Forecasts of US short-term interest rates: A flexible forecast combination approach

This paper develops a flexible approach to combine forecasts of future spot rates with forecasts from time-series models or macroeconomic variables. We find empirical evidence that, accounting for both regimes in interest rate dynamics, and combining forecasts from different models, helps improve the out-of-sample forecasting performance for US short-term rates. Imposing restrictions from the expectations hypothesis on the forecasting model are found to help at long forecasting horizons.     

Monetary policy regimes and the term structure of interest rates

US monetary policy is investigated using a regime-switching no-arbitrage term structure model that relies on inflation, output, and the short interest rate as factors. The model is complemented with a set of assumptions that allow the dynamics of the private sector to be separated from monetary policy. The monetary policy regimes cannot be estimated if the yield curve is ignored during estimation. Counterfactual analysis evaluates importance of regimes in policy and shocks for the great moderation. The low-volatility regime of exogenous shocks plays an important role. Monetary policy contributes by trading off asymmetric responses of output and inflation under different regimes.     

Predictions of short-term rates and the expectations hypothesis

This paper emphasizes that traditional tests of the EH are based on two assumptions: the expectations hypothesis (EH) per se and an assumption about the expectations generating process (EGP) for the short-term rate. Arguing that conventional tests of the EH need to assume EGPs that may be significantly at odds with the true EGP, we investigate this possibility by analyzing the out-of-sample predictive performances of several models for predicting interest rates, including a few models which assume that the EH holds in its functional form that relates long- to short-term yields. Using US riskless yield data for a 1970–2016 monthly sample and testing methods that take into account the parameter uncertainty, the null hypothesis of an equal predictive accuracy of each model relative to the random walk alternative is hardly ever rejected at intermediate and long horizons. This confirms that, at least at a practical level, the main difficulty with the EH is represented by the effective prediction of short-term rates. We discuss the relevance of these findings for central banks’ use of forward guidance.     

Reexamining the term structure of interest rates and the interwar demand for money

This paper reexamines whether the term structure of interest rates, rather than merely a single interest rate, should be included in the demand for money of the interwar era. In contrast to earlier work, we use cointegration techniques to model the equilibrium/error correction process, and find that a sufficiently rich dynamic model using a single interest rate has considerable explanatory power. Nevertheless, we conclude that the inclusion of the term structure may help to explain the turbulent monetary dynamics of the Depression era.     

Bond risk, bond return volatility, and the term structure of interest rates

This paper explores the time variation in the bond risk, as measured by the covariation of bond returns with stock returns and consumption growth, and in the volatility of bond returns. A robust stylized fact in empirical finance is that the spread between the yields on long- and short-term bonds forecasts future excess returns on bonds at varying horizons positively; in addition, the short-term nominal interest rate forecasts both the stock return volatility and the exchange rate volatility positively. This paper presents evidence that movements in both the short-term nominal interest rate and the yield spread are positively related to changes in the subsequent realized bond risk and bond return volatility. The yield spread appears to proxy for business conditions, while the short rate appears to proxy for inflation and economic uncertainty. A decomposition of bond betas into a real cash flow risk component and a discount rate risk component shows that yield spreads have offsetting effects in each component. A widening yield spread is correlated with a reduced cash-flow (or inflationary) risk for bonds, but it is also correlated with a larger discount rate risk for bonds. The short rate only forecasts the discount rate component of the bond beta.     

Forecasting the US term structure of interest rates using a macroeconomic smooth dynamic factor model

We extend the class of dynamic factor yield curve models in order to include macroeconomic factors. Our work benefits from recent developments in the dynamic factor literature related to the extraction of the common factors from a large panel of macroeconomic series and the estimation of the parameters in the model. We include these factors in a dynamic factor model for the yield curve, in which we model the salient structure of the yield curve by imposing smoothness restrictions on the yield factor loadings via cubic spline functions. We carry out a likelihood-based analysis in which we jointly consider a factor model for the yield curve, a factor model for the macroeconomic series, and their dynamic interactions with the latent dynamic factors. We illustrate the methodology by forecasting the U.S. term structure of interest rates. For this empirical study, we use a monthly time series panel of unsmoothed Fama–Bliss zero yields for treasuries of different maturities between 1970 and 2009, which we combine with a macro panel of 110 series over the same sample period. We show that the relationship between the macroeconomic factors and the yield curve data has an intuitive interpretation, and that there is interdependence between the yield and macroeconomic factors. Finally, we perform an extensive out-of-sample forecasting study. Our main conclusion is that macroeconomic variables can lead to more accurate yield curve forecasts.     

A tale of two yield curves: Modeling the joint term structure of dollar and euro interest rates

Modeling the joint term structure of interest rates in the United States and the European Union, the two largest economies in the world, is extremely important in international finance. In this article, we provide both theoretical and empirical analysis of multi-factor joint affine term structure models (ATSM) for dollar and euro interest rates. In particular, we provide a systematic classification of multi-factor joint ATSM similar to that of Dai and Singleton (2000). A principal component analysis of daily dollar and euro interest rates reveals four factors in the data. We estimate four-factor joint ATSM using the approximate maximum likelihood method of [A?t-Sahalia, 2002] and [A?t-Sahalia, forthcoming] and compare the in-sample and out-of-sample performances of these models using some of the latest nonparametric methods. We find that a new four-factor model with two common and two local factors captures the joint term structure dynamics in the US and the EU reasonably well.     

What do interest rates reveal about the functioning of real business cycle models?

This paper begins by documenting the extent to which the predictions of standard Real Business Cycle (RBC) models are incompatible with observed movements in real interest rates. The main finding of the paper is that extending the baseline model to include habit persistence in consumption and adjustment costs to capital significantly improves the model's empirical performance. In our evaluation of the model's performance, we take special care of estimating and testing predictions of the model using both moments drawn directly from the data and moments calculated after identifying shocks to the stochastic trend.     

The number of securities giving the maximum return in the presence of transaction costs

An essential element of any realistic investment portfolio selection is the consideration of transaction costs. Our purpose, in this paper, is to determine the maximum return and the corresponding number of securities to buy giving such return, whenever practical constraints features related to budget, buy-in thresholds, and transaction costs are taken into consideration. Dealing with the portfolio selection and optimization problem in the point of view of individual investors, we will arrive to get an analytic result, leading to a new and simple alternative solution to heuristic algorithms. Moreover, this result can be considered as another approach to integer optimization.     

Term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian dollar market

This paper investigates empirically the term structure of interest rates in the Singapore Asian Dollar Market. We consider extended versions of the ARCH-M model of Engle, Lilien, and Robins (1987). The extended models permit autocorrelation, skewness and leptokurtosis in the residuals. The robustness of the empirical tests with respect to alternative specifications of the ARCH process is examined. It turns out that there is significant time-varying term premium, and this conclusion is independent of the hypothesized ARCH model.     

Testing the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis in exchange rates under long-range dependence

This paper analyses the unbiasedness hypothesis between spot and forward volatility, using both the actual and the continuous path of realised volatility, and focusing on long-memory properties. For this purpose, we use daily realised volatility with jumps for the USD/EUR exchange rate negotiated in the FX market and employ fractional integration and cointegration techniques. Both series have long-range dependence, and so does the error correction term of their long-run relationship. Hence, deviations from equilibrium are highly persistent, and the effects of shocks affecting the long-run relationship dissipate very slowly. While for long-term contracts, there is some empirical evidence that the forward volatility unbiasedness hypothesis does not hold – and, thus, that forward implied volatility is a systematically downward-biased predictor of future spot volatility – for short-term contracts, the evidence is mixed.     

The effect of transaction costs, payment terms and power on the level of raw materials inventories

This paper proposes and tests an explanation for the level of raw materials inventories based on transaction cost economics theory and the role of power in a supply chain. According to this explanation, raw materials inventories are larger the higher a company's transaction costs and the lower its storage-related production and management costs. Factors that affect these costs are the company's vulnerability to opportunism, whether the input becomes more or less costly to store and manage as it moves through the supply chain, payment terms and the company's power in relation to its supplier. This explanation for the level of raw materials inventories was tested on a large sample of customer industries matched to their main supplier industries. Consistent with this theory, the empirical results show that companies hold larger raw materials inventories the more money their suppliers spend on research and development and the less important the customers are to their suppliers. These results are important because they indicate companies must consider a wider range of factors than previously thought necessary when establishing inventory policy.     

应收账款成因与对策的理论研究

企业的资产质量是评价一个企业的重要指标,也是企业生存发展的重要保证。应收账款是企业的一项流动性较差的资产,分析应收账款形成原因是治理应收账款的重要前提,传统观点主要从扩大销售提高市场占有率方面对应收账款进行分析。本文结合经济发展的新形势从全新的角度对应收账款进行了分析,并据此提出了治理对策,以供探讨。     

Bias in the estimation of the mean reversion parameter in continuous time models

It is well known that for continuous time models with a linear drift standard estimation methods yield biased estimators for the mean reversion parameter both in finite discrete samples and in large in-fill samples. In this paper, we obtain two expressions to approximate the bias of the least squares/maximum likelihood estimator of the mean reversion parameter in the Ornstein–Uhlenbeck process with a known long run mean when discretely sampled data are available. The first expression mimics the bias formula of Marriott and Pope (1954) for the discrete time model. Simulations show that this expression does not work satisfactorily when the speed of mean reversion is slow. Slow mean reversion corresponds to the near unit root situation and is empirically realistic for financial time series. An improvement is made in the second expression where a nonlinear correction term is included into the bias formula. It is shown that the nonlinear term is important in the near unit root situation. Simulations indicate that the second expression captures the magnitude, the curvature and the non-monotonicity of the actual bias better than the first expression.     

PPP may hold better than you think: Smooth breaks and non-linear mean reversion in real effective exchange rates

This paper revisits some key topics in the literature on purchasing power parity (PPP). The study applies a set of newly developed unit root tests, which account for both nonlinearity and multiple smooth temporary breaks in series, to the real effective exchange rates (REERs) of 23 developed countries. The results suggest that PPP generally holds for various currency-based real rates. There is evidence in favor of linear stationarity in REERs for highly integrated economies. The REERs of most other countries tend to have nonlinear adjustment toward large long-swing type mean changes around constant equilibrium values.     

线性和非线性视角下的费雪效应实证检验

基于2000年1月~2009年12月我国名义利率和通货膨胀率均为非平稳时间序列的事实,采用Johansen协整检验和门限协整(threshold cointegration)两种方法对我国是否存在费雪效应进行检验;实证发现,两种方法均支持我国存在弱费雪效应,但得出来的弱费雪效应程度却存在差别,前者认为我国通货膨胀率的变化只有6%反应到名义利率上面,而后者认为这个比例达到42.4%。     

基于息票剥离法的沪市国债利率期限结构实证分析

本文采用静态估计的息票剥离法,选取上海证券交易所国债价格数据进行了简单的实证分析,结果表明长期债券收益率高于短期债券收益率,符合预期理论和流动性理论,但是息票剥离法在剩余期限结构不合理的条件下,其估计结果存在一定误差.     

Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields

Despite powerful advances in yield curve modeling in the last 20 years, comparatively little attention has been paid to the key practical problem of forecasting the yield curve. In this paper we do so. We use neither the no-arbitrage approach nor the equilibrium approach. Instead, we use variations on the Nelson–Siegel exponential components framework to model the entire yield curve, period-by-period, as a three-dimensional parameter evolving dynamically. We show that the three time-varying parameters may be interpreted as factors corresponding to level, slope and curvature, and that they may be estimated with high efficiency. We propose and estimate autoregressive models for the factors, and we show that our models are consistent with a variety of stylized facts regarding the yield curve. We use our models to produce term-structure forecasts at both short and long horizons, with encouraging results. In particular, our forecasts appear much more accurate at long horizons than various standard benchmark forecasts.     

Excessive risk taking and the maturity structure of debt

This paper analyses the effect of short term debt on equityholders' risk taking decisions. We show that if short term debt limits the expropriation of debtholders, it also implies a lower leverage, which prevents the firm from increasing tax shields. We then examine the incentive of equityholders to increase the firm risk when debtholders hold the option to swap a perpetual coupon bond with short term debt. We find that this option mitigates equityholders' risk shifting incentives. Compared to standard short term debt, this restructuring option deters debtholders expropriation, it increases leverage and it reduces the loss in tax shields due to asset substitution.     

All in the family or public? Law and appropriative costs as determinants of ownership structure

We examine how the legal protection of outside shareholders and the appropriative costs that they induce influence the incentives for private firms to go public. A higher degree of protection of shareholders can increase the appropriative costs associated with the conflict between managers and shareholders. To counteract this effect the managers/owners increase the share of the firm they retain so that, overall, higher protection of outsiders increases the likelihood of going public. In addition, we examine how the share of funds raised used to finance the firm affects both appropriative costs and the decision to sell.For helpful comments we thank participants at the conference on Corporate Governance at UC Irvine (February 2002), seminar participants at the Athens University of Economics and Business, and worskshop participants on the New Organization of Labour at the 2002 CESifo summer Institute in Venice. Skaperdas gratefully acknowledges support from a grant for Research and Writing from the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation.