On the Equality of Real Interest Rates Across Borders in Integrated Capital Markets

The purpose in this note is first to review briefly the empirical results on the relationship between real interest rates and real exchange rates; this empirical literature provides little support for the hypothesis of Roll that expected real interest rates are equal in general. Our second aim is to discuss the theoretical conditions that have to be met for his hypothesis to hold.

International Convergence of Capital Market Interest Rates

This article investigates the extent of capital market interest rate convergence among six EU countries on the one hand, and a group of four countries with floating exchange rates - US, Germany, Japan, and Switzerland - on the other. We conclude that interest rate changes within the EU have been and still are converging gradually since 1980. Within the group of free-float currencies, the increase in convergence occurred abruptly around 1980, after which the extent of convergence remained roughly constant. Moreover, the presumed higher influence of US long-term interest rates on the level of German interest rates could not be detected.     

Integration of Long-Term Interest Rates: Empirical Evidence for G7 Countries

Abstract

This article investigates the fractional cointegration relationship between long-term interest rates of G7 countries over the period from 1990:01 to 2010:04 by estimating the cointegrating regressions for possible bivariate, trivariate and four-variate subsystems as well as the full system. The obtained results indicate that long-term interest rates are fractionally cointegrated for bivariate subsystems of Canada–France, Canada–Japan and Canada–UK and four-variate subsystem of Canada–USA–France–UK, implying integration.     

金融发展、收入分权与地方政府债务

本文基于金融发展与收入分权的联合视角,将其与地方政府债务纳入到统一的内生经济增长理论框架之下,探究了其对地方政府债务的影响.并利用我国2000-2018年30个省市的面板数据进行实证检验,研究发现金融发展导致地方政府债务增长,而收入分权则有利于地方政府债务的减少;从联合项来看,收入分权并未缓解金融发展导致的地方政府债务问题.考虑到内生性问题,本文通过广义矩估计(GMM)的方法以及逐项增加控制变量进行稳健性检验,结果依然稳健显著.根据本文结论,分别从金融发展、收入分权两个角度提出了缓解地方政府债务的政策建议.     

The Effects of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) on National Fiscal Sustainability

This paper presents a methodology to analyze the responsiveness of fiscal sustainability to the endogenous fiscal discipline that will be strengthened by the EMU. This discipline arises in response to the harmonization of tax systems, the loss of control of current and prospective money financing, and the deepening of financial market-based discipline. The model developed in this paper is a generalization of Blanchard's 1984 model, in which the interest rate is determined endogenously. This provides the framework to analyze more features of the linkage between sustainability and endogenous fiscal discipline. This paper also presents a new intratemporal fiscal sustainability index.     

存款负利率的成因及对策

文章对当前实际存款利率为负的现象进行了解释和分析。首先,揭示了负利率对居民收入分配、社会资源配置和经济发展方式等方面的不利影响;其次,从国际和国内双重经济环境出发,分析了当前和今后一段时间内央行维持负利率的原因;最后,从利用二次分配手段、扶持中小企业发展和掌控好人民币汇率的波动幅度三个方面,提出了在不加息条件下解决负利率问题的三种政策措施。     

Convergence crisis: economic crisis and convergence in the European Union

The success of the integration process of the new EU Member States is reflected by the convergence performance. Sustainable convergence assumes that potential growth rates of the less developed countries continuously exceed the dynamics of the potential output of the developed countries. However, the financial and economic crisis of 2008 has resulted in a fundamentally new situation as regards these issues. This paper considers real convergence, catch-up processes and in terms of these the main economic growth trends. The study focuses mainly on the potential growth trends. The recession has, however, affected the individual countries to different degrees. The study classified the Member States into four groups based on the initial circumstances and the vulnerability originating from them; these are ‘Developed’ countries and ‘Convergence’ countries, three groups of the latter are ‘Mediterranean’ countries, ‘Catch-up’ countries and ‘Vulnerable’ countries. Potential growth and the contribution of the individual growth factors might follow significantly different paths in these country groups. The convergence countries might face especially great challenges. Potential growth rate of the ‘Convergence’ countries—according to simulations—is expected to recover less in the mid-term, than that of the ‘Developed’ countries, i.e. convergence slows down, it might come to a halt or even divergence might occur in certain countries. It might result in a ‘Convergence Crisis’ particularly in certain ‘Mediterranean’ and ‘Vulnerable’ new Member States. Also, longer term simulations indicate that the European convergence processes might slow down and stop in certain countries. These trends may have significant effects on economic policies facilitating potential growth. We apply extensive quantitative analysis, production function and growth accounting approaches in the study.     

Fiscal Reconstruction and Local Interest Groups in Japan

This paper investigates the politicoeconomic properties of the fiscal reconstruction process in Japan by analyzing the dynamic game among local interest groups with concessions of region-specific privileges. Free-riding behavior of local interest groups brings numerous deficits. Our empirical evidence indicates that local privileges were powerful in the 1990s, which is the main reason fiscal reconstruction did not perform very well in the 1990s. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 492–511. Faculty of Economics, Keio University, and Graduate School of International Relations and Pacific Studies, University of California, San Diego; and Department of Economics, University of Tokyo, Hongo, Tokyo 113-0033, Japan, and Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office of Japan, 3-1-1 Kasumigaseki, Chiyoda-ku, Tokyo 100-8970, Japan. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: H41, F13, D62.     

我国房地产政府管制与利率调整

房地产市场与金融市场关系非常密切。文章结合近年来央行房地产利率调整,从不同的角度分析其对房地产市场的影响,得出利率对房地产业的影响效果有限,需要结合其他管制手段综合发挥作用。     

财政分权，省级官员特征与地方政府债务规模——基于2010-2014年省级政府数据的实证分析

政府债务规模和风险是一级政府关注的重点问题。从财政分权和省级官员特征两个维度,本文考察了地方政府债务规模的影响因素,并在此基础上进一步研究财政分权程度和省级官员特征对地方政府债务规模的交互影响作用。通过2010-2014年30个省级政府的实证数据进行混合OLS回归,研究发现财政分权程度越高,地方政府债务规模越小。省级官员的年龄过大或过小都会使地方政府债务规模的减小,同时具有企业工作背景的省长和省委书记也会抑制地方政府债务规模的扩张,并且财政分权和省级官员特征对地方政府债务规模的影响是相互促进的。据此提出建议,合理控制地方政府债务膨胀。     

利率结构、利率变化和利率政策的有效性

长期以来,人们一直在致力于寻找一套能够完全解释利率结构和变化的理论,但至今仍未能统一人们对利率的认识。基于利率理论演变的简要回顾,重点对中西方利率政策有效性的研究现状进行系统梳理,以期对我国利率政策有效性的理论研究和实践工作提供一些借鉴。     

The Association between Changes in Interest Rates,Earnings, and Equity Values*

Numerous studies have documented that stock returns are negatively related to changes in interest rates, but there has been little corroborating research on the information in interest‐rate changes about the fundamentals that the stock market prices. The negative correlation is often attributed to changes in the discount rate, a denominator effect in a valuation model. However, there may also be a numerator effect on the expected payoffs that are discounted. This paper shows that changes in interest rates are positively related to subsequent earnings, but the change in earnings is typically not large enough to cover the change in the required return. Hence, the net (numerator and denominator) effect on equity value is negative, consistent with the results of the research on interest rates and stock returns.     

The Categorization of Small Open Economies and the Response to Foreign Interest Rate Shocks: Based on Financial Integration and Net External Credit

To analyze precisely effects of foreign interest rate hike shocks, this paper categorizes small open economies into four kinds of types based on the net external credit (or debt) level and the financial integration level. The empirical result shows that responses of macroeconomic variables tend to differ substantially depending on the type of a small open economy. These findings imply that we need to consider the net external credit (or debt) level and the financial integration level of a small open economy when we predict the effect of a foreign interest rate hike shock.     

公司财务治理过程各利益主体的博弈研究

公司财务治理过程中各利益主体的财务目标都是自身利益最大化,由于各利益主体在公司财务治理过程中的参与程度不同,必然导致各利益主体之间的不合作博弈,而不合作博弈的结果是公司总体经济利益受损,各利益主体就无法实现其财务目标。文章旨在利用博弈论理论,探索各利益主体之间合作博弈的途径,最终实现公司总体经济利益最大化。     

Liberalizing Reforms and the European Union: Accession,Membership, and Convergence

The European Union (EU) may promote reforms to policies and institutions through at least two distinct mechanisms. First, accession to the EU requires countries to undertake reforms. Second, the EU common market may promote Tiebout jurisdictional competition. We empirically evaluate these two mechanisms using an unbalanced panel of up to 45 European countries during 1970–2010. We find that relationships between EU accession/membership and measures of policies/institutions are often statistically insignificant. Furthermore, when the estimated effects are statistically significant they are generally modest.     

金融摩擦下利率市场化改革对经济增长的影响研究

当前我国正面临经济增长放缓、流动性趋紧、利率居高不下的复杂局面,如何推进利率市场化改革以维护金融稳定、促进经济增长是重要的课题。文章构建包含金融摩擦因素的经济增长模型,并选用1980—2013年的数据进行实证检验。研究认为,利率变化对储蓄的影响是正向的,对投资的影响在2000年前后由正转负,与经济增长长期负相关,随着利率市场化改革的深入,利率的经济增长弹性呈增大趋势。未来利率市场化改革的重点,在短期应稳健审慎推进存款利率上限放开,在长期应优化金融市场结构畅通利率微观传导机制。     

“泛珠三角”区域合作中的利益冲突与政府协调

“泛珠三角”的经济合作,由于涉及多重利益主体,不同的体制安排及利益需求导致区域内诸多的利益冲突的存在。如何协调各方利益、促进区域经济协调发展,使得区域合作不留于形式是区域各方政府必须正视的问题。本文特就该地区存在的利益冲突进行了探讨,在分析原因的基础上提出政府协调的重要性。     

Financial Factors,Openness and the Natural Interest Rate in China

China's financial market has undergone significant changes since financial deleveraging commenced and regulatory supervision was tightened in 2017. Intensifying China–US trade tensions have further increased the uncertainties of external environments. In this article, we use a Bayesian approach instead of the standard maximum likelihood estimation in the Laubach–Williams model to estimate the natural interest rate by considering financial factors and open conditions, and analyze the relationships among the natural interest rate, economic activities and monetary policies. We find that technological and demographic factors are the main drivers of natural interest rates, while financial factors and open conditions also play important roles. In particular, shocks in the financial markets and the external economic environment in recent years are important reasons for the decline of China's natural interest rate. Therefore, it is necessary to strengthen research on the estimation of the natural interest rate to ensure China's transformation into more price‐based monetary policy and high‐quality development.     

Monetary and Fiscal Policy Design in the EMU: An Overview

The interaction of monetary and fiscal policies is a crucial issue in a highly integrated economic area such as the European Union. This paper analyzes the design of monetary and fiscal policies in the EMU. To do so, the paper starts with an overview of the most important aspects. Next, it analyzes monetary and fiscal policy interaction in a stylized model of a monetary union, in which monetary and fiscal policy design is modeled as a dynamic stabilization game. Macroeconomic policy making and adjustment are studied under alternative forms of cooperation and in both symmetric and asymmetric settings.