Stock market dynamics with rational liquidity traders

In the Kyle (1985) finite horizon model of stock market dynamics with a trader who holds long-lived information, informed trading intensities rise with time, and the slopes of the equilibrium price schedules fall. This paper shows that this result depends crucially on the irrational liquidity trader assumption. We replace the irrational noise traders with a sequence of rational, risk averse, liquidity traders who receive endowment shocks to their holdings of the risky asset. We demonstrate that unless liquidity traders are sufficiently risk averse, the slope of equilibrium price schedule rises over time, while informed trading intensities fall. In particular, Kyle's result holds only when liquidity traders are so risk averse that they ‘over-rebalance’ their portfolio's holdings of the risky asset, so that their final holdings of the risky asset have the opposite sign of their initial position.     

Stock market liberalization and operating performance at the firm level

I use firm-specific measures of openness to foreign investors to study the impact of stock market liberalization on firm-level operating performance. In a sample of over 1,100 firms from 28 countries, firms with stocks that are open to foreign investors experience higher growth, greater investment, greater profitability, greater efficiency, and lower leverage. Strategies to address potential endogeneity suggest that the observed relation reflects, at least in part, a causal effect of openness on operating performance.     

Modelling illiquidity spillovers with Hawkes processes: an application to the sovereign bond market

Modelling the dynamics of (il)liquidity across assets is an important yet complicated task, especially when considering significant deteriorations of liquidity conditions. Here, we propose a peak-over-threshold method to identify abrupt liquidity drops from limit order book data and we model the time-series of these illiquidity events across multiple assets as a multivariate Hawkes process. This allows us to quantify both the self-excitation of extreme changes of liquidity in the same asset (illiquidity spirals) and the cross-excitation across different assets (illiquidity spillovers). Applying the method to the MTS sovereign bond market, we find significant evidence for both illiquidity spillovers and spirals. The proportion of shocks explained by illiquidity spillovers roughly doubles from 2011 to 2015, suggesting an increased synchronization of extreme illiquidity across assets.     

Stock and bond returns with Moody Investors

We present a tractable, linear model for the simultaneous pricing of stock and bond returns that incorporates stochastic risk aversion. In this model, analytic solutions for endogenous stock and bond prices and returns are readily calculated. After estimating the parameters of the model by the general method of moments, we investigate a series of classic puzzles of the empirical asset pricing literature. In particular, our model is shown to jointly accommodate the mean and volatility of equity and long term bond risk premia as well as salient features of the nominal short rate, the dividend yield, and the term spread. Also, the model matches the evidence for predictability of excess stock and bond returns. However, the stock–bond return correlation implied by the model is somewhat higher than that in the data.     

Stock market dynamics in a regime-switching asymmetric power GARCH model

This paper analyzes the dynamics of Asian stock index returns through a Regime-Switching Asymmetric Power GARCH model (RS-APGARCH). The model confirms some stylized facts already discussed in former studies but also highlights interesting new characteristics of stock market returns and volatilities. Mainly, it improves the traditional regime-switching GARCH models by including an asymmetric response to news and, above all, by allowing the power transformations of the heteroskedasticity equations to be estimated directly from the data. Several mixture models are compared where a first-order Markov process governs the switching between regimes.     

Emerging market bond returns—An investor perspective

The novel features of this study consist in applying a conventional multifactor global market model to emerging market sovereign bond index rates of return that are denominated in US dollars and subsequently relating the unexplained residuals from the market model's estimates of each country's total bond index return to country-specific factors. They include political and financial risks as well as other presumed determinants of bond index rates of return. The results of our study confirm that sovereign countries’ bond index rates of return that include interest payments and capital gains/losses may be explained in terms of conventional bond pricing models by combining global market factors with local risk and other country-specific influences.     

评价股市:视野和方向

对中国股市如何评价?可以说是仁者见仁,智者见智.乐观者有之,悲观者有之.前不久在2006年中国企业高峰会论坛的"资本市场分论坛",来自海内外的专家就中国资本市场的发展发表了各自的看法,其中中国证监会副主席屠光绍和著名学者许小年的发言最为人关注     

Stock market seasonality: International Evidence

This study examines empirically stock market seasonality in major industrialized countries. Evidence is provided that there are strong seasonalities in the stock market return distributions in most of the capital markets around the world. The seasonality, when it exists, appears to be caused by the disproportionately large January returns in most countries and April returns in the U.K. With the exception of australia, these months also coincide with the turn of the tax year.     

Global market integration: An alternative measure and its application

Global markets seem to be increasingly integrated but there is no well-accepted measure of integration. We show that the correlation across markets is a poor measure; perfectly integrated markets can exhibit weak correlation. We derive a new integration measure based on the explanatory power of a multi-factor model and use it empirically to investigate recent trends in global integration. For most countries, there has been a marked increase in measured integration over the past three decades, but this is not indicated by correlations among country indexes.     

近期债券市场基本面分析与展望

该文认为,外需放缓导致国内经济增速放缓,年内通货膨胀将呈前高后低走势,1季度将成为通胀高点,加息概率依然较大,短期内债券市场将维持当前的震荡格局,但仍不失资金配置良机,相对而言,长期国债,短期融资券的投资价值较大。     

Stock market returns and annuitization

I investigate the strong negative relation between recent stock returns and the annuitization of retirement savings using a novel data set with over 100,000 actual payout decisions. After controlling for several standard explanations (e.g., wealth effects), I present evidence supporting naïve beliefs and extrapolation from past returns. The effect of recent returns on annuitization dramatically increases with age, confirming that the elderly rely most heavily on recent information. My results provide insights into how beliefs are formed in old age and have implications for the design of public policies seeking to promote annuitization.     

Stock market bubbles and anti-bubbles

Using a simple model of equity valuation, we define stock market bubbles and anti-bubbles as periods in which the dynamics of valuation is temporarily explosive. We identify a mechanism for the creation and destruction of bubbles and anti-bubbles that depends on the interaction between valuation and expected change in corporate profitability. Topically, we find that valuation dynamics are explosive in 2017, suggesting the possible formation of an equity bubble in the US.     

Stock market structure and volatility

The procedure for opening stocks on the NYSE appears to affectprice volatility. An analytical framework for assessing themagnitude of the structurally induced volatility is presented.The ratio of variance of open-to-open returns to close-to-closereturns is shown to be consistently greater than one for NYSEcommon stocks during the period 1982 through 1986. The greatervolatility at the open is not attributable to the way in whichpublic information is released since both the open-to-open returnand the close-to-close return span the same period of time.Instead, the greater volatility appears to be attributable toprivate information revealed in trading and to temporary pricedeviations induced by specialist and other traders. The impliedcost of immediacy at the open is significantly higher than atthe close. Other empirical evidence in this article documentsthe volume of trading at the open, the time delays between theexchange opening and the first transaction in a stock, the differencein daytime volatility versus overnight volatility, and the extendto which volatility is related to trading volume.     

Stock market liberalization and innovation

We investigate the effect of stock market liberalization on technological innovation. Using a sample of 20 economies that experience stock market liberalization, we find that these economies exhibit a higher level of innovation output after liberalization and that this effect is disproportionately stronger in more innovative industries. The relaxation of financial constraints, enhanced risk sharing between domestic and foreign investors, and improved corporate governance are three plausible channels that allow stock market liberalization to promote innovation. Finally, we show that technological innovation is a mechanism through which stock market liberalization affects productivity growth and therefore economic growth. Our paper provides new insights into the real effects of stock market liberalization on productivity growth and the economy.     

Firm opacity and financial market information asymmetry

Information asymmetry could exist between the firm and the investors as well as among investors. If the information asymmetry between the firm and the investors is very high, all investors are largely uninformed, so information asymmetry between investors should be low. At the other extreme, if all investors are fully informed about the firm, again the information asymmetry between investors should be low. This paper finds evidence supporting such a nonlinear relationship between firm-to-investor and investor-to-investor information asymmetry. The inter-investor information asymmetry increases, and then declines, as the information asymmetry between the firm and the investor increases.     

中国债券市场发展回顾与展望

改革开放30年来,中国债券市场已经发展成以银行间市场为主、交易所市场为辅,涵盖各类机构投资者和债券投资品种的多层次债券市场体系。文章介绍了中国债券市场的发展历程与目前的运行结构,并从推进市场创新、完善债券收益率曲线等方面对债券市场的发展前景进行了展望。     

2008年宏观经济及债券市场前景展望

该文分别从经济增长、资金面以及货币政策三个方面分析了宏观经济的前景,认为通货膨胀会见顶回落、债券市场的资金面和宏观货币政策会转为宽松;文章认为2008年宏观经济的增长将趋缓,但利率的由升转降以及资金面的宽松将使得债券市场得以起飞和发展。     

2009-2010年债券市场运行分析与展望

2009年,在适度宽松的货币政策和积极财政政策引导下,我国债券市场得以克服国际金融危机负面影响,继续保持稳定运行态势。各类证券发行量稳步增长,二级市场交易量温和放大,指数出现回调,债市与股市互动明显。展望2010年,在通胀预期和货币政策从紧预期影响下,市场利率有望上行,指数震荡幅度加大,商业性证券发行量继续增加,政府债券发行会有所控制。     

金融债券市场的创新和发展

近年来,我国银行间债券市场一直保持健康的发展势头,已形成具有交易规模较大、交易品种多样化和参与主体多元化等特征的市场体系。金融债券市场作为这一市场体系的重要组成部分,在人民银行等主管部门的积极推动下,通过不断创新金融债券产品类型、逐步完善市场管理制度、不断深化市场功能,见证并有力支持了银行间债券市场的健康发展。