Zur Analyse der Auswirkungen der Biomethaneinspeisung auf die Entwicklung der deutschen Erdgasversorgung

Natural gas offers several advantages compared to other fossil fuels, especially regarding its specific CO₂ emissions and its flexibility in usage. Thus, it is expected that the consumption of natural gas will further increase in the future. Nevertheless, this increase is accompanied by a growing dependence on imports. Biomethane, i.e. conditioned biogenous gas, is an interesting possibility for the substitution of natural gas. As it is a renewable and indigenous energy source, it contributes to the reduction of both: CO₂ emissions and gas imports. Similar to the renewable electricity generation, the German government sets targets for the biomethane feed-in and has introduced promotion mechanisms to achieve these goals. Within this paper the possible role of biomethane in the German natural gas supply has been evaluated by applying the optimising energy flow model PERSEUS-EEM. Results show that the CO₂ emissions trading system by itself is not sufficient for the competitiveness of biomethane. Model results demonstrate that a significant increase of the German natural gas demand can be expected especially due to the stringent CO₂ reduction targets. Even when the political CO₂-reduction targets are reached, biomethane will not play a major role in the natural gas supply of Germany.     

Quantifizierung und Systematisierung der technischen und verhaltensbedingten Stromeinsparpotenziale der deutschen Privathaushalte

Electricity consumption in German households accounts for more than 10 % of energy-related CO₂ emissions. In spite of substantial improvements in, for example, the efficiency of household appliances, there is still a considerable electricity savings potential to be tapped in this sector. The possible contribution that the German residential sector can make to climate protection is correspondingly large. This paper aims to structure and quantify electricity savings potentials which could be exploited in German households either through investment measures or changed user behaviour. The total theoretical potential which can be tapped through the purchase of efficient household appliances and the replacement of electrical heaters and hot water generators (i.e. by encouraging investment) amounts to approx. 90 TWh/a. This corresponds to more than 60 % of the current electricity demand of all German households. By means of changed user behaviour, approx. 30 TWh of electricity could be saved according to our calculations. These results presented in this article were reached within the scope of the TRANSPOSE interdisciplinary research project (http://www.uni-muenster.de/Transpose/, the complete analysis can be downloaded at http://www.uni-muenster.de/imperia/md/content/transpose/publikationen/buerger_working_paper_3.pdf). This project is funded within the framework of the ‘Social-ecological Research’ programme of the German Federal Ministry for Education and Research.     

Wettbewerbsfähigkeit der Photovoltaik im deutschen Energiemix – Neudefinition des Ansatzes der Netzparität

Photovoltaics are one of the fastest growing energy sources in the world. Despite high costs and a limited energy yield, attractive support schemes particularly the German renewable energy law have paved the way for the strong market growth of this technology within the last decade. Here the question arises as to when photovoltaics will reach a competitive level in Germany without the support of subsidies. The prominent grid parity approach is simple and considered critical in this discussion. It is critical because of the different references regarding the costs of electricity generated by a newly installed PV system and the electricity price of private households, which consists of electricity generation, distribution, sales as well as taxes and duties on the one hand. On the other hand, there are different time references in the calculation of electricity generation costs and electricity prices of private households. Transferring the approach of Levelized Costs of Electricity (LCOE) to all power generation plants within the energy mix means a redefinition of the grid parity of photovoltaics will be carried out. Here the electricity generation costs of photovoltaics as well as the energy mix will be calculated in the same way. The LCOE calculation refers to the whole life cycle of every power generation plant. That is why a balance between the high investment costs of photovoltaics and the increasing operation costs of fossil fuelled power plants is made. It can be shown that the reaching of competitiveness of photovoltaics in Germany depends on structural changes in electricity generation and it is to be realized within the anticipated time frame until the year 2020.     

Grosse Stadtwerke – theoretische und empirische Exploration eines besonderen Akteurs in der Energiewende Deutschlands und der Schweiz

Urban utility companies are key players in the Swiss and German energy sector. Due to the federalist and subsidiary governance structure of the two countries’ energy sector, they perform highly system relevant tasks, as e.?g. managing the distribution grids or ensuring the public services for “their city”. In the public and scientific discourse on the role of different actor groups in the energy transition, however, not much attention is paid to urban utility companies. This contribution aims at a theoretical and empirical exploration of these particular actors by analysing their characteristics, specific challenges and strategic answers in the context of the energy transition. For this purpose, the article derives analytical dimensions for the analysis of urban utility companies from scholarly literature on transition studies, network industries and public corporate governance and empirically analyses characteristics and the current situation of urban utility companies in Germany and Switzerland. Methodologically, this article is based on an explorative, qualitative study, which synthesises results from a literature analysis, a document analysis, 38 expert interviews in both countries (in 2017) and two expert workshops conducted in Switzerland (in 2018). The study shows, how the characteristics of urban utility companies can be explained based on public corporate governance and network industries literature. This also allows to identify and understand their particular challenges, as e.?g. the fields of tension among public and private interest in the firms and the multi-dimensional relationship of owner or the particularities of network industries. Finally, this article points out, that the role of urban utility companies in the Swiss and German energy transition is neither just “inhibitor” nor pure “innovator”, but can be labelled as “intelligent follower” and “engineer of the energy transition”.     

Versorgungsqualit?t in der leitungsgebundenen Gasversorgung

The incentive regulation ordinance (Anreizregulierungsverordnung (ARegV)) stipulates the implementation of a quality regulation scheme for the second regulatory period gas (2013?C2018). This raises the issue how to specify, define and stimulate quality specifically for gas transportation and distribution. According to §§18?C20 ARegV, the dimensions ??reliability?? and ??network capacity?? need to be incorporated. Due to the lack of tangibility of quality in the gas sector, the issue of quality turns out to be much more complex than in the electricity sector where quality or??more specifically??reliability is mainly associated with the premise ??keeping the lights on??. In order to establish a first idea of the current situation in the area of quality in grid-bound gas supply, WIK conducted expert interviews with different stakeholders from industry and science. Following this first step, a workshop took place to present the results from the survey and to further discuss the main issues. Overall, it turned out from the discussion that the definition and differentiation of the different quality dimensions is very complex due to the heterogeneous views of the stakeholders on priorities and incentives. Two different attitudes towards the regulation of the quality dimension reliability emerged in the interviews. One part of the group advocated the implementation of a corresponding q-element in the regulatory formula, whereas the other part preferred a quality monitoring without regulatory effects. Overall, the interviews and the workshop served its purpose in collecting the different opinions of the stakeholders. Based on these results, the discussion can be deepened. To approach the topic, it will be shown how the regulators in the Netherlands and Hungary converted the rarely practiced quality regulation into practice.     

Ökonomische Analyse der Erstnutzer von Elektrofahrzeugen

Plug-in hybrids and purely electric vehicles are currently being intensively discussed. The economic efficiency of these vehicles is essential for their future market success. As economic analyses of the specific driving profiles of customer groups in Germany have shown, economic efficiency depends on factors such as vehicle mileage, the share of urban driving and the share of electrical driving. For the first users of electric mobility, small, purely electrically-operated town cars will be offered in 2015. About 4 % of German car drivers were found to be suitable for such a car. Later on, plug-in hybrids will also become attractive for certain consumer groups, in particular for full-time workers from communities with fewer than 100,000 residents. Less suited are car drivers in large cities as they do not usually drive sufficient distances for an electric car to pay off, often do not have access to their own private parking and the majority only own one vehicle. Housewives/househusbands and pensioners comprise other groups not considered to be suitable as the first users of electric vehicles from a purely economic perspective.     

Wann kommt die Kostenwende bei der EEG-Umlage?

The apportionment of the German Renewable Energy Sources Act (EEG-Umlage) constitutes a significant portion of the electricity price for domestic and commercial customers. First, the authors outline the implemented apportionment mechanism, the historical development as well as a couple of the lack of misjudgments. Subsequently, they investigate the question whether and when a reduction of the EEG apportionment can be expected. A model based on the current remuneration rules of the EEG, which is validated based on forecasts conducted by the transmission system operators, is used for the calculation of the EEG apportionment. The calculations show that an increase of the EEG levy to over 8?ct/kWh can be expected in the reference case, followed by a reduction from 2025 onwards. In the context of sensitivity calculations, various uncertainty factors are identified, such as the development of the wholesale price or the magnitude of the remuneration. Those factors significantly influence the EEG levy and thus underline the challenges in the development of a reliable forecast.     

Mögliche Entwicklung der Umlage zur Förderung der Stromerzeugung aus erneuerbaren Energien durch das Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz bis 2018

As a result of the strong growth of renewable energies in the German electricity sector within the last few years, the allocation of renewable costs to the consumer (RES-E apportionment) has been set to 5.277 ct/kWh for 2013 (ÜNB, Pressemitteilung der Übertragungsnetzbetreiber zur veröffentlichten EEG-Umlage 2013, 2012a). This article presents potential developments in the costs of promoting renewable energy and the RES-E apportionment in Germany using three different scenarios. Each of the scenarios considers different trends with respect to further deployment of renewable energies, wholesale prices and electricity demand. Due to the underlying uncertainties surrounding these major parameters, the scenarios show a wide range for the RES-E apportionment. A reduction of the RES-E apportionment can be reached if we consider an increase in wholesale prices. However, the scenarios indicate a further increase in the RES-E apportionment, where the amount heavily depends on the further deployment of renewable energies and the development of wholesale prices. Despite the reduction of feed-in tariffs, a main contributor to an increase in the RES-E apportionment is still the ongoing deployment of photovoltaics (PV). In order to prevent a further cost increase without inhibiting renewable targets, it may be worth focusing on comparably cheaper technologies in the further deployment of renewable energies.     

Die Berücksichtigung von Spitzenkappung in der Anreizregulierung

The model of temporary disconnection of renewable energy in case of high energy injection and low demand is thought to be an effective method for reducing investments in electricity networks. However, plant owners need to be reimbursed for foregone sales. According to the currently discussed draft of the Amendment of the German Incentive Regulation Ordinance, these costs can be rolled over to the consumer on a yearly basis, but are part of the cost benchmark with their base year values. This paper shows that this model sets incentives for optimal investments in electricity networks, but violates the participation constraint: Net operators will be exposed to a severe risk of worsening their position in the cost benchmark. In expectation, they will generate losses and investors have no incentive to invest in electricity networks. This problem can be solved by allowing net operators to roll over costs to customers, while considering average reimbursement fees in the cost benchmark.     

Auswirkungen der europäischen Energiepolitik auf den deutschen Atomausstieg

After the election of the new German government on September 27th, 2009, the nuclear power phase-out decision appears back on top of the political agenda. Hence, an up to date survey of all relevant arguments seems absolutely necessary. In that matter, the scope should not remain national but should also take the European dimension into account.On the European level, a position in favour of nuclear power becomes apparent. Recent political decisions among the 27 member states show a renaissance of atomic energy. EU-Parliament, EU-Commission and EU-Council have all voted for the extensive, long term use of nuclear power in Europe. With its phase-out decision still valid, Germany is part of a minority in Europe.Germany is part of a European market for electricity whose national barriers will blur more and more in the future to form a fully integrated pan-European market in the end. Since nuclear power will provide a major share of the European electricity generation mix, Germany will always be supplied with atomic energy in the long term. This is imperative, regardless of nuclear power plants operating within the borders of Germany or not. Shutting down these facilities in Germany will hence not make the risks associated with atomic energy disappear. It will only add energy-technical challenges to assure long-term supply security. Thus, the new German government should withdraw the phase-out decision.     

Verteilungsaspekte einer Harmonisierung der europäischen Klimaschutzmaßnahmen

The ongoing harmonisation of the European energy sector has led to gains from growth and increasing efficiencies by creating a common European internal market. However, there are new tendencies running against harmonisation in recent years, currently for example in the area of climate protection and the associated expansion of renewable energies. In addition to the role of national targets for climate protection in combination with a European emissions trading system, carrying out the related measures leads to distributional effects, both between countries and between stakeholders (e. g., producers and consumers) in these countries. We first analyse the impact of a non-harmonised national promotion schemes for renewable energies on electricity and CO₂ prices in different countries. Then we illustrate the impact of harmonisation measures on producers and consumers in the participating countries. The analysis shows that these measures are indeed economically beneficial, but that—depending on the actual configuration—they can also lead to disadvantages for individual actors. Analysing and discussing these effects leads to a better assessment of the impact of certain measures and enables a better classification of individual market participants’ responses and opinions.     

Das Glühbirnendekret der EU – ein unnötiges Verbot

Since September 2009, the European market for household lamps is subject to EU regulation 244/2009, which enforces the gradual phase-out of incandescent light bulbs. As of September 2012, only energy-efficient lighting sources such as halogen lamps, light-emitting diodes (LED), or compact fluorescent lamps—often referred to as energy-saving lamps—will be allowed for sale. The EU’s justification for the phase-out of conventional light bulbs maintains that a reduction in the electricity consumed will not only lead to lower energy costs for private households and industrial consumers, but at the same time lead to a decrease in greenhouse gas emissions. This article discusses possible reasons for the slow market diffusion of energy-saving lamps and shows that the investment in energy-efficient lamps does not necessarily lead to significant cost reductions in every case. Drawing on some illustrative examples, we demonstrate that the use of cheaper incandescent bulbs instead of energy-saving lamps can be economically rational in cases of rather low usage times, in which the higher initial purchasing price might only pay off after very long time spans. Furthermore, due to the coexistence with the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS), this regulation will not lead to any additional reduction of carbon emissions exceeding the amount caused by the ETS. We thus conclude that the general ban of incandescent light bulbs is inappropriate and should be abolished by the Commission.     

Dynamische Berechnung der Stromgestehungskosten von Energiespeichern für die Energiesystemmodellierung und -einsatzplanung

Due to the transition in energy supply from fossil to renewable energy sources, energy storage systems are getting more and more important for the security of power supply. Therefore also the modeling of those storage systems in energy system modeling needs to be further discussed. This paper focuses on the levelized costs of energy storage. In the beginning, the existing approaches of calculating those costs are analyzed in a literature review. It will be shown that all of the approaches calculate the levelized costs on the basis of the energy storages’ lifetime. For the usage in energy system modeling it is mandatory that the calculation can be done for variable and shorter time periods. Therefore this work’s approach calculates the costs based on the time of operation in any period chosen. Additionally, the model can be used for any type of storage system. After introducing the mathematical model, the levelized costs of energy storage will be calculated to illustrate the models properties and then verified with reference load profiles for five different energy storage types. Following this, particular input parameters are varied and sensitivities are pointed out. Most of the programs for power plant dispatch calculations use linear or mixed integer linear programing algorithms. As the calculation of levelized costs of electricity is non-linear, most programs use fixed values during the whole time of simulation. In this article the integration of the presented approach into a linear optimization program via recursive and shifted calculation is elaborated. Results are presented and discussed.     

Klimawandel: Wahrnehmung und Einschätzungen der deutschen Haushalte im Herbst 2012

This article presents results that are obtained from a survey among private households in Germany, which took place in the fall of 2012. A key result is that in comparison with a range of other global challenges, respondents are less concerned with fighting climate change, a remarkable outcome given that the share of climate change skeptics in the survey is likely to be lower than in the population owing to selfselection problems. This article addresses such self-selection problems, as well as other shortcomings of surveys, and provides for a discussion on how to cope with them.     

Vergleichende Analyse der technisch-wirtschaftlichen Bedingungen von PV-Anlagen Mit Süd- und Ost-West-Ausrichtung

PV power plants with east-west-orientation have a lower energy production per installed kW_p due to their orientation than those facing to south. Thus they need a reduction of costs to compensate the lack of energy production and to have the same cost effectiveness as PV plants with south-orientation. This paper tries to show, how and if PV plants with east-west-orientation can be more profitable than PV plants with south-orientation. Therefore, the energy production was simulated for PV plants with an orientation to east-west and to south with different inclinations in a place with high irradiation (Freiburg) and a place with low irradiation (Hamburg). A calculation of profitability was made for each PV plant including energy production as well as ascertained costs. This are the main outcomes:

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is not better than the profitability of PV plants with south-orientation.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is better than the one of PV plants with south-orientation when the costs of mounting systems are much lower for east-west mounting-systems than for mounting-systems with south-orientation and the costs of grid-connection and rent are high too.

The profitability of PV plants with east-west-orientation is higher in regions with low irradiation.

     

Die Kosten des Klimaschutzes am Beispiel der Strompreise für private Haushalte

Power prices in Germany have been surging since the outset of the new millennium. Among the major reasons for this tendency are newly raised taxes and levies on electricity prices, whose introduction is primarily motivated by climate concerns. Without these taxes and levies, net electricity prices would have remained constant for private households. This article discusses these taxes and levies that have been responsible for the cost increases in private households’ electricity consumption. Most influential have been the feed-in tariffs for renewable energies, above all photovoltaics. According to our calculations, the levy for renewables will further increase in the up-coming years, thereby pushing consumers’ electricity cost once again. Our calculations also show that within the next couple of years, there will be a fierce competition among renewable energy technologies, most notably between photovoltaics and wind power. Politics would be well-advised, therefore, to limit the annual capacity of newly installed solar modules in order to avoid both the explosion of consumers’ electricity bills and strong competition among renewables.     

Prognose der Day-Ahead Wind- und Photovoltaikstromerzeugung – Einflussgrößen und Zuverlässigkeit

In the future, the percentage of renewable energies in the electricity generation is expected to increase continuously. Especially weather-dependent wind and solar power plays a substantial role. These energy sources are partly characterized by a fluctuating and imprecisely predictable power generation. To cover the residual load and to balance the forecast errors a rising number of flexible producers and consumers will be needed in the future. This is necessary to ensure the high security of supply of the German electricity grid.Against this background, the objective of the following investigation is to analyse the day-ahead forecasting quality of the feed-in from wind and photovoltaic systems in the control areas of Germany’s transmission system operators and in the entire area of Germany for the years 2010 to 15. The aim of this analysis is to identify the crucial parameters that influence the forecast error. Subsequently, the share of the wind and photovoltaic power forecast which can be considered as reliably predictable for the following day is estimated. In addition, the increase in this reliable prediction through a higher level of detail in the assessment of the forecast error is quantified. Based on these results, the need of flexibilities through the weather-dependent electricity supply from wind and photovoltaic systems can be estimated, and the impact on the electricity system can be evaluated.     

Optimierte Integration der Elektromobilität in das Stromversorgungssystem bei hohen Anteilen erneuerbarer Energien

Electric mobility will play a key role for the transformation of the energy supply in Germany [the “Energiewende”]. A successful market development of plug-in hybrids and battery electric vehicles and a full fleet penetration in the long-term are the most efficient and effective measure for integrating large amounts of renewable energy into the transport sector and for reaching the efficiency targets. These new electricity consumers in the supply system will cause additional electricity loads strongly dependent on the mobility needs of the vehicle users. A controlled battery charging is able to avoid new peak demands and to increase the efficiency of the power generation system by using excess power. By scenario analysis, the German Aerospace Center (DLR) in cooperation with the Fraunhofer Institute for Solar Energy Systems (ISE) and the Institute for High Voltage Technology of the RWTH Aachen investigated a possible successful development path of electric mobility in Germany and its integration into and interaction with the future power supply system. From both perspectives—the one of the total supply system as well as the other of local distribution grids—the results show promising potentials but also limits.     

Klimaschutzpolitik in Deutschland – eine ökonomische Konsistenzanalyse der Rahmenbedingungen für den Strommarkt

In order to reduce greenhouse gas emissions stemming from the electricity sector, Germany has implemented various instruments during the last ten years. The joint effect of both these instruments and the emissions trading system of the European Union is significant over-regulation. The German support systems for renewable energy and combined heat and power as well as the electricity tax don’t have any positive effect on climate protection any more. In the case of combined heat and power the support system may even result in increases of CO₂-emissions. For efficiency reasons climate protection policy in the power sector should be limited to emissions trading.