The effects of wage compression on unemployment and on the intersectoral distribution of employment: a dynamic model

A two-sector economy is modeled in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. If the steady state emerging in the absence of a minimum wage exhibits unemployment, the imposition of a binding wage floor lowers employment in the service sector without affecting employment in manufacturing. The wage differential between the two sectors shrinks and the quality of the service improves, but unemployment increases. In contrast, if this steady state exhibits full employment, a binding (but relatively low) minimum wage may bring about a more egalitarian income distribution and upgrade the quality of jobs in the service sector, without creating unemployment.     

The wage scar from male youth unemployment

We utilise the National Child Development Survey to analyse the impact of youth unemployment upon the wage up to twenty years later. We find a large and significant wage penalty, even after controlling for education, region and a wealth of family and individual characteristics. Our estimates are robust to an instrumental variables technique, indicating that the relationship estimated between youth unemployment and the wage is causal. Our results suggest a scar from early unemployment in the magnitude of 13–21% at age 42. However, this penalty is lower, at 9–11%, if individuals avoid repeat exposure to unemployment.     

Reproducing low‐wage labour: capital accumulation,labour markets and young workers

Drawing on evidence from Greater Manchester, this article examines how structural changes in capital accumulation have created particular labour market outcomes, which have led to young people becoming a source of cheap labour for the growing low‐wage service economy. Greater Manchester has been selected as a case study because of the sectoral composition of its labour market and because levels of low pay for young workers are above the national low‐pay average of 40 per cent. The research reveals that it is necessary to move beyond sociological explanations that concentrate on the ‘essential youthfulness’ of young people and instead draw on analytical categories from political economy in order to understand the structural causes of young people's material circumstances.     

Product market integration,wage dispersion and unemployment

International product market integration enhances both the export possibility of supplying to foreign markets and the import threat of foreign firms penetrating into domestic markets. These mechanisms affect labour markets since they amount to increased job mobility. At the same time heterogeneity may increase since it is unlikely that the opportunities and threats are uniformly distributed across different groups/sectors. In a Ricardian trade model admitting heterogeneity in the labour market, it is shown that lower trade frictions are associated with aggregate welfare gains, increased trade and specialization, but also more dispersion in wages. Structural labour market problems caused by union market power are reduced while those caused by minimum (reservation) wages are strengthened.     

The non‐linear dynamics of output and unemployment in the U.S.

This paper studies the joint dynamics of U.S. output and unemployment rate in a non‐linear VAR model. The non‐linearity is introduced through a feedback variable that endogenously augments the output lags of the VAR in recessionary phases. Sufficient conditions for the ergodicity of the model, potentially applying to a larger class of threshold models, are provided. The linear specification is rejected in favour of our threshold VAR. However, in the estimation the feedback is found to be statistically significant only on unemployment, while it transmits to output through its cross‐correlation. This feedback effect from recessions generates important asymmetries in the propagation of shocks, a possible key to interpret the divergence in the measures of persistence in the literature. The regime‐dependent persistence also explains the finding that the feedback from recession exerts a positive effect on the long‐run growth rate of the economy, an empirical validation of the Schumpeterian macroeconomic theories. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The effect of the minimum wage on employment and hours

This study examines the effect of minimum wage increases on teen hours of work and employment using both state- and individual-level panel data in the US. The state-level results indicate that minimum wage increases may lower employment rates but do not adversely affect hours among either working teens or all teens. The individual-level results do not indicate that minimum wage increases have a significant negative effect on hours worked by low-wage teens who are likely to be affected by a minimum wage increase. The results suggest that low-wage teens are less likely to remain employed, relative to high-wage teens, when the minimum wage is raised. However, this adverse effect disappears when these low-wage teens are compared to other low-wage teens during periods when the minimum wage did not increase.     

Intra‐European labour migration and low‐wage competition—comparing the Danish and Swedish experiences across three sectors

The article compares how low‐wage competition and labour migration from EU11 Member States affect industrial relations and working conditions for natives and migrants in three sectors (transport, cleaning and agriculture) in Denmark and Sweden. The analysis shows how already vulnerable sectors with below‐average union density and collective agreements—especially geographical dispersed sectors—are strongly affected.     

Urban agglomeration effects and employment and wage gradients

When employment occurs at both central and non-central points, but firms have a preference to be near the center, the rent gradient will decline, and a wage gradient is necessary to compensate workers for more centrally located employment. Wage gradients and rent gradients are jointly determined. The relationship between wage offer functions and the equilibrium wage gradient is derived, the latter dependent on utility functions and commuting costs. This is illustrated with a two sector model incorporating agglomeration economies in the export sector. Numerical solution reveals how agglomeration economies affect wages, employment, and city size.     

Relative wage and unemployment changes in Poland: microeconometric evidence

We estimate changes in the Polish wage and unemployment structures between the years 1994 and 1998 in order to identify labour market characteristics associated with increasing and decreasing relative demand, as well as relative wage rigidities. The evidence shows that relative demand for workers with a low level of education decreased. Whereas relative wages for workers with basic vocational education also fell in this situation, relative wages of workers with only primary education did not, pointing to a relative wage rigidity for this group which faced an above-average unemployment risk throughout the observation period.     

Adjusting to the national minimum wage: constraints and incentives to change in six low‐paying sectors

Interest in the national minimum wage (NMW) includes not only its direct impact on employment and wages, but also its indirect impact on organisational performance resulting from a reorientation of employer behaviour with regard to employment practices and product market competition. Drawing on data from small firms in six low‐paying sectors, this article identifies three key constraints that have undermined the possible effect of the NMW in generating a virtuous cycle between employment practices and product market approach. These constraints relate to product market conditions, employer norms and labour market institutions (especially training).     

The compliance model of employment standards enforcement: an evidence‐based assessment of its efficacy in instances of wage theft

This article critically assesses the compliance model of employment standards enforcement through a study of monetary employment standards violations in Ontario, Canada. The findings suggest that, in contexts where changes to the organisation of work deepen insecurity for employees, models of enforcement that emphasise compliance over deterrence are unlikely to effectively prevent or remedy employment standards violations.     

The impact of the National Minimum Wage in low‐wage sectors: does the Earnings Top‐up Evaluation study add to our understanding?

Recent work investigating the possible impact of the introduction of the UK National Minimum Wage (NMW) in April 1999 has focused on the analysis of care homes, a sector particularly associated with low‐wage employment. In this article we attempt to add to these findings by utilising the Earnings Top‐up Evaluation (ETUE) survey which was carried out in 1996, 1997 and 1999, and aimed to over‐sample establishments operating in low‐wage sectors. Initially, we utilise the panel element of the ETUE to carry out a similar analysis to that adopted for the care homes data. However, in addition to this ‘establishment‐level’ analysis, we also utilise information on wages and employment in three non‐managerial skill groups, within this panel of establishments, to carry out an analysis at the level of the skill group. In this second set of analyses we are able to reject the null hypotheses of parameter insignificance, identifying a negative employment effect of the 1999 NMW, although this is only true of one of our indicators of NMW impact and its magnitude is small. In the conclusion to the article, we discuss our results in light of the findings from other similar studies.     

Incidence and duration of unemployment spells: Implications for the male–female wage differentials

We demonstrate in this paper that the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells affect the male–female gender wage differential. The results indicate that after controlling for sample selectivity bias in the wage equation, the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells account for about 14.2% and 39.6%, respectively, of the wage differential that exists between males and females. We observed that while the duration of unemployment accounts for a substantial portion of the wage differential in both the service (48.8%) and the manufacturing (17.0%) sectors, the impacts of the incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells variables on the wage differential are rather small in the service (0.07%) and the manufacturing (1.6%) sectors. Also, high incidence of unemployments is associated with low wages for males and females in all samples. In contrast, longer durations of unemployment spells tend to increase males’ wages and decrease females’ wages in the full and service sector samples. At the macro level, the results seem to suggest that promotion of gender wage equality should be associated with policies that will minimize the female's incidence of unemployment and duration of unemployment spells.     

Labour market segmentation and wage dynamics

The article contains results of a quantitative empirical investigation into the effects of labour market segmentation on wage dynamics in total industry as well as in several industrial branches in West Germany. By testing correlations between several indicators of earnings and the labour market it is shown that wage dynamics, in so far as they are determined by shop floor bargaining, can be explained at least as well and partly even better by indicators of certain partial labour markets than by conditions of the general labor market (i.e. the traditional Philipps approach).     

Equilibrium unemployment and wage formation with matching frictions and worker moral hazard

This paper combines the shirking and the matching approaches of equilibrium unemployment in order to endogenize the wage formation process as a function of labour market conditions. The steady-state equilibrium can take two forms depending on whether the no-shirking condition is binding or not. It is demonstrated that the efficiency wage approach is relevant when the unemployment rate is above a certain threshold. Furthermore, an efficiency wage is more likely when the disutility of effort is high, recruiting costs and workers' bargaining power are low, inspections are unlikely and the workers' productivity is weak.     

The distribution of changes in manufacturing employment and the impact of the minimum wage

That employment for workers in durable goods industries is more sensitive to the pace of economic activity than for non-durable goods employees is not a surprising result. What is noteworthy about the conclusions of this study, however, is the manner in which increases in the minimum wage have altered the distribution of employment and sensitivity to short-run changes in employment of production workers in manufacturing industries. By focusing on the distribution of employment and how that distribution changes over the cycle, estimates of some aspects of the impact of the minimum wage that have not previously been analyzed have been developed.The evidence indicates that increases in the minimum wage over the period 1947–1975 have had a significant impact on employment patterns. Minimum wage legislation has had the effect of decreasing the share of projected employment and increasing vulnerability to cyclical changes in employment for the group of workers most ‘marginal’ to the work force low-wage industry employees. Hence, as a result of increased minimum wages, low-wage industry employees are able to obtain fewer jobs during periods of normal employment growth and their jobs are less secure in the face of short-run employment variations.Minimum wage legislation has undoubtedly resulted in higher wages for some of the relatively-low-productivity workers who were able to obtain employment than these workers would have received in its absence. The cost in terms of lost employment opportunities and cyclical vulnerability of jobs, however, has apparently been borne most heavily by low-wage industry employees. The primary beneficiaries of the shifts in the pattern of employment shares occasioned by minimum wage increases were high-wage industry workers, particularly in the ordnance, food, tobacco, and petroleum industries.     

Regional unemployment in Spain: Disparities,business cycle and wage setting

The existence and persistence of regional disparities in the unemployment rate is a common problem of many European economies. However, in Spain, this situation exhibits a characteristic feature: a strong positive relationship with the business cycle. The analysis in this paper investigates the relationship between this distinguishing feature of the Spanish economy and changes in the regional wage-setting mechanism, and how this relationship has influenced the aggregate Spanish labour market performance in the recent past. The empirical finding of an important regional imitation effect in wage bargaining may explain both the persistence of disparities, and the positive relationship between regional unemployment dispersion and the business cycle. This result has a direct implication for employment policies, which must take into account the regional dimension of the unemployment problem.     

Search frictions,real wage rigidities and the optimal design of unemployment insurance

In this paper, we study the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme when the economy is subject to labor market imperfections characterized by real wage rigidities and search frictions. The US unemployment insurance financing is such that firms are taxed proportionately to their layoffs to finance unemployment benefits. Using DSGE methodology, we investigate how policy instruments should interact with labor market imperfections. It is shown that wage rigidities in a search and matching environment cause welfare costs, especially in the absence of an incentive-based unemployment insurance. This cost is mainly due to the distorting effect of wage rigidities which generate inefficient separations. We show that the optimal unemployment benefits financing scheme – corresponding to the Ramsey policy – offsets labor market imperfections and allows implementation of the Pareto allocation. The second-best allocation brings the economy close to the Ramsey allocation. The implementation of the optimal policies clearly highlights the role of labor market institutions for short-run stabilization.     

Socio‐economic distance and spatial patterns in unemployment

This paper examines the spatial patterns of unemployment in Chicago between 1980 and 1990. We study unemployment clustering with respect to different social and economic distance metrics that reflect the structure of agents' social networks. Specifically, we use physical distance, travel time, and differences in ethnic and occupational distribution between locations. Our goal is to determine whether our estimates of spatial dependence are consistent with models in which agents' employment status is affected by information exchanged locally within their social networks. We present non‐parametric estimates of correlation across Census tracts as a function of each distance metric as well as pairs of metrics, both for unemployment rate itself and after conditioning on a set of tract characteristics. Our results indicate that there is a strong positive and statistically significant degree of spatial dependence in the distribution of raw unemployment rates, for all our metrics. However, once we condition on a set of covariates, most of the spatial autocorrelation is eliminated, with the exception of physical and occupational distance. Racial and ethnic composition variables are the single most important factor in explaining the observed correlation patterns. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The relationship between wage growth and wage levels

We estimate the covariance between the permanent component of wages and a random coefficient on experience in models both with potential experience and with actual experience. Actual experience is allowed to be arbitrarily correlated with both the permanent component of wages and the random component on experience. We find no evidence that workers of higher ability experience faster wage growth. Our point estimates suggest that a worker with a one standard deviation higher level of permanent ability would have a return to annual potential experience that is 0.61 of a percentage point lower. The analogous point estimate for actual experience is 0.87 of a point lower. Contrary to the popular perception, wage growth among low‐skill workers appears to be at least as high as that for a medium‐skilled worker. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.