我国房地产市场发展及调控问题探析

我国房地产市场商业化以来房价持续上涨,房价过高已成为社会各界包括政府部门普遍认同的突出问题。基于对我国房地产市场发展及调控政策历史沿革的分析．探究房价过高的深层原因,以期对后续调控政策有所裨益。     

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抑制房价过快上涨势头是今年宏观调控的一项重要任务。要加强对房地产市场和房价波动的监测，从实际出发制定和落实调控措施，促进房地产市场健康发展。当前房地产市场区域性、结构性问题比较突出．主要是房价上涨过快，市场过度需求，供给结构不够合理．部分地区房地产建设规模偏大等。     

【房地产】

有关部委出台措施遏制部分城市房价过快上涨 为进一步贯彻落实国务院关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的通知精神，国家有关部委近日分别出台措施，巩固房地产市场调控成果，促进房地产市场健康发展。     

市场化进程需要更多“温州客”

房地产市场调控成为上下关注的焦点问题，能否有效控制房价过快上涨，已经涉及到全社会绝大部分人的利益。在这个过程中，有一种思潮需要警惕，这就是把房价的过快上涨简单地归因于投资者的住房投资，其中最为典型的就是把“温州客”作为房价上涨的基本原因，并且形成对投资者的仇视心理。     

遏制房价飞涨是地方政府责任

<正>在日前召开的国务院常务会议上,温总理要求继续综合运用土地、金融、税收等手段,加强和改善对房地产市场的调控,遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的势头,可谓对症下药。去年来,房地产市场的快速发展,为我国经济的复苏做出了重要贡献,但是房价过快上涨,引发了群众对高房     

市长表态整治房价背后

在今年“两会”的政府工作报告中,相当篇幅涉及有关房地产方面内容.就目前国内房地产市场的矛盾来说，房价上涨过快是整个市场矛盾的核心,这几年来，政府对房地产市场宏观调控政策一直把稳定房价作为根本，关于房地产宏观调控政策也就围绕稳定房价作为.现在关键的问题是，政府会通过什么样的政策来抑制房地产市场价格上涨.     

房地产泡沫的判断与测度研究——以上海、南京、淮安为例

近年来国家出台了一系列房地产调控政策,有效地控制了房地产市场房价上涨速度过快、房价过高等问题,但是房地产的区域性特征使得调控效果在不同区域不同城市间出现了差异。以我国东部长三角的一二三线城市为例,通过三类城市的房地产泡沫测度进行对比分析得出一二线城市的房地产泡沫的严重性、波动性高于三线城市,同时一二线城市的房地产调控政策效果明显,三线城市调控效果具有滞后性的结论,据此提出了针对一二三线城市应采用差异化的调控策略。     

国土资源部：2009年房地产商赚了1万亿

日前，全国政协委员、央行副行长苏宁在回答关于对房地产市场的金融调控力度时的问题时表示，暂时不会出台新的政策。苏宁认为，投资性和投机性购房需求需要限制，因为这种需求很容易导致房价上涨，现阶段抑制这种需求有利于遏制房价过快上涨的趋势。     

当前我国住房价格上涨原因及对策

当前我国房地产市场存在着房价持续上涨、房价过高等问题,损害了民众合法的住房权益。加强对房地产市场的分析,对我国加强房地产市场调控,促进房价合理回归具有重要作用。     

运用财税杠杆调控房地产市场

2008年下半年起,全国各大城市商品房价格一路上扬,远远超出了普通居民的承受能力。国务院从2008年年底陆续出台房地产调控政策,特别是2010年出台了“国十条”,从“调结构、抑投机、控风险、明确责任”4个方面,正式确定楼市政策基调,表示政府遏制房价过快增长的决心和态度。为贯彻国务院调控房价精神,建设部、银监会等部门迅速出台政策,地方政府也纷纷出台政策响应。为进一步贯彻落实国务院关于坚决遏制部分城市房价过快上涨的精神,2010年9月国家有关部委又出台措施,巩固房地产市场调控成果,促进房地产市场健康发展。     

Monetary Policies versus Regulatory Policies: Management of Peer to Peer Market Interest Rates

This paper studies how monetary and regulatory policies manage peer to peer (P2P) interest rates. Based on selected representative monetary and regulatory policies, this paper finds that easy monetary policies reduce the demand for online loans, thus reducing the market's interest rates. Monetary policies may increase the supply of online loans through rational expectation channels or reduce the demand for online loans through bank risk‐taking channels. Normative market‐based regulatory policy enables the P2P market to return to rationality, eliminates high‐risk investors and borrowers, and subsequently reduces market interest rates. Risk disposal‐based regulatory policy reduces market supply to some extent, resulting in a small increase in interest rates. Both easy monetary policies and regulatory policies have a great impact on the normal platforms. The interest rate of high‐risk platforms is less affected by the relevant policies, which is evidence that such platforms do not behave in accordance with the financial rules in general. Monetary policies mainly affect platforms with interest rates in a relatively normal range, while regulatory policies mainly focus on platforms with abnormal interest rates.     

国际石油冲击对中国经济的影响——基于国内油价滞后调整框架下的研究

我国越来越依赖国际石油市场,但并不随其变化而及时调整国内油价.这种滞后调整将在国际石油冲击及其治理中扮演什么角色?采用AS-AD框架,我们发现,当国内油价滞后调整时,宏观经济管理当局可以前瞻性地执行调节政策,从而降低石油冲击的不利影响.因为国内油价滞后调整是一种价格黏性,而且能够缩短调节政策本身可能具有的时滞.我们的发现不同于对石油冲击的传统理解,但能够获得基于中美实证分析的支持,有助于增进对完善我国油价定价机制的理解.     

小麦最低收购价政策比较：以三个省为例

选取河南、江苏、山东3个小麦主产省。对2006年和2007年的小麦最低收购价政策执行情况、特点、政策效果和存在问题进行调查表明,该政策在小麦托市方面的效果明显,稳定了粮农预期.促进了小麦生产,也使得一批国有收购企业受益,但也增加了小麦的流通成本.提高了加工企业的成本,此外.它也改变了小麦市场的自然流向。该政策在定价、销售机制、配套政策、预案具体细节方面还需作进一步完善。应在坚持该政策的基础上,细化有关规定,允许和支持多元市场主体参与政策性收购,加强沟通协调,与直补政策、农资综合支出补贴等政策结合运用。     

The Optimal Monetary and Macroprudential Policies for the South African Economy

We investigate the optimal design and effectiveness of monetary and macroprudential policies in promoting macroeconomic (price) and financial stability for the South African economy. We develop a New Keynesian dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model featuring a housing market, a banking sector and the role of macroprudential and monetary policies. Based on the parameter estimates from the estimation, we conduct an optimal rule analysis and an efficient policy frontier analysis, and compare the dynamics of the model under different policy regimes. We find that a policy regime that combines a standard monetary policy rule and a macroprudential policy rule delivers a more stable economic system with price and financial stability. A policy regime that combines an augmented monetary policy (policy rate reacts to financial conditions) with macroprudential policy is better at attenuating the effects of financial shocks, but at a much higher cost of price instability. Our findings suggest that monetary policy should focus solely on its primary objective of price stability and let macroprudential policy facilitate financial stability on its own.     

农业补贴政策影响及调整方向研究

本文深入研究了农业补贴政策对粮食供给总量安全、粮食供给结构安全以及农户总收入水平的影响效果。基于构建的农业DSGE模型,从宏微观结合的多方位视角考察了多种农业补贴政策以及政府一般性服务支持政策对农业生产要素资本积累水平、农户投入行为决策、农业生产力水平以及农户总收入的影响效果和传导路径,并在此基础上结合宏观经济数据的真实反馈分析,全面考察了核心经济变量在农业补贴政策实施期间的真实影响效果。研究结果显示：（1）农业补贴政策能够有效刺激农户对农业生产要素投入水平的提高,深层激发和释放了农业生产力;（2）农业补贴政策能够有效保证农户基本经营收入水平,并显著增加农户可支配转移净收入水平,对保障农户基本总收入起重要作用;（3）最低收购价和临时收储等托市价格政策会刺激农产品价格呈现上升趋势,并不利于农业种植结构不平衡的调节。     

“十城千辆”示范工程政策与效果比较研究

文章以中国自“十城千辆”示范工程开展以来发展较为成功的几个重要城市：北京、上海、深圳等为研究对象,对比几个典型城市新能源公交车的现行政策,从技术和实际运营数量来研究和分析政策效果,在此基础上,讨论了油价对新能源汽车产业发展的影响以及政策的有效性问题。研究表明,政府的政策对中国新能源公交车的发展起到了重要作用并且汽油价格的上升也将为新能源公交车提供更广阔的空间,但政府政策在明确技术方向、探索商业模式以及政策的明晰程度等方面还有较大的提升空间。     

Loan-to-value policy in a bubble-creation economy

This paper provides a theoretical analysis of macroprudential policy in the form of loan-to-value (LTV) restrictions in a bubble-creation economy. Such policy measures have been used intensively in Asia to deal with credit and property price boom-bust cycles while the effectiveness remains unclear, especially the country-specific cases. We find that the effect on investment and size of bubbles depends on the degree of financial development. Specifically, restrictive LTV policies tend to be more effective in dampening asset-price bubbles in economies that have a high degree of financial depth. High (low) financial depth implies that bubbles originally crowd out (in) investment, so that implementation of LTV policies causes bubbles to decrease (remain unchanged). These might explain some mixed empirical results of LTV policy on dampening asset-price growth.     

Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment： Evidence from Chinese Micro Data

This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2011, we find that quantity‐oriented and price‐based monetary policies have heterogeneous impacts on corporate investment behavior, but the influence of monetary policies is constrained by the liquidity, inventory, size and asset–liability ratio of a firm. Firms with higher liquidity, lower inventory level and lower asset–liability ratios are less sensitive to the impact from two kinds of monetary policies. The larger the size of the firm, the less it is subject to influence from quantity‐oriented monetary policy; it responds more to price‐based monetary policy. The policy implication is that the monetary authorities should pay attention to the importance of policy‐making based on the monetary demand of microeconomic entities.     

“禁摩”政策对江门摩托车产业的影响分析

江门摩托车产业集群年产值100多亿元,是中国摩托车行业"三大板块"之一,在国内外具有较高的地位和影响力。近年来,全国已有一百多个城市纷纷实行"禁摩"政策。"禁摩"政策抑制了企业的销量,使其在农村市场展开价格战,阻碍着产业升级。面对"禁摩"不利影响,江门摩托车产业应开拓新市场,加强自主品牌建设,大力发展各种技术创新平台,行业协会也要加强与政府的沟通。     

Macroeconomic effects of macroprudential policies: Evidence from LTV and DTI policies in Korea

This study investigates the effects of loan-to-value (LTV) and debt-to-income (DTI) policies on macroeconomic variables such as commodity price index (CPI) and industrial production (IP) and financial variables such as house price and household bank loan in Korea by employing a structural vector autoregression (VAR) model. We use measures of LTV and DTI regulations that properly reflect changes in regulation coverage and intensity. Empirical results show that LTV and DTI shocks have significant effects not only on house price and household bank loan but also on CPI and IP, particularly when both policies are implemented together. The effects of DTI shocks are similar to those of monetary policy shocks, but LTV and DTI shocks tend to have a slower effect on CPI and IP but a faster effect on house price and household bank loan.