实际有效汇率对江苏省出口贸易的影响研究

文章引用了1994—2007年的相关数据，考察了在资本和技术要素不存在严重制约的条件下，人民币实际有效汇率和实际经济变量与江苏省出口贸易之间的关系。研究表明，人民币实际有效汇率与江苏省的出口贸易额呈正相关关系，相关系数为0．66．同时也受世界需求水平的较大影响。故江苏省在人民币实际有效汇率升值预期的情况下，应当充分利用当前自身在资金、技术、人才等方面的优势，不断提高产品的出口竞争力．通过调整出口商品结构，进而获得更多的比较利益。     

我国知识产权保护对进口贸易渠道的影响研究

一、前言 理论上很少有讨论不同水平的知识产权保护对贸易的影响．最早探讨知识产权保护强度与国际贸易之间关系的是Maskus和Penubarti（1995），他们运用Helpman—Kruagman垄断竞争模型．就知识产权保护对国际贸易的效应进行评估。他们以“市场垄断效应”和“市场扩张效应”来解释知识产权保护与国际贸易之间的关系。发达国家向发展中国家和地区出口中间品时．首先考虑的是市场因素。当发展中国家和地区加强知识产权保护时．     

产能利用率影响产业升级的传导途 径：技术创新的视角

以技术创新为视角,深入分析了产能过剩阻碍产业升级的传导机制,采用 2006-2015 年工业细分行业的面板数据进行了实证研究。结果显示：（1）产能过剩阻碍我国技术创新和产业升级。（2）产能利用率与产业升级之间呈“U”型关系,“门槛效应”明显。产能利用率适中的行业可通过提高产能利用率来促进产业升级,产能利用率较低或较高时,产业升级不明显甚至受到阻碍。（3）技术创新是产能过剩影响产业升级的传导途径,使得产能利用率与产业升级之间呈现明显的“U”型关系和“门槛效应”。在现代化经济体系构建和产业转型升级背景下,针对工业领域普遍存在的产能过剩和产业升级问题,提出了技术创新和政府引导的处理对策     

BDI剧烈波动可能重创相关行业

当BDI（波罗的海干散货运价指数）在去年底越过11000点的高位时，笔者曾经警告，以BDI为代表的运价指数达到的创纪录水平，已经渐渐偏离了反映货运需求和运力结构的初衷，滑向超出商品价格的不合理区间。而外界一种乐观的看法是，中国国内对于干散货的旺盛需求，足以弥补美国和其他国家经济可能的衰退：而世界造船产能向中国的转移，也使得国内造船业的景气周期明显长于全球水平。     

美国对外资银行的限制

美国是全球金融开放的最大施压者，但美国却不是金融开放的表率，无论名义开放度还是实际开放度，美国都处于发达国家的中下游水平。截止2005年底，美国共有各类外资银行442家（其中代理行45家，分行221家，股权超过25％的子行42家，埃奇法公司2家，代表处132家），占美国银行总数（2115家）的20％，外资银行在美国的总资产为18494．4亿美元，占美国商业银行总资产的21％。     

关于如何防范拜险企业的偿付危机问题

寿险企业是否有足够的偿付能力，取决于寿险企业的盈利水平，而寿险企业是否盈利，主要由“三差”决定，即费差、死差和利差，费差是指预定费用率与实际费用率的差异。预定费用率形成保费中的保费部分，若年度内保费收入中附加保费大于实际支出费用而有盈余、死差则是指计算保险公司的营业保险费使用的预定损失率（死亡率、伤残率）与实际损失率的差异。当实际损失率低于预定损失率时，保费中收取的预定死亡率保险金就会大于实际死亡保险金，形成死差盖，反之则为死差损。利差指是预定利率与实际利率的差异。人寿保险公司在测算营业保险费时，对资金的收益率预测，但这个预测值必然要与实际利率水平发生偏差。当资金的实际利率水平高于责任准备金按预定利率所产生的收益是，则形成利差益，反之则形成利差损。     

在华外资银行面临“转制”考题

就在外资银行预备拥抱人民币业务全面开放元年到来之际，中国银监会8月中下发的《外资银行管理条例》征求意见稿（下称“《征求意见稿》”）却“一石激起千层浪”，让在华外资银行绷紧了敏感的神经。     

银行服务抓“大”不放“小”

最近由零点研究咨询集团编制发布的《零点银行服务指数2006年度报告》指出：当我们进入银行大厅时．展现在我们面前的是。明亮的窗口”、“整洁的环境”．整体营业环境良好；但是．当您准备坐下来细细享受服务时．发现“座无虚席”．离开时更是黯然神伤，无人与您微笑告别。本次调查数据显示．在银行服务的36项指标中，“营业网点环境好”得分较高．在所有指标中居第二位（76．2分）；“办理业务完毕离开时的送别”表现最差（63．62分）．两者差的不是一分．两分．而是十几分。     

中国银行业金融创新的开发模式选择——独立开发还是与外资银行合作开发

中国金融体制改革目前陷入一种“系统自锁定状态”，要靠“外力”才能打破这种“系统自锁定状态”。而人世则为这种“外力”的引进提供了契机。本文采用了实物期权的决策方法分析了面对外资银行的进入，日趋激烈的竞争环境，中国银行业在金融创新方面如何同外资银行开展竞争．是独立开发还是与外资银行合作开发。     

对过剩产能“多栽花，不栽刺”

2015年以来，李克强总理在数次国务院常务会议与出访中反复强调要“推进国际产能合作”。值得注意的是，在总理的相关讲话中，找不到一个媒体报道常用的“过剩产能”、“对外输出（或转移）过剩产能”之类的提法。总理反复强调的是“推进国际产能合作”。     

Capital Structure and Bank Performance: Empirical Evidence from Ghana

The aim of this paper is to examine the impact of capital structure on profitability of commercial banks in Ghana. The study used a sample of 21 commercial banks over the period 2000–2014 using panel corrected standard errors and two‐stage least‐squares estimation approaches. The results show that bank capital structure measured as capital‐to‐asset ratio is a robust and positive driver of bank performance (profitability) measures (return on assets and net interest margin). Additionally, the results further indicate that share of customer demand deposit positively affects bank profitability. The positive relationship between the capital‐to‐asset ratio and performance provides support for the bank capitalization policy implemented by the Bank of Ghana. Also, the findings provide evidence in support of the recent upsurge in bank short‐term deposit mobilization strategies and promotions by commercial banks in the country to enhance their deposit base.     

央行运用冲销工具的成本和影响研究

央行票据冲销外汇占款的微观成本在2004—2010年为盈利,从国内角度来说,央行使用央行票据冲销流动性的微观成本高于存款准备金率的微观成本。央行票据和存款准备金率对宏观经济的影响利弊共存,但就冲销流动性的效果而言,央行票据使用更为灵活,存款准备金率的冲销力度更大。     

Financial Liberalization and Foreign Bank Entry on the Domestic Banking Performance in MENA Countries

Abstract: This study examines the impact of financial liberalization and foreign bank entry on the domestic banking sector from 1996 to 2007, and builds upon and expands the work of Lee (2002). We find that foreign bank entry, financial liberalization, ownership structure and degree of openness of foreign bank entry positively impact domestic banking system operating efficiency, capitalization, risk management, long‐term soundness, financial performance as well as economic and financial development. However, foreign bank entry is associated with reduced profit margins and increased operating costs of domestic banks in countries with less developed capital markets. Empirical evidence seems to support the argument that foreign bank presence leads to better allocation of capital and eliminates connected lending practices.     

利率市场化、存款保险制度与银行风险承担——基于市场约束的研究

市场约束作为巴塞尔协议Ⅱ三大支柱之一以及衡量金融深化的重要标准，是近年来相关研究的热点之一。而利率市场化等又是提高银行市场约束程度的实质性推动力量。基于此，文章分析了利率市场化进程、存款保险制度与市场约束之间的关系及其对银行风险承担的影响，并藉此评估了存款保险制度实施的政策影响及利率市场化在其中所起的作用。结果发现：（1）我国银行整体的市场约束能显著抑制其风险承担，但分类的结果则表明地方性银行的市场约束效应最明显，大型银行次之，外资银行则不显著；进而，在考虑利率市场化因素之后，除外资银行以外的市场约束效应均有所增强，尤其是，利率市场化对价格约束效应的作用要远强于其对数量约束效应的影响。（2）基于合成控制法的估计结果表明，存款保险制度通过市场约束对地方银行的影响更明显，且存款保险制度通过价格约束对银行风险承担的影响较之其通过数量约束的作用效果要更强。（3）综合而言，存款保险制度会增加利率市场化通过市场约束作用于银行风险承担的正向影响。文章的研究结果显示利率市场化推进以及存款保险制度实施的影响开始趋于明显，并使市场约束机制作用的发挥逐渐与国外相符，但仍然有进一步深化的空间。     

Impact of Foreign Bank Entry on the Performance of Chinese Banks

This study investigates how foreign bank/investor penetrations influence local bank performance in China. At the country level, foreign bank penetration is proxied by MacroFP, measured by the percentage of banks with foreign strategic investors （FSI） among total banks. At the bank level foreign bank penetration is proxied by MicroFP, measured by the percentage shareholding of FSl in a bank. When foreign bank penetration is proxied by MacroFP, it is found to improve the profitability of local banks but not to reduce costs. Next, when foreign bank penetration is proxied by MicroFP, it is found to affect neither profitability nor costs. In sum, the present study demonstrates that the opening-up policy is correct from a macro perspective, However, for banks that have introduced FSI, determining the reasons for improvements in performance being inhibited is more important than releasing more shares to foreign investors.     

The liquidity trap: Japan, 1996–2001 versus the United States, 1933–1940

Keynes’ “liquidity trap” rarely occurs. But when it does, it has a tremendously adverse effect on the economy concerned. Such was the case of the United States in the 1930s and now that of contemporary Japan. In a liquidity trap, monetary policy pushes the money interest rate to the zero level while expanding the money supply (M1) at a faster rate than nominal GDP. Conventional theory explains this phenomenon as the result of money demand that becomes infinitely interest-elastic at the zero rate, rendering ineffective the rapidly expanding money supply established by the monetary authorities.In this paper, we show that the liquidity trap is a multifaceted phenomenon not limited to the money market. It involves the bank loan market, the bank deposit market, and the bond market interacting together. Of these, the most important is the bank loan market and the least important is the bank deposit market, whose deposit supply becomes horizontal at the zero rate. They are met by relatively interest-inelastic bank loan demand and bank deposit demand. Hence, the causality is completely reversed from the conventional understanding.We give empirical evidence in support of our theory based on data from the United States, 1933–1940 and Japan, 1996–2001. Far apart in time and space, the two cases are remarkably alike and, hence, provide strong supporting evidence.     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

Financial Deregulation and the Bank Lending Channel in Developing Countries: The Case of Indonesia

The dominant role of commercial banks as a source of finance and the considerable asymmetry of information in financial markets in developing countries have raised an argument that the bank lending channel of monetary transmission mechanism would be very important in such countries. This study addresses the issue by investigating empirically whether there are differential effects of monetary policy on banks' balance sheets, and its implications to the existence of the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia, especially since the early 1980s when the government adopted a policy of financial deveculation. We find significant differences of balance sheet behaviour across bank classes in response to a change in monetary policy, consistent with the predictions of the bank lending view. We also found that because of access to foreign funds and the existence of bank loan commitment, the monetary policy was unable to constrain loan supply by the large (state) banks, indicating that the bank lending channel operates through smaller (non-state) banks.     

Bank lending and the business cycle: Does ownership matter in ASEAN countries?

We analyze the lending cyclicality of 213 ASEAN commercial banks over the period 2001–2015. The findings indicate that lending by private banks is procyclical while lending by state banks is countercyclical. Long-term liabilities also move countercyclically for state banks whereas funding for non-state banks in the form of deposit and long-term liabilities is procyclical. Greater lending cyclicality is observed for both private and state banks in Cambodia, Myanmar, Laos, and Vietnam (CMLV) compared to Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand, and Singapore (ASEAN-5). Lending of non-ASEAN based foreign banks shows greater procyclicality than that of domestic banks for the ASEAN-5 countries, although not for the CMLV countries. During the global financial crisis, lending by non-ASEAN based foreign banks contracted sharply even as lending by ASEAN based foreign banks was unaffected. Overall, our results confirm that bank ownership influences lending and funding sensitivity to economic fluctuations.     

Borrowed reserves and deposit variation: The risks to monetary policy

A theory of bank reserves is presented with emphasis on the behavior of borrowed reserves, the Federal Reserve's operating instrument. The theory explains the observed nonlinear relationship between borrowing and the spread between the federal funds rate and the discount rate. The theory shows that borrowed reserves are also a function of deposit variation. A shift in bankers' perceptions of deposit variation can cause borrowed reserves demand to shift so that the level of borrowing is not a reliable indicator of the degree of reserve pressure. Since borrowed reserves are used as the Federal Reserve's operating instrument, problems such as these pose substantial risks to the implementation of monetary policy.