Positive welfare effects of trade barriers in a dynamic partial equilibrium model

We develop a simple two-region, cobweb-type dynamic partial equilibrium model to demonstrate the existence of optimal, possibly non-zero, trade barriers. A pure comparative statics analysis of our model suggests that a reduction of trade barriers, modeled as small but positive import tariffs, always enhances welfare. However, taking a dynamic perspective reveals that nonlinear trade interactions between two regions may generate endogenous price fluctuations which can hamper welfare. Finally, we allow special interest groups, such as consumers or producers from these two regions, to lobby for a particular level of trade barriers. Our model predicts that time-varying trade barriers may be another channel for market instability.     

The effects of wage compression on unemployment and on the intersectoral distribution of employment: a dynamic model

A two-sector economy is modeled in a dynamic general equilibrium framework. If the steady state emerging in the absence of a minimum wage exhibits unemployment, the imposition of a binding wage floor lowers employment in the service sector without affecting employment in manufacturing. The wage differential between the two sectors shrinks and the quality of the service improves, but unemployment increases. In contrast, if this steady state exhibits full employment, a binding (but relatively low) minimum wage may bring about a more egalitarian income distribution and upgrade the quality of jobs in the service sector, without creating unemployment.     

Empirical evidence on the sign of the slope of the hazard rate from unemployment from a fixed effects model

Empirical evidence on the sign of the slope of the hazard rate from unemployment is obtained from a fixed effects model based on the gamma distribution for unemployment duration. The data used are pairs of unemployment spells for adult males in the control and experimental groups of the Denver Income Maintenance Experiment. The sample selection issue involved in selecting the pair of spells used in the empirical work is discussed. The empirical results suggest that for these samples the hazard function is monotone decreasing and support the assumptions that the first two spells of unemployment are identically distributed and can be modelled using the gamma distribution.     

Logit and multinomial logit models for discrete-time event-history analysis: a causal analysis of interdependent discretestate processes

This paper introduces a new direction of methodological elaborations in event-history analysis based on discrete-time logit and multinomial logit models. The methodological elaborations address (1) simultaneous analysis of two-way transitions between two states, and (2) its extension for a causal analysis of two interdependent two-state processes. The former elaboration permits a more parsimonious and unambiguous expression for the effects of covariates on the dependent process than can be obtained by separate analyses of each direction of transition. The latter elaboration provides an extension for a log-linear causal analysis of 16-fold tables presenting two-wave-two-variable panel data, and relates the log-linear analysis to event-history analysis. An illustrative application, focusing on the dynamic relationship between premarital cohabitation and marijuana use, demonstrates the usefulness of the new models and methods.     

The effects of multiplier shifts in a hierarchical city-size model

Hierarchical city-size models based upon the tenets of central place theory have recently become an important research topic in urban-regional economics. It is the aim of this paper to examine one such model in a comparative statics framework. Some general policy considerations follow the analysis.     

A stochastic dynamic model of trade and growth: Convergence and diversification

There is a growing literature that studies the properties of models that combine international trade and neoclassical growth theory, but mostly in a deterministic setting. In this paper we introduce uncertainty in a dynamic Heckscher-Ohlin model and characterize the equilibrium of a small open economy in such an environment. We show that, when trade is balanced period-by-period, the per capita output and consumption of a small open economy converge to an invariant distribution that is independent of the initial wealth. Further, at the invariant distribution, there are periods in which the small economy diversifies. Numerical simulations show that the speed of convergence increases with the size of the shocks. In the limit, when there is no uncertainty, there is no convergence and countries may specialize permanently. The paper highlights the role of market incompleteness, as a result of the period-by-period trade balance, in this setup. Through an analytical example we also illustrate the importance of country specific risk in delivering our results.     

Urban amenities as determinants of selecting a logo type in Korea: the multinomial logit approach with the bootstrap sample

Each city in South Korea has its own city logo to advertise and showcase the distinctive regional assets, attractions, and activities of the city. A well-made city logo enables targeted groups to form a good image of both the city and its productions. This idealistic image is positively correlated to the local economy through encouragement of tourism activity. The logos of Korean cities can be classified into three types: a nature-anchored logo type; a history-anchored logo type; and a spirit-anchored logo type. The purpose of this study is to examine determinants for selecting a city logo type in the context of urban amenity assets. To achieve the purpose of the study, a multinomial logit regression model is used. The three logo types are nominal dependent variables, while literature-driven urban amenities, such as natural, historic, socio-economic and tourism factors, are explanatory variables.     

Voluntary organisations and marketisation: a dynamic of employment degradation

This article uses survey data to explore how far the terms and conditions of voluntary sector staff in Scotland are undergoing a process of reform against the backdrop of the sector's greater engagement in contracting for outsourced public services and a more challenging public expenditure environment. Its findings reveal that they have been undergoing a widespread process of diminution, which would appear to be becoming both deeper and broader. They further argue that this process has been intimately connected to a harsher funding environment and therefore raise the prospect of it intensifying further as the current British government's deficit reduction programme progresses.     

Price,wage and employment response to shocks: evidence from the WDN survey

We analyse the relative intensity and character of price vs. cost and wage vs. employment firm-level adjustment to cost-push shocks in the European System of Central Banks Wage Dynamics Network (WDN) survey data set. The results document several statistically significant and theoretically sensible relationships: price increases are less likely when product market competition is more intense, and more likely when collective wage agreements or employment protection legislation constrain firm-level reactions. We discuss how changes of such structural and institutional features of firms and of their environment may underlie the evolution of macroeconomic adjustment mechanisms in Europe.     

Election outcomes and economic conditions: An application of a logit model

In this paper the author examines the impact of macroeconomic conditions on the probability of the incumbent party winning a gubernatorial election. Using a sample of 265 gubernatorial elections held during the 1970–1988 period, the findings of this study indicate that the incumbent party’s probability of victory is not significantly affected by either state or national macroeconomic conditions. The author also finds that neither the unemployment rate nor per capita income growth affect the incumbent party’s probability of winning an election.     

The effects of trade exposure on technical efficiency: New evidence from the Turkish rubber industry

When a country's foreign trade regime becomes more open, international trade theory suggests that domestic firms face more competition and start to operate more efficiently to reduce their production costs. This proposition is empirically examined by using plant-level data from the Turkish rubber industry during a period of substantial trade liberalization: technical efficiency levels improved significantly when Turkey's trade regime shifted from a restrictive to a more liberalized one. Incumbent plants located closer to international markets improved technical efficiency more than the other plants. These findings suggest that the improvement in technical efficiency was due largely to trade liberalization.     

Some cumulative logit models for panel-data analysis: an application to a dynamic analysis of personal efficacy

This paper introduces novel cumulative logit models for the panel-data analysis of transitions among ordered states of a polytomous dependent variable. The models differ from conventional cumulative logit models in that they can distinguish between covariate effects on the odds of having an upward transition and covariate effects on the odds of having a downward transition in the ordered states of the dependent variable. The new models are applied to panel data on personal efficacy and are used to identify asymmetric patterns in the effects of divorce and unemployment on changes in the level of personal efficacy. The effects of the two events on increasing the odds of having a downward transition are shown to be greater than their effects on decreasing the odds of having an upward transition. Some distinct characteristics of the effects of each event are also reported.     

Industrial policy and employment in the UK: evidence from the pharmaceutical sector

Employment scholars have a longstanding interest in the potential for an active industrial policy to shift the UK economy to a high‐wage, high‐skill trajectory. This article addresses this topic by examining policy, performance and employment in the UK pharmaceutical sector, which has historically benefited from substantial government assistance. While weaknesses are apparent, overall the industrial policy context has supported the performance of the UK sector, underpinning a sizable number of highly skilled and paid jobs. The findings demonstrate the potential of an active industrial policy to facilitate a shift to a higher skills trajectory. Wider considerations of relevance and policy recommendations are discussed.     

Monitoring process quality in off-shore outsourcing: A model and findings from multi-country survey

We investigate how recent advances in information technology and telecommunications have led to real-time monitoring of processes at the site of the provider by a buyer located across the globe. We construct a game-theoretic model of the dynamics of the buyer–supplier interaction in the presence of moral hazard and incomplete contracting. We derive the Minimum Quality Threshold (MQT) below which the provider's output will certainly be inspected. Our findings show that the buyer can pick a level of monitoring and thereby force the provider to exceed the quality level of the MQT in output quality and avoid costly and wasteful inspection. Finally, our model explains why the production of processes that are complex and more prone to errors are actually monitored less by the buyers. We furnish the results of a comprehensive, multi-year, multi-country survey of the efficacy of monitoring in off-shore outsourcing projects and demonstrate strong empirical support for the findings of the model.     

The effect of management changes on winning in professional sports: Analysis using a dynamic lag adjustment model

This paper examines whether coaching and general manager (GM) changes among three professional sports leagues—the National Football League (NFL), the Major League Baseball (MLB), and the National Basketball Association (NBA)—effect on‐field performance. Our empirical methodology uses team‐level data by season and adapts a lag adjustment econometric approach designed to resolve several statistical challenges that arise both in general managerial settings and in sports settings. Our main finding is that coaching changes in the NFL boost the number of wins per season by between 0.5 and 1.2 in each of the first five seasons. Coaching changes have smaller, but still positive, impacts in the MLB and NBA. For all the three leagues, we find that GM changes have no discernable impact on performance. A separate cross‐sectional analysis suggests that those small impacts stem from coaches and GMs having extremely compressed talent distributions. The data indicate that coaches and GMs, en masse, are important, but changing the people who occupy those positions rarely seems to move teams to different locations on the performance distribution.     

Job regulation and the managerial challenge to trade unions: evidence from two union membership surveys

Data from a survey of union activists in twelve unions, and from a survey of members of the Communication Workers Union, are used to argue that changes in labour management and work organisation do not provide scope for social partnership at work, but do represent new difficulties for collective representation.     

Gender differences in job separation rates and employment stability: New evidence from employer-employee data

I analyze the job separation process to learn about gender differences in job separation rates and employment stability. An essential finding is that employer-employee data are required to identify gender differences in job separation probabilities because of labor market segregation. Failure to recognize this may potentially lead to statistical discrimination. Three important empirical results are obtained from the analysis. First, women have higher unconditional job separation probabilities. Second, there are no gender differences in job separation probabilities for employees working in similar workplaces. Finally, women's employment stability is relatively low because they are more likely to move from a job and into unemployment or out of the labor force, and less likely to make job-to-job transitions.     

Labour adjustment costs: Estimation of a dynamic discrete choice model using panel data for Greek manufacturing firms

In this paper we estimate a dynamic structural model of employment at firm level. Our dataset consists of a balanced panel of 2790 Greek manufacturing firms. The empirical evidence of this dataset stresses three important stylized facts: (a) there are periods in which firms decide not to change their labour input, (b) there are periods of large employment changes (lumpy nature of labour adjustment) and (c) the commonality is employment spikes to be followed by smooth and low employment growth periods. Following Cooper and Haltiwanger [Cooper, R.W. and Haltiwanger, J. “On the Nature of Capital Adjustment Costs”, Review of Economic Studies, 2006; 73(3); 611–633], we consider a dynamic discrete choice model of a general specification of adjustment costs including convex, non-convex and “disruption of production” components. We use a method of simulated moments procedure to estimate the structural parameters. Our results indicate considerable fixed costs in the Greek employment adjustment.     

A two-country dynamic model of international trade and endogenous growth: Multiple balanced growth paths and stability

We formulate a two-country endogenous growth model, which explain joint determination of long-run trade patterns and world growth rates. After providing the existence and local stability of the continuum of balanced growth paths, we show that main standard trade propositions hold under some modifications and that, subject to certain conditions concerning social and private rankings of factory intensities between production sectors, the higher is the growth rate, the smaller is the volume of international trade among balanced growth paths in the continuum.