万亿立方米。其中,中国的页岩气技术可采资源量为36万亿立方米,排名世界第一（约占20%）,其后依次是美国（约占13%）、阿根廷、墨西哥和南非。若将此评估结果计算在内,全球天然气资源量可提高40%以上,达到640万亿立方米。由于环境保护和经济发展推动天然气需求快速增长,低气价助推天然气需求增长,技术发展提高页岩气生产的经济性,加之政府的激励政策和措施,未来全球页岩气市场发展前景广阔。但是,未来10年全球页岩气市场开发也面临诸多限制因素：低气价限制基础设施建设和投资,页岩气开发成本依然过高,中游基础设施缺乏,HSE和潜在的法律限制,现有页岩气技术在其他国家是否可行仍然存在疑问。鉴于中国能源需求快速增长,建议国家从能源安全的战略高度出发,综合协调各方力量,对国内页岩气资源展开全面深入的评估。     

Berechnung des Xgen unter Verwendung von Regressionsmethoden

The “CPI-X” regulation allows a dynamic adjustment of the revenue cap. The general X factors is a correction term for the consumer price index (CPI), since the CPI does not represent the development of the efficient costs in the network sector. This article shows how the general X factor can be calculated using regression analysis and discusses its applicability in the German regulation context. The results show that the general X factor can be calculated using suitable panel methods, but also shows the practical limits of this approach: panel models often do not converge in short time series. In addition, regression analysis can only provide a prognosis for the future general X factor if stable economic and regulation conditions can be assumed. This is currently not the case in the German regulatory context.     

中国天然气资源潜力分析

中国天然气资源丰富,基本形成四川、鄂尔多斯、塔里木等八大天然气勘探开发区格局。常规天然气勘探开发已进入快速发展阶段,煤层气处于商业开采初期,页岩气仍处于前期评价阶段。今后中国常规天然气勘探重点集中在前陆盆地、海相碳酸盐岩、大面积地层岩性带、火山岩、生物成因气和陆架海域;煤层气勘探重点主要在沁水、鄂尔多斯、准噶尔和宁武盆地,南方海相古生界页岩是页岩气最为有利的勘探领域。结合全国天然气资源勘探领域、勘探潜力和近年来天然气储量增长趋势,多方法预测2010-2030年中国天然气年均探明地质储量约5000亿立方米,常规气储量增长高峰期将持续到2025年左右。未来20年中国天然气产量将处于快速增长期,预计2010-2015年年均增长100亿立方米以上,2020年天然气产量超过2200亿立方米,油气产量当量基本相当;2030年天然气产量有望超过3000亿立方米。     

欧美天然气管理体制与运营模式及其对我国的启示

欧洲各国天然气政策基本按欧盟指引来制定,重点之一是推进天然气市场化进程,推动管网独立与第三方准入机制的建立。欧洲天然气市场的上游价格完全放开,但对管道运输、储气和配气等环节,各国都进行了严格的价格和利润率监管。美国对天然气价格的管制经历了从不管制到控制井口价格再到完全放开三个发展阶段,灵活的天然气价格机制是保障天然气稳定供应的重要因素。目前中国仍处于天然气发展的初步阶段,大型一体化公司解体拆分模式不可照搬硬套,管网独立未到时机,国家能源供应安全保障应该放在发展的首要位置;欧美国家天然气产业组织结构和政府监管模式与各国历史、政治传统紧密相关,没有固定模式,中国应根据自身的资源特点、市场发展、国家政治体制以及经济文化传统等制定适合自身的天然气行业管理体制;随着中国天然气消费的快速增长和消费者价格承受能力的逐步增强,应适时建立天然气价格的市场形成机制。     

Eine soziologische Systemanalyse und sozio-ökonomisches Review der Soziotechnik Energiewende

The transition of the energy supply system in Germany from fossil-nuclear energy resources to renewable energies is a policy issue and defines a society technics. Society technics takes responsibility for an essential societal need and should be based on an agreement between all actors in all involved systems. According to a society-technics there are benefits for encouraging research, good governance for political support, public understanding of science (PUSH), and academic consultation for politics.Positive implementation will results in optimal coordination as all systems will function and all actors will work for synergy-effects. But a sociological system analyses works out many “dyssynergies”, handling the transition only as technological challenges and failing in underlying this transformation as a socio-technical system. Using renewable energies will not only change the technological system architecture but also modifying social systems and individual attitudes.     

Can Lignite Take a Back Seat?

Transmission grid extension is a central aspect of the future energy system transition in Germany. This stems from the diverging occurrence of renewable energy feed-in and consumption as well as the targeted nuclear and currently discussed carbon phase-outs. After realizing the retirement of the domestic nuclear energy fleet by 2022, a next policy objective could be the phase-out of domestic lignite generation. The German electricity grid was not designed to accommodate these emerging challenges. Hence, the following paper addresses the impact of decommissioning lignite power plants on the most cost-effective grid extensions by 2030. To determine the optimal transmission grid design, efficient methods for techno-economic analysis are required. The challenge of conducting an analysis of grid extensions involves lumpy investment decisions and the non-linear character of several restrictions in a real-data environment. The following paper introduces the application of the Benders Decomposition, dividing the problem into an extension and a dispatch problem to reduce the degree of computational complexity. The results show that lignite phase-out can significantly increase the number of grid extensions in Germany. All scenarios simulating a lignite phase-out by 2030 lead to higher overall system costs but lower CO\({}_{2}\) emissions.     

Wann kommt die Kostenwende bei der EEG-Umlage?

The apportionment of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG-Umlage) constitutes a significant portion of the electricity price for domestic and commercial customers. First, the authors outline the implemented apportionment mechanism, the historical development as well as a couple of the lack of misjudgments. Subsequently, they investigate the question whether and when a reduction of the EEG apportionment can be expected. A model based on the current remuneration rules of the EEG, which is validated based on forecasts conducted by the transmission system operators, is used for the calculation of the EEG apportionment. The calculations show that an increase of the EEG levy to over 8?ct/kWh can be expected in the reference case, followed by a reduction from 2025 onwards. In the context of sensitivity calculations, various uncertainty factors are identified, such as the development of the wholesale price or the magnitude of the remuneration. Those factors significantly influence the EEG levy and thus underline the challenges in the development of a reliable forecast.     

Knowledge,Use and Effectiveness of Social Acceptance Measures for Wind Projects

Wind energy is one of the key technologies to become independent of fossil fuels. Implementation of wind energy on a local level, however, has sometimes proved to be challenging and dealing with local acceptance of onshore wind turbines has become troublesome for some projects. Communication and public involvement are seen as strategies to prevent or respond to local opposition. This paper analyses the views of a variety of experts in wind energy on this matter. It focuses on eliciting their experiences with public participation measures. Furthermore, the perceived effectiveness of the measures for the social acceptance of wind energy projects is analysed. To do so, this paper draws on an expert survey among 207 individuals across Europe linked to wind energy projects. The analysis shows that negative reactions to wind farms are reported more frequently than positive reactions. In nearly 40% of cases, projects experience negative consequences on project development due to a lack of social acceptance, ranging from delays to changes in project plans and even termination. The vast majority of wind project developers respond to this by carrying out public participation activity at least sometimes. However, a much lower share does this systematically and the level of activity is low in early project phases. With regard to the relationship between project activities and project success, there is some support for the assumption that early and systematic involvement of the public and stakeholders is likely to reduce negative reactions.     

美国低气价时代页岩气开发趋势分析

“页岩气革命”使美国成为全球天然气价格洼地,由此引发了业界对美国页岩气开发是否可持续的思考.本文通过对美国国内页岩气生产商的成本和利润、美国石化产业发展、美国出口天然气对国内和国际的影响、美国加强对国内页岩气开发的环境监管和天然气利用技术的分析,从天然气利用技术(例如GTL)和政策(例如出口许可)两个维度对天然气气价和页岩气开发的发展趋势进行定性的矩阵式情景分析,为我国政府和企业推动、参与页岩气开发提供决策参考.     

Zur Methodik von Effizienzbewertungen im energiewirtschaftlichen Kontext

In discussions concerning sustainability, climate change and the efficient use of resources, the terms energy efficiency, rational use of energy and resource efficiency are widely used. Each of those three terms corresponds to an assessment method. However, the terms and assessment methods are often used differently without an explicit definition of the actual approach. Therefore the major contribution of this article is the development of a framework of methodological characteristics to classify the three assessment methods.The three methodological characteristics of assessment methods are the definition of the object of investigation, the type of statement and the assessment setting. The assessment setting is specified by three criteria: balance boundary, aggregation level and measuring units.All three assessment methods rely on the concept of efficiency, defined as a utility-effort-ratio. The object of investigation influences the utility, which is formalized by a measuring unit. The balance boundary for the utility determines to what extent the utility is considered. The balance boundary for the effort describes which resources are captured for which upstream and downstream processes. The aggregation level describes the extent to which different resources are aggregated as one measuring unit. Monetary, physical or self-designed units are commonly used as measuring units.The plurality of possible manifestations of the balance boundary, the aggregation level and the measuring unit does not allow for a universally valid, precise definition of the three investigated assessment methods. Therefore the recommendations are: Firstly, when using an assessment method, the criteria of the framework should be used to document the approach. Secondly, the identification of the adequate assessment method should be based on a thorough discussion of goals and hierarchy of goals in politics.     

World Energy Council’s Global Energy Scenarios to 2060

Since 1970, global energy consumption has more than doubled. Conventional resources, in particular oil, gas and coal, had a dominant share in supply and covered most of the growth in demand in the past. Even in 2015, these fossil fuels still accounted for more than 80% of global primary energy consumption. The contribution of renewable energies to the total electricity generation was 23% in 2015, the same share as in 1970. Developments in the coming decades will differ substantially, however. Total energy consumption will rise at a much more moderate pace than in the past, e.?g. by up to one third by 2060. Electricity consumption will double during this period. But even this is a considerable slowdown in growth compared with the five-fold increase seen between 1970 and 2015. And, unlike in the past, the emerging rise in consumption will essentially be covered by renewable energy sources. This is true especially for the electricity sector. This comparison with developments in the past shows the extent of the global energy transformation that may be expected in future. These developments are reflected in three global scenarios, which were published by the World Energy Council in October 2016. The results of this flagship study World Energy Scenarios to 2060 are mirrored with the main findings of the IEA’s World Energy Outlook and the U.S. EIA’s International Energy Outlook. The most important challenge indicated by the results of the mentioned studies is: the transformation, which is expected in the covered scenarios is not sufficient, in order to achieve the target of limiting the global temperature increase to less than 2 degrees Celsius compared to pre-industrial levels that was agreed by the international community of states in Paris at the end of 2015. It will be highlighted, which strategies could meet the requirement cost-efficiently—a prerequisite for its success.